Twins Postseason Report

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The Twins ended the season with a 77-85 record, about where they were predicted to finish when the year began. Now comes the fun offseason, where everyone can play General Manager, dispose of players we’ve seen enough of and slot in roster spots for 2027. The Twins played into this game by calling up four of their top prospects in the final month, giving us a taste of what could be the future. Before I begin my autopsy, let me offer two caveats. As one commenter pointed out, most teams not in the playoff chase will call up four or five prospects in the later months of the season, and while many will stick, most will just be average players who won’t significantly affect the team’s fortunes. The second point is that everyone in baseball, it seems, gets injured; so any projection of the future must recognize that no one, however good, is likely to be available all year. This is certainly the case for the Twins’ prospects, all of whom missed substantial time in their Minor League careers and can’t be counted on playing full seasons to come.

Pitching If there is cause for optimism for ’27 it resides in the Twins’ starting rotation. Although Pablo Lopez, returning from injury, and Joe Ryan, if he’s not traded, are the two leaders based on salary, the potential staff ace is Taj Bradley. Almost as good since he came over from Baltimore is Dean Kremer, although you wonder why the Orioles let him go. Conor Prielipp was long considered the best hope from the farm system, and he has shown the same potential in the Bigs. Zebby Mathews had the Twins’ best month–5-0 in August–but hasn’t been consistent. Still, that’s five proven starters. Of course, the Twins needed 11 starters to get through the year. Mick Abel looked great before getting hurt; Kendry Rojas has purportedly the best stuff of anyone; and David Festa has also excelled in the Minors. All should be healthy for the start of next year, providing competition and depth. Then don’t go to sleep on Bailey Ober, who pitched the best single game for the Twins this summer and continues to bounce back from being counted out.

The lack of dependable relievers was the team’s Achilles heel for the season’s first half, but an almost total makeover in midseason gave Manager Shelton some comfort that if he got a lead and five or six good innings from the starter he could manage the rest of the way to a win. There are no sure things here, but some places to start. Yoendrys Gomez saved 22 straight games before suddenly becoming hittable. Will he be the closer again or will that role go to a committee? Shelton kept putting Andrew Morris in high-leverage situations and it didn’t always work out, but apparently he sees a future there. Jeff Hoffman has the best past and for awhile near the end gave me the most confidence. A.J. Minter was also reliable until the final weeks, but he’s a free agent and may be gone. Kody Funderburk keeps improving and will be given the lefthander’s role, especially as Taylor Rogers appears to be at career’s end. Tommy Nance is okay but could be improved upon. As usual, the Twins will bring in more potential relievers and see what spring training sorts out, but one or two surprise additions, a la Gomez this year, could make the relief staff quite respectable.

Hitting This is where the Twins need help, especially if they lose Ryan Jeffers, their regular number three hitter, to free agency. Trevor Larnach wasn’t great, but his .268 average was 30 points above others in the lineup, and at one point he was hitting .289. He will undoubtedly be released, as the Twins have three other lefthanded-hitting outfielders on the rise. Brooks Lee was better this year than last, and there’s a chance he could improve more, but the ceiling isn’t that high. Kody Clemens was arguably the Twins’ MVP, based on his clutch hitting and defensive play, but .240 and 27 homers will carry only so far. The one sure highlight is Luke Keaschall, who is exciting and has room to grow. Plug him in at leadoff and leave him there.

The big open question mark rests on the new blood: Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and, to a lesser extent, Alan Roden. Called up late in the year they each showed signs of offensive potential. They also struck out a lot. And they are young. Certainly Jenkins and Culpepper will be given a shot at a regular spot in the lineup. Will they perform at an above-average level? Will it happen so soon in their careers? That’s the hope and that could make the Twins contenders. If Byron Buxton comes back and the Twins want to keep Austin Martin as a righthanded bat, there won’t be room for everyone. This is why Larnach and Matt Wallner will be gone and Rodriguez, out of options, will have to greatly impress in the spring. That will be something to watch.

Then there are the two former mainstays who make you wonder: Buxton and Royce Lewis. As physically gifted as Buxton is, I won’t miss him when he’s gone, and is some respect he does more harm than good. He hits about zero in the clutch and strikes out way too much, while commanding a high spot in the batting order based on reputation. He is also injured half of every year, which contributes to a makeshift character in the roster. Lewis is also living on a reputation and gets a hit just when you think him hopeless. He doesn’t have the power numbers usually required for a first baseman and, like Buxton, is too easy to strike out when chips are down. It’s too bad Josh Bell can’t handle first base because his bat would fit well there and free up the DH spot for one of the extra outfielders. I’d like to see him back, but if history is any guide the Twins will find another one-year free agent (see Ty France, Carlos Santana) for one or both of these roles. This is a big need and will make a difference.

The Twins must think well of Alex Jackson because they kept him on the roster while not playing him for the last two months of the season, once Jeffers returned from the IL. We know they are locked into Victor Caratini, who is serviceable but not much more. One gets the impression that the Twins think they can get through 2027 with the tandem of Caratini and Jackson while their three exciting catching prospects work through the Minors and are ready by ’28. This won’t make or break the season.

Defense If the Twins’ defense was average I wouldn’t give it a separate heading, but they graded out near or at the bottom of the league, so there is a clear need, and chance, to improve.  Keaschall was terrible in center and at second, Lee and Larnach were below average at short and left, respectively (Wallner was at the bottom when he played right), neither Twins catcher could throw out a base stealer, and Lewis was learning to play first. The only plus defender was Clemens, regardless of where he played, although he wound up the regular second baseman. Jenkins and Rodriguez promise to improve defense in left (or wherever they’re slotted), and Keaschall will get more comfortable in right, although why he’s not put in left, where his poor arm would be less a liability, is a mystery. Lee is a better third baseman than shortstop and Culpepper seems competent at short with a great arm, although I wish he wouldn’t take the extra step before he throws. Having a settled lineup in the infield from the season’s start will have to help; and of course if Buxton is healthy he will be a plus in center, although he is no longer nonpareil there.

In sum, hope springs eternal as we wait till next year. The realistic observer is hoping that all the 23-year-olds will get in a full year of Major League experience, not get hurt and become a corps needing only, say, a catcher and a top reliever to not only win the division but play in a World Series in 2028 or 2029.

Infield Playing In

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With Phillies runners on second and third, one out, down 4-5 in the 8th inning, the Twins, as is their practice, brought the infield in for a potential play at the plate. Instead, the next batter hit a soft popup over first base, which a second baseman playing at normal depth probably would have caught.  Because he was “in,” however, the ball landed safely and the Phillies proceeded to score three runs en route to a 7-5 victory. I have no data to support my thesis, but my eyeball experience in watching Twins games in recent years has convinced me that “playing in” hurts more often than it helps.

Let’s break this down by first looking at the benefit of bringing the infielders closer to home. For this to succeed, the ball must be hit fairly hard directly at a fielder who then has to make an accurate throw home. If the runner on third is fast, the infielder will often hurry his throw, which not infrequently results in an off-target throw. Without being able to block the plate, the catcher has to pirouette to catch the throw then find the sliding runner. If the runner on third is slow, the infielder could probably throw him out on a hard-hit grounder without playing in. In the past, it was more common for teams to play only their corner infielders in, which offered the benefit of cutting off the run without the detriments I’m about to enumerate.

Even more common than the popup that falls is the soft line drive that clears the infield but would have been caught by a fielder in normal position. But the bigger issue is the ground ball that leaks through the infield because the infielder’s effective range has been reduced by some 20% (my rough estimate). If I had the numbers–and I’m sure they exist on some computer–we could compare the number of balls that become hits because the infield is in versus the number of runs saved, either by outs at the plate or runners staying on third, but I would add one more variable that tips the equation my way, I’m sure.

When there are runners on both third and second, playing in doesn’t just risk giving up a run, it can result in two runs scoring. If I play the infield back, there is not only the opportunity to catch the popup and line drive, there is a better chance of giving up only one run in the inning. The ground ball through a drawn-in infield that scores two runs is particularly demoralizing to me as a fan; I can only imagine what it does to the players, especially the pitcher who has induced what would normally be a ground-ball out. Of course, there are situations that override my statistical analysis: if the game is tied in the late innings and one run is likely to be decisive, it won’t matter if two score instead; so forget the odds and gamble that you’ll get a ground ball that goes right to one of your drawn-in infielders. But the Twins, so far as I can tell, aren’t differentiating by situation: they automatically bring the infield in and more often than not get burnt.

Twins ’26

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September 28: As meaningless as it was, I was delighted to see the Twins close the season with a victory over the Rangers, and end it with their second series win in a row. Most encouragingly, they got good starts from Bradley, Ryan and Kremer to build hope for next year’s starting rotation. I’ll add more thoughts in my Twins Post-Season Report elsewhere on this website.

September 24: Walker Jenkins’s seven-game hitting streak is evidence of what a bad judge of talent I am. When he first came up he struck out swinging and looking; his average fell below .100 despite a home run off a position player. Then all of a sudden his swing started connecting–at one point getting seven hits in a row–and at 21 he now looks like the Twins’ centerfielder for years to come, although Buxton’s contract will limit him to a corner outfield position when Buck is not injured. Conversely, I fell in love with Ema Rodriguez based on his first two or three games, when he hit everything hard. I had penciled him for leftfield, moving Keaschall to utility outfielder/infielder (his bat is needed). The Rodriguez went 1-for-21 and the future looked different. The paper keeps mentioning that he is “out of options.” What that means for the Twins’ ability to use him next year isn’t clear to me. The Twins have also been playing Ben Ross at shortstop in Culpepper’s absence. Is this just to give him a taste of the Bigs, or showcase him as trade bait? I do think their recent use of Aaron Sabato at first is just a reward for being a loyal Minor Leaguer for the last few years, although first base seems like the most open position on the 2027 roster (unless Ryan Jeffers departs). In any case, it has been fun watching the new faces get their feet wet and offer promise.

September 9: The Twins last night played the kind of game I am hoping for at this time of year. It is only the Strib that keeps trumpeting how far out of the playoff picture the Twins are–everyone else knows that ship has sailed. What we care about now is seeing if they can be competitive with the current roster and predicting who should be on the team next year. Pitching is the key, and Dean Kremer threw a creditable 5 innings, allowing two runs. From there, the Twins ‘A’ relievers put up four scoreless innings, securing a 3-2 win. Minter, Morris, Hoffman and Gomez were more than solid and give the Twins a solid core to build on next season. The ‘B’ relievers did not do as well the day before or today, turning potentially close games into blowouts. Rogers, Nance, Acton, Funderburk, Adams have all had good moments but none enough to secure a spot on next year’s roster. The way Shelton keeps putting out Adams and Funderburk makes me think he sees something more than I do, so let’s call them possibles. Kody Clemens won the game with a two-run homer. He is the Twins’ MVP, mostly due to his clutch production but secondarily for his defensive work at multiple positions. Keaschall is coming into his own, although he hasn’t the arm for rightfield. I expect him to move to left when Larnach is jettisoned. Brooks Lee has surprised at third, and the Twins will try to keep Ryan Jeffers, although bidding will be high. Kaelen Culpepper has earned shortstop. Walker Jenkins has yet to figure out Major League pitching, but he’s 21 and the Twins have invested high hopes in him, so I’m hoping too. Everyone else is expendable, and that includes Royce Lewis and Josh Bell, although he leads the team in rbi by a lot. We’re stuck with Buxton for another year. Presumably Jenkins can fill in when he’s injured and play rightfield when he’s not. The Twins are good for starting pitchers; they should spend the offseason looking for some offensive pop, especially if they can’t keep Jeffers.

August 28: For the fourth (or fifth?) time I can officially declare the Twins’ playoff pursuit over. Being swept by the Padres pushed them to the brink, but losing two of three to the lowly A’s in not particularly close fashion was the coup de grace. In addition to the mathematical difficulty and the number of better teams with whom they must compete, the fragility of their pitching, which had been a source of optimism, makes the outlook bleak. Conor Prielipp, the fifth starter, may develop into a dependable starter, but at this point he can’t put six good innings together and he’s past the point the Twins planned to use him, just because there’s no one else in the Minors to call up. It’s already fun, though, to look ahead to 2027 (assuming no strike/lockout) when the Twins theoretically could have Lopez and Ryan back from injury, Bradley and Matthews increasingly confident and Dean Kremer, who has become the stopper in his short time with the team. Behind them–because we know there will be injuries–Prielipp, David Festa and Kendry Rojas could start to realize their potential. And oh, I forgot Bailey Ober, who continues to mystify opponents and critics with an 89-mph fastball.
The bullpen had been a bright spot before last week, when rookie Andrew Morris had his three worst outings and Koendrys Gomez coughed up 4 runs in a non-save situation. On the other hand, Jeff Hoffman had his best outing in the A’s finale, albeit only one batter. In any event, they will be starting next year with a half-dozen relievers who have shown they can succeed at the Major League level, a huge contrast from this year.
Two other developments are promising: Kaelen Culpepper is hitting and fielding well enough to have solidified the shortstop position for the foreseeable future. Second, the Twins today called up Walker Jenkins, their hope for the future. It’s not clear how they’ll handle Buxton once he’s healthy; maybe use Jenkins in rightfield until Buxton gets hurt or is even more ineffective. One thing became clear in the A’s series: Keaschall cannot play centerfield and probably shouldn’t be in right, either. I’d platoon him in right with Larnach (who broke out of his slump Wednesday). Roden? Martin? It’s better to have too many bodies than too few.

August 16: The Twins were schooled by the Phillies, swept even after leading the last game 5-0 in the 6th inning. Maybe now we can dispense with the “only a half-game out of the third wild card spot” chatter. This was never remotely realistic. Although it seems like a game or two is not that much to overcome, the reality was that the Twins not only had to catch the team holding the third wild card spot (the Orioles), they had to play better than all the other teams that were also within a game or two of that spot: the Blue Jays, Tigers, Guardians and Rangers. Conceivable, but not likely.
Just as the Twins seem to have plugged some of the holes in their bullpen, the starters have gone leaky all together. Dean Kremer was the bright spot, but he fell apart the third time through the lineup today, transforming a 5-0 walk in the park into a 5-4 nail biter that you just knew would not go Minnesota’s way. So I am resigned to long-term scouting. My first reflection is that Culpepper is not as bad as I feared, as he settles in. Today’s proof was his broken-bat single in the 9th off Jhoan Duran in a nine-pitch at bat. By contrast, Jeffers and Buxton quickly struck out after him. My second reflection is that Buxton is back where he was a few seasons ago, wildly swinging at two-strike pitches low and outside. I think today he struck out three times and hit into a doubleplay and has that maddening “I-don’t-care-it-must-be-a-fluke” look of unconcern as he saunters back to the dugout. I’m sure he leads the team in runners-left-in-scoring-position, and yet because of who he is the manager has to bat him at or near the top of the order. Lewis somehow gets his hits, although his swing is similarly undisciplined. Lee and Clemens, who gave the Twins their lead today with home runs, keep getting better. Keaschall is scrappy–I like that–but remains a defensive liability wherever he plays.
With six games coming up against the Braves and Padres, the Twins’ season could be over before the end of August. One hopes that that will give Walker Jenkins, and maybe others, a taste of the Big Leagues and give the fans some hope for the future.

August 9: There’s no need to apologize for losing two of three to the Brewers, the team with the league’s best record, especially in Milwaukee by one run. Today the Twins probably would have won but for two outrageous catches against the wall by the Brewers’ rookie outfielder; and scoring three runs off Jacob Misiorowski was a coup in itself. The Twins are playing competitive baseball, which is all I ask for this year.
A week after the trading deadline is too soon to evaluate the Twins’ moves, but the mere fact that they made additions without losing anyone gave a lift to the team and the fan base. Already the trade for Dean Kremer from the O’s is paying dividends, as Joe Ryan (see 7/28 post) has gone on the IL and Kremer gives them a legitimate starter they otherwise wouldn’t have had. Acquiring A.J. Minter allowed them to return Kendry Rojas to St. Paul. He clearly needs more work than he would get in the Bigs and hasn’t shown the maturity or control that would be needed in September, if those games prove important. Jeff Hoffman has yet to prove his worth. He is more battle-tested than Anderson, whom he replaced, but Toronto seemed to think he was on the downslope of his career. Tommy Nance, picked up pre-deadline from the Red Sox has settled in nicely. In all, Shelton has to feel good about his options whenever the Twins find themselves with a lead in the 6th inning or later.
The other addition to the roster is the heralded rookie shortstop Kaelen Culpepper. His home run in his second Major League at bat deflected attention from the three misplays he made at short. In his second start he was HBP twice–a Minnesota record–so we don’t know how much was due to first-game nerves. He looks scared when shown on camera, which of course can be overcome, but I’d rather see the cockiness displayed by Luke Keaschall, who messes up more than any Twin but still swaggers.

July 31: Tom Pohlad says the Twins will be “buyers” at trading deadline, while there is strong sentiment to “keep the guys together.” This raises the question: if you add someone, whom will you subtract without hurting the chemistry? While for most of the year it was obvious that the Twins needed to upgrade their relief corps, for the last month the relievers have been the stong suit of the team. Funderburk and Adams, who were shuttle regulars to St. Paul, have been solid. Newcomers Nance and Anderson have been revelations. Morris and Gomez have settled in as game-closers. Even Taylor Rogers has had recent success, although he makes me nervous. Any reliever the Twins acquire will be a gamble. The clearest need is for a starter: the Twins don’t have a regular fifth starter and each of the top four has been vulnerable to injury and bad days. That’s where I would look.  Oh, and an outfielder who can hit lefthanded pitching would be nice. And could play centerfield when Buxton is hurt. For sufficient consideration I would trade Bell, Roden or Martin but none of the three catchers. We shall see.

July 31: One side interest (as we approach trading deadline) is watching how former Twins are doing with their new teams and speculating whether Minnesota made a mistake in letting them go. Max Kepler, for one, always seemed to underperform, although for a few years the infield shift was part of the problem. Tired of waiting and not wanting to pay a veteran’s salary, the Twins cut ties. After a year of marginal success with the Phillies, Kepler has wound up in Arizona, where his .250 average isn’t sensational but much better than the Twins are getting this year from Matt Wallner (in the minors) and Alan Roden (hitting .189). Ty France hit and fielded well as the Twins’ rent-a-first-baseman last year and has continued to perform for the Padres, currently hitting .282. His place was taken by Josh Bell, whose play at first base has reduced him to DH. The ex-Twin I miss the most is Luis Arraez, who is on track to win a batting title with his fourth different team! Of course, the Twins received value – pitcher Pablo Lopez – so it’s not fair to mourn that loss. The most unequivocal mistake from last August’s purge was trading Louie Varland to Toronto, where he has become the American League’s top relief pitcher, with 23 saves so far. The fact that he is from Minnesota and was under team control for three more years adds to the hurt, as does the failure of Roden to produce in exchange. Maybe Kendry Rojas will develop into a solid starter, but it hasn’t happened yet. I wish nothing but the best for Jhoan Duran, who has become a star for the Phillies. I worried about his future with the Twins, and they seem to have replaced him with Yoendrys Gomez. The player who prompted this reflection, however, is Randy Dobnak. He was discarded like a used Kleenex but hung around the Twins’ system due to a five-year contract they improvidently gave him when he started a season strong several years ago. He was, I thought, simply a throw-in last year when the Twins sent him to Detroit with Chris Paddack for a catching prospect. He didn’t stick with the Tigers, nor with the Mariners but recently found a home in Kansas City. With a chance to pitch against Minnesota, Dobnak threw seven shutout innings for his first Major League win since 2021. Meanwhile, the Twins are scuffling to find a fifth starter.

July 28: The Twins came home after two good wins in Cleveland to face the team with the league’s worst record and a pitcher with the league’s fifth highest ERA. So what would you expect? Not a shutout loss, but that’s what transpired. Which is why “entertaining” is all I’m looking for this year.
After giving up a record six home runs, Joe Ryan was pushed back from his next start and was diagnosed with “arm fatigue.” We’ll see tomorrow if this is only a temporary setback. Almost invariably if a Twins pitcher has a bad outing he winds up on the IL. It happened notably with Bailey Ober earlier this year and today we see that Cole Sands is lost for the year after giving up five runs with only one out in his first appearance of the year. I had hopes for Sands but the wisest commenter on the Strib website (BallMom) had nothing good to say about him. In a way, he was a reminder of the old Twins bullpen, and I’m quite enjoying the bunch of no-names who have taken over.

July 23: So much of the speculation on whether the Twins will be buyers or sellers at the trading deadline misses an essential point. Major League baseball in general, and the Twins in particular, are in the entertainment business. Yes, it would be nice to create long-term value like a corporation would, but more important is the product you put on the field today. Give your fans something to root for, day in and day out, something to take their minds off the day’s problems for the summer. Trading Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach or even Josh Bell (the commonly bruited subjects) would not give the fans anyone they would root for, or enjoying watching, more. Quite the opposite, in fact: it would discourage interest, as most fans have become attached to this bunch that has way overachieved preseason expectations.
And what could the Twins reasonably expect to receive in return? They won’t get a starting pitcher as good as Ryan. It might be hard to even get a Major League-ready starter, and since the Twins already have a hole in their rotation, where would that leave them? The argument for trading Jeffers is he will be a free agent at year’s end, but that is also the reason he might not bring much in return: what will another team give up for only three months of his service? He is more expendable than Ryan because the Twins have two capable catchers in Caratini and Jackson. They already have Caratini signed for 2027 and they have to hold onto Jackson (who has the highest BA on the team) or lose him to waivers. Carrying three catchers is not ideal, but they each have value, and trading Jeffers for not much would send the wrong signal to players and fans alike. The argument for trading Larnach is he may be playing over his head and he is 30 so probably won’t be this good again. But he is their best hitter and best clutch hitter, as he showed in winning the last two games against Cleveland. He’s done everything asked of him without complaint (does he even have emotions?) and is integral to this team. Teams looking for prospects or power won’t be interested. Let’s keep him. Bell leads the team in rbi, but I’m willing to trade. He is strikeout-prone and adds no defense or speed. Trading him would open the DH spot for one of the extra catchers or Buxton on his regular days off. But again, it’s hard to see that you’d receive much more than a Minor Leaguer who might or might not ever make the team.
And what do the Twins need in a trade? Yes, a starting pitcher, but everyone needs that, so it’s unlikely Minnesota would find one. Relievers, as we’ve seen, are a different matter. Teams seem to be releasing them all the time, and the Twins have already fortified their ranks from that trough. In fact, it’s quite impressive how the Twins have patched together a respectable bullpen, as shown in the last two must-win victories against the Guardians in Cleveland. Yesterday Kody Funderburk and Travis Adams combined for three shutout innings, and Adams got credit for the win. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez have come from nowhere to become legitimate 8th- and 9th-inning stoppers, and although they each gave up a meaningless run in yesterday’s 10-6 win, they held the fort when pitching in a 1-1 game today. The Twins then won when Nance, Rogers and Anderson, two of whom weren’t even on the team two weeks ago, shut out Cleveland and its ghost runner in three extra innings. If they’ve got enough to keep Eric Orze in St. Paul, with Cole Sands due to return, they might have enough to keep being entertaining. And that’s enough for me this year.

PS: Two footnotes from the Twins’ very surprising 3-1 win over the Guardians. Cleveland pitcher Gavin Williams was rightly lauded for throwing a rare “immaculate inning,” but some of the credit goes to the Minnesota hitters, as only two of Williams’s nine strikes were actually in the strike zone. Second, in the 12th inning with two outs and a runner stuck on second, Cleveland manager Steven Vogt chose to walk useless-in-the-clutch Royce Lewis to face Trevor Larnach, the Twins’ most dangerous hitter, because it provided a left-on-left matchup. Larnach’s subsequent game-winning single was less shocking than Vogt’s decision.

July 20: A retrospective note to mark what will likely be the high water mark for the 2026 Twins. After winning two of three from the Angels going into the All-Star break, their eighth series win out of nine, and beating the Cubs in that series opener, the Twins reached the .500 mark for the year, 49-49. Moreover, this tied them for the third wild card spot in the American League (with the Red Sox). At that point it seemed that they could be a respectable middle-of-the-road contender all year – not a team that would challenge the Dodgers or a half-dozen other more legitimate squads, but one that by splitting series could be fun to watch. And it clinched the argument that they shouldn’t sell any players come trading deadline.
Alas, in the next three games the Cubs and Guardians demolished, in succession, Bradley, Matthews and Ryan, who gave up 20 runs in the first four innings. These were the starters that were to keep the Twins competitive; if they can’t be relied on to keep a game close for five innings, there’s no cavalry for a rescue. Ober did his job, but that was it. Yes, the offense was bad, but it’s hard to be motivated when you’re down 8-0 before your second at bat. Maybe they can turn it around – and who cares about the third wild card spot? – but it’s looking more and more like the team I predicted coming out of spring training, not the one that has surprised everyone.

July 5: A 2-1 series win over the Yankees in New York is sweet enough as it is, but even better is what it said about the way the Twins are playing. They are scoring runs. Even when they lose it’s rarely due to lack of offense (see Bullpen stats). Gone are the days (from last year) of 10-14 strikeouts a game, which made the games almost unwatchable. (It seems the Twins have somewhere between the 3rd and 5th-lowest strikeout percentage in the Majors.) There are no more almost-automatic outs, meaning Lewis and Buxton are making contact at a much higher rate than they were last year and earlier this season. Clemons and Lee have surpassed their recent highs, Victor Caratini is superior to  recent backup catchers, and Josh Bell has gone from questionable to rbi leader. I have a personal fondness for Larnach’s calm demeanor and smooth swing; it’s rewarding to see him leading the team in hitting. Outside Buxton, the Twins don’t have a position player who was even in the field of All-Star voting, which makes their recent success so surprising. Yes, the Dodgers swept them, but the Twins played them almost even in two of the three losses. And that was the only series of the last nine that the Twins haven’t won.

June 16: Even though I’ve given up on the Twins’ season, I do feel a little better when they win, especially against playoff-eligible teams like the Cardinals and Rangers. It’s also fun to see them sorting out their roles. Most important they seem to have found a closer in Yoendrys Gomez, acquired from Tampa Bay in early May. He has made seven saves, generally without difficulty. In unheralded Mike Paredes they have found an inning-eater, and Shelton’s faith in Andrew Morris looks like it might pay off. It was a rash move to dump Simeon Woods-Richardson, who failed as a starter but had potential as a reliever, but if they can avoid using the last three guys in the pen in close games the relief staff could approach respectability. If Abel and Ober come back and pitch as they did early in the season, the staff could be formidable again.

The infield is also metamorphing with movable parts. Brooks Lee has improved his hitting and defense since moving to third base, where he has displaced Royce Lewis. Lewis has hit much better since returning from the minors, although a clutch two-run full-count single today followed two strikeouts on pitches in the dirt. The jury is still out. Luke Keaschall is getting the playing time at second, although he is often removed in the late innings for defensive purposes, which is not a good sign about his fielding. Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray are sharing shortstop, waiting to see who emerges, although Gray leads the league in errors-per-chance. If Kreidler keeps hitting I’ll bet he stays as the Twins wait for Kaelen Culpepper to earn a trip to the Majors. The movable piece is Kody Clemens, whose bat keeps him in the lineup against lefties as well as righties. He’s the Twins’ best first baseman, but he replaces Keaschall at second and can play the corner outfield. Having both Lewis and Clemens hitting means the Twins can keep Josh Bell in the DH slot.

Caratini and Jackson are holding down the catching until Jeffers returns. Both have hit as well or better than Sanchez did last year, and both have done well changing balls to ABS strikes, which has helped the pitchers not insignificantly. Maybe the Twins will creep toward a wild card spot over the next month, but that’s not an end in itself. As long as they are competitive and perhaps tickle .500 I will enjoy the summer.

June 7: The frustration in watching the Twins this year is the weakness of the bullpen. You can admire fine pitching by the starter–Joe Ryan yesterday, Conor Prielipp today–or a clutch hit–such as Orlando Arcia’s go-ahead homer in the 8th yesterday, but without someone to close out the win, it’s all for naught. A commenter yesterday noted that Louie Varland had registered his 10th save for the Blue Jays this year. You can easily imagine that these Twins could have had eight or ten more wins themselves if they hadn’t traded Varland away (in what is still looking like the worst of last year’s close-out deals). You’d hope to see some progress, or signs for the future, during a lost year like this one. So far, the Twins are paddling hard to tread water.

May 30: Well, that bubble burst. It wasn’t just that the White Sox embarrassed the Twins in winning three out of four (and almost the fourth). Chicago has seen ten rookies make their Major League debuts already this year, including the pitcher who one-hit the Twins in his first appearance and the Japanese import who leads the league in home runs. By comparison, the Twins newcomers–Gray, Kreidler, Arcia, Bell, Caratini–are all players who were considered dispensable by their former teams. Their ceiling would seem to be a level of temporary serviceability equal to Kody Clemens–performance that can keep you in some games (given the Twins’ pitching) but is never going to play for championships. Furthermore, the Twins farm system is fairly threadbare: a couple of redundant outfielders who can’t stay healthy, plus hopeful shortstop Kalen Culpepper. Oh, and maybe Royce Lewis can resurrect his career? One also wonders when watching the highlights shows and sees Ty France and Mickey Gasper why no one seems to get better while playing for Minnesota?

May 24: A three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway is making me take the ’26 Twins more seriously. I am still not expecting even winning the weak Central Division, and I can take, I hope, the losses as they come–especially when the opposition gets tougher. But what is intriguing is their new look: it’s not the same old faces (i.e., Wallner and Lewis, who have been sent down to the minors to “retool”). Who could have predicted an infield, like today’s, of Brooks Lee at 3rd, Ryan Kreidler at short, Oswald Arcia at 2d and Kody Clemens at 1st? Every team looks different at this point than it did coming out of spring training. For one extreme example: the Mets, with the second-highest payroll studded with veterans, started an all-rookie outfield this week.

The best of the surprises for Minnesota are in the pitching staff. Joe Ryan has been as good as hoped, which is about all that has played out that way. Bailey Ober has rebounded from a bad 2025 and has a 6-2 record, including the year’s best-pitched game: a two-hit shutout requiring only 89 pitches. Taj Bradley is 5-1 and looks like a potential ace. Conor Prielipp has shown scary potential, as have Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas. There have been injury scares all around, but there’s been enough depth to relegate Simeon Woods-Richardson to the bullpen, where he could actually help. Then the relievers, who were among the league’s worst for the season’s first quarter, have suddenly become effective. Part is due to the release of Justin Topa, who was supposed to be the anchor but just weighed things down. The Twins have continued to mix and match, pick up released merchandise and somehow cobble together three or four shutout innings each day. Key has been the turnaround of Anthony Banda and the milking of what little is left of Taylor Rogers. In any case, instead of blowing hard-won leads in the last two innings, the bullpen has recently managed to hang on by enough fingernails to secure some exciting wins. Meanwhile, manager Shelton keeps grooming rookie Andrew Morris to become a late-inning staple, even closer. It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s conceivable. For now, I’m sure the Twins lead the Majors in number of pitchers with saves.

If anything prevents the Twins from keeping up their recent run of good results it will be the loss for six weeks of Ryan Jeffers, who was not only their best middle-of-the-lineup clutch hitter but was excelling behind the plate, including in his ABS challenges. And Byron Buxton will have to keep contributing, despite his fragile condition. Clemens and Larnach can carry the offense only so far. But with their pitching, the Twins should continue to play interesting baseball for much of the summer.

April 29: The Twins might as well give up on the season if they can’t find a reliever – and I don’t know how you find one mid-year. I would suggest even converting a starter to reliever, if they had a surplus of starters: all their prospects are now in the Majors. Two games in a row against the visiting Mariners, the starters–Ryan and Bradley–have delivered quality starts, and the Twins were tied or ahead late in the game, only to see the M’s pour eight runs across in the 8th and 9th innings. Every reliever failed, although if you’re using Orze as your closer you know you’re in trouble. When he walks the first batter on four pitches it’s hard to even watch what follows. Very sad.

April 27: Good thing I acknowledged the Twins’ moment at the top of the league. Since then they have only won one game, and that was against the Mets, who have the worst record in the Bigs. Their starting rotation, which was their one strength, all got rocked, except for rookie Mick Abel, who went on the IL. Losing eight of nine after winning eight of nine is indicative either of a roller coaster of a season to come or the start of a long fall to the bottom.

April 22: The Star Tribune comment page is home to mostly Negative Nellies, who find fault even in Twins’ wins, and I know the feeling after watching the 9th inning of last night’s 5-3 win over the Mets. It should have been a joyous moment: the Twins came back, unusually, from a 3-0 deficit after having been no-hit for the first five innings; Buxton hit a mammoth two-run homer; Minnesota scored two 9th-inning runs; and the bullpen pitched four remarkably calm scoreless innings, including a 1-2-3 9th by Cole Sands. BUT. The lingering impression is of the Twins’ 9th after they were gifted two runs by three walks, a bunt and a Keaschall single that took a high hop over a drawn-in infield. That gave them the lead but it also gave them a bases-loaded, no-outs situation. I wasn’t looking for a grand slam, bases-clearing double or even a hit. How about a sac fly, or even a run-scoring double play, just to make that lead more comfortable? Instead, Lewis, Lee and Buxton all struck out swinging, without coming close to even hitting a baseball. In a clutch situation, someone’s got to do better.

April 19: The bloom is off the rose: the Twins not only dropped three games they should have won to the Reds, they lost  in a way that exposed weaknesses that will be hard to correct. The number one problem, which we knew existed from day one, was the lack of good relievers. Not just not having a closer, there isn’t a single reliable pitcher in the ‘pen. After three superb starts by Ryan, Bradley and Ober, the Twins were tied or leading in the late innings of each game, at which point the Cincinnati relievers gave up zero runs, while the Twins gave up nine. Charged with holding a 4-2 lead, Topa and Funderburk combined to give up one run, Orze gave up another, and Sands gave up the third. Today Shelton went with his new additions (as I would have), only to see Morris give up three runs and Acton another three. The fact that Acton’s three runs were all unearned goes to the second problem: poor defense, especially in the infield. Keaschall, Bell, Lee and today Gray all mishandled balls that led to Cincinnati runs. Lee will never be an above-average shortstop and will be replaced in a year or two by one of the Minor Leaguers on the way up. Bell is playing first just for variety; the Twins have lacked a long-term answer at first for many years. Third base will soon be reclaimed by Royce Lewis, although how much of an upgrade that will be remains to be seen. Keaschall can, and should, improve, unless his hitting doesn’t. The telling statistic from this weekend is that the Reds have won ALL their close games, while the Twins have mostly lost. Another interesting statistic: Byron Buxton has yet to get a hit with a runner in scoring position. This confirms my eyeball observation that he is murder on mistake pitches, but when a good pitcher is bearing down, he can easily be beat.

April 16: As the Twins are off today, I must acknowledge their remarkable position atop their division and boasting the best record in the American League. Only the Dodgers have more wins in the Majors. Even when they lost yesterday to the Red Sox, they scored four runs in the 9th while trailing 9-1, something that would never have happened last year. The season is young, but more than 10% old; still, how long can they keep this up? The most hopeful recent development is Mick Abel’s pitching: if he and Taj Bradley continue to give up one or no runs per start, the starting rotation will keep the Twins in enough games for the sporadic offense to win their fair share. The relief corps remains shaky, and the Twins’ recent run of wins hasn’t included many close games testing their closer-less model. Two new additions–Garrett Acton by trade and Andrew Morris by callup–provide a spark of hope. Anthony Banda has been the biggest disappointment, while everyone else has been serviceable, nothing more. By the way, remember David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who were both projected to augment the rotation last year? If either still has a future, that could provide some insurance for the inevitable injuries to come.
What has been most suprising is where the hitting has come from. (I won’t go into the below-average defense.) Austin Martin, Victor Caratini, Josh Bell, Tristan Gray–who was counting on them? Jeffers and Larnach are performing competently, as expected. Now if Buxton and Keaschall can get hot and stay hot, the Twins will remain fun to watch.

April 8: Last night’s 4-2 win over Detroit gave me three, maybe four, reasons for hope, and reasons to watch Twins games this year. One was the performance of Taj Bradley, who threw six-plus dominant innings for his third impressive outing this year. He is fun to watch. Two was the emergence of Luke Keaschall from his early slump. He drove in the winning runs in both victories over the Twins and gives every indication of being a reliable number-three hitter and fixture at second base for years to come. Three was the ABS system, which a whole new element of fun to the game. Last night Ryan Jeffers ended two innings by getting a called third strike, changing the game’s momentum and helping his pitcher. Jeffers is 8-for-12 on his challenges, well above league average. It’s also clear that only the catcher should make an ABS challenge. The Twins have hurt themselves several times already when a hitter, often Matt Wallner, has tried to get a called strike reversed, leaving the Twins catchers with no leverage the rest of the game. Four is a general observation, not particular to last night or this year: the best team in baseball will still win only two of three games; any game you watch could be that third one, unless it’s the Twins playing the Yankees.

March 30: Already I’ve settled into a different frame of mind watching the Twins: I hope they do well, but I’m not expecting a win. I analyze strengths and weaknesses, but if they lose, especially to the home team, it doesn’t ruin my day as it has in years past. That said, what has impressed so far is the starting rotation. Ryan was excellent, Bradley showed flashes of brilliance, Ober and Woods-Richardson performed competently. Only Mick Abel, in a planned relief role, wasn’t up to snuff. Maybe when he starts he will be better.
The Twins have opened 1-3 not due to their pitching–the relievers have held their own–but their anemic offense. When you’re fiddling your lineup to make sure Victor Caratini gets starts, you’re in trouble. Lewis and Wallner have homered, which masks their general futility at the plate. Buxton, as usual, has exciting moments, but is still an easy strike out in clutch situations. The Twins are still far from the “put-the-ball-in-play” style of hitting that at least makes teams fun to watch.

March 26: It may seem presumptuous to analyze the 2026 Minnesota Twins after watching Opening Day, but these points jumped out:
1. The Twins have three legitimate players: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers and Luke Keaschall. The rest are hangers-on or wannabes, players who couldn’t make the rosters of half the Major League teams.
2. Brooks Lee is not the long-term answer at shortstop. He’s an average (maybe) fielder and an insecure hitter. When he came to the plate with a chance to do damage, he was easily disposed of.
3. The Twins were bottom-three last year hitting with runners in scoring position, not a formula for success. Against the Orioles today they “threatened” in inning after inning, but hit into three doubleplays.
4. A corollary is their failure to move a runner on second with no outs over to third. No situational hitting.
5. Joe Ryan is a horse. He absolutely dominated the Orioles lineup and should be an All-Star again this year.
6. To say the Twins bullpen is a work in progress is an understatement. There is no closer, just a bunch of nibblers who’ll be asked to patch together the last three innings of every game. The 2-1 loss today was not their fault: Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa each gave up a seeing-eye single, hit more slowly than a half-dozen groundouts by the Twins. One solid single then scored the second run–the kind of clutch hit that eluded Minnesota (but see 6, below).
7. Austin Martin was notable last year for boneheaded plays, especially on the bases. Today he threw to the wrong base after catching a sacrifice fly, which allowed the eventual winning runner to advance to second. The run was charged to Topa, but Martin owned it.
8. Royce Lewis, I fear, will be a struggle again. The Twins won’t give up on him, given the potential he exhibited two years ago, but his home-run fixation will lead to more warning-track outs when he does make contact.
9. There will be plenty of room for a rookie or two to come over from St. Paul in a couple months and at least make the season more interesting. 10. I do like the pitch-call challenge with ABS. Twins batters had two valuable overturns. Maybe an area to excel.
Maybe tomorrow, or next week, someone will break out and make these observations look premature and foolish. But so far, I’m pinning all my hopes on the starting pitchers–Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Simeon Woods-Richardson–to keep the boys competitive.

Vikings Finale

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The Vikings closed their disappointing 2025 season with a win over the Packers in a “meaningless” game that was thrillingly satisfying for its small moments as much as its decisive 16-3 final score.
First, the victory gave the Vikings a winning record for the year, 9-8, and meant they technically finished ahead of the Lions, also at 9-8 but with two losses to Minnesota, for third in the division. It’s always better not to be last. Less important, but also gratifying, it means that the NFC North became the only division in the NFL not to have a team with a losing record. Contrast the NFC South, where no team had a winning record.
My personal concern was getting Justin Jefferson to 1,000 receiving yards for his sixth consecutive season, an elite mark he deserved but was in danger of missing due to the inefficiency of Vikings quarterbacks. The Vikings obviously felt the same way, as he was targeted again and again until he amassed 101 yards, another milestone and well beyond the 53 he needed.
The two longest-tenured Vikings were appearing in the final game of their careers, and both were given fitting tributes. Minnesota called time-out with a little over three minutes in the game to bring popular safety Harrison Smith off the field to fans’ and teammates’ applause. With all the comings and goings, injuries and salary-cap issues, Smith’s 14 years with one team are remarkable; plus his style of play, hard-hitting with sacks and interceptions, made him a fan favorite.
C.J. Ham’s role was always smaller: a blocking fullback who might carry the ball once or twice a game and also contributed on special teams. Doing the dirty work without the glamor made him widely respected, so when he was given the ball to score a 1-yard touchdown, the only one of the game, we could all be happy for him (and his family in the stands).
Green Bay kicked a short field goal on the game’s last play to avert the embarrassment of a shutout, and they were playing with an inexperienced rookie quarterback, but the obvious dominance of the Viking defense echoed the previous week’s shutout of the Detroit Lions and cemented their standing, I believe, as one of the three best defenses in the NFL (along with Seattle and Houston). Their players played hard right to the end and can be proud of their season.
So, what is left? The main goal of the game was to provide an assessment of J.J. McCarthy: can he be the quarterback for next year and beyond? The game was a failure on that count, as McCarthy was inconsistent and his injured hand reminded everyone how injury-prone he has been. Nor did it shed much light on Max Brosmer’s potential as a backup. He threw the ball well but mainly had only to manage the Vikings lead. Unfortunately, too,  he suffered an embarrassing fumble after tripping over his own lineman that reminded us of the game-changing interception he threw in his only start. The clamor to bring in another experienced quarterback will only grow, and we’ll have to see where we go from there.
On to Next Year.

World Series ’25

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Every great baseball game–and the Dodgers’ 5-4 seventh-game win was a great one–has a myriad of small moments a little flip of which might have altered the outcome. That, plus the amateur’s ability to see and second-guess so many of these moments, is one of baseball’s enduring virtues.

Here are some of the things I won’t discuss. The solo nature of the Dodgers’ three home runs, veritable ambushes, compared to Bo Bichette’s three-run homer in a high-leverage situation. Bichette’s limited mobility, which both cost the Blue Jays a run in the second inning and meant he was no longer in the lineup when Guerrero led off the 11th with a double. The Dodgers’ replacing Tommy Edman, an inexperienced centerfielder, with Andy Pages, their best defender, two batters before Pages had to make a sensational game-saving catch at the wall. Or one play before, when instant replay appeared to show Will Smith’s foot coming off home plate as Kiner-Falefa slid with what would’ve been the game-winning run (but who wanted the World Series to end with instant replay?).

No, the play I want to focus on occurred in the Dodger 6th, with the Jays leading 3-1. Chris Bassitt was on the mound. He walked Mookie Betts to lead off the inning–a cardinal sin, we know–then Max Muncy singled, putting runners on first and second. Teoscar Hernandez then hit a one-hopper back to the mound, not a screamer but time enough for Bassitt to collect the ball and make a throw.  His baseball instinct was to throw to second to start a double play, but, as the announcers noted, he took his time and didn’t rush, perhaps to make sure his throw was accurate. As a result, there was no double play (and the play at second was actually fairly close). If all he was going to get was one out, however, the play should have been to third base. The replay showed that Betts was only halfway there when Bassitt was getting ready to throw and would have been an easy out. A player has to know where he is going to throw the ball before it is hit, and I’m sure Bassitt’s only thought was, hit to me, go to second to start a double play. Perhaps the catcher should have directed his throw, as he would normally do on a bunt. But no one was contemplating Bassitt’s leisurely approach when the ball came his way.

What difference would this have made? The next batter, Edman, hit a fly ball to center which, because of Varsho’s weak arm, scored Betts from third. Had Bassitt erased Betts at third, no run would have scored and the Jays’ 3-1 lead would have offered more security. Yes, they added a run in their half of the 6th, but a 4-1 lead would have been more demoralizing to the Dodger hitters and might even have held up against the Muncy and Rojas homers that eventually knotted the score in the 9th.

Ah, you say, but remember that following Edman’s sacrifice fly Kike Hernandez hit a single to right. Would that not have scored Muncy from second anyway? We’ll never know, but remember also that Muncy is not the fastest Dodger, and Addison Barger in rightfield has allegedly the strongest arm in the majors, which he used to throw out a Dodger at home in an earlier game. It would at least have been fun to watch–the kind of play that makes baseball great.

Twins Wait Till Next Year

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The 2025 Twins’ 70-92 season is officially in the books. Because they traded away one-third of their roster at the trading deadline, the last two months have effectively been a try-out for the 2026 season. All the free agents were sent away early. There will be new ones next year–there had better be!–but it is not too soon to evaluate the players under contract: who might make the team next spring, and what chance will that give the ’26 Twins.

Starting Pitchers. The Twins ended the season with six consecutive stellar outings, against good opponents, from fairly young starters, all of whom will be legitimate candidates for the rotation: Simeon Woods-Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober, Nick Abel, Taj Bradley and Joe Ryan. Pablo Lopez, not young but the purported ace, also excelled in his last start before a minor injury ended his season. Then there’s David Festa, whose season was cut short but has long been considered a rising star. By my count, that’s eight arms for a five-man rotation. This is far and away the strength of next year’s roster, so much so that I wouldn’t mind losing Lopez (and his salary) to a trade for some relievers or some offense.

Relievers: The Twins famously traded away their five most-used relievers, presumably believing that rebuilding the bullpen was the easiest part of reconstruction. This gave them the chance to try out arms from their Minor League system as well as some pickups. The results were not encouraging. Of the relievers they retained, Cole Sands was given the most high-leverage situations to deal with, with some success and some failure. I expect him to be retained but if he is more than the fourth man in the pen they’re in trouble. Of the newbies, I’m most excited about Kyle Funderburk. He flopped in his first two call-ups, but the last time around he had gained in control and confidence. I expect in 2026 he will fill the designated lefthander role assigned in recent years to Caleb Thielbar and Danny Couloumbe. It’s hard to see where six more relief pitchers will come from. I don’t expect the Twins to convert any of the above starters, as it’s clear by now that teams need starting depth to get through the season. Travis Adams and Pierson Ohl were given every opportunity and will be, again. If one of the two rises to the occasion I will be happy. Thomas Hatch looked good for awhile but tailed off. I’m less hopeful for someone like Hatch who is not young and has been let go by five previous clubs. Genesis Cabrera should have no future, and Anthony Misiewicz was terrible; but both are lefthanders so will be given another look. Michael Tonkin is old and was a stop-gap this year. Justin Topa has better credentials than the others but was disappointing. In short, this is where the Twins should concentrate their recruiting efforts and free-agent dollars.

Outfield: This is the most intriguing part of the plot. Byron Buxton’s in center, although we all know a backup should be on the roster, always available. But who among this group is worth the future: Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, James Outman, Alan Roden? Compared to the Twins’ top three prospects, all of whom, I believe, are corner outfielders: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Gabriel Gonzalez. Wallner and Larnach have both been given plenty of runway to reach their potential, and, as with Max Kepler, it seems vain to expect a higher level of play from either in the future. While Wallner was second to Buxton in home runs, he hit for only a .202 average and, despite his homers, was seventh in rbi. Larnach has a lovely swing, but .250 seems to be his ceiling as well as his floor. They both hit lefthanded and I can’t see the Twins continuing to employ them both. (It would be nice if another team would trade a relief pitcher for them; it would have been even nicer if the Twins had kept Brent Rooker, who lost a roster spot to them a few years ago.) The Twins clearly hoped Roden would develop if given a chance to play and were hoping that Outman could revive a career that had flailed with the Dodgers. Neither should stand in the way of one or more of the prospects. Martin is a more interesting case. He ended up with a .282 average and has speed and defensive versatility. He made several bonehead plays, which you think can be eliminated with experience. In short, there is at least one, and maybe two, open outfield  positions to be won in spring training next year.

Infield: Luke Keaschall is the Twins second baseman for the foreseeable future, if he can stay healthy. Brooks Lee is adequate, but barely, at shortstop and can hold the position until one of the Twins prospects is ready. It’s astonishing how slow he is for a shortstop though. Royce Lewis should be the permanent solution at third, but his hitting is nowhere near the level he demonstrated when he first arrived. His swing-and-miss rate is high, especially on balls outside the strike zone, and his power has fallen to warning-track level. .237 with 13 home runs is not what the Twins are expecting. A return to the Royce Lewis of old is the single conceivable factor that would most elevate the Twins’ offense. I like Kody Clemens at first. He is solid defensively (unlike Eddie Julien), and I read that he has the second-highest hard-hit rate on balls in play, which suggests his .216 average is not indicative. Just as important, he had a knack for big hits and big home runs this year that the rest of the lineup lacked. I like the idea of giving him the chance to start a year as the regular first baseman, instead of bringing in a retread free agent as the Twins have done recently. That leaves us to consider Julien, who was a good hitter before he wasn’t but who showed signs of life when necessity called upon him this year. I’m afraid, as with Jose Miranda, he just couldn’t take the next step to become a solid Major League hitter. The Twins need a backup, but I’m looking for a fresh face.

Catcher: Ryan Jeffers, after Buxton, is the longest-serving, most dependable player on the team and will remain the #1 catcher for next year and beyond. Christian Vazquez, paid a lot of money to hit .189, will be gone, which means new backup catcher is needed. In a limited window, Mickey Gasper hit .158 and Johnny Pereda .345, but both were stopgaps and I don’t think this question has been answered. I expect a trade or free-agent signing for a good defender who hits .210.

Did I forget to mention DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Ryan Fitzgerald? Both plugged holes which one hopes won’t be so glaring next year.

In sum, unlike this year when almost all the roster spots were decided before spring training even began, there could and should be plenty of new faces, open competitions and surprises before Opening Day 2026.

Vikings Flop

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I awoke at 6:30 Sunday morning and figured that was the message for me to watch the Vikings-Steelers game being broadcast from Dublin. A mistake, except it kept me from signing up for the NFL Sunday Ticket TV package. The 24-21 final score was misleading, as the Steelers dominated both sides of the ball. What was not misleading was the Vikings’ inability to provide a pocket for the quarterback to throw from. That has been the Vikings’ trademark for as long as I have watched them. It prompted them to remake their offensive line this offseason, with aging linemen who have already begun to fall apart. When I watch other teams on the tube–Green Bay at the moment–I see quarterbacks sitting in the pocket, surveying the defense, and throwing downfield. It’s fun to watch. Vikings quarterbacks, by contrast, are harried and too often get sacked or throw a check-down pass. We get so little chance to see Justin Jefferson and the other receivers doing their thing. Wentz did throw one long pass today, but only because the Steelers forgot to cover their man.

The Comeback

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This Netflix three-part documentary tells the story of the Boston Red Sox’s unprecedented comeback, in the 2004 ALCS against the Yankees, from an 0-3 deficit in the best of seven series. What was just as remarkable to me was its depiction of the very personal rivalry that existed between the two teams. Has there been such a rivalry since, and if not, why? Not living on the East Coast anymore, maybe I just don’t sense it, but let’s explore what’s different, twenty years later.

1. In 2003 the Yankees beat the Red Sox in the seventh game of the ALCS, a crushing loss on Aaron Boone’s homer. 2004 was a rematch between the two top teams in the American League. The Sox and the Yankees aren’t the two top teams anymore, and haven’t been for a long time. In fact, Boston hasn’t been terribly good for awhile.
2. Rosters today are far more fluid. Free agency existed in 2004, but it didn’t dominate the scene as it does now. The characters in the Netflix series are pretty constant from 2003 to 2004. The Yankees add Alex Rodriguez, the Sox bring in Davey Roberts (for pinch-running), but that’s about it. This year alone the Yankees have added Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt and Ryan McMahon to their starting lineup. And see 3.
3. All teams rely on younger players than before. It’s an economic necessity, as arbitration jacks up veteran salaries and teams can compensate for their big-ticket signings with numerous rookies and players who haven’t reached arbitration. And for whatever reason, modern rookies seem to taking bigger roles than their counterparts did in the past. If you’re new to the club and adapting to the Big Leagues, you’re not likely to have acquired an antipathy to a rival team.
4. With interleague play, division rivals face off twelve times a year, instead of eighteen. Playing a greater variety of opponents makes you less likely to focus on any one.
5. Improved fan behavior, although it’s hard to explain this, or even believe it. The Netflix show has frequent instances of rabid fans yelling, “Boston sucks” and “Yankees suck.” This ugly cheer, which was common in sports back then (I remember cringing when I heard it at a Columbia basketball game), seems to have faded away, thank goodness. Maybe because there’s so much division in society, and we have the Internet to express hostility, people see a ballpark as a place to be a little more polite.
6. A-Rod. There’s no one in uniform today with the smarmy arrogance of Alex Rodriguez. I can see how much someone would hate to lose with him on the other side. (Personally, I felt that way about Derek Jeter too.)
7. Of course, much the same could be said about the Yankees in general in those days. They won too much, their owner George Steinbrenner was obnoxious, and they represented the biggest, most arrogant city in America. Now that they haven’t won the World Series in ages, you don’t exactly feel sorry for them, but there isn’t cause for the intense dislike you get when someone always beats you. This holds, as well, for every other franchise, although the Dodgers are threatening to take this position.

Whatever caused it and is missing now, the rivalry made for exciting baseball and an excellent documentary. By piecing together current interviews with archival footage, the moviemakers added a dimension to the games they showed, which were exciting by themselves. The story seemed all the more historic given the recall by the principals twenty years later. And these people hadn’t been resting on their laurels: Theo Epstein had gone on to bring the Cubs a world championship, Terry Francona continued his Hall-of-Fame career managing Cleveland and now Cincinnati, yet they remembered 2004 like it was yesterday. Without such rivalries, playoff series these days are more ho-hum: who’s going to get excited by the Texas Rangers? Indeed, the 2004 World Series was treated as an anticlimax in the documentary, despite its being Boston’s first championship in 85 years–sort of like the U.S. Olympic hockey team’s gold medal win after beating the Russians in the semifinals. The latter game is the one everyone remembers. And thanks to Netflix, we won’t forget the year the Red Sox stunned the Yankees.

Timberwolves

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As a regular but casual follower (fan?) of the Minnesota Timberwolves–i.e., I study the box scores but don’t watch the games–let me wrap up the ’24-’25 season with a few observations:
1. It’s not fair to blame a 30-point playoff-ending loss to OKC on one person, but when Jaden McDaniels missed four straight corner three’s to start the game while the Thunder was scoring at the other end,  you could see the life drain out of the Wolves. The team as a whole started the game 1-for-11, which pretty much settled matters, but McDaniels could have given his mates some energy, and confidence, had he hit. I followed McDaniels’s stats pretty closely all year. He was given a big contract more than year ago and was projected to be a long-term complement to Anthony Edwards. He is also consistently listed as the Wolves’ top defender. On several occasions this year he exploded on offense and led the team in scoring. More often, however, he was not even in the top three. Is he still developing? I’m not sure, nor was I impressed with his defense when I did watch the playoffs. When I compare him to the supporting players on the Thunder or the Pacers, he doesn’t measure up. I suspect that the Wolves will go no further if McDaniels remains in the starting lineup.
2. There has been a lot of buildup around Anthony Edwards as the next Face of the NBA, the next Jordan-like superstar. The playoffs will surely put a damper on that. Looking at the other teams in the conference finals I was in awe of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Halliburton and Jaylen Brunson, each of whom carried their team to victory after victory. Edwards was simply not in their class. Yes, he was double-teamed and he wisely facilitated his teammates’ scoring, but you can’t tell me that the opponents didn’t devote similar attention to those other stars. Brunson, especially, seemed to take on three or four opponents en route to an amazing basket time and again. And let’s not forget Jokic, Doncic, Antenmkoupo, Tatum before anointing Edwards.
3. Minnesota fans all year clamored for playing time for Wolves outside the eight-man rotation that coach Chris Finch stuck with, and Terrence Shannon seemed to justify their position with the brilliant few minutes he was given in the playoffs. Rosters inevitably change over the summer, so it’s premature to offer a prescription, but I’m among those who would love to see Shannon, Jaylen Clark, Rob Dillingham and Luke Garza given more playing time, especially given how unimportant most regular-season games are.
4. Speaking of Luke Garza, what do you do with Rudy Gobert? The Wolves are stuck with his multiyear, multimillion-dollar contract, but he can’t guard better players (and there seem to be many) and his only offense is the dunk shot. There are games when he totals fewer than five points. His peers were wrong to vote him second-most overrated player, only because the vote for Halliburton as number one was clearly a mistake.
5. Finally, although the T’Wolves have overperformed for two years in reaching the Western Conference finals, their 1-4 dismissals there show that what they’re doing is not enough. Fans want something new to excite us. I am eager to see what it will be.

Lawrence’s Goldfinch

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I saw my first Lawrence’s Goldfinch Sunday when a flock of 15 or so landed in a small, leafless tree right in front of me. I was with a group invited to a morning of birding by the Cornell Lab of Ornithology at Birdsong Ranch, a property between Ventura and Ojai being rebuilt for birds by the Chouinard family (that was my assumption, as Lizzie Chouinard was our host). Ian Owens, the Lab’s director, had mentioned that Lawrence’s Goldfinch was the final spotting on his predecessor’s North American life list, which reinforced a comment I often make when I hear of someone bragging about the number of species they have seen: seeing a lot of birds is mainly a function of how much you travel for birds and what local guides you have, not your skill as a birder. We had been told upon arrival that we were likely to encounter the Lawrence’s, as they had been seen the day before; and it certainly required no expertise to identify the goldfinches, with their yellow-spotted bellies and black foreheads, posing briefly before us before flying off in a flash.
At the other extreme, we also saw two very rare, for southern California, Swainson’s Hawks. They were flying high in the sky, above a kettle of Ravens. “How do you identify them?,”  I asked and was told that they are the only Buteo with pointed wings. Indeed, although they were barely visible, I could see their graceful form. It took skill and experience to identify the high flyers as Swainson’s, very different from the one I had seen with Norse sitting on the roadside in Minnesota, with its identifying band across the chest.  (4/16/25)