Timid Baserunning

While Gardy’s conservative managing style seems to pay off, year after year, I admit I get frustrated at his unwillingness to let his faster players try to steal second more often. Lots of good things can happen on stolen base attempts: the pitcher can be slow to the plate, the pitch can be hard to handle, the catcher can drop the ball and, most often, the throw to second can be offline. Even the best catchers throw out only 33% of potential base stealers, and that statistic includes the easier play at third base.
In the Twins’ first loss to the Yankees this year, they were down, 4-3, in the 8th inning when Nishi got an infield single with one out. To score him from first with the tying run, the Twins would have needed two more singles against All-Star closer Rafael Soriano. The TV announcers expected him to run, but he didn’t, until the count was 3-2, at which point Mauer flied to left, and he stayed put during Morneau’s at bat.
Then in the next inning, against uber-closer Mariano Rivera, Jason Kubel hit a two-out single and Jason Repko was brought in to pinch-run. Now tell me, what were the odds, historically, of the next two batters, #s 8 and 9 in the order, getting hits off Rivera? Undoubtedly less than the odds that Repko would be safe at second on a steal, and perhaps even get to third on a bad throw, from which it would take only one hit to tie the game.
In a way, this is similar to the 4th-and-1 situation from your own 40-yard line in football. Analysis has shown clearly that the odds favor going for a first down instead of punting, but the conservative call is traditional and safe. No one will fault the coach for making that call. Similarly, no one will fault Gardy for not sending the runner with two outs in the ninth; whereas if Repko goes and is thrown out, the manager will be questioned. But it is still the smarter play.