Twins Preview ’23

After last season I thought: at least the Twins won’t try to rely on Max Kepler or Emilio Pagan again. Whomever they get will have to be better. Starting the 2023 season, however, Kepler is still in right field and Pagan is back in the bullpen. How, therefore, can the Twins be improved? Short answers: with the infield shift banned, some of Kepler’s inevitable balls toward right field may now be base hits; and Pagan, rather than the closer, is at best the fourth option for that role. These are weak threads upon which to hang optimism for the season, however.

The Twins’ big excuse for last year’s poor performance was injuries. Of course, other teams had injured players too, but we mostly noticed ours. With a long playoff-less offseason to recover, one would hope that the Twins would at least enter the year healthy. It is, therefore, discouraging that three of this year’s projected starters–Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kiriloff–have yet to recover from the injuries that sidelined them last season. Before anyone can even get hurt, the Twins are at a deficit. The fact that three of their offseason acquisitions are backups for these players makes me think the Twins brass knew this was coming.

Then there is the case of Joey Gallo. The one unalloyed relief for this year is the absence of Miguel Sano, an immensely talented hitter who totally squandered his abilities. In his place the Twins picked up Gallo, another quondam power hitter who rivals Sano in his strikeouts. If Kiriloff weren’t hurt and played to his potential, the Twins wouldn’t need Gallo. As it is, the writers keep raving about Gallo’s Gold Gloves, as if that mattered.

Carlos Correa is back – yeah! – but I never saw him as an offensive force last year. He raised his average to .290 late in the season, but wasn’t the clutch middle-of-the-lineup hitter the Twins needed. Jose Miranda came closest to filling that role, but sophomore years can go either way and he’s a downgrade from Gio Urshela at third. My hopes for a breakout sophomore year rest on Trevor Larnach. For half of 2022 he looked ready to take away Kepler’s spot, but then he got hurt and wasn’t the same when he returned. Byron Buxton, the team’s supposed superstar, had one great month last year, but he didn’t play a game in the preseason and is being babied at DH for the foreseeable future. At catcher, the Twins replaced Gary Sanchez with Christian Vasquez, a former Red Sox for a Yankee, an upgrade on defense but a loss on offense.

Where will the runs come from? is the question that worries most observers, including yours truly. It’s hard to believe that three years ago this franchise set a Major League for home runs: I don’t see anyone here hitting 30. Nor is this a team that will manufacture runs with speed. Correa refuses to steal out of concern for injury; Buxton has been hurt trying to steal and will not want to aggravate his sensitive knee; everyone else is slow. The Twins were last in stolen bases last year and are even money to repeat, even while the enlarged bases and limited pickoff rule should make base stealing a much bigger deal in ’23.

The only realistic hope for improvement comes courtesy of the pitching staff. Gone are Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, two short starters who put stress on the bullpen. Although there is no Number One, there are five potentially competent starters, any one of whom could have a big year. Tyler Mahle and Pablo Lopez are new to the team, and Kenta Maeda is back from injury. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan both performed well last year and there is no reason to think they won’t be as good or better. Relief success is never predictable, but Jhoan Duran could be a great closer; Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for Baltimore; Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran beat out the other lefties; and manager Rocco Baldelli loves Griffin Jax. Jorge Alcala throws heat, and we haven’t even had to mention, let alone rely on, Emilio Pagan. And bonus: given the rate that pitchers get injured, it’s nice to have several experienced arms across the river in St. Paul, starting with Bailey Ober, who was one of the Twins’ better pitchers last year when not hurt.

The big question that will be asked all year: is Pablo Lopez worth giving up the AL batting champion, Luis Arraez? If the Twins batters all hit below .250, you’ll have to wonder. If Lopez cements a lights-out rotation, you won’t worry about cheering Luis on in Miami.

The last factor worth mentioning: the opposition. The American League Central is the weakest division by far in the AL, if not all of baseball. Without playing too far above their heads, the Twins should finish above Detroit, Kansas City and probably Chicago. The Cleveland Indians, though, are another story. In their second-half series with the Twins, they played a different brand of baseball: scrappy, fast, with power and the best player on the field, Jose Ramirez. They are young, hungry and on the rise. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with them. My hope–the best I can do–is that the Twins win as many as they lose; that their games are close and exciting; and that, as so often happens in baseball, someone shows up that I haven’t mentioned or even thought about, to give us Twins fans hope for the future.