Twins Diary ’25

September 29:  The 2025 Twins’ 70-92 season is officially in the books. Because they traded away one-third of their roster at the trading deadline, the last two months have effectively been a try-out for the 2026 season. All the free agents were sent away early. There will be new ones next year–there had better be!–but it is not too soon to evaluate the players under contract: who might make the team next spring, and what chance will that give the ’26 Twins.

Starting Pitchers. The Twins ended the season with six consecutive stellar outings, against good opponents, from fairly young starters, all of whom will be legitimate candidates for the rotation: Simeon Woods-Richardson, Zebby Matthews, Bailey Ober, Nick Abel, Taj Bradley and Joe Ryan. Pablo Lopez, not young but the purported ace, also excelled in his last start before a minor injury ended his season. Then there’s David Festa, whose season was cut short but has long been considered a rising star. By my count, that’s eight arms for a five-man rotation. This is far and away the strength of next year’s roster, so much so that I wouldn’t mind losing Lopez (and his salary) to a trade for some relievers or some offense.

Relievers: The Twins famously traded away their five most-used relievers, presumably believing that rebuilding the bullpen was the easiest part of reconstruction. This gave them the chance to try out arms from their Minor League system as well as some pickups. The results were not encouraging. Of the relievers they retained, Cole Sands was given the most high-leverage situations to deal with, with some success and some failure. I expect him to be retained but if he is more than the fourth man in the pen they’re in trouble. Of the newbies, I’m most excited about Kyle Funderburk. He flopped in his first two call-ups, but the last time around he had gained in control and confidence. I expect in 2026 he will fill the designated lefthander role assigned in recent years to Caleb Thielbar and Danny Couloumbe. It’s hard to see where six more relief pitchers will come from. I don’t expect the Twins to convert any of the above starters, as it’s clear by now that teams need starting depth to get through the season. Travis Adams and Pierson Ohl were given every opportunity and will be, again. If one of the two rises to the occasion I will be happy. Thomas Hatch looked good for awhile but tailed off. I’m less hopeful for someone like Hatch who is not young and has been let go by five previous clubs. Genesis Cabrera should have no future, and Anthony Misiewicz was terrible; but both are lefthanders so will be given another look. Michael Tonkin is old and was a stop-gap this year. Justin Topa has better credentials than the others but was disappointing. In short, this is where the Twins should concentrate their recruiting efforts and free-agent dollars.

Outfield: This is the most intriguing part of the plot. Byron Buxton’s in center, although we all know a backup should be on the roster, always available. But who among this group is worth the future: Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, James Outman, Alan Roden? Compared to the Twins’ top three prospects, all of whom, I believe, are corner outfielders: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Gabriel Gonzalez. Wallner and Larnach have both been given plenty of runway to reach their potential, and, as with Max Kepler, it seems vain to expect a higher level of play from either in the future. While Wallner was second to Buxton in home runs, he hit for only a .202 average and, despite his homers, was seventh in rbi. Larnach has a lovely swing, but .250 seems to be his ceiling as well as his floor. They both hit lefthanded and I can’t see the Twins continuing to employ them both. (It would be nice if another team would trade a relief pitcher for them; it would have been even nicer if the Twins had kept Brent Rooker, who lost a roster spot to them a few years ago.) The Twins clearly hoped Roden would develop if given a chance to play and were hoping that Outman could revive a career that had flailed with the Dodgers. Neither should stand in the way of one or more of the prospects. Martin is a more interesting case. He ended up with a .282 average and has speed and defensive versatility. He made several bonehead plays, which you think can be eliminated with experience. In short, there is at least one, and maybe two, open outfield  positions to be won in spring training next year.

Infield: Luke Keaschall is the Twins second baseman for the foreseeable future, if he can stay healthy. Brooks Lee is adequate, but barely, at shortstop and can hold the position until one of the Twins prospects is ready. It’s astonishing how slow he is for a shortstop though. Royce Lewis should be the permanent solution at third, but his hitting is nowhere near the level he demonstrated when he first arrived. His swing-and-miss rate is high, especially on balls outside the strike zone, and his power has fallen to warning-track level. .237 with 13 home runs is not what the Twins are expecting. A return to the Royce Lewis of old is the single conceivable factor that would most elevate the Twins’ offense. I like Kody Clemens at first. He is solid defensively (unlike Eddie Julien), and I read that he has the second-highest hard-hit rate on balls in play, which suggests his .216 average is not indicative. Just as important, he had a knack for big hits and big home runs this year that the rest of the lineup lacked. I like the idea of giving him the chance to start a year as the regular first baseman, instead of bringing in a retread free agent as the Twins have done recently. That leaves us to consider Julien, who was a good hitter before he wasn’t but who showed signs of life when necessity called upon him this year. I’m afraid, as with Jose Miranda, he just couldn’t take the next step to become a solid Major League hitter. The Twins need a backup, but I’m looking for a fresh face.

Catcher: Ryan Jeffers, after Buxton, is the longest-serving, most dependable player on the team and will remain the #1 catcher for next year and beyond. Christian Vazquez, paid a lot of money to hit .189, will be gone, which means new backup catcher is needed. In a limited window, Mickey Gasper hit .158 and Johnny Pereda .345, but both were stopgaps and I don’t think this question has been answered. I expect a trade or free-agent signing for a good defender who hits .210.

Did I forget to mention DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Ryan Fitzgerald? Both plugged holes which one hopes won’t be so glaring next year.

In sum, unlike this year when almost all the roster spots were decided before spring training even began, there could and should be plenty of new faces, open competitions and surprises before Opening Day 2026.

September 22: The nadir of the Twins’ lost season came in a split doubleheader against the Guardians at home last Saturday. It wasn’t just the lopsided final scores–6-0 and 8-0– and the futility of their offense. It was the implosion of starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. These were two of their aces coming into the season–and in Ryan’s case for the first half of his All-Star season–and both were considered long-term cornerstones for the Minnesota rotation. What hope do we have for next year as we go into the long offseason? The two youngsters who were supposed to provide depth to the rotation–Zebby Mathews and David Festa–have largely disappointed. Pedro Lopez, despite missing two months with an arm injury, seems to be the Twins’ best hope at relevancy. Simeon Woods-Richardson, who seemed an afterthought much of the last two years–i.e., a potential fourth or fifth starter–had better luck against Cleveland on Sunday, after an excellent outing against the Yankees; so there is that. But watching the minor leagues I’ve seen no help on the horizon. Interestingly, while the starters have crumbled, the relievers have shown some success, and it has not been the remnant trio of Sands, Tonkin and Topa that has steadied the ship. Kody Funderburk has pitched much better this last time around, although there’s room to improve his control against the first lefthanded hitter he routinely faces, and Travis Adams and Pierson Ohl have both profited from being used one inning at a time, instead of as long relievers. In short, the Twins pitching staff next spring should be a wide open competition.

September 13: Even a meaningless game in the homestretch of a wasted season can provide thrills, with last night’s Twins-Diamondbacks game a great example. I turned it on in the bottom of the 9th inning, with the Twins behind, 8-6. Worse, I quickly realized, was that they had been ahead, 6-4, going into the 9th, but their woeful, post-trade-deadline bullpen had surrendered four runs. Actually, they had come off Cole Sands, the closest thing the Twins have to a competent reliever who will make the team next year. Usually, the Twins fold up and die in such a situation, but leadoff batter Kody Clemens ended a 10-pitch at bat with an opposite field home run, to cut the deficit to one. More exciting was the news that this was Clemens’s third homer of the game, the first Twin in five years to accomplish this feat. Clemens, who was hitting a pathetic .202 entering the game, also had a double and raised his average 11 points. Just as surprising, Eddie Julien then sliced a single to left, Buxton was HBP, Austin Martin walked on four pitches and Trevor Larnach, facing a leftie, walked on a 3-2 pitch to force in the tying run. Luke Keaschall, the Twins’ deserving rookie, clubbed a deep fly to left. It resulted in the first out of the inning, but also a walk-off win, with three obligatory Gatorade dumps to follow.

September 7: A footnote from the Friday box scores in today’s L.A. Times: The Colorado Rockies, on their way to a 120-loss season, have no one in their lineup hitting below .238. The Twins have six.

September 3: The last-place Chicago White Sox had not won a game when trailing in the 9th inning for more than a year–205 games, to be exact. Nor had they won a series in Minnesota since 2023. But tonight the Twins took a 3-1 lead into the 9th and lost 4-3 when Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa combined to give up three White Sox runs, the last two on a two-strike, two-out pitch to former Twin Michael A. Taylor, who had struck out his previous three at bats. It just goes to show what you can expect when you trade away your five top relief pitchers at the same time. The Twins are now officially the least interesting team in the American League and, with only the Colorado Rockies as a contender, perhaps the entire Major Leagues.

August 28: I’ve rarely seen a player who looked less like a professional athlete, let alone a Major League catcher, than the Twins’ Mickey Gasper. His build is slight for a position where the Cal Raleigh/Salvador Perez/Ryan Jeffers build is more the norm. His demeanor is timid, such that it is hard to imagine him calling the game for his pitcher. His face is boyish, despite a mustache that seems designed to mask his youth, although he’s 29 approaching 30. His catcher’s gear and batting helmet sit on him like something he’s borrowed from their rightful owner. The fact that he entered Tuesday’s game with Toronto on an 0-for-27 streak wasn’t all that surprising: he’s playing on the remnant Twins only because Christian Vazquez, the regular backup, is out, probably for the year, and the Twins have no prospects in the Minors. What was surprising, and indeed heartwarming, was watching Gasper hit his first Major League home run leading off the 9th inning to tie the game, 4-4, after he had hit two singles and scored a run earlier. That the Twins held on to win, 7-5, after Matt Wallner’s similarly rare three-run homer later in the inning, only made the occasion sweeter still.

One day after stunning the Blue Jays with only their second 9th-inning comeback of the year, the Twins returned the favor by blowing an 8-6 lead in the 8th. There were two principal culprits, both indicative of the Twins’ situation. The less obvious one was Byron Buxton, because he had given Minnesota much of its early lead with two solo home runs. What more could you expect from someone? The problem came in the top of the 8th inning. Twins led, 8-6, but you knew that lead was not safe, given the uncertainty of their relief corps. With two outs, the Twins had runners on second and third and Buxton at bat. A hit would have provided some comfort and certainly discouraged any Toronto comeback. But hitting with runners on base in a pressure situation is where Buck is weakest. Or maybe it is just that the pitcher is bearing down, as opposed to the game’s first pitch, where Buxton excels. Buxton swung at the first pitch, even though it was low and more than a foot outside. Clearly, he had decided to swing at the first pitch, regardless. He showed better control as the at-bat progressed, and worked the count to 3-2. I knew, you knew, and presumably Buxton must have known, the next pitch was going to be a breaking ball down and away, likely out of the strike zone (first base was open, remember). Nevertheless, Buxton swung and missed at a pitch he couldn’t reach. Buxton has good stats, great power, but can’t be counted on to even make contact when contact is all that is needed.
The second culprit was manager Rocco Baldelli, and the usual complaint is from his managing his relief corps. Once he got only four innings from starter Simeon Woods-Richardson, he had to cobble the rest of the game from his relievers. Baldelli’s obsession with never using a reliever for more than one inning meant here that he would need good outings from five pitchers–highly unlikely given the makeup of his current roster. One who has performed admirably is Thomas Hatch, who is also a long reliever, but Baldelli pulled Hatch after he pitched a 1-2-3 5th inning once he walked the leadoff batter in the 6th. This didn’t work particularly well as lefthander Kody Funderburk, brought in to face lefthanded hitters, gave up hits to the first two lefties he faced before retiring the third. Cole Sands then struck out the side in the 7th, but rather than seeing how he could handle a second inning, Baldelli brought in Genesis Cabrera, and the lead was soon gone.

August 20: One half inning tonight convinced me that the Twins should find a new manager for next season. In the 3rd inning, down 1-0 to the A’s, James Outman, in his first week, led off with a double. Ryan Fitzgerald, the Twins’ 31-year-old rookie, followed with a routine single to right. When he saw the rightfielder’s lob throw coming in to the cutoff man not to second base, he just kept running and made second easily. No other Twin would have tried that, which just goes to show the joy Fitzgerald has playing baseball. With runners on second and third, the Twins, as they always do, put on the “contact” play, otherwise known as the suicide play. When Buxton hit a one-hopper to third, Outman was out at home by ten feet. With runners then on first and third, the broadcasters kept expecting Buxton, who has yet to be caught this year, to steal second to obviate any double play possibility. The A’s pitcher, they observed, was a ground ball specialist. For five pitches Buxton never moved, and when Larnach hit a grounder to second on the sixth pitch, the A’s turned a double play and the Twins, after having runners on second and third with no outs, exited the frame scoreless.
To my mind, there were two obvious tactical – i.e., managerial – errors: the contact play with no outs and two runners in scoring position and failing to move Buxton off first. I’ll explain my reasoning on the first in a minute. But beyond the tactical errors, I saw the effects of Baldelli’s conservatism on his club. As I suggested, no player who had been playing for Baldelli for more than a month would have gone to second as Fitzgerald did. Then Buxton, who has learned nothing playing for Baldelli for years, used his usual all-or-nothing swing, pulling a grounder to third base. Contact to any other part of the field would have produced a run. And how great it would have been for Buxton to lay down a bunt, putting huge pressure on the defense. I’ve been waiting for Buxton to bunt for ten years now. Getting Outman in would not only have given the Twins a run and perhaps the victory (they lost, 4-2, in extra innings), it would have given Outman a psychological boost as he tries to make his new team.  Baldelli, in short, may be good managing established role players, but he won’t inspire new players, and let them, or make them, play aggressive baseball, which is what the new-look Twins will need next year.
Now, as to the strategic point:

August 16: With competitive baseball out of reach, you might think that the rest of the Twins season will consist of auditions for next year, except that few on the current roster figure to be in the Majors next year if the Twins are to be competitive. Among the pitchers, there’s Joe Ryan and, if he recovers from his injury, Pablo Lopez. Ohl, Adams, Urena should be distant memories. Probably Ramirez and Funderburk too. Sands, Topa and Tonkin could fill some low-pressure relief innings, but it’s not like they’re starting careers and have room for improvement. The only “find” among the newcomers is Thomas Hatch, who is willing to throw strikes where all the others prefer to nibble. Bailey Ober, once the most reliable of the starters, has lost whatever his magic was. Matthews, Festa and Woods-Richardson, the next generation, can’t seem to stay healthy enough or consistent enough to be counted on, although that’s what the Twins will do. Nabbing a successful pitcher in the free agent market is the hardest thing to do, and the Twins have the track record to prove it.
Things are not much rosier on the offensive side. Let’s say Luke Keaschall improves his defense and continues to be the Twins best hitter. We can hope, but we’re discouraged by so many recent examples of Twins who have never lived up to their rookie promise: Sano, Miranda, Julien and Lewis come to mind. It’s pretty clear that Wallner and Larnach will never rise above being streaky, below-average corner outfielders. Roden and Outman, acquired in Black Thursday trades, rank a notch below. Brooks Lee at short makes you realize how good Correa’s arm was and makes you hope the Twins #1 draft pick this year gets to the Bigs sooner than later. The Twins don’t even have a backup catcher to critique. The only bright spots I see are Jeffers, who is putting up good numbers for a catcher, and Kody Clemens, who has more big hits than any other Twin and is performing well above anyone’s expectations. I can see him holding down the utility spot on the roster next year. Buxton is playing more and putting up bigger numbers than in recent past years, but like every other Twin, except perhaps Keaschall, he can’t be counted on to even put the ball in play in a clutch situation. The other teams that are regularly beating the Twins have that in common: they more consistently put the ball in play, and lots of times that leads to good things happening.
I’ll revisit this picture in a month, when the sample size will be bigger. I don’t, however, expect it to be any better.

August 10: Every spring training I watch the box scores, looking for little-known players who surprise. This year I was enamored with the statistics of two Minor Leaguers: Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsay. Could either add a surprise spark to a roster of mostly well known average players? Gasper made the Opening Day roster but didn’t last long. Keirsay has spent a fair amount of time in Minneapolis, as injuries sidelined Buxton and Wallner for stretches. Based on what I’ve seen since, neither belongs in the Majors. Gasper looks clueless with the bat, although he has taken some valuable walks. He caught his first game today and didn’t embarrass himself, except when the Royals stole second base. With Christian Vaszquez’s days as a Twin numbered, it appears that acquiring a veteran backup catcher should be the Twins’ offseason priority. As for Keirsay, his value was as a pinch-runner, but the new look Twins appear both to be faster and overstocked with outfielders. I suspect his window has closed. And once again I’ve learned the lesson that spring training statistics don’t matter.

August 10: There are a number of sensational rookies shaking up rosters around the Majors, but the Twins’ Luke Keaschall looks second to none. He’s on a 12-game hitting streak to start his career, with 12 rbi to boot. Today, with the Twins looking bumbling and outclassed, he hit a two-out, two-run opposite-field home run in the 11th inning to beat the Royals, 5-3. How bad were the Twins? First, their parade of relief pitchers put batters on base every inning, and when they got outs they were line drives and long flies. Only the Royals’ 1-for-15 with RISP kept Minnesota in the game. The Twins’ first three runs came on a walk by the hapless Mickey Gasper and 31-year-old rookie Ryan Fitzgerald’s first Major League hit, a home run. Then behind 3-2, Austin Martin opened the 8th with a triple when the Royals rightfielder rashly dove for a line drive in front of him and let it run to the wall. The next two batters failed to produce, but Ryan Jeffers, the closest thing the Twins have to a clutch hitter, lined a single. In the 9th Kansas City loaded the bases but didn’t score; the Twins went out 1-2-3.  Michael Tonkin pitched two courageous extra innings to give the Twins two chances for a walkoff win, but both times they failed to advance the ghost runner. In the 10th, Baldelli curiously used Royce Lewis to pinch-run for Brooks Lee at second while letting the hapless Mickey Gasper try to advance the runner to third. Gasper made the worst attempts at bunting I’ve seen in the Majors (just as he had in a game last week), striking out. Ryan Fitzgerald then hit a long fly that would have won the game had Lewis been on third. Lewis failed to tag and move over to third, not that it eventually mattered, just looked bad. In the 11th, with Martin on second, Jeffers hit a long drive to rightfield, far enough to move the ghost runner to third with one out. Martin, however, hesitated on the basepaths before returning to second to tag up; starting late for third he was thrown out, seemingly a rally-killing doubleplay. Until with two outs, Keaschall ended it with his third hit of the game.

August 4: With a little distance, the Twins’ trades look a bit worse. The only player received in return who has played significant time, Alan Roden, has looked harmless at the plate, leading the team in strikeouts, and took a bad route in the outfield, turning an out into a double. As for the dump leading to a youth movement, yesterday’s win came via a 34-year-old starter and 35-year-old reliever. Meanwhile, we have to watch Eddie Julien try to play second and UCSB alum Noah Davis throw batting practice. Duran is looking like a monster in Philly; but bless him, he’ll have many more save opportunities there than he would have had in Minnesota. Whatever the Twins got for trading Willi Castro won’t replace what they should have had by signing him to a multi-year contract. And Kendry Rojas better be good eventually if Minnesota fans are to forgive the Twins for trading Louie Varland. As noted, Alan Roden isn’t likely to do it; and moreover, he’s a lefthanded-hitting corner outfielder, of which the Twins already have one too many.

August 1: Knowing nothing of what they got in return, I can confidently state that the Twins’ fire sale this week–trading away 10 players from the 26-man roster–was a disaster for their fan base in general and me in particular. They were hard to watch as is, but now it will be pure masochism. Even should the hitters get lucky and score some runs, who will protect a lead, with the five top relievers all gone. The ones who remain were used only in blow-out games, and when they weren’t the games quickly became blowouts. But let’s take a fond look back at the faces who are now gone:
Jhoan Duran, the Twins closer, is the biggest name and received the most promising return, partly because, like Griffin Jax, he is under team control for a few more years. As readers know, I was never confident in his closing ability, statistics aside. As someone pointed out, it will be interesting to see how he will hold up in Philadelphia, where stakes are higher and fans less forgiving. His sporadic control, inability to hold baserunners and nervous looks will come under scrutiny, without the dispensation he had in Minnesota of being the first to consistently throw over 100 mph and being “ours.”
A year ago Griffin Jax was the Twins’ best reliever, but he has slipped this year. Perhaps management saw this as a trend and thought they were selling high by getting a needed starting pitcher (Taj Bradley) in return.
The biggest surprise, and trade most questioned, was sending Louie Varland to the Blue Jays. He was the most used reliever on the Twins, he’s a native Minnesotan, he has only begun his career in relief, he would not be arbitration-eligible for five more years and is seemingly a player who could grow with the Twins long-term. Maybe he was necessary to secure another potential starter, but it’s unknown whether the trade target will be better than Varland, who is also a potential starter, as far as that goes.
Carlos Correa is the headline in the purge, but his situation is unique. He was given the Twins’ largest contract ever with the hope that he could produce championship-level baseball in Minnesota. Once that appeared out of reach–i.e., by June of this year–his Twins paycheck made no sense. If there is a positive byproduct of the Twins fire sale, this is it: it enabled them to get out from under Correa’s contract that would have impacted their payroll for the next three years. As it is, they are paying the Astros $30 million to take him off their hands. Between frequent injuries, diminished power, advancing age and his veteran’s lackadaisical lack of hustle, Correa was no longer someone to build the team around.
The logic behind trading free-agents-to-be once the playoffs are out of reach is clear; hence the remaining moves are easier to justify. Also, once the team signals its intention to punt on the season, it’s only decent to let your rentals ply their trade with teams playing for a championship. There’s always the chance to reacquire them at the end of the year if so inclined. Harrison Bader, Ty France and Danny Coulombe were this-year free agents intended to plug holes and they all performed beyond expectation. I could have made the argument for re-signing any or all of them at year end, unless and until younger alternatives appeared. If any of them netted a useful prospect in return, the Twins will come out ahead. Once the Twins lost series to the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals coming out of the All-Star break, their fates were sealed.
Willi Castro and Brock Stewart both had a year-longer history with the Twins than the above trio and were among the ten most valuable Twins. Stewart’s age and injury record are excuses for letting him go. The only excuse for trading Castro is the belief that he has played so well that the Twins would not have been able to re-sign him. Last year he was the Twins’ MVP and lone All-Star, and this year he continued playing all over the field.
The trade–more like a give-away–of Chris Paddack earlier in the week was the signal that the Twins would be sellers in the market. Other than that they had no one to replace him–calling up unheralded minor leaguer Pierson Ohl to take his next start, a predictable loss–Paddack’s departure was a largely neutral event: he pitched some strong games but just as many bad ones. He filled a spot in the rotation but was not in the plans for next year, when the Twins would count on a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Matthews and Festa.
All that remains is to judge the value the Twins received, beyond substantially reducing their payroll. Of the 13 players the Twins received, maybe eight are considered Major League “prospects.” Of course, the Twins’ minor league system is littered with “prospects” who have never made the Big Leagues and never will. Then again, some of these prospects who previously failed have now been called up to fill the roster spots vacated in the purge, including Eddie Julien and Austin Martin. Clearly, the future is not now.

July 28: Waiting for what I expect to be a 4-3 loss to the BoSox I have two observations, one old, one new. The old is my frustration at Jhoan Duran’s complete inability to hold a baserunner on. In most save situations, the Twins seem willing to let any baserunner steal second, counting on Duran to strike out the batter or induce a harmless ground ball. Tonight, however, he entered the 9th in a tie game. He displayed his second weakness by walking the leadoff batter. To me, that’s a reliever’s cardinal sin. Boston’s pinch runner promptly stole both second and third base; the next batter singled him home to, essentially, decide the game. Oh, two other batters reached base and both immediately tried to steal. Luckily, Vasquez caught one. Every other pitcher works on holding the runner; why give Duran a pass?
My second thought is prompted by the Twins’ trade of starting pitcher Chris Paddack and, as an inexplicable throw-in, former starter now minor leaguer Randy Dobnak to division rival Detroit for a 19-year-old catcher/first baseman. This continues a trading deadline pattern of teams trading starters for minor league prospects–e.g. the Rockies giving the Yankees Ryan McMahon to the their new starting third baseman.  I get it that teams would rather get something for players approaching free agency when they would get nothing after the season (although I don’t understand the compensation pick rules). But surely there would be trading partners competing for someone like Paddack, who can hold down a rotation spot, and at least give a contending team pitching depth. Couldn’t the Twins get more than a single minor leaguer who might never make the team–or if he does it won’t be for three or four more years? Given the paucity of arms in the Twins’ farm system, I was hoping they could get at least two pitching prospects, not a part-time catcher.

July 21: Any thoughts that the Twins would turn around their season with the weak schedule following the All-Star break were quickly dashed by consecutive blowout losses to the Colorado Rockies, on pace to the worst record in modern history. As expected, the Twins won the third game behind their ace Joe Ryan, but they can only count on him every five days–and even then he could be facing Tarik Skubal. Chris Paddack, who has shown signs of competence, effectively ended the Twins’ season by giving up four runs to the first four Rockies hitters he faced coming out of the break. Normally reliable Brock Stewart lost the second game by giving up a two-out three run homer, which turned an initial 3-0 Minnesota lead into a 6-3 deficit. If the Twins hitters had more pluck or luck that might not have mattered, but they have been streaky, at best, all year, and it appears they will remain that way.
Now, the interest is in what moves the Twins will make before the end-of-month trading deadline. It would be foolhardy to give up value for a short-term asset in the hope of reaching this year’s playoffs. The question is, what could they get for a valuable piece, like Griffin Jax or, my preferred trade target, Jhoan Duran. Louie Varland seems ready to assume the closer role and Duran, despite good statistics, makes me nervous. Harrison Bader and Ty France, free-agents-to-be, are mentioned as trade bait, but it’s hard to envision much value coming in return. And I do like both of them, as well as Kody Clemens, among the marginal Twins who’ve made this year somewhat enjoyable.

July 17: Hooray for the two Twins All-Stars! Joe Ryan pitched a 1-2-3 4th inning with two strikeouts, looking as dominant as any AL hurler. Byron Buxton lined out to left then doubled to right, igniting the AL’s 9th-inning rally that tied the game, scoring the fifth run with a smile on his face. But someone please tell me: what was Aaron Boone doing, hitting Jonathan Aranda, with 11 home runs for the season, cleanup in the homer-off instead of Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh, with 38 dingers. That would have made a fun All Star finish a classic.

July 13: Against all my expectations, Byron Buxton has turned himself into a good hitter. He has always been an elite defender, although with the recent arrival of several sensational new centerfielders he is no longer nonpareil there. But in past years he has seemed vastly overpaid because 1) he has missed more games than he has played, due to a series of unrelated injuries, and 2) he inevitably strikes out when facing a good pitcher in any important situation. My least favorite moment from Twins games of the last decade has been watching Buxton trudge back to the dugout after striking out, looking over his shoulder–at what, home plate, the opposing pitcher? Never the kind of disappointment or anger at himself you sometimes see from others; more a look of bewilderment, as in ‘how could that happen?’ I’ll tell you how: you continually wave at breaking balls off the outside corner, except when you’re watching a fastball down the middle. Clark Griffith long ago told me that Buxton would never be a good Major League hitter because of some flaw in his swing, but I never knew exactly what that was.
This year, however, Buxton has 1) largely remained healthy, even eschewing the DH role he was accorded last year, and 2) developed a feel for the strike zone, taking walks and laying off the low, outside breaking balls. In the past, he punished mistakes, and he’s doing that again, regularly striking balls at over 100 mph. But he’s also hitting some good pitches by some good pitchers. In short, he has become a force at the top of the Twins lineup, and once he gets on base his speed is another weapon: so far he has stolen 18 bases without being thrown out.
All this is a lead-in to one of the most remarkable moments I’ve witnessed in a baseball game, which occurred in yesterday’s win over the Pirates. In his first at-bat Buxton beat out a routine grounder to shortstop! Next at-bat drove the ball over the centerfielder’s head and raced to a triple. His third time up he hit a ball to the left-center gap that might have been his second triple, except that the ball bounced into the stands for a ground-rule double. The announcers quickly noted that Buxton was 3/4 of the way to a “cycle,” with the hardest part, the triple, already in the books. With the Twins winning big, Buxton’s fourth at-bat came early, in the fifth inning. He lined a single to left–no cycle, but a not-bad 4-for-4 day at the plate. There would be one more chance, which came around in the seventh, with everyone hoping for the impossible: a home run on demand. Strike one. Strike two. Then a fastball or sinker at the bottom of the strike zone: Buxton swung, the ball flew out to centerfield, going, going, gone into the batter’s eye greenery, 15 feet over the farthest fence in the park. The first cycle in Target Field history.

July 6: Now that my hopes for a championship season, never high, are gone (although the AL title appears wide open for the taking by someone this year), I can enjoy Twins games for their own merits, not concerned with what a win or loss does to their standing. On that score, their series this weekend with Tampa Bay was quite fun. The opener was won by a walk-off homer by Harrison Bader after coming back from 3-1 down. The next game was even better: down 5-1, at which point I wrote the Twins off, they came back to a tie on a Royce Lewis line drive and a totally unexpected three-run homer by Kody Clemens. In the 9th, Buxton walked, went to third on Castro’s ground ball single to right and scored the winning run when Brooks Lee laid a bunt down the first base line on the first pitch he saw. The kind of small ball Twins fans have been asking for, in vain, for years. The Twins lost the final game, but only after a two-run pinch-hit home run by Bader, again, tied the score at 4. (The Rays had taken the 4-2 lead cheaply, on a pair of swinging bunts.) Reduced to using Justin Topa in the 10th, who hurt his cause with a throwing error on a bunt, the Twins fell 7-5. But it was a fun game.

July 1: The Twins reached the season’s halfway point with encouraging wins over division leaders Seattle and Detroit. Throw in the next game and the Twins could point to stellar starts by Ryan, Woods-Richardson and Festa, which gave hope that the pitching implosion earlier in the month was an aberration. Then, unfortunately, Bailey Ober continued his mysterious inability to do anything but throw gopher balls and a decent Chris Paddack start meant nothing when opposed by Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The hitting malaise prompted by Skubal  traveled with the team to Miami, where Ryan’s one-run outing was wasted. So, my faint glimmer of hope has faded, and I am reconciled to, at best, a .500 year for Minnesota.
That wouldn’t be the end of the world–everybody can be average; what bothers me is the lack of hope I see for the future. Watching Recap on mlb.tv each morning I am impressed with the young players almost every team has: Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourios, just to name players named “Jackson.” Who do the Twins have? St. Paul is full of “future Twins” who didn’t make it: Austin Martin, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda. The bright lights of spring training that were given a shot–DeShawn Keirsay, Mickey Gasper–came and went without an impact. There is literally no one at Triple-A that I can’t wait to see. What about young Twins on the roster that could develop? Brooks Lee’s hitting has improved this year. If he can be made the regular second baseman he could turn into a solid cog. That depends largely on Royce Lewis’s ability to 1) stay healthy and 2) emerge from his almost year-long slump. In short, while other teams are getting better, or at least more interesting, what we see now for Minnesota is all we’re likely to get for some time to come. Larnach and Wallner are what they are, .250 streak hitters who will never rise above average. The Athletic had a great article with data showing that Correa left his reputation for clutch hitting in Houston; he has been one of the worst since coming to the Twins. My eyeball said that; statistics confirm it. Willi Castro, Ty France, Ryan Jeffers, Harrison Bader, even Byron Buxton are well into their careers and aren’t going to suddenly get better. The Twins do have good pitchers, and if Ober can figure something out the pitchers will keep them in most games. I only wish they had a better, or at least more interesting, offense.

June 24: An interesting counterpoint: yesterday Emilio Pagan closed out a Reds win over the Yankees; today Jhoan Duran singlehandedly lost a game to the Mariners. Like everyone else, I was happy to see Pagan leave the Twins, where he had lost several key winnable games in midseason, sabotaging their season, a year after he had excelled for the Orioles. Now Cincinnati has reclaimed him as their closer; although his statistics aren’t remarkable, he does have 18 saves (against 3 blown saves) and an excellent o.85 WHIP. Duran, who somehow was given the Reliever of the Month award in May, has been horrendous this month. At the moment, he is clearly the fourth best reliever for Minnesota, and you wonder how long Baldelli will continue him in the closer role. Earlier in the season Baldelli spread around the closing opportunities. That seems the best strategy again, although I’m not sure I’d trust Duran even in an earlier inning.
Tonight Varland, Jax and Stewart threw relatively stress-free innings, holding Seattle to a 5-5 stalemate. That left the 9th for Duran, and I was nervous from the first pitch. (It also begged the question: if Duran held and the game went into extra innings, who would pitch for Minnesota?) He got the first batter out on a scorching line drive that Brooks Lee caught with a dive.  With an 0-2 count on the next batter he spiked a breaking ball onto Polanco’s foot. A ground-ball single–a Duran specialty this year–put runners on the corners. Then he hit another batter. A long sacrifice fly basically decided the outcome. Duran got out of the inning with the bases still loaded, avoiding disaster. But with the Twins’ usual 9th-inning flailing the loss was assured. I have as little confidence in Duran as my closer as I had with Pagan back in the day.

June 22: When you get 18 hits and still lose, for a series sweep, you know you’re in trouble. Three quick observations: the Twins pitching staff, formerly the team’s strength, has fallen apart. Every starter has lost his most recent outing, and both David Festa and Simeon Woods-Richardson appear not ready, if they ever will be, for a Major League rotation. There hasn’t been a “quality start” in two weeks. The offense still lacks a clutch hitter. Even when the Twins are scoring runs, they are leaving many more on base, often loaded. Byron Buxton is on a home-run tear, but they come with no one on base and rarely in a clutch situation. Today, with the tying run on second in the 9th, Wallner popped up and Larnach struck out looking. Third, the defense is sloppy. Partly this may be due to Baldelli’s practice of giving players a different position to play each game. Who’s at second? Lee? Clemens? Castro? Another part may be the inevitable lack of confidence instilled by losing eight of nine games in a row. One last point: the Twins continue to play boring baseball. Other teams bunt runners over, pull off double steals and cause balks, put the ball in play, build rallies. There’s no sparkplug on the Twins: no Nick Punto or what’s-his-name “Tortuga.” Harrison Bader is about the only one offering excitement. Oh, well.

June 18: The only comforting thing about the Twins’ six-game losing streak is that the Yankees have also lost six straight. Plus, they were shut out three times in a row, ending a 30-inning scoreless streak tonight.

June 15: I’ve never been convinced that Jhoan Duran was the closer the Twins needed, despite the supposedly nasty “splinker” and 100+ fastball in his arsenal. It never looks like he knows where the ball is going, and his face conveys none of the confidence you want in your closer. Watching Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase and a half-dozen of the other established closers you can see the difference. Yesterday and today he blew two great starts, by Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods-Richardson, just when the Twins needed a pick-me-up. Instead, they are now officially in free fall and will be a .500 team very soon. The first rule for a closer is, Don’t walk the leadoff batter in the 9th, but Duran just did that twice. It’s especially stressful when, problem two, you have no pickoff move or ability to hold the runner at first. I’ll bet the steal rate when Duran is pitching is between 95 and 100%. When the lead is two or three, you can wave that base off as unimportant, but it has become a habit that Duran can’t break when it’s important, as it was today. When Duran came up, his ability to throw 100+ was unusual and helped him get strikeouts. It’s no longer unusual, and his velocity has dropped to, more often, 99. In any case, hitters seem better able to handle his fastball, and in fact he now relies more on his breaking ball, which unfortunately he has trouble controlling. In fairness, he is often getting beat on ground balls that turn into hits. But still, they are turning into hits. Last year I would’ve preferred Griffin Jax as my closer. This year I’d use Louie Varland. But where, then, would you use Duran?

June 13: It turns out the Twins pitching staff was a finely tuned vehicle and once a wheel came off the whole thing collapses. The wheel in this case was Pablo Lopez; he was not always great, or as great as his reputation as the putative ace, but he took the ball every five days and delivered six or seven solid innings. Shortly after, Zebby Mathews, who hasn’t been great but has shown potential, went on the IL too. What this did was put more–too much–pressure on the remaining starters. When Simeon Woods-Richardson was called up and quickly imploded, the pressure built. Then formerly reliable Bailey Ober, who has arguably been the most consistent pitcher over the last year, mentioned a hip injury that may or may not have contributed to a loss of already low velocity. He was rocked by the formerly offense-challenged Rangers. Now tonight Chris Paddack, who has been excellent for more than a month, has just been socked for five runs in the first two innings by the Astros. When the Twins starters falter, Rocco brings in his second-line relievers: the result was a 16-4 and 16-3 loss to Texas, which has to do something to the team’s former confidence. Joe Ryan, the Twins’ best All-Star prospect, is the only starter left with an intact reputation. But even if he pitches well, there’s no guarantee his teammates will score enough runs behind him. The summer is suddenly looking awfully long.

June 6: The Twins come home after a 5-5 road trip, their longest for 2025, without significant change in the standings–they bounce back and forth with the Guardians for second in the AL East–but with some positive clarity in their roster and one big question mark. I didn’t mind the losses: they were well played games against tough opponents–Tampa Bay and Seattle in their parks–and the Twins showed an unusual comeback ability in tying all three games against the Mariners in the 9th inning. Kody Clemens and the returning Matt Wallner suddenly give manager Baldelli solid options all over the field, even at catcher where Christian Vasquez is showing some life. The Minor League fill-ins–DaShawn Keirsey, Ryan Fitzgerald, Mickey Gasper–are gone, and the promising Luke Keaschall is still on the horizon to enliven the dog days of August. Royce Lewis ended his horrendous 0-for-32 slump and is still far from the force he once was. I will say that he has hit more hard balls that were outs than was probable; but if his hard hits are all ground balls to short and line drives to left that won’t change fast enough.
On the pitching side, Joe Ryan has been an All-Star, Bailey Ober has pulled his weight and Chris Paddack has been a revelation. When Pablo Lopez was eating innings the Twins, regardless of the fifth starter, had a dominant pitching staff. The relievers, minus Jorge Alcala, put up strong numbers, often filling in four innings in close games. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Topa have been more or less reliable. Without Coulombe they are short a lefty, and they could use a long reliever if they could jettison Alcala. The big question is whether the Twins will survive losing Lopez for two months. Zebby Mathews is starting to grow into the fifth starter spot. David Festa was pitching even better than Mathews in Triple-A, but he was rocked when he took Lopez’s spot yesterday. One hopes it was an aberration, just as Mathews suffered in his debut. The bottom line: the Twins look competitive. We’ll see how they do when they play the Tigers and Yankees.

May 31: If last night’s game in Seattle was for real, then these are not your 2024 Twins. Earlier this year and for the last several years, a 9th-inning comeback was not in the Twins DNA. Going meekly was almost their trademark. But last night, down 6-3 with two outs against the league’s best closer, who had yet to be scored upon all year, they scored three times to tie the game. Willi Castro hitting his second home run of the night was surprise enough, but then Byron Buxton, usually a sure strikeout in the clutch, singled and stole second. Trevor Larnach singled him home with his third hit of the game. What made the comeback even more remarkable was that the Twins had come back from a 4-0 1st inning deficit to 4-3 only to see Cole Raleigh hit a two-run homer off Cole Sands in the 8th, the kind of deflating knockout punch that generally puts the Twins to sleep. Jhoan Duran threw a clean 9th and the Twins exploded for six runs in the 10th, with Correa, Buxton and Larnach each driving in two. Everyone had a good game except, another surprise, Kody Clemens, who had been carrying the Twins the last two weeks. As we know, momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher, but this result has to boost everyone’s confidence, which can only make the Twins play better. Now if Wallner returns and hits as well as he has on his rehab assignment, if Zebby Mathews builds on the six shutout innings he threw after the disastrous 1st, if Royce Lewis tries to hit up the middle or to right instead of rolling over and hitting ground balls to short (and if no one gets hurt)…

May 27: The Twins have reverted to their early-season formula of limited offense and shaky relief work, losing 7-2 in Tampa Bay thanks to Brock Stewart, Kody Funderburk and, more surprisingly, Trevor Larnach. The very inning he was shifted to leftfield from right, the Rays hit three long flies that resulted in four runs. Harrison Bader would have caught two, possibly all three. It felt like watching instant replay!
If that was the kind of thing I’d never seen before, there was an even odder moment when Baldelli challenged a Tampa Bay runner who went back to first on a pickoff attempt then scampered to second when the throw was bounced past the first baseman. It seems Baldelli contended that the runner had past first base, into foul territory, then reversed toward second without retouching the bag. Who knew such was required? Neither of the announcers had heard of such a rule. We all know that when a runner passes second base and has to return to first – e.g., when an outfielder makes a surprising catch – the runner has to retouch second. But why would such a rule apply to a runner that goes backward to first base? Perhaps I’ll learn more in the future.

May 22: The Twins’ 13-game win streak was undoubtedly as much an aberration as their 7-15 season start; so I will put both in the rear-view mirror and look at the 2025 season as starting now. With all the ups and downs, the Twins, Guardians and Royals have arrived at this point with roughly identical records, mostly accumulated by playing outside the division (also true for the Tigers, who have stunned the baseball savants by jumping out to the best record in the AL, a couple notches above their division rivals). As they start to have more games within the division we will see who is playoff-worthy and who will fade.
I went to Minneapolis to watch the series opener with the Guardians and unfortunately was rained out after three innings. The teams wound up splitting a doubleheader yesterday, with the rubber game postponed to later in the year. The bad news is that when the Guardians were behind 5-2 in the 9th they scored three times to tie before losing in the bottom of the inning; when the Twins were behind 5-1 in the nightcap they went meekly. So, although the teams ended up as they began, with the Twins a half-game up in the standings, the optics favored the visitors. Also troubling was the sudden reversion to bullpen weakness: after the phenomenal string of 19 scoreless relief innings, we’ve just seen Varland, Duran, Sands and Funderburk give up runs. The Twins top four starters remain the team’s main strength. Zebby Mathews was a disappointment as a replacement for Simeon Woods-Richardson, but we can still hope he will look as good as he did in spring training and at St. Paul earlier this year.
The most interesting development at this point in the Twins’ season is the role being played by players who were not on the roster, or even heard of, when the season began. Jonah Bride, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, DeShawn Keirsay, Carson McCusker and Tk Richardson all came from nowhere to start games and currently fill roster spots that should belong to Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Eddie Julien and (until he recently returned) Willi Castro. (N.B. No pitchers in the bunch.) How this will shake out over the course of the year will be fun to see, and depend partially on injuries, but it’s safe to say that the Twins in September will be different from the Twins this week. Of the newcomers, Kody Clemens has already proven worthwhile and Keaschall appears to have the highest ceiling. If Baldelli can figure out how to integrate four second basemen into his regular rotation it could be an impressive roster. Again, as always, depending on Correa and Buxton.

May 11: A seven-game winning streak brought the Twins back to .500 for the year, something that seemed remote just a week ago. Credit the pitching: the starters have uniformly kept the game close and the relievers have held every lead and, more significantly, not imploded as so often happened earlier in the season. The return of Willi Castro and Royce Lewis has brought stability to the lineup, freeing us from Eddie Julien and Mickey Gasper. The only negative is that the Tigers, Guardians and Royals have won just as often over this period. Regardless, the Twins games have become fun to watch again.

May 5: Another data point in my admittedly random study of the Twins’ practice of routinely “bringing the infield in” when there is a runner on third with less than two outs:
The Red Sox got the first two men on in the second inning(!), behind 1-0. They successfully bunted(!) the runners over (a play the Twins scorn). The next batter hit a high chopper that bounced over the drawn-in shortstop’s head and two runs scored. Had the infield been in regular position, only one run (at most) would’ve scored and an out would have been recorded. My two takeaways: when there is a runner on second as well as third, the risk/reward ratio goes against bringing the infield in. Two, the second inning of a 1-0 game is too early to worry about a single run–i.e., the runner on third.
The previous few games highlighted another regular strategic mistake by the Twins, their automatic use of the “run-on-contact” play when they have a runner on third with less than two outs. When Buxton was the runner he scored, barely. When France and Jeffers were the runners, they were out by a mile, killing Twins’ rallies. The clear corollary: when a slow-to-average runner is on third, the old adage–wait to see if the ball gets through–should apply.  As for the Twins’ 2-1 series win at Fenway Park, it’s nice to see some life from the Twins offense–e.g, yesterday was the first game they have won after being behind in the 6th inning!–and the imminent return of Lewis and Castro will at least make them more interesting. The route to the playoffs, however, seems fairly well blocked by Detroit’s strong start and solid roster, not to mention that Cleveland is also in the way. Still, the games can be fun.

May 2: When the Twins won six of seven, admittedly against the weak opposition of White Sox and Angels, the season appeared to have some promise. Four straight losses, against the Guardians and now the Red Sox, have brought us back to what seems to be the reality of 2025: these Twins just aren’t very good. Yes, the starting pitching is solid–Ryan, Ober, Lopez, even Paddack are keeping the Twins in every game–but relief pitching and defense continue to show cracks almost every day. And finally, worst of all, the hitting is atrocious, led by the utter lack of a reliable clutch hitter. Buxton and Correa have the best recent averages, but both are prone to strike out amid rallies. Due to injuries, the Twins are playing journeyman Minor Leaguers–Mickey Gasper, Jonah Bride and Kody Clemens, to name names. Eddie Julien shouldn’t be starting either (and was the obvious goat tonight). One hopes that Royce Lewis and Willi Castro will soon return, at which point some or all of the players just named can be sent to St. Paul.

April 21: The Twins’ collapse alluded to in the previous post was deeper and more profound than anticipated. Being swept by an Atlanta team that was in last place in its division offers little hope for all-important upcoming series with the even more lowly  White Sox, but that’s all we’ve got. An interesting subplot is the instant success of Luke Keaschell, who was supposed to be a year or two away from the majors. Not only is he the Twins’ leading hitter after three games, his at bats are professional, he’s got good speed and a great body and hair. How they use him, or even whether they keep him, once Wallner returns will be telling. Both Wallner and Larnach are decent players, but neither shows signs of stardom, whereas Keaschell’s  ceiling is already much higher. And then there’s Harrison Bader, who has quickly become a fan favorite with his hustle and who, until Buxton hit a meaningless homer in yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, was leading the team with three home runs! Already, Bader had been spoken of as midseason trade potential, which Keaschell’s showing, if it continues, in the bigs or St. Paul, would make even more likely.

April 18: The Twins finally showed some life by taking a series, 2-1, from the NL-leading Mets. The starting pitching was excellent, but that hasn’t been the problem. I don’t think any starter gave up more than a run the last time through the rotation. Relievers have been mostly good, but with the starter generally leaving after five and Baldelli insistent on not using a reliever more than an inning at a time, it has meant that the Twins have to have clean outings from at least four separate relievers. If a reliever is on three out of four times, that means that there will be one slip-up per game. In the finale against the Mets, normally reliable Griffin Jax came in to protect a 3-0 lead in the 8th and gave up four hits and three runs. Duran and Sands pitched a scoreless 9th and 10th and the Twins walked it off, but it was harder than it should have been. As I watch the Twins playing the Braves tonight, they once again are turning over a three-run lead to the bullpen for four fraught innings. If the Twins hitters could add on late-inning runs I’d breathe more easily, but for some reason their offense is generally limited to early in the game.

PS: Hate to say “I told you so,” but the problems I just identified caused an excruciating loss. Baldelli pulled Paddack after five dominant innings. He didn’t let Varland or Coulombe go more than one inning. His third reliever, Jax again, gave up the 4-1 lead and his replacement, Sands, gave up two more, transposing a comfortable 4-1 win into a 6-4 loss when the Twins did nothing in their 9th. Once again, they scored four runs in the first four innings then went 1-for-16 the rest of the way. I want to check box scores tomorrow to see 1) how many managers let their relievers pitch more than one inning, and 2) if the Twins are last in the Majors in home runs.

April 14: One day after playing what manager and broadcasters called their best game of the year, a 5-1 win over Detroit, the 2025 Twins were back today, looking terrible in a 5-1 loss to the Mets, with three hits, 13 strikeouts and two errors. When a Twins pitcher airmailed an easy throw to first, allowing a run to score, the Mets broadcaster commented, “You come to a town where the team is 5-12 and you see why.” Indeed.

April 9: Keeping track, as promised, the Twins lost yesterday when Bobby Witt Jr. scored from third on a ground ball to a drawn-in infield. The strategy didn’t hurt, but neither did it help. As for the Twins’ play  over the last four games, their lack of hitting seems to be a permanent feature, not just the result of a slow start. They won one game with a six-run inning, but the bats were quiet for the other eight frames. Most disturbing was the rubber game with the Astros when the Twins got off to a 7-1 lead in four innings, which should have decided the day (and would have if the Twins had been the team on the short end). The Astros, still very professional, outscored the Twins 8-0 from there. Most disheartening to this fan is the Twins’ general inability to rally in the 8th and 9th innings, as well as any extras. In the Astros’ 10th, they started with a successful sacrifice bunt, then threw in a couple stolen bases–all plays foreign to the Twins–to score twice. When it came the Twins’ turn, their ghost runner never left second base. Some teams just consistently put the ball in play, which is at least fun to watch and often produces results. The Twins still bat Byron Buxton third or leadoff, where he struck out four times yesterday.

April 4: The dispiriting thing about the Twins’ Home Opener loss to Houston is not the 5-2 score or the failure of Joe Ryan, but how boring the game was. The Twins put together a fun first at bat: Wallner triple, Buxton infield single and stolen base, Larnach rbi single. The next eight innings – nada. Nothing to see here.
On defense, though, one topic for further discussion: with the scored tied, the Astros put runners on second and third, courtesy of a Ryan hit batter and balk. Although ony the fourth inning, the Twins played the infield in, as they do invariably. A ground ball just beyond Correa’s reach resulted in two runs and, essentially, the Houston victory. Had the infield not been in, the grounder most likely would have resulted in an inning-ending double play. For some time I have felt that the Twins are burnt by playing the infield in, but they must have analytics that show otherwise. I will try to note this year when the strategy is effective and when, as yesterday, it is counterproductive. I certainly think that when there is a runner on second as well as first, the damage to be done must outweigh the chance of preventing a run.

April 3: My low expectations dropped even further when the Twins went to Chicago and instead of having the horrendous White Sox cure their ills, they played terribly, two hits and 13 strikeouts and an ineffective Chris Paddack, and fell to last place, 0-4. On Tuesday, however, their luck turned, and an opposite field doink by Jose Miranda scored the runs for their first win. Then Wednesday everything clicked: Pablo Lopez looked the ace he’s supposed to be,Byron Buxton hit his first home and Carlos Correa collected his first two hits. The defense was sharp, Jhoan Duran threw a clean inning, and Harrison Bader emerged as an offensive force, hitting his third multi-run, albeit meaningless, home run. Miraculously, the Twins find themselves, despite a 2-4 record, in a five-way tie for first in the Central Division.

March 29: So much for the notion that the Twins might have the best bullpen in the league. Jorge Alcala looked like a Minor League call-up, as he did all last year, and Jhoan Duran, who had an ERA over 5.00 in non-save situations last year, started down that path again this year, unable to finish the inning he was assigned to keep him sharp. Louie Varland looked good for two hitters, then gave up the game-deciding hit. Griffin Jax, the only sure thing, gave up a home run in his inning yesterday. Maybe they will all try harder if they are given a lead to protect, but when will that happen? Maybe in the upcoming series with the White Sox. For now, the offense is as feeble as predicted. And the contrast with the Cardinals, who have exciting players who can run, play defense and make contact, is stark.

March 28: Two takeaways from Opening Day: Pablo Lopez secured his spot as a non-ace for the Twins. How this will be recognized once Opening Day is over and the rotation rotates I don’t know, but next year I will expect to see Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan open the season. The second disappointment is the 11 strikeouts for the Twins. I was hoping that their “make-contact” philosophy would cut down on double-digit strikeout games, but so far no results. (By contrast, the Cardinals had only 5 K’s against Lopez and several strikeout-dominant Twins relievers.)

Twins Preview 2025

Rarely have I looked forward to a season with less enthusiasm and optimism than I have for the 2025 Twins. Their collapse at the end of last year is still bitter in my mouth and I wonder where to look for improvement. Their strategic plan for 2025 comes down to two propositions: 1. We expect everyone to be better than they were last year . 2. We expect everyone to be, if not healthy all season, at least healthier than they were last year. The problem with 1. is that these are not young players we are talking about. Most have been in the majors three or more years and have track records that so far aren’t trending up. The problem with 2. is that Royce Lewis already hurt himself just running to first base, Byron Buxton’s fragility is legendary, Carlos Correa is showing why the Giants and Mets opted out of deals for health concerns, and baseball players in general don’t get through a season uninjured anymore (why is another question). The Twins did nothing to upgrade the roster in the offseason and in fact lost two regulars, Max Kepler and Carlos Santana. Despite my pessimism, many commentators are picking the Twins to win their division, but mainly because their competition appears even weaker.

The Twins’ strength is their pitching, and good pitching should keep them in most games, which means the season should at least be entertaining. The designated ace, Pablo Lopez, can get anybody out when he has to but has the depressing tendency of giving up a big inning when he’s not focusing. He can beat anyone, but he’s not a stopper. The most reliable starter is Bailey Ober, with Joe Ryan just behind him. Both have fastballs that batters can’t catch up to, even though they’re not throwing in the high ’90s. Chris Paddack is a wild card, injured the last two years. Simeon Woods-Richardson must be better than he has shown, because he’s been awarded a spot in the rotation over the more promising Zebby Mathews and David Festa, both of whom we will see a lot of as the season goes on and injuries mount. The Twins claim to have the best bullpen in the league, which is true if you take everyone at their best. One thing I’ve learned about relievers, however, is that past performance is no guarantee of future success, and their career peaks tend to be short. I’m most worried about Jhoan Duran, the putative closer, who never looks relaxed or confident on the mound. For some reason his velocity went down last year, his breaking ball became hittable and his control wavered. There were very few clean innings when he came in, which made the ends of games nerve-wracking. Griffin Jax had the most success and could wind up closing, but he experienced bumps along the way. Beyond them are pitchers who could be very good but aren’t sure things, with Brock Stewart and Cole Sands leading the way. Unfortunately, the relief corps does not include a shut-down lefty, especially as manager Rocco Baldelli invariably brings in a southpaw to face a lefty hitter whenever he can, regardless of the hitter’s historical success against southpaws. Who will be the dependable relievers is a story to be told, with arms currently in the minor leagues undoubtedly having a role to play.

The Twins’ weaknesses are their hitting, defense and baserunning. Management made a point over the winter of saying, we’re changing our hitting philosophy, and indeed they fired all three hitting coaches. No more swing for the fences and not worry about strikeouts; now we will concentrate on making contact. From what I saw in spring training, the strikeouts are still coming. Partly that is due to the general improvement in pitching throughout baseball, but it still makes the game less fun to watch. In the outfield it’s not clear that either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner will be an improvement over Kepler, who kept failing to live up to his potential and had to be replaced. Wallner hits the ball as hard and far as anyone and should lead the team in home runs, but both he and Larnach can be struck out when needed. The same is true, but moreso, with Buxton, who has good streaks but can fan three times a game and is not someone you want at the plate in a clutch situation. Speaking of defense, Jose Miranda is a natural for DH, although with Lewis out he will have to man third base (where he’s at least better than at first). Correa is the Twins’ best all-around player, but he has yet to play with the Hall of Fame consistency he showed as an Astro. He will play solid shortstop and hit .275-.280, but he won’t scare anyone and doesn’t give the Twins the Bobby Witt Jr. or Jose Ramirez star power his contract calls for. The Twins did add two minimum-salary-type veterans: Harrison Bader should be a competent backup for Buxton and spell a corner outfielder when facing a tough lefty. Ty France had about the best spring of any Twin and, if lucky, could be the surprise at first that Santana was last year. The catching duo of Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez should be no better, but no worse, than last year, ho-hum. Second base is the principal uncertainty, with Willi Castro, Eddie Julian and Brooks Lee all probably getting turns in the hope that one will overperform. The bottom line is, the Twins don’t have a dependable slugger, a dependable contact hitter, a dependable base stealer, a dependable clutch hitter or a dependable run producer. They will lose games because they won’t score enough runs to back up their pitchers. It’s especially noticeable when they are behind in the 9th inning and go out meekly.

I hope I’m wrong, but I expect too many 3-2 losses, where we just made one bad pitch or couldn’t get that one big hit. Play ball!

Vikings Prediction

I don’t use this space to make one-day predictions, but I am stunned that so many commentators are giving the Vikings any chance against the Packers tomorrow. Haven’t they noticed the comparative scores? The Packers have been demolishing opponents, while the Vikings have been squeaking by. The Vikings’ eight-game win streak has come against the weakest of opponents, and their early-season wins were against backup quarterbacks. They haven’t been a quality opponent all year. Yes, they beat the Packers in Green Bay, but that was early in the season and the Packers were without Jordan Love. Other than that, the Packers have lost only to the superior Lions and Eagles (whom the Vikes didn’t play). The game is in Minnesota, which should help the Vikings, but they’ve lost plenty of times to the Pack at home, and I expect it to happen again.

PS: I’m of course delighted that the Vikings proved me wrong and beat the Packers, 27-25. Once again, though, they failed to dominate despite building a healthy lead and could easily have lost at the end. In short, the win left me without confidence in their chances against the Lions next Sunday, or even when they start the Playoffs. I also want to cast some shade on all the praise being thrown Sam Darnold’s way. Yes, he threw three TD passes, only one of which was hard, but he also almost singlehandedly threw the game away in the fourth quarter. (I say “almost singlehandedly” because kicker Will Reichard shares some blame for clunking his 45-yard field goal attempt off an upright: a 5-point lead at the end would have felt far more comfortable than 2 points.) First (although I’m not sure of the order), Darnold threw an interception when the Vikings held a 27-10 lead and were cruising to the finish line. This not only gave the Packers a short field for a touchdown but shifted the momentum. I don’t know how much the interception was Darnold’s fault–he threw it where we wanted–or how much it was a bad call or just a good play by the off-ball defensive back; but it’s on his record. The next, and even more crucial, error was a legitimately bad throw (announcer Tom Brady graded it a “D”) that went over Justin Jefferson’s leap on a third-down play when they Vikes had a chance to regain momentum and basically ice the game. Jefferson was open and it was Darnold’s worst throw of the day. Unless, perhaps, you give that designation to the game-winning soft toss to Cam Akers on third-and-two with less than two minutes to play. With no defender in the vicinity, Akers had to stop in his tracks, lean back and grab the short toss before it hit the ground. Darnold has been good, but he hasn’t yet shown me that he is a closer. Or worth mortgaging the future on.

Timberwolves ’24

Like all fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves I had high expectations for their 2024-25 season, coming off their surprising run to the Western Conference finals earlier this year. Surely Jaden McDaniels would grow (based on the contract they gave him); surely Anthony Edwards would continue his rise to superstardom, after his impressive stint with the U.S. Olympic basketball all-stars. Trading away Karl Anthony Towns just before the season started was a surprise, but not a bad one. Towns wasn’t going to get any better, and there was some question how well he fit in with Edwards and the uptempo style of play Coach Chris Finch was trying to install. In fact, the T’Wolves third-place finish, a game or two out of first, was accomplished largely with the injury-prone Towns out of action. In the playoffs, he had some games where he contributed, but in others he disappeared. Moreover, in sending Towns to the Knicks, the Wolves acquired Julius Randle, one All-Star for another, plus the intriguing Dante DiVicenzo, the kind of scrappy player and three-point guard the Wolves were missing.

The season started well, with predictable wins against lesser opponents, but things quickly went south, including losses in back-to-back games with Portland that most experts had thought of as gimme wins. As of this writing, the Timberwolves have been reduced to a .500 record, and given the strength of the West it’s hard to see them rising much above their middling standing in their conference. Instead of vying for dominance, I expect the year to play out as a slog to a play-in spot in the playoffs.

What’s going wrong? I’ll start with Rudy Gobert, who was inexplicably named Defensive Player of the Year last season. When it came to the playoffs, he was continually exposed by the likes of Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Kyrie Irving, all of whom moved around and shot over him at will. I have to think received those DOY votes based on his reputation and the fact that he is such a weak offensive player. McDaniels remains an enigma on offense, having a “breakout” every fourth or fifth game, but otherwise seeming to be an afterthought to the Edwards/Randle offense. Mike Conley is 38 and, yes, getting old, and DiVicenzo has yet to show much consistency. For some reason, Finch uses only three players off his bench, and they are alternately stellar or off their game, a large reason for the .500 record. The euphoria over the Wolves’ two draft choices–Dillingham and Shannon– does not seem to have reached, or affected, Coach Finch. Everyone likes to see young players develop, and over the long course of the season the regulars will need to rest. Not to mention that every team in every sport these days is struck by injuries, and there’s no reason to expect Minnesota to be exempt. From a fan’s (my) point of view, limiting the active roster to eight players makes following the team that much less interesting.

In short, my expectations for the season have been tempered. I won’t get upset, or terribly disappointed, by every loss. I trust there will be good games, times to rejoice, but unless the Wolves develop a compelling personality, like the defense they boasted last year, I’ll root but without much passion. An academic exercise.

World Series

The Dodgers’ thrilling comeback win in Game 5 of this year’s World Series highlighted one more flaw in the universe of Baseball Statistics: base hits with runners(s) in scoring position, known in box scores as RISP. The Twins have traditionally been very bad in this category, allowing manager Rocco Baldelli to make postgame comments like, “One hit here or there would have made the difference.” This glosses over the obvious facts that opposing pitchers tend to try a little harder when there are runners in scoring position, and that a mark of a good hitter is the ability to get a hit (or at least make contact) in this situation. That you did poorly with RISP may reflect the fact that the other team is just better, not that your luck was bad. (A similar situation exists in NBA games where the inferior team stays close or even leads until two minutes remain in the game.)

But getting back to the statistic itself. The Twins as a team have been notable in recent years for their lack of speed on the bases. Absence of stolen bases is one obvious result. But another less noted result is the number of base hits with RISP that don’t result in runs because the runner on second is held at third or is thrown out at the plate. Thus, even if they get an RISP hit it may not produce the result the statistic is designed to measure.

Getting back to the World Series: with the Dodgers now down 6-5 in the 8th inning, Kike Hernandez led off with a nice line drive to right. Surprise hero Tommy Edman then beat out a grounder to the shortstop hole and the next batter walked, prompting Aaron Boone to replace Tommy Kahnle with his closer Luke Weaver. Gavin Lux hit a clutch sacrifice fly that not only tied the game but moved Edman from second to third. Ohtani refilled the bases on a rare catcher’s interference and Mookie Betts, one of three Dodger MVPs, hit another sac fly to plate the Series-winning run. How many times this season in a bases-loaded-no-outs situation did I see a Twin hit an infield popup or strike out? So often that it became expected. But with the season on the line, against the Yankees’ best pitcher, two Dodgers, including their number nine hitter, came through. How is that reflected in the team’s RISP? Actually, I don’t know, but a sacrifice fly is not a hit so it wouldn’t count there. Since it’s not an official at-bat, I presume it wouldn’t count in that ledger either. Thus it would produce a nullity when in fact these were two of the most consequential, clutch plate appearances in the World Series “with runners in scoring position.”

Pelagic 2

Fifteen years ago I took my firs pelagic birding trip; I was seasick almost the whole time but was still amazed at the birds we saw, especially the beautiful Sabine’s Gull, which I had never heard of. There were also good looks at many other species, particularly Phalaropes, as we cruised along the Continental Shelf line. So I thought I would try again, this time armed with a scopalomine patch, when I got a notice from SB Audubon of a pelagic outing. Unfortunately, the seasick trip was a lot more fun.
For starters, the first trip departed Santa Barbara Harbor, whereas yesterday’s cruise left from Ventura and was a tag-on to Island Packers’ regular ferry ride for day trippers to Santa Cruz. Nevertheless the 45 birders on board had the boat for seven hours in between drop-off and pickup at Scorpion Harbor. What I hadn’t focused on, however, was the goal of this trip: to see the Booby colony on Sutile Island, which was hours of open water away from any land, or birds. Now, it’s pretty neat that Boobys have come this far north, but once you’ve seen them sitting on this big rock, there’s not much more to the experience, especially as we were a couple hundred yards away from the cliffside, and my binoculars couldn’t bring me close enough to appreciate the view of any individual. The big goal, it turns out, was finding a Blue-footed Booby amid the 100+ Brown Boobys. Our expert spotter spotted one, and was able to describe its location well enough that I could pick it out. But at that distance, it looked no different from the surrounding Brown Boobys; and when you’ve practically stepped on them in the Galapagos the identification was not exciting.
Which gets me to the main problem for me, something I’ve experienced on other birding trips (although usually assuaged by having Gary Strandemo with me): Listing. For the leaders and I don’t know how many others in our group, the larger goal was seeing how many different species you could add to your personal lists (and the leader called out each time we moved from Santa Barbara County to Ventura County for those compiling county lists). There was very little opportunity to actually watch birds. Instead, it was “There’s a Pigeon Guillemot, flying left to right” – check that box. The only birds that sat still long enough or flew close enough for me to feel I could identify them were a gaggle of terns perched on a kelp raft, and even then our leader said he would have to look at the pictures later to determine if any were the sought-after Arctic Terns. Not surprisingly, ocean birds are not colored and the distinctions among various Murrelets, Shearwaters, Storm Petrels and Jaegers are slight – too slight for a first-time observer to feel any confidence in identification. And most of them flew away as soon as we spotted them. In short, I don’t feel I could identify a single species based on this trip. And most of the “sightings” were of a dull-colored bird flying away, separated by 20 minutes or more of open water. A 9-1/2- hour boat trip that was a waste of a day. And unfortunately, probably the end of pelagic birding for me.

Minnesota Sports Fans

It is well known that Minnesota sports fans expect the worst when it comes down to a big game for their team. Whether this stems from the Vikings’ 0-4 record in early Super Bowls or a general Midwestern lack of self-confidence,  I don’t know. Nor do I know whether this defeatism is at all unique to Minnesota or is typical of small-market cities. I do know that, in contrast, New York fans expect championships from their teams, even when the Giants, Knicks and Yankees are clearly performing at sub-par levels. It was, therefore, a rare case of “euphoria,” as one columnist described it, when the stars magically aligned: the Twins put together a 12-game win streak and the Timberwolves routed their first-round playoff opponents and opened their second round with two upset wins over the Nuggets. Could this really be happening in Minnesota?
Yesterday, things were back to normal. After fooling the national media, which had overlooked them all year, to label them favorites to win the NBA championship, the T’Wolves lost the next three games, badly, to Denver. The Twins, after compiling an astonishing 16 wins in 19 games to creep within a half-game of first place in their division, came home to face their nemesis, the Yankees, and fell flat. Minnesotans are free to despair once again.

Timberwolves

June 1: I don’t feel at all bad that the Timberwolves lost to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. I’m sorry they didn’t win a second game and glad they at least won one. Dallas was clearly the superior team: not only did Doncic and Irving outperform Edwards and Towns, their secondary players–Gafford, Washington, Lively–were more impactful than any of the other Wolves, whose bench, and supposed defensive mainstay Gobert, notably underperformed. Dallas also had a more appealing style of play. Doncic led each game in assists, many of the colorful variety, while the Wolves continued their isolation ball play that turned me off in the Denver series. Maybe one reason the role players didn’t contribute is because they were left out of the action once Edwards or Towns got the ball and decided it was up to them to drive to the basket or shoot from distance. Of course the reverse could be true: Edwards and Towns may have felt they had to do it on their own because they couldn’t count on anyone else to make a shot. If someone like Alexander-Walker had gotten a hot hand, instead of whiffing every time, you wonder if the Wolves’ style of play, as well as their chances, might have changed. You also wonder why the Wolves are paying seven players who aren’t used in the playoffs. The third reason I’m not upset is that I wouldn’t want to see the Wolves lose to the Celtics in the Finals.

May 13: Although last night’s playoff loss to the Nuggets was the first Wolves game I have watched in its entirety this year, I feel qualified, and compelled, to make some observations.
The Wolves lost because the Nuggets hardly missed a shot, however difficult, shooting well over 60% for most of the game. The Wolves, by obvious contrast, shot poorly, missing the open three-pointers that Denver invariably made. Aaron Gordon, for one, made 11 of 12 shots. The Nuggets were more than 10% ahead of the Wolves in shooting, three-point and foul shot stats. No matter how much energy you play with, it’s hard to overcome those odds.
Anthony Edwards is the real deal. He is one of those players–LeBron, Kobe, MJ, Harden, et al.–who can scored singlehandedly whenever he wants (which is one of the things I don’t like about NBA basketball). He can drive to the hoop and score with either hand, or both. He can stop and pop anywhere in mid-range after dazzling dribbling. And he can swish long three-pointers without hesitation. And make his foul shots. It’s an irony of last night’s loss that the fatal sequence at the end of the half–a seven-point swing–that almost matched the final deficit–resulted from his losing the ball trying for the last shot.
Rudy Gobert’s DPOY award comes from reputation, not actual impact. His defense was not a factor in the game. He simply couldn’t guard Nikola Jokic and he left the rim unprotected numerous times. He doesn’t have the footwork or speed to match up with many players he switches on to, nor does he have the height and lift of someone like Wembanyana, whom he beat for the defensive award, to block or alter shots.
Jaden McDaniels is the black hole of the starting five. A year ago he was considered a cornerstone of the future, a running mate for Edwards and Towns as the Wolves built their team. All this year I’ve read of his superlative defense: the Wolves had enough scorers without him and he could justify his starting role with his cementing defense. Last night I saw none of it. And the Nuggets left him alone in the corner on offense, hoping he would shoot. Which he did, and missed. You could sense his lack of confidence. And considering that Denver was scoring every time down the court, each McDaniels miss was a killer. It will be interesting to see if the Wolves try to upgrade this position next year, although with only the 27th pick in the draft it will be hard, or change their rotation.
Karl Anthony Towns was almost singlehandedly responsible for the loss. It’s not just that he shoot poorly–1-for-10 in the first half–it was his attempts at playing isolation ball instead of letting the offense flow that knee-capped the Wolves in the early going. His specialty is the three-point shot, but he made only one and missed three. Too often he took it upon himself to dribble into the post and look for a lay-up or short floater. His dribble is so high and his moves so ponderous that the Nuggets easily collapsed on him and left him flailing and complaining to the refs.
Speaking of the refs, there was nothing here to change my opinion that officiating plays far too big a role in the game of basketball, more than in any other sport. There is contact on virtually every play that could be called a foul, so when the ref chooses to blow his whistle is almost an arbitrary act. And the impact is outsized. For one thing, it slows the game and is of no fan interest. More important, it affects what players are on the court: two quick ticky-tack fouls in the first quarter and your star goes to the bench. It also, of course, leads to players whining, not a good look.
All that said, I don’t think the Timberwolves are out of the series. Other than some ugly stretches in the first half, they played the Nuggets even and several times threatened to get back in the game, due mainly to Edwards’s efforts. Denver won’t shoot 60% for two more games, and you have to believe that Towns, who was great in Game 2, will learn and perform better. Also Nickeil Alexander-Walker should improve on his 1-for-7 shooting and horrible passing. Clearly, where the game is played is not as important as believed, as the road team has won all four so far. I predict that the Wolves will win one of the next two and we’ll get a Game Seven, which is as it should be.

Twins Diary ’24

September 24: As the Twins’ freefall out of the wild-card race continues, what’s even more dispiriting is the view into the future. Each morning I watch Recap Rundown on mlb.com, which shows highlights of every Major League game from the day before. Time and again I am impressed by the exploits of some young player just called up from the Minors or some rookie firmly established as a budding star. None of these, however, belong to the Minnesota Twins. Sad to say, there is no young, or old, Twins hitter whom I am looking forward to seeing play in 2025. Let’s look at the roster: Two years ago, Jose Miranda was tearing up the Minors and made an impressive debut. For awhile this year he was hitting .300, but he hasn’t gotten a hit since. Royce Lewis looked like the next Mickey Mantle in his brief playing time last year. Now he looks like an incarnation of Byron Buxton: he can punish a mistake pitch, but he is oft-injured and routinely swings and misses. Brooks Lee looked like the next best thing in spring training and his first few weeks in the Bigs, but now it looks like average is his ceiling. Austin Martin is scrappy and useful to fill a hole, but the Twins have had many like that with no impact. The top-rated Minor League prospect is Walter Jenkins, a lefthanded-hitting outfielder, which means he will replicate, or replace, Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner, both of whom hit occasional home runs and bat .250.  The Twins’ best hitter for the last month has been Kyle Farmer(!), a used-up veteran with no upside anymore. Manuel Margot, who should be long gone next year, is a poor fielder and set a record by going 0-for-30 as a pinch hitter. The catchers again next year will be Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vasquez, who are competent as far as that position goes, but won’t improve or carry the team. The best free-agent signing this year was Carlos Santana, who provided stability at first base and led the team in home runs before cooling off in September, perhaps showing his age at 38. Again, it won’t get any better. And then there are the two players who consume half the team’s payroll, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Both have missed more games than they’ve played, not for the first time, and if either had a good year it would be considered a major “comeback.” The next biggest salary belongs to Max Kepler, and for that reason, among many, no one expects to see him back next year. So, where’s the energy, excitement and leadership going to come from, with the taste of this year’s horrendous collapse in everyone’s mind? They are who they are, and they aren’t very good.
What has kept the Twins competitive this year has been their starting pitching. Unfortunately, experience across the league has shown that a team needs at least eight, but more often ten, starting pitchers to get through a season. The Twins were depth-thin to begin the year, and when Joe Ryan went down it exposed their weakness at this position. For awhile Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober were two of the best, but in the stretch they have both faltered, perhaps feeling the pressure of having to carry the team. Ober, in particular, has never been given any run support to make an outing easy. There is no one in the Minors whom we can look to for next year: the Twins scraped their prospects, even from Double AA, onto the team this year, such was their desperation. David Festa and Zebby Matthews do look like they could serve in the rotation, but when someone gets hurt, or hit, there’s little behind them. I won’t go into relievers, because they generally come and go. Next year, as usual, the Twins will roll the dice and pick up five or more relievers and hope that one turns out as Brock Stewart did last year. Among the regulars, it appears Caleb Thielbar is at the end of his career. Jhoan Duran has gotten worse, not better and continues to perform like a nervous rookie. Jorge Alcala was a rising prospect until they gave up and sent him back to the Minors. Griffin Jax is the star of the bunch, but good teams have three or four Griffin Jaxes they can use.
If the Twins were the Yankees or the Dodgers, you’d expect them to go out and get some free agents over the winter, but these are the Twins. Maybe the best thing is to blow up the team and start over–look what Kansas City was able to do this year, not to mention Detroit. But the Twins don’t have a Bobby Witt Jr. coming along. They’ll have to do something to make things interesting, but this year, I suspect, has killed a lot of the fan base. Except for one 12-game win streak, it just hasn’t been much fun watching, and rooting for them in 2024.

September 14: Which team would you rather see in the Playoffs: the Tigers, who carried a no-hitter for 8-2/3 innings and beat one of the Majors’ best, the Orioles, 1-0, and have won, approximately, 13 of 18 games; or the Twins, who brought in a reliever in the 7th who promptly walked his first batter then gave up a grand slam to the second, en route to an 8-4 loss, their 13th in the last 18 games? The day before was the Twins’ best in a long time, because they didn’t play while the Royals, Tigers and Mariners all lost. No such luck yesterday, as the Twins’ lead for the last wild card spot dwindled to 2-1/2. And it should be lower by weekend’s end.

September 12: As of last Saturday, the Bailey Ober game, I started rooting for the Detroit Tigers to take the third wild-card spot (after the Yankees and Royals) in the AL. They seemed a team with spirit, on a winning streak, defying the predictions. The Twins, on the other hand, were coasting downstream, listless, without an offensive leader, without an offense. The manager was at his juggling worst. And their best relievers had just blown up. To recap: Ober was winning 2-0, pitching a one-hitter, having retired the last 15 batters in a row and thrown only 83 pitches when the 7th ended. Instead of letting him stay on for the 8th, or even go for his second complete game of the year, Rocco Baldelli thanked him and sat him down. Bad enough, but then he brings in Jhoan Duran, who has a 9.00 ERA when pitching earlier than the 9th inning (but inexplicably has a good saves ratio). Duran struck out the first batter, despite throwing all six pitches out of the strike zone., which was a sign this wasn’t his day. Then followed single, hit batter, single and run. Duran never looks confident, but this time he looked clueless. Seeing his mistake, Baldelli quickly called for his ace reliever, Griffin Jax, who proceeded to give up three more runs and escape the inning only by having an overaggressive runner thrown out at the plate. As usual, the Twins went down meekly the rest of the way. It this is how they handle the pressure of a pennant race, count me out. Having to pitch a rookie the next day made the Twins sitting ducks for a Royals sweep. Even if they limped into the Playoffs, when you lose three out of three to your closest competitor means you probably shouldn’t be there. Oh, I forgot to mention: the big hit for the Angels in the four-run inning was a soft grounder to shortstop on which third baseman Lewis, shortstop Lee and first baseman (!) Farmer all underperformed. Not exactly a Major League infield.

September 6: Alas, the Twins are no longer interesting. They are punchless, and unless Lopez or Ober is pitching a shutout there is little chance of a win. But more than that, there is no hitter whose at-bat you anticipate. I can’t think of anyone on the team who would start for, say, the Orioles, Astros or Yankees. They won the other day with Lopez pitching and a three-run homer from Eddie Julien, a freak event. Royce Lewis, who was the hope at season’s start, is struggling at the plate and, for some reason, can’t run, which makes him less than exciting to watch. I keep waiting for either Larnach or Wallner to blossom into a legitimate offensive threat, but in the meantime the top two prospects in the minors – both highly rated – are both lefthanded-hitting outfielders, so there’s a surplus there. Meanwhile, Brent Rooker, a righthanded-hitting outfielder whom the Twins gave up on in favor of Larnach/Wallner has hit another 35 homers for the lowly A’s.

August 29: Ineffective relief pitching, poor defense, lack of clutch hitting and absent baserunning combined have the Twins on a 2-8 skid. The starting pitching has been good enough, but not by itself. Analytics recently calculated a more than 90% chance for Minnesota to make the playoffs, but 1) it’s hard to see how that’s possible if they continue playing this way, and 2) it hardly matters as they’ve shown they can’t beat any of the teams they could face in the playoffs. The Red Sox and Mariners, the principal competitors, were slumping badly, but both show signs of recovering.
Watching the daily recap of MLB, it strikes me that the Twins, unlike other good teams, don’t have a feared bat in their lineup. No Yordan Alvarez, Jose Ramirez, Bobby Witt Jr., let alone Juan Soto or Aaron Judge. How they’ve managed to come this far, relying on occasional good games from the likes of Castro, Jeffers, Larnach and Santana is pretty amazing. The hope was that Royce Lewis would be that guy, but he is looking worse and worse, missing pitches by six inches, as Buxton used to do. Oh, well…

August 24: The Guardians, Royals and Twins seem to have settled into a three-way contest for the AL Central title that, I hope, will last through September and perhaps result in all three making the Playoffs (although not the Twins, if they play games like yesterday’s 6-1 loss to the Cardinals). In the spirit of rock-paper-scissors, the Twins hold an edge over the Royals, who lead their series with the Guardians who have so far destroyed the Twins. I like all three teams: the Guardians for their scrappy, put-the-ball-in-play style, the Royals for their modest payroll, the fact no one expected them to be good, their ancient leader Salvador Perez and the best player in the division, Bobby Witt Jr., and the Twins because they’re from Minnesota. The Twins, however, drive me a little crazy with their inconsistency. There’s no one on the roster you can count on to make contact, let alone get a hit, with a man on third and less than two outs, a situation that should more than occasionally produce a run. Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, Royce Lewis are all offensive threats but have all let me down more often than I can count. I like Trevor Larnach’s cool approach and sweet lefthanded swing; but after getting four hits Thursday he struck out every at bat on Friday. The starters have done their job, especially considering three of the five started the season in the minors. It’s the relief corps that matches the offense’s inconsistency. Outside Griffin Jax, usually, it’s a crap shoot whether you’ll get someone who gets three easy outs or gives up multiple runs, and that includes the closer Jhoan Duran. So as I said, I just hope the Twins can keep the rest of the season interesting.
PS: The night I wrote the above, Larnach went 3-for-4, hit two home runs off a good pitcher, Sonny Gray, and drove in four runs in the Twins’ 6-0 win. Talk about inconsistent! Oh, and in yesterday’s excruciating 3-2 loss to the not-very-good Cardinals, the Twins had runners on 3rd with one out in both the 7th and 8th innings and couldn’t score, thanks to a double play and pop-up. There they are more consisten.

August 17: Playing without Correa and Buxton the Twins have crept within 2 games of the Guardians, who earlier this week boasted the best record in MLB. This means they are relying on the likes of Eddie Julien, Christian Vazquez and Austen Martin, all of whom scored in the 8th inning today to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead on the way to a 5-2 win, the third in a row over the Texas Rangers, who give no indication of being reigning World Champions. Most surprising, the Twins are getting solid starts from four rookies. Can they keep it up? Will the team perform as well against the Yankees and other top dogs? At the moment it seems luck and mirrors, with Minnesota still evincing a tendency to let runners on third with no outs die there without scoring.

August 11: After bemoaning the Twins’ record of hitting 6-for-60 with runners in scoring position agains the Guardians, Minnesota got two such hits in the late innings today…but no runs. Which just goes to show you that statistics don’t always tell the story. Since I last wrote, the Twins suffered the big blow of losing Joe Ryan, their second or third best pitcher, for the season with a tear of a muscle I’ve never heard of. Meanwhile, another starter, Chris Paddack, is showing signs of not rejoining the rotation this year; and in the infield, Carlos Correa is taking forever to recover from plantar fasciitis and his substitute, Brooks Lee, has gone on the Injured List. Having had plantar fasciitis myself, I know it is something you can’t “treat.” It will disappear when it wants to, and Correa may not be a force again this year. The last sour note is the continuing failure of Caleb Thielbar, which means that Baldelli has no reliable lefty to bring in – and he always wants to bring in a lefty to face lefthanded hitters, even when their records show they are quite capable of hitting lefties.

July 30: As much as we purists detest bringing in a position player to pitch in the last inning when a game is out of reach, it provided about the only enjoyable moments of last night’s 15-2 Mets win over the Twins. Starter Simeon Woods Richardson gave up six runs in the 4th and formerly reliable relievers Josh Staumont and Brock Stewart gave up five and four runs, respectively, in less than an inning each. Steven Okert pitched in between and wasn’t much better, allowing two of three inherited runners to score. Wanting to save his ‘A’ relievers, Baldelli brought outfielder Matt Wallner off the bench to get the final four outs of the game. And get them he did. The two runners he inherited in scoring position did come home, but he got out of the 7th and then surrendered only one hit in the 8th. He threw mostly oofus balls, around 40 mph, but he also snuck in a couple of “fast” balls at 80, surprising everyone. Wallner had been a pitcher in college and has one of the best outfield arms in the game but was instructed not to throw hard from the mound. (Why?) You have to wonder why hitters who handled Stewart’s 95 mph pitches with ease could only hit catchable fly balls against Wallner. Surprising, and fun.

July 28: I’m ready to anoint Bailey Ober as the de facto ace of the Twins’ pitching staff. Lopez can be unhittable when he bears down, but for some reason he lets up somewhere along the line. Ober is simply business all the way. Joe Ryan has been the hard-luck pitcher this year and still deserves to be in the conversation.

July 25: Cory Provus called it the Twins’ best win of the year, and I think I know why he said it. Their 5-4 comeback over the Phillies was so unexpected–it was the kind of game the Twins have been losing for years. It wasn’t just that the Twins had fallen behind 4-1 going into the bottom of the 7th. They had demonstrated the kind of futility that gets Twins fans rightfully discouraged. Twice they had runners on first and third with one out and didn’t score. Then they loaded the bases and didn’t score. The absence of “timely hitting” has been a big bugaboo for years, maybe ever since they started relying on home runs so much. It looked like more of the same when they loaded the bases in the 7th with one out and Max Kepler hit a ground ball to first. But he beat out the relay throw and one run scored. Then Carlos Santana hit a long fly to left that the Philadelphia leftfielder Brandon Marsh misplayed for a game-tying double. In the 9th the Twins gave the ball back to Jhoan Duran, who had given up three runs in a similar situation the day before. This time, though, he did the job. Then the Twins parlayed a hit-by-pitch, wild pitch, sacrifice bunt (practically unheard of) and infield single by Kepler to walk it off.

July 22: The Twins at the All-Star break have pretty much established their identity: they’re a good team, but not elite. They can score runs but aren’t great in the clutch and they pitch well two out of three days. They will likely be in the Wild Card race until season’s end, battling with the Red Sox, Royals and Mariners; but the fact that they are 2-19 against the teams ahead of them in the standings leaves little room for expectations they will go far in the Playoffs. The most positive development so far is the emergence of Byron Buxton as a decent hitter, given how many more years the Twins are saddled to his contract. The most disheartening is their inability to stay healthy. Recurring injuries to Lewis, Miranda, Correa, Stewart, Paddack and others have kept them from fielding their A lineup even once. The most intriguing, and probably important, story for the remainder of the year will be who, if anyone, among the young players will cement their role as a future asset and become a Michael Cuddyer not a Bobby Kielty. In this large group I count Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Jose Miranda, Austen Martin, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner plus pitchers Simeon Woods Richardson, Jorge Alcala and whomever the Twins bring up to replace Paddack as a fifth starter.

July 12: A refreshing loss by the Twins last night. Although I didn’t watch it, the box score told a story more reassuring than the 7-1 defeat. They had twice as many hits (10) as strikeouts (5). What did them in was their bad performance with RISP (1-for-11), granted, a common problem. Still, as long as the offense keeps hitting they’ll do okay and normally be fun to watch. Unfortunately, Brooks Lee missed a home run by 18 inches, which ended their almost record streak of 28 straight games with a homer. Though Joe Ryan gave up most of the runs, he was let down by his defense, and he will be back.

July 5: The Twins lost to the red-hot Astros today, but I don’t mind. I didn’t even mind when they were about to lose 13-5 before they scored 7 runs in the bottom of the 9th! Why? Because they are hitting the ball, which makes the games fun. They lost today because at least four runners on third with less than two outs didn’t score, whereas Houston capitalized on almost every opportunity. Still, they got the guys to third. Oh, and Jose Miranda went 4-for-4, meaning he has gotten a hit in ten straight at bats, a Twins record. And rookie Brooks Lee, whom fans have been waiting for, is hitting over .500 after three games in the Majors. So, it’s fun. In hindsight it would’ve been nice if any of the relievers had been able to shut down the Astros, or if starter Pablo Lopez hadn’t given up six runs in five innings. But the Twins competed, and that’s all I want. At the moment they have the fourth best record in the American League. Margot and Castro had bad games, Larnach and Santana didn’t do much, but Buxton, Kepler, Vazquez and Correa all helped Miranda and Lee for the new offensive-minded Minnesota Twins.

June 28: Mid-Season Grade: B. The Twins have settled into an entertaining brand of baseball: very good pitching keeps them in most games and sporadic hitting emerges often enough to help them win two out of three from lesser teams. Their strikeouts are way down from last year, and early this year, which makes their at-bats watchable. Too many of their batters are streak hitters, and there is no consistent run-producer; so on any given night anyone can be the hero or the goat. Their relievers are okay but when three or four need to be used, one will almost always let in a run or two. No lights out. Unlike last year, there is no one on the roster that I want to get rid of, although Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot could be replaced. With the Guardians playing “A” ball, there is no chance of winning the division, but the consolation prize of a Wild Card is in play. And I can enjoy the small dramas of seeing if, and how, players such as Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Trevor Larnach and Simeon Woods Richardson develop.

June 21: The Twins’ 2-1 series loss to Tampa Bay in three one-run games exposed their current biggest weakness: a thin bullpen. The Minnesota starters, with the notable exception of purported ace Pablo Lopez, are keeping the Twins ahead or in every game until they are pulled after six or seven innings (often five or less for Simeon Woods Richardson for no good reason), and Joe Ryan is having an All-Star-worthy season despite seldom getting credit for a win. At that point, however, the game often goes in one of two ways, depending on whether Baldelli uses his “A” relievers or, if they’ve pitched too recently, goes with the “B” squad. The most painful example for me was the middle game, which Ryan left holding a 2-1 lead. Cole Sands, Steven Okert and Josh Staumont were needed to pitch the next two innings; they somehow escaped giving up only the tying run, but it took them 74 pitches, mostly balls, to get six outs. Duran, by contrast, pitched the 9th in only 10 pitches, but he can’t throw every day. Yesterday Jay Jackson gave up three runs in the 9th, which Jose Miranda miraculously erased with a two-out, two-strike home run, which resulted in Jackson’s finally getting a one-way ticket out of town. Kelly Funderburk will return as the designated lefty specialist, a role in which Caleb Thielbar has sadly lost his touch. Okert is supposed to be the backup in this role, but it turns out he’s pretty useless against righthanded hitters. Once opponents see him enter, they pinch-hit righties, which every team has in abundance, and with Okert required to face three batters damage is regular, if not inevitable. Paging Brock Stewart and Justin Topa, who were supposed to provide solid bridges to Duran and Griffin Jax. Both are injured, with no sign of returning soon. If the Twins can pull off a trade-deadline deal, I suspect this is the area they will focus on, as they did last year in acquiring Jorge Lopez.

June 17: In the Twin’s up-and-down season they seem to have lit upon a new and more engaging personality: they are making contact, hitting to the opposite field and striking out less, much less. They even sacrifice-bunted once. There’s no question that the arrival of Royce Lewis has elevated everyone’s game. Jose Miranda, his quondam replacement, has continued to hit, which means there is one fewer automatic outs–usually Margot or Farmer–in the lineup, and Alex Kiriloff and Eduard Julien have been exiled to Saint Paul. Buxton is still a strikeout zone, but he has contributed some useful hits, while Carlos Correa, for the first time in his Twins’ tenure, is earning his salary and the premature Hall of Fame predictions that came with him from Houston. But back to my point: where early in the season the Twins regularly racked up 10 or more strikeouts per game, inevitably more K’s than hits, I have seen recent games where the strikeout total has been four, and once it was almost zero. Their home runs are down, too, which may be the trade-off, a welcome one.

June 1: The Twins have shown some life in past weeks as each starting pitcher has excelled, but then also faltered. The same with the bullpen. The pieces seem to be there, but, like my golf game, consistency is a problem. I particularly appreciated one stretch last week or so when the young guys–Miranda, Larnach and Kiriloff–combined for five runs and a win, then the next night the veterans–Correa, Kepler, Jeffers–did the same. The Guardians are playing amazingly, not just winning but crushing their opponents, and it is doubtful the Twins will catch them. Their series win over Kansas City brought them closer to catching the Royals for second, and a wild card berth is still a possibility. The upcoming excitement will come from the return of Royce Lewis and management’s decision as to whom he will replace. His immediate substitute, Jose Miranda, is one of the top two hitters currently. Also worth watching is Jhoan Duran’s role as closer: he has been ineffective four games in a row and you have to wonder if Griffin Jax would make us feel a bit more comfortable in the role.

May 19: The Guardians completed what the Yankees started: demoralizing domination of the Twins. With their offense next to nonexistent, I am checking out for awhile. It’s just no fun to watch. Twice today they got their leadoff man to second, but 1-2-3 he never budged as the following hitters flailed. When they did tie the score in the 9th it was due to two errors and Buxton’s speed, not a single hit. And although Paddack pitched a great game after giving up a two-run homer to the game’s second batter, Cleveland walked the Twins off with their second home run off Duran. Julien and Kiriloff seem to be in terminal slumps, Vazquez and Margot, when they play, are automatic outs. It’s a mediocre lineup, at best.

May 18: The manager and the relievers will be blamed for last night’s 3-2 loss to the Guardians (although Baldelli partly blamed the home plate umpire), but when you get only four hits it’s hard not to point at the Twins’ weak offense as the culprit. Baldelli brought in lefty specialist Okert to face a lefthanded hitter with a runner on third and one out after Woods Richardson had pitched five shutout innings. Okert got the lefty, but the next hitter, a righty, got Okert for a two-run homer (on an 0-2 pitch) that essentially decided the game. The Twins came back to tie on a rare pinch-hit double with RISP by Kyle Farmer. Baldelli then elected to use his closer, Duran, in the 8th, presumably because that was when Cleveland’s most dangerous hitter, Jose Ramirez, would bat, and Ramirez was 0-for-7 lifetime against Duran. (Baldelli may also have realized the low odds that there would ever be a save situation that night.) Ramirez, however, hit a home run.  Baldelli’s two relief choices gave up three quick runs. It’s probable no one else would have done much better, but it doesn’t make the manager look smart.

May 17: The Twins’ humiliating collapse at home before the Yankees did more than end their string of series victories and knock them off the pace in the AL Central: it essentially ended their fandom’s hope for championship-level play this year. Sure, we can beat up on the White Sox, but we have no hope against the Big Boys is the message. The always suspect hitting was nonexistent: 26 straight scoreless innings. In yesterday’s loss the Twins’ only three hits each came with two outs in the inning. Pablo Lopez was supposed to be a stopper, and his playoff win over the Astros last year, compared to putative ace Sonny Gray’s lapse, gave hope that he could rise to an occasion. But the Yankees battered him for 13 hits in five innings. The defense fell apart; so maybe Buxton’s return is necessary after all. There will be pleasures to watch for, good games to enjoy, but from now on the ’24 Twins will be just another team.

May 13: Unfortunately, I find my mood once again vulnerable to the Twins’ success, or lack thereof, each day. I should be able to brush it off, as just a game, but I found myself checking my iPhone while at Sotheby’s auction house yesterday to see how the Twins had done. The had won, 5-1, and my day was made. The day before I left for the movies with the Twins comfortably ahead, 7-1, only to discover upon returning home that they had blown the lead and lost 10-8. I could be grateful that, like the first month of their season, I wasn’t around to watch it.

May 10: How to explain the Twins going from the second-worst (to the White Sox) team in the American League to the hottest, winning 15 of 17, and most quite handily, although none as easily as yesterday’s 11-1 drubbing of the Mariners? I was overseas during much of the bad stretch, thankful to miss the parade of high-strikeout, few hits with RISP games. When the Twins got to face the White Sox, most thought their wins, some of which were lucky, resulted from playing inferior opposition. The scheduling cooperated, with 10 games against the White Sox and L.A. Angels. But then the Twins played Boston and Seattle, both boasting superior pitching staffs, and they won five of seven. Even the losses were understandable (see May 8, below) and weren’t without good hitting and pitching.
There have been minor adjustments in personnel. Trevor Larnach, with the sweetest swing I can remember, replaced the flailing Matt Wallner. (Once a hitter’s confidence goes, there’s not much he can do.) Max Kepler came off the Injured List and changed his terrible season start to an extra-base force. In a case of addition by subtraction, Byron Buxton went on the IL: his strikeouts disappeared and Willi Castro got regular playing time and a hitting streak. Jose Miranda was brought up and contributed. Ryan Jeffers continued to grow. There were dropoffs, though: Kiriloff and Julien stopped hitting; Margot and Santana struggled below .200; Farmer stayed well below his past productivity. In general, though, strikeouts were down and the offense became fun to watch.
The potentially most impactful personnel change came on the pitching side: Simeon Woods Richardson replace Louie Varland, who was getting battered every outing. It’s still early, but Woods Richardson, at a very early age, is showing star potential. Chris Paddack has been as good as hoped and Pablo Lopez, after a few off games, has turned serious and reclaimed his ace status. The bullpen is still short an arm or two, namely Brock Stewart, but Jhoan Duran has come off the IL even better (more mature?) than last year.
The Twins aren’t quite a lock when leading after six, but they’re getting close. It’s too early to get excited: let’s see how the next two series, at Toronto and home with the Yankees, go. But for now the Twins have regained the confidence they need to make the summer interesting.

May 8: Last night’s loss to the Mariners is on the manager. Having only his “B” bullpen to work with, he lifted starter Bailer Ober after only five innings, despite Ober’s cruising with a 4-2 lead. (84 pitches was his reason). Then, needing length, he removed his “long” reliever, Cole Sands, after a 1-2-3 13-pitch inning. When Baldelli turned to Jay Jackson to start the 7th, I said, “Ober’s win is gone.” Sure enough, after four batters Jackson had loaded the bases and was done. Next man up, Steven Okert, couldn’t find the strike zone and fed a meatball to pinch-hitter Cal Raleigh, who turned it into a 440-foot grand salami. Okert is a left-on-lefty specialist, and bringing him in to face a righty with no margin for erro was not a formula for success. Running out of relievers, Baldelli then used Jorge Alcala for a successful eighth inning, but possibly concerned about having to play extra innings, with the score tied at 6, left him in for the ninth. Unaccustomed to pitching a second frame, Alcala unraveled and gave up four runs and the game.
Meanwhile on offense, Baldelli subbed out the two lefties at the top of the lineup for righthanded hitters in the 5th inning because a lefthanded pitcher briefly took the mound for Seattle. Farmer for Julien I could understand, as Julien has gone a week without a hit, but Margot, hitting .172 for Larnach, hitting .354?! On their second at-bats Farmer doubled to open the inning. Needing only to advance him, Margot grounded weakly to third, essentially killing the rally before it started. Later in the game, Baldelli put Austin Martin in for the other lefty, Alex Kiriloff. Martin did beat out an inside single, which led indirectly to the tying run; but in the next inning Martin, not used to left field, misplayed a long fly into a triple that opened the floodgates for the Mariners’ win.
Baldelli overmanages. He always has and will continue to do so. The Strib reported today that in 35 games he has used 34 different starting lineups. He also has the Little League approach that everyone on the team has to play. If someone hasn’t started in two games, you can be sure he will be in the lineup the third day. Hence, players like Margot and Jackson, who do not belong, will still be used. One can only hope that when Brock Stewart and Justin Topa are healthy, Jackson (and probably Funderburk) can be dismissed and Baldelli wil have a full deck to play his cards with. As for Margot, one hopes that if/when Buxton returns, they will keep Martin and groom him for the future rather than hang on to Margot and recollect his past.

The main story from the Twins’ Opening Day 4-1 win over Kansas City was, simply, the injury to potential superstar Royce Lewis, who pulled up lame with a quad injury as he rounded second base. It’s not that a sustained injury, if it proves as serious as it looked, will hurt the Twins’ prospects this year; they could still win their division, though not so handily. The bigger concern is for Lewis’s career. He has charisma, leadership ability and all the athletic attributes you could want. He homered in his first two playoff at-bats last fall, and he homered in his first Opening Day at-bat yesterday, following up with a single to go 2-for-2 before getting hurt. But he hasn’t played a year of professional baseball without a serious injury. Is he snakebit, injury-prone, or is this a fluke? All anyone can think of is Byron Buxton, who is 8-for-9 in seasons ruined by injury. The Twins and Minnesota need Lewis. All we can do now is hope.

April 4: The desultory performance by the Twins’ offense in their home opener against the Guardians reminded me of all I disliked about their 2023 season and resurrected my worst fears for this year now that Royce Lewis is gone. The headlines: Twins were 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position (Guardians were 2-for-7) and had 15 strikeouts to 1 walk. Kiriloff tripled with one out in the 1st, then Buxton struck out. In the 2d the Twins loaded the bases then Julien struck out looking. In the 7th again the bases were loaded with one out before Buxton struck out and Kepler popped up. Correa led off the 8th with a double then watched the next three batters fan. The defense wasn’t much better. Cleveland’s game-deciding three-run rally started when Wallner shied away from Steven Kwan’s looper instead of charging and diving, then the third run resulted from a botched rundown play. The Guardians, by contrast, constantly put the ball in play. I’d love for Minnesota to have a player like Kwan; with a runner on third and less than two outs, you know he will get his bat on the ball. Unlike Buxton, Kepler, Santana…go down the lineup. In all, it was an enervating game to watch and a deterrent to watching anymore for awhile.

A general thought concerning official scoring and statistics: In his final inning (the 6th), Pablo Lopez got two quick outs then gave up a single and left the game “responsible for the man on first.” The Twins reliever, Kelly Funderburk, hit his first batter and walked the second. The third hit a ground ball that Correa booted, resulting in a run scoring and being charged to Lopez. Clearly, Funderburk was more “responsible” for the run scoring than Lopez. I would give the official scorer the discretion to attribute the run in this situation: a runner not in scoring position can be assigned as the responsibility of the relief pitcher if he enters the game with two outs, or maybe even one.

Twins Preview ’24

As the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 season opener approaches I am more doubtful than sanguine. While the national prognosticators uniformly pick the Twins to win their division, I read this more as a referendum on the weakness of their rivals than an endorsement of the Twins’ strength. And given their success last year–winning the division plus a playoff round–a mere division title this season will not satisfy Minnesota fandom.
Of the five most important considerations in making a prediction, two are related but particularly unknowable. (One consideration that is not important is spring training, where the Twins finished in last place. It would have been nice to see some of their pitchers dominating and their hitters collecting hits, but when someone named Hellman is getting more at-bats than any regular and non-roster pitchers are pitching the last four innings the final scores hardly matter. I don’t know what Buxton, Correa, et al., were doing instead of facing live in-game pitching, but I have to presume the organization knows what it is doing.)
The two big unknowables are injuries and roster additions. The era of the day-in, day-out player is gone. (If you want to know an unbreakable record in sports, look no further than Cal Ripken’s consecutive-game streak.) But who will be hurt and miss how many games can make a big difference. Even though Carlos Correa played most of the year, we are now told that his plantar fasciitis changed him from a future Hall of Famer to the league leader in hitting into double plays. Byron Buxton has been a Platinum Glove winner and offensive Player of the Month, but he is now better known for the variety of injuries that have shut him down, year after year. What will be his story in ’24? Then, partly due to injuries, every team has players contribute who aren’t on the opening day roster and, for most fans, haven’t even been heard of. At this time last year I knew nothing of Eduard Julien, Matt Wallner or Louie Varland, yet they played significant roles by season’s end and are counted on heavily this year. In one memorable year, a midseason trade for Shannon Stewart totally transformed the Twins’ season. Who will it be this year, and how big an impact will the unknowns make?
A third consideration, already alluded to, is the strenght of competition. As someone who predicted that the Guardians were building a dynasty at the end of 2022, I have no claim to expertise in this area. I see a lot to like when I look at the lineups for the Guardians, the Royals and even the Tigers–not so much the White Sox–and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or all posed a more serious challenge than others are predicting. But that comes down, and brings me, to the two areas I am comfortable discussing: the Twins’ pitching and the Twins’ hitting.
Pitching: Pablo Lopez was anointed as their ace when they gave up batting champion Luis Arraez to acquire him, and by the time of the playoffs he had earned the designation. He started the season slowly, however, and his spring training, as for all the Twins’ starters, has been unimpressive. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are similar young studs, who have to dominate with their fastballs. Assuming they can stay healthy, which they haven’t yet, they can be the meat of the staff. Even when they are on, though, their fastballs become a home run here or there. Depending on the Twins’ offense that day, that can mean a loss. I am unusually optimistic about Chris Paddack, the fourth starter. After missing almost all of last year, his health and durability are in question, but I’m hoping he will be the surprise of the staff. Varland has potential as the fifth starter, but he has yet to prove it and his similarity to Ryan and Ober makes me wonder if the Twins would not do better with a crafty lefthander mixed into the rotation. Perhaps the biggest concern is, who will the Twins use when, not if, one of these five gets hurt. Varland was to have been the first call-up, the safety net. With him now starting at the Majors, there are only unproven prospects waiting below. And maybe Randy Dobnak?
The relief corps is supposedly what raises the Twins above the competition this year, but already three are on the injured list. Then there is the overriding issue that success for a relief pitcher one year seldom repeats itself. Even within the same year, a reliever can go from unhittable to unreliable: see Jorge Lopez’s record with the Orioles and Twins last season. Or, for the reverse, look at Emilio Pagan’s year with the Twins. That said, here’s my rundown on key relievers: Jhoan Duran, the closer, lacks swagger and makes me nervous. A 101 mph fastball is no longer an oddity for batters and his “splinker” is not in the reliability league of, say, Mariano Rivera’s cutter. He can’t hold runners on base, he rarely posts a 1-2-3 inning, so all too often the tying run is in scoring position when the game ends. Griffin Jax is the most-used late-inning reliever, and we’ll see how he does as a closer while Duran is injured. I like Caleb Thielbar, the ranking lefty, but he is getting old, which makes me wonder. Jorge Alcala has always been touted as the next best thing but has yet to stay healthy. Brock Stewart was a revelation, but that was last year. Then there is a bevy of newcomers whom I have not seen: Topa, Staumont, Okert, Jackson. As mentioned, a relief pitcher is a crap shoot. There are no guarantees here; one can only hope.
Hitting: This is where the rubber meets the road. If the Twins hit at, or close to, potential, they will win games even with mediocre pitching. But for every one of their players, as high as is the ceiling, the floor is very low. And the low floor contains a lot of strikeouts–the Twins led the league last year–which can make a game not fun to watch or read about. Byron Buxton is the poster boy here. I get sick of seeing him look over his shoulder at the pitcher as he walks back to the dugout after striking out. He has power and great speed, and he hits mistakes a long way. What he doesn’t do is make contact when that is all that is needed. He never bunts, when that would be an easy way to raise his average and cause havoc on the basepaths. And in clutch situations, a good pitcher can almost always strike him out. We don’t know what he could accomplish by playing a whole season, and no one really expects it to happen this year.
Carlos Correa, based on his salary and experience, should be the engine that drives the offense. He wasn’t last year, at least not until the playoffs. If he could hit more line drives and fewer ground balls to shortstop, the lineup could come alive. By OPS rankings, the next two key offensive weapons are second-year players Eddie Julien and Matt Wallner. Both impressed early on, but both cooled off as the season ended. How much was fatigue, how much was opposition scouting? I am especially doubtful about Wallner, who was useless by season’s end and got about two hits all spring training. I fear that a sophomore slump is more likely than a further blossoming, for Wallner especially. Which raises the question, will we see Trevor Larnach or Brooks Lee make contributions this year?
I have much less concern about a sophomore slump for Royce Lewis. He has shown a Buxton-like propensity for unusual injuries, which is the only thing that will keep him, I predict, from stardom. I’m also comfortable with a first-base tandem of Alex Kiriloff and Carlos Santana, although one is oft-injured and the other is relatively old and worn. On their worst days, both will be an upgrade from last year’s Joey Gallo. Ryan Jeffers provides offense at catcher; Christian Vazquez can cut down base stealers and can’t hit worse than he did last year. I love both Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer as utility backups.
The outfied may or may not be centered on Buxton. If he can play regularly, the defense is elevated a level. Manuel Margot was acquired offseason as insurance for Buxton. I like his experience with the Rays, and if he starts to hit he can spell Wallner in leftfield against left handers, but his production remains to be seen. Wallner/Larnach in left leave me queasy. Max Kepler is back in right, despite expectations the Twins would trade him, if they could. Every year we talk of his great potential, which he never lives up to. Eliminating the shift helped his average last year. You just hope that for once he can “put it all together.”
Overall: The Twins could be an offensive powerhouse. Or they could strike out a lot and have a lot of batters hitting .240. Someone needs to be a spark: it could be Lewis, or Correa, or even Buxton. Hitting is contagious, but it has to start somewhere. As it did last year, the pitching will keep the Twins in most games, but depth is an issue. On paper, based on last year’s numbers, the Twins should be good. But this is this year, and the games aren’t played on paper.