Twins Preview ’24

As the Minnesota Twins’ 2024 season opener approaches I am more doubtful than sanguine. While the national prognosticators uniformly pick the Twins to win their division, I read this more as a referendum on the weakness of their rivals than an endorsement of the Twins’ strength. And given their success last year–winning the division plus a playoff round–a mere division title this season will not satisfy Minnesota fandom.
Of the five most important considerations in making a prediction, two are related but particularly unknowable. (One consideration that is not important is spring training, where the Twins finished in last place. It would have been nice to see some of their pitchers dominating and their hitters collecting hits, but when someone named Hellman is getting more at-bats than any regular and non-roster pitchers are pitching the last four innings the final scores hardly matter. I don’t know what Buxton, Correa, et al., were doing instead of facing live in-game pitching, but I have to presume the organization knows what it is doing.)
The two big unknowables are injuries and roster additions. The era of the day-in, day-out player is gone. (If you want to know an unbreakable record in sports, look no further than Cal Ripken’s consecutive-game streak.) But who will be hurt and miss how many games can make a big difference. Even though Carlos Correa played most of the year, we are now told that his plantar fasciitis changed him from a future Hall of Famer to the league leader in hitting into double plays. Byron Buxton has been a Platinum Glove winner and offensive Player of the Month, but he is now better known for the variety of injuries that have shut him down, year after year. What will be his story in ’24? Then, partly due to injuries, every team has players contribute who aren’t on the opening day roster and, for most fans, haven’t even been heard of. At this time last year I knew nothing of Eduard Julien, Matt Wallner or Louie Varland, yet they played significant roles by season’s end and are counted on heavily this year. In one memorable year, a midseason trade for Shannon Stewart totally transformed the Twins’ season. Who will it be this year, and how big an impact will the unknowns make?
A third consideration, already alluded to, is the strenght of competition. As someone who predicted that the Guardians were building a dynasty at the end of 2022, I have no claim to expertise in this area. I see a lot to like when I look at the lineups for the Guardians, the Royals and even the Tigers–not so much the White Sox–and I wouldn’t be surprised if one or all posed a more serious challenge than others are predicting. But that comes down, and brings me, to the two areas I am comfortable discussing: the Twins’ pitching and the Twins’ hitting.
Pitching: Pablo Lopez was anointed as their ace when they gave up batting champion Luis Arraez to acquire him, and by the time of the playoffs he had earned the designation. He started the season slowly, however, and his spring training, as for all the Twins’ starters, has been unimpressive. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are similar young studs, who have to dominate with their fastballs. Assuming they can stay healthy, which they haven’t yet, they can be the meat of the staff. Even when they are on, though, their fastballs become a home run here or there. Depending on the Twins’ offense that day, that can mean a loss. I am unusually optimistic about Chris Paddack, the fourth starter. After missing almost all of last year, his health and durability are in question, but I’m hoping he will be the surprise of the staff. Varland has potential as the fifth starter, but he has yet to prove it and his similarity to Ryan and Ober makes me wonder if the Twins would not do better with a crafty lefthander mixed into the rotation. Perhaps the biggest concern is, who will the Twins use when, not if, one of these five gets hurt. Varland was to have been the first call-up, the safety net. With him now starting at the Majors, there are only unproven prospects waiting below. And maybe Randy Dobnak?
The relief corps is supposedly what raises the Twins above the competition this year, but already three are on the injured list. Then there is the overriding issue that success for a relief pitcher one year seldom repeats itself. Even within the same year, a reliever can go from unhittable to unreliable: see Jorge Lopez’s record with the Orioles and Twins last season. Or, for the reverse, look at Emilio Pagan’s year with the Twins. That said, here’s my rundown on key relievers: Jhoan Duran, the closer, lacks swagger and makes me nervous. A 101 mph fastball is no longer an oddity for batters and his “splinker” is not in the reliability league of, say, Mariano Rivera’s cutter. He can’t hold runners on base, he rarely posts a 1-2-3 inning, so all too often the tying run is in scoring position when the game ends. Griffin Jax is the most-used late-inning reliever, and we’ll see how he does as a closer while Duran is injured. I like Caleb Thielbar, the ranking lefty, but he is getting old, which makes me wonder. Jorge Alcala has always been touted as the next best thing but has yet to stay healthy. Brock Stewart was a revelation, but that was last year. Then there is a bevy of newcomers whom I have not seen: Topa, Staumont, Okert, Jackson. As mentioned, a relief pitcher is a crap shoot. There are no guarantees here; one can only hope.
Hitting: This is where the rubber meets the road. If the Twins hit at, or close to, potential, they will win games even with mediocre pitching. But for every one of their players, as high as is the ceiling, the floor is very low. And the low floor contains a lot of strikeouts–the Twins led the league last year–which can make a game not fun to watch or read about. Byron Buxton is the poster boy here. I get sick of seeing him look over his shoulder at the pitcher as he walks back to the dugout after striking out. He has power and great speed, and he hits mistakes a long way. What he doesn’t do is make contact when that is all that is needed. He never bunts, when that would be an easy way to raise his average and cause havoc on the basepaths. And in clutch situations, a good pitcher can almost always strike him out. We don’t know what he could accomplish by playing a whole season, and no one really expects it to happen this year.
Carlos Correa, based on his salary and experience, should be the engine that drives the offense. He wasn’t last year, at least not until the playoffs. If he could hit more line drives and fewer ground balls to shortstop, the lineup could come alive. By OPS rankings, the next two key offensive weapons are second-year players Eddie Julien and Matt Wallner. Both impressed early on, but both cooled off as the season ended. How much was fatigue, how much was opposition scouting? I am especially doubtful about Wallner, who was useless by season’s end and got about two hits all spring training. I fear that a sophomore slump is more likely than a further blossoming, for Wallner especially. Which raises the question, will we see Trevor Larnach or Brooks Lee make contributions this year?
I have much less concern about a sophomore slump for Royce Lewis. He has shown a Buxton-like propensity for unusual injuries, which is the only thing that will keep him, I predict, from stardom. I’m also comfortable with a first-base tandem of Alex Kiriloff and Carlos Santana, although one is oft-injured and the other is relatively old and worn. On their worst days, both will be an upgrade from last year’s Joey Gallo. Ryan Jeffers provides offense at catcher; Christian Vazquez can cut down base stealers and can’t hit worse than he did last year. I love both Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer as utility backups.
The outfied may or may not be centered on Buxton. If he can play regularly, the defense is elevated a level. Manuel Margot was acquired offseason as insurance for Buxton. I like his experience with the Rays, and if he starts to hit he can spell Wallner in leftfield against left handers, but his production remains to be seen. Wallner/Larnach in left leave me queasy. Max Kepler is back in right, despite expectations the Twins would trade him, if they could. Every year we talk of his great potential, which he never lives up to. Eliminating the shift helped his average last year. You just hope that for once he can “put it all together.”
Overall: The Twins could be an offensive powerhouse. Or they could strike out a lot and have a lot of batters hitting .240. Someone needs to be a spark: it could be Lewis, or Correa, or even Buxton. Hitting is contagious, but it has to start somewhere. As it did last year, the pitching will keep the Twins in most games, but depth is an issue. On paper, based on last year’s numbers, the Twins should be good. But this is this year, and the games aren’t played on paper.