Twins Preview 2025

Rarely have I looked forward to a season with less enthusiasm and optimism than I have for the 2025 Twins. Their collapse at the end of last year is still bitter in my mouth and I wonder where to look for improvement. Their strategic plan for 2025 comes down to two propositions: 1. We expect everyone to be better than they were last year . 2. We expect everyone to be, if not healthy all season, at least healthier than they were last year. The problem with 1. is that these are not young players we are talking about. Most have been in the majors three or more years and have track records that so far aren’t trending up. The problem with 2. is that Royce Lewis already hurt himself just running to first base, Byron Buxton’s fragility is legendary, Carlos Correa is showing why the Giants and Mets opted out of deals for health concerns, and baseball players in general don’t get through a season uninjured anymore (why is another question). The Twins did nothing to upgrade the roster in the offseason and in fact lost two regulars, Max Kepler and Carlos Santana. Despite my pessimism, many commentators are picking the Twins to win their division, but mainly because their competition appears even weaker.

The Twins’ strength is their pitching, and good pitching should keep them in most games, which means the season should at least be entertaining. The designated ace, Pablo Lopez, can get anybody out when he has to but has the depressing tendency of giving up a big inning when he’s not focusing. He can beat anyone, but he’s not a stopper. The most reliable starter is Bailey Ober, with Joe Ryan just behind him. Both have fastballs that batters can’t catch up to, even though they’re not throwing in the high ’90s. Chris Paddack is a wild card, injured the last two years. Simeon Woods-Richardson must be better than he has shown, because he’s been awarded a spot in the rotation over the more promising Zebby Mathews and David Festa, both of whom we will see a lot of as the season goes on and injuries mount. The Twins claim to have the best bullpen in the league, which is true if you take everyone at their best. One thing I’ve learned about relievers, however, is that past performance is no guarantee of future success, and their career peaks tend to be short. I’m most worried about Jhoan Duran, the putative closer, who never looks relaxed or confident on the mound. For some reason his velocity went down last year, his breaking ball became hittable and his control wavered. There were very few clean innings when he came in, which made the ends of games nerve-wracking. Griffin Jax had the most success and could wind up closing, but he experienced bumps along the way. Beyond them are pitchers who could be very good but aren’t sure things, with Brock Stewart and Cole Sands leading the way. Unfortunately, the relief corps does not include a shut-down lefty, especially as manager Rocco Baldelli invariably brings in a southpaw to face a lefty hitter whenever he can, regardless of the hitter’s historical success against southpaws. Who will be the dependable relievers is a story to be told, with arms currently in the minor leagues undoubtedly having a role to play.

The Twins’ weaknesses are their hitting, defense and baserunning. Management made a point over the winter of saying, we’re changing our hitting philosophy, and indeed they fired all three hitting coaches. No more swing for the fences and not worry about strikeouts; now we will concentrate on making contact. From what I saw in spring training, the strikeouts are still coming. Partly that is due to the general improvement in pitching throughout baseball, but it still makes the game less fun to watch. In the outfield it’s not clear that either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner will be an improvement over Kepler, who kept failing to live up to his potential and had to be replaced. Wallner hits the ball as hard and far as anyone and should lead the team in home runs, but both he and Larnach can be struck out when needed. The same is true, but moreso, with Buxton, who has good streaks but can fan three times a game and is not someone you want at the plate in a clutch situation. Speaking of defense, Jose Miranda is a natural for DH, although with Lewis out he will have to man third base (where he’s at least better than at first). Correa is the Twins’ best all-around player, but he has yet to play with the Hall of Fame consistency he showed as an Astro. He will play solid shortstop and hit .275-.280, but he won’t scare anyone and doesn’t give the Twins the Bobby Witt Jr. or Jose Ramirez star power his contract calls for. The Twins did add two minimum-salary-type veterans: Harrison Bader should be a competent backup for Buxton and spell a corner outfielder when facing a tough lefty. Ty France had about the best spring of any Twin and, if lucky, could be the surprise at first that Santana was last year. The catching duo of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez should be no better, but no worse, than last year, ho-hum. Second base is the principal uncertainty, with Willi Castro, Eddie Julian and Brooks Lee all probably getting turns in the hope that one will overperform. The bottom line is, the Twins don’t have a dependable slugger, a dependable contact hitter, a dependable base stealer, a dependable clutch hitter or a dependable run producer. They will lose games because they won’t score enough runs to back up their pitchers. It’s especially noticeable when they are behind in the 9th inning and go out meekly.

I hope I’m wrong, but I expect too many 3-2 losses, where we just made one bad pitch or couldn’t get that one big hit. Play ball!