Mid-August Reflections

August 15, 2019: We mainly get dispatches from Iowa as the candidates jockey for position, striving to qualify for the third debate, or set of debates, coming next month. The mass shootings in El Paso and Dayton have raised the issue of gun control, giving the Democrats one more cause to cudgel Trump and Republicans with, and perhaps giving a boost to Beto O’Rourke as a spokesperson for his hometown. Biden continues to lead the polls but continues to seem an ineffective campaigner, with his latest gaffe – contrasting “poor” kids with “white” kids – sidelining his momentum once again. In fact, the word “gaffe” seems to be reserved exclusively for use with “Biden.” The latest litmus test for the candidates is whether to call for Trump’s impeachment. This mirrors the Democrats’ essential dilemma: is it too radical to try to impeach Trump now; or is it too spineless to hold off. Are you courting the moderate, middle-of-the-road voter, or are you trying to fire up the younger generation and liberal base?

In the aftermath of the second debate I am revising my view of at least two of the leading contenders. Initially, I thought Pete Buttigieg was simply too green and unknown to be a realistic nominee. But look how far he has come already from nothing – mayor of South Bend – to being the leading fundraiser, and think of how long we have to go before the convention.  There will be plenty of time and occasion for the electorate to get comfortable with his name and presence, and to date he appears to be the most reasonable and articulate one in the bunch. The American electorate has a recent history of voting against the “smarter” candidate, but Buttigieg carries his intelligence without the arrogance or aloofness of Gore and Kerry (see, also: Stevenson, Mondale, Dukakis, Hillary). Going down in my estimation while Pete goes up is Kamala Harris. I was impressed with her fighting ability and instincts, both in Senate hearings and the first debate. But now it seems that is her default mode, and she can come across as petty and vicious, which is neither pretty nor a recipe for uniting the Party and the country behind her. It is one thing to challenge Joe Biden as the front-runner, to see how he stands up; it is another to slam Tulsi Gabbard, who is adding valid points to the debate but is no threat. In fact, as much as I find unwieldy the field of 24 candidates, I do appreciate the contributions of several of the outliers – Gabbard, Inslee, Williamson, Hickenlooper, Bullock, among them. And Klobuchar continues to soldier along, saying or doing nothing outrageous or notable, offering herself as the uncontroversial Midwest Moderate, in case all else fails.