Twins Update

The Twins’ relatively hot start in 2023 makes my end-of-year preview already look unduly gloomy. Their off-season additions have pleasantly surprised: while Byron Buxton has yet to play an inning in centerfield, newcomer Michael Taylor has been more than adequate defensively and an asset in the number nine hole. For one thing, he’s the only Twin who knows how to bunt. Joey Gallo has made everyone forget Miguel Sano. His home runs are just as long, but they are more frequent and don’t come with multiple strikeouts. So far, he’s hitting 100 points above his average with the Yankees last spring. Carlos Correa, surprisingly, resigned with the Twins for more money than he’s worth and so far has been a disappointment. He does, however, solidify the infield, allowing Jorge Polanco to play his natural position, second base. Former Red Sock Christian Vasquez is an equal to Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. The most valuable addition, however, until he got creamed in the face with a fastball, was Michael Farmer, who was a smart hitter and provided depth everywhere in the infield.

Among the holdovers, Jose Miranda and Max Kepler are starting to hit after slow starts, and Polanco has been the hitting machine I originally considered him, after a late return from last year’s injury. Alex Kiriloff is still conditioning in the minors but provides hope that more firepower is on the way. Nick Gordon and Willi Castro can easily give way to Farmer and Kiriloff when they’re ready. Nothing phases Trevor Larnach, and there’s reason to hope he hasn’t reached his ceiling. In fact, my two biggest concerns on offense are Correa and Buxton. Buxton is easy to strike out when a good pitcher bears down,  and he kills rallies. On the other hand, his one good at-bat will more often lead to a run than anyone else’s. Correa is receiving a pass despite hitting below .200, based on his track record and salary and the fact he is still young. We assume he will heat up and get his average back to his norm, but in the meantime he is leading the league by my count) in runners left on base.

The Twins’ amazing opening week featured all five starters pitching well into their games and giving up one or no runs. Until the not-quite-right Kenta Maeda gave up 11 runs the other day, the Twins starters’ ERA was top two in the league. Among Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, it’s hard to name the Twins’ “ace.” By giving him a $73 million contract after less than a month with the team, the organization seemed to be anointing Lopez, but since that event he’s had two bad starts. Ryan, on the other hand, has been locked and loaded every time out, and Gray has by far the best stuff and most experience. I expected Tyler Mahle to be the annual retread who didn’t measure up, but he has held his own, his current sore elbow notwithstanding. It was only a matter of time before Bailey Ober, who was good last year before getting hurt and had the best spring in camp, got called up and plugged into the rotation. He’s there now and should remain. Maeda was great in 2020, not so good in ’21 and out in ’22. He’s also 35, having pitched eight years in Japan before four years with the Dodgers; so when he has struggled to pitch more than five innings this year even before his arm got sore, you have to think his future as a starter is not bright.

The Twins lost 3-2 today because their bullpen stars faltered, but that happens. It was too good to be true to think that Manager Rocco Baldelli could throw out Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez and Jhoan Duran anytime he needed three shut-down innings at the end of a game, with Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran and whoever else was up from St. Paul that week for games that weren’t so close. Time will tell if the relievers hold up over the year. I’m most worried that Jax is not the dependable 7th-inning man Baldelli thinks he is; and the jury is still out on whether Duran can fulfill his closer potential.

Their first encounters next week with division rivals White Sox and Guardians may give a better indication of whether the Twins’ good start is a harbinger or an aberration. Minnesota fans who have just lived through disappointments with the Timberwolves, Wild and Vikings will undoubtedly expect the worst. But if the starting pitching does, indeed, keep them in almost every game, the season will be fun to watch.