World Series

The Dodgers’ thrilling comeback win in Game 5 of this year’s World Series highlighted one more flaw in the universe of Baseball Statistics: base hits with runners(s) in scoring position, known in box scores as RISP. The Twins have traditionally been very bad in this category, allowing manager Rocco Baldelli to make postgame comments like, “One hit here or there would have made the difference.” This glosses over the obvious facts that opposing pitchers tend to try a little harder when there are runners in scoring position, and that a mark of a good hitter is the ability to get a hit (or at least make contact) in this situation. That you did poorly with RISP may reflect the fact that the other team is just better, not that your luck was bad. (A similar situation exists in NBA games where the inferior team stays close or even leads until two minutes remain in the game.)

But getting back to the statistic itself. The Twins as a team have been notable in recent years for their lack of speed on the bases. Absence of stolen bases is one obvious result. But another less noted result is the number of base hits with RISP that don’t result in runs because the runner on second is held at third or is thrown out at the plate. Thus, even if they get an RISP hit it may not produce the result the statistic is designed to measure.

Getting back to the World Series: with the Dodgers now down 6-5 in the 8th inning, Kike Hernandez led off with a nice line drive to right. Surprise hero Tommy Edman then beat out a grounder to the shortstop hole and the next batter walked, prompting Aaron Boone to replace Tommy Kahnle with his closer Luke Weaver. Gavin Lux hit a clutch sacrifice fly that not only tied the game but moved Edman from second to third. Ohtani refilled the bases on a rare catcher’s interference and Mookie Betts, one of three Dodger MVPs, hit another sac fly to plate the Series-winning run. How many times this season in a bases-loaded-no-outs situation did I see a Twin hit an infield popup or strike out? So often that it became expected. But with the season on the line, against the Yankees’ best pitcher, two Dodgers, including their number nine hitter, came through. How is that reflected in the team’s RISP? Actually, I don’t know, but a sacrifice fly is not a hit so it wouldn’t count there. Since it’s not an official at-bat, I presume it wouldn’t count in that ledger either. Thus it would produce a nullity when in fact these were two of the most consequential, clutch plate appearances in the World Series “with runners in scoring position.”