Instant Replay Redux

[fusion_text]On consecutive nights, Jordan Schafer of the Twins 1) hit a soft liner to center that the outfielder dove for and appeared to catch, but when the play was challenged it was obvious that the ball had squirted out of the glove and rolled on the ground before being picked up again; and 2) made a diving catch to save a run that was ruled a trap until the replay showed that the ball never touched the ground. The same week, two runners that were called safe at first were shown, when challenged, to have reached the bag just after the ball. There was no manager running out of the dugout, kicking dirt, no complaints by either side, no discussions among umpires. How did baseball get along, one wondered, without replay challenges?

One reservation: when a White Sox base stealer was called out at second he hopped up, immediately asking his manager to challenge the call. It appeared to the Twins announcers (and me) that the call was incorrect, but after a review of the replay, the umpires confirmed their call. There simply wasn’t a camera angle that clearly showed when the tag was made. And thus, the Sox lost their challenge for the game.

Of all the sports that have adopted an instant replay challenge system, tennis is the cleanest. The camera technology always shows whether the ball is in or out, down to a millimeter. Plus, the replay is visible to spectators, so it becomes part of the entertainment.

Football probably has the longest history with replays – and the most problems. The principal one is that there are 22 big bodies around the ball, and sometimes there is no clear view of the play. Second, there is no clear line dividing when a player has control of the ball; thus, the question, did his knee touch the ground before the ball came loose is often debatable. The lack of clarity is evident when the TV announcers predict the review result and are wrong, which occurs regularly. The other problem in football is that the replay challenge, even when there is a clear result, can’t always undo the damage of a bad call. If the referee thinks the runner is down before he fumbles and, consequently, blows his whistle, and the fumble is recovered by the opposing team and run in for an apparent touchdown, the ball will be brought back to the spot of the fumble and the touchdown nullified, even if the replay shows the whistle should not have been blown.

In all, it is rather impressive how far and how fast instant replay challenges have infiltrated sports that have been around for years. The big question: how long until baseball allows the radar to call balls and strikes?[/fusion_text]

Who’s Your #1 Starter?

Just as basketball positions have morphed from what we knew as kids – guard, center, forward – to specific numbered slots, starting pitchers are now referred to as a #2 starter, #5 starter, etc. So far as I can tell, this refers to the order of who’s the best, on down. But what does it matter? In basketball, the number refers to the characteristics of the position – the “4 slot” may be a “power forward,” the most physical of your forwards; the “2 guard” is more the shooter than the passer (I’m guessing here) – but that’s not the case with pitchers. Your #5 starter could be a power pitcher or a finesse pitcher; it just means he’s the fifth starter the team puts out there when the season starts. The #1 guy is your Opening Day starter, but after that, what’s the difference? Once the order is set, the pitchers follow one after another – that’s why it’s called the “rotation” – and you’re just as likely to start a series with #3 as #1. Yet every pitcher is now pegged, by quality if not practice, as a #1 to #5.

Twins Preview – 2014

I can’t think of  a baseball season in which I was less excited about the prospects of “my” team, in this case still the Minnesota Twins. It’s not just that they are universally picked to finish last in their division – with projected losses between 90 and 100 – it’s that there’s no individual player whom I eager to follow. The starters are all players I watched last year without much enthusiasm; perhaps they will be better, but that would just raise their batting averages from .225 to .250. Their only consistent hitter, Joe Mauer, hits a quiet .320, with as often as not a meaningless single resulting in a 1-for-3 box score.

The touted upgrade comes in the pitching rotation, where the Twins added two free-agent starters, Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes, to their two free agents from last year, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey. Both can generously be described as journeymen with their potential behind them. Hughes, it is said, pitched particularly well at Target Field for the Yankees last year, but let’s remember whom he was pitching against. I said last year that Glen Perkins was the only Twin not named Mauer (at that time a catcher) who could play for any team in the Majors, and his season justified my view. I was pleasantly surprised by other relievers – Jared Burton, Casey Fien and Caleb Thielbar in particular – but there’s not much they can do if the starters give up five runs and the offense can only muster two.

Are we already putting too much pressure on Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Alex Meyer to resurrect the Twins before they play a game?

Liking the Cards

I have rarely been a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals. First, they win too much, like a Midwestern version of the Yankees. Second, they come across as organizationally boring, more corporate than colorful. Third, they compete with the Pittsburgh Pirates, to whom I will always feel an allegiance. Fourth, Tony LaRussa, the Tiger Woods of baseball. But after dabbling in the NLDS and NLCS – I’m still more of an American League fan – I find myself warming up to these Redbirds.

The first turning point came, I suppose, when they jettisoned Albert Pujols, letting someone else (the Angels) pay him the obscene salary he demanded (and, we now know, did not deserve). LaRussa, too, is gone, replaced by the perfectly nondescript Mike Matheny, one more catcher-turned-manager. Nor did I particularly begrudge their dispensing of the Pirates’ postseason, partly because the Pirates had already achieved so much success this year and, more to the point, because the Cards had beat out the Bucs for first place in their division, and the regular season should count for something.

Facing the L.A. Dodgers in the NLCS also put them in a good light. My feelings toward the Yankees have somewhat transferred themselves to the Dodgers now that I reside on the West Coast: the highest payroll, the glitziest owners, the excessive media attention, the rent-a-player roster are all black marks in my book. But the defining moment came in one at-bat: Matt Carpenter against Clayton Kershaw in the scoreless sixth game. Kershaw, the league’s best pitcher, threw Carpenter ten quality pitches – huge hooks, buzzing fastballs, biting sliders – and couldn’t get him out. Each pitch that Carpenter managed to foul off amazed me. Before the playoffs all I knew of Carpenter was a name that appeared among the NL batting leaders. I didn’t know his first name, his position or where he’d come from. Before this at-bat, he had not had a particularly distinguished postseason, and I was surprised to hear he had led the league with 199 hits during the regular season. On the eleventh pitch, Kershaw hung a slider (when a batter gets a hit, the announcers invariably identify the pitch as having “hung”) and Carpenter roped it into the rightfield corner for a double that started Kershaw’s and the Dodgers’ downfall, to the eventual tune of a 9-0 series clincher. It was a classic case of a very good hitter against a very good pitcher; those duels usually go to the pitcher, so when Carpenter won this one, I said he deserves it and the Cardinals deserve it. Yes, Yasiel Puig made two awful throws from rightfield and there may have been other flubs, but this was not a case of the Dodgers giving the game away – the Cardinals took it.

I am still learning about the rest of the team. There appear to be no prima donnas, no one set up for me to root against. On the contrary, it is thrilling to see Michael Wacha rising from obscurity to Bob Gibson territory, right before our eyes. And the one player I do know about, Yadier Molina, is the definition of solid excellence. I am used to seeing Minnesota writers canonize Joe Mauer, but I would prefer the durable Molina on my team; and if any part of a pitching staff’s success is attributable to the catcher, then it is no contest.

I am equally glad that the Red Sox have put the Tigers out of their misery and will be the Cardinal’s opponent in the World Series. When they were cruising, the Tigers were imposing, and their starters were second-to-none. But after Cabrera got hurt, they barely played .500 ball, and it was painful to watch Cabrera and Fielder slump through the playoffs. Jhonny Peralta back from steroids was a black mark, and the bullpen, with no closer, was the Achilles’ heel that ultimately doomed them. Still, if it hadn’t been for Big Papi’s big blast, one of the most dramatic home runs I’ve seen, the Tigers might have squeaked through. As it is, we get to watch the feisty BoSox, who swing and run and field with abandon and have those charmingly god-awful beards. Where will my sympathies lie? I don’t yet know, but it will be fun to find out.

Twins Spin (Wheels)

As we watch Postseason 2013 we are reminded not only of how bad the Twins were this year, but how little there is to look forward to. When the season started, I could identify only two players – Joe Mauer and Glenn Perkins – who would be welcome on any team, and the same was true in September. Justin Morneau, of whom many have fond memories, is still a ghost of his pre-concussion self, and his stint with the Pittsburgh Pirates did nothing to change one’s perception. Local commentators point to Brian Dozier’s “emergence” as a solid second baseman; and while it is true he improved over last year, when he was sent to the minors, he remains a .250 hitter who can be considered “average,” at best. The rest of the squad would not look out of place in Rochester, where many of them in fact spent time this summer.

The greatest discouragement, however, is on the mound. Last year’s acquisitions of Worley, Pelfrey and Correa didn’t even rise to the level of stopgap solution, and there’s no reason to think they will answer next year. All of the “promising” pitchers of the year before, except perhaps the frequently injured Samuel Deduno, are a year older and less promising: Diamond, DeVries, Hendriks, Hernandez, et al. The biggest hope in the minors, Kyle Gibson, showed nothing, which casts some doubt on the other prospects who are rumored to arrive. Just as bad as the Twins’ situation, however, is what we see going on around them, highlighted in these Playoffs. Not only are other teams not standing still, waiting for the Twins to catch up, they are showing off young arms that will raise the bar in the future. Michael Wacha, Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Dan Straily – these are rookies who aren’t just promising, they are future aces (indeed, Oakland has an entire bullpen of rookies who can already pitch at the major-league level). It’s like the common blind spot experienced after each NFL draft: look how much better our team will be with these new draft choices, the fan thinks, not recognizing that every one of the competition is doing the same.

Maybe the Twins will get better when Buxton and Sano arrive – they must! – but they will have to get better faster than other teams do for it to make a difference, and, as the Playoffs also show, the name of the game is still pitching.

Tigers Sweep Yanks

Every Yankee-hater’s heart is swelling glad tonight after the Detroit Tigers’ four-game sweep in the ALCS. It wasn’t just the Tigers’ domination – they were never behind in any game – it was how bad the Yankees looked. They got two (two!) runs off Detroit starting pitching in four games, and both were scored by someone named Eduardo Nunez, who wasn’t even on the Yankees’ playoff roster when the series started.
Not only were the Yankee hitters impotent, they gave us hope of bad years to come. Look down the lineup: Ichiro is fading – Seattle was much improved by his departure. Curtis Granderson was exposed as a strikeout artist, and he’s on the wrong side of 30, too. Robinson Cano, supposedly the best player in New York and the only youth in the Yankee lineup, set a record by going 0-for-29 and responded with lackluster effort and poor defense. Derek Jeter, my personal bete noire for his smug manner, epitomizing ‘Yankee cool,’ broke his ankle and, at 37, will have a hard time ever reaching this year’s level. Nick Swisher is probably at the end of his time with the Yankees; and Mark Texeira, who mishandled two ground balls today, has, it’s safe to say, peaked. A-Rod? He’s been in steady decline and was thoroughly humiliated by his own manager as well as the Tiger pitchers, lefthanded and right. Who are the backups? Eric Chavez, Brett Gardner, a catcher no one has heard of – where will the Yankees turn next year, while they are still paying huge salaries to all of the above? Their pitching is forgettable, as well. Andy Pettite and Mariano Rivera are in the twilights of their careers. C.C. Sabathia is the only solid starter, and the Tigers rocked him tonight. It’s no stretch to believe that his best years are behind him. Somehow the Yankees compiled the AL’s best regular-season record this year. Including the playoffs, though, they were barely ahead of the Orioles. You have to think – with great pleasure – that this particular dynasty has ended.
As a Twins fan, my delight at the Tigers’ success is slightly alloyed with the recognition that they are now the dynasty to contend with. Theoretically, all their players still could have their best years ahead of them. Austin Jackson gets better every season, and they pulled a player out of Double-A, Avilais Gomez, who looked right at home facing the Yankees in the playoffs. Miguel Cabrera has obviously matured since his meltdown before the one-game playoff with the Twins a few years ago, and it is a pleasure to watch him hit, he is so completely comfortable at the plate. The most fun, though, is Prince Fielder, who seems to enjoy himself 100% of the time and brings that joy to his teammates, too. What a contrast to their Twins counterparts, Mauer and Morneau. Watching Fielder catch the final out today, motioning everyone away from a routine popup, brought tears to my eyes that I hadn’t felt since Argo. Then there is Justin Verlander, who is not only the most fun pitcher to watch because of his control and his stuff, it turns out he’s a fun personality, too. He was miked up for a half-inning of today’s game and held his own with the TBS announcers.
Speaking of announcers, the Tigers-Yankees series was a pleasure to watch. Ernie Johnson calls a clean game and his commentators – Ron Darling and John Smoltz – were smart and never intrusive – i.e., the exact opposite of Tim McCarver, who is doing the NLCS on Fox with Joe Buck. The TBS postgame show was also excellent, largely because of Dennis Eckersley, although Cal Ripken was also a creditable contributor (David Wells not so much). I also highly applaud a TBS innovation – keeping the pitch-track box on the screen for the entire at-bat, showing not only where the last pitch went, but where every pitch in the sequence crossed the plate. How long until this is standard on every baseball broadcast?
Will the World Series be an anticlimax? Probably, if only because I won’t be able to concentrate on the games, with McCarver babbling pointlessly. Also, I’m not as familiar with either St. Louis or San Francisco as I was with the American Leaguers, and from what I’ve seen of the Cardinals I don’t like their facial hair. I will hope that the Tigers continue to roll. Maybe a World Series win will make them less hungry next year. But for the moment, I can’t begrudge their potential supremacy over my Twins. I am first and foremost a Yankee-Hater at heart.

Instant Replay, Baseball Edition

The horrible call in last night’s Yankees-Tigers game that resulted in two very unearned runs for the Tigers could easily be avoided by a system that Major League Baseball does not appear to be considering, perhaps because it is the exact same system that the NFL currently uses: give each manager two challenges a game. Balls and strikes would be excluded, of course – just as many species of decision cannot be challenged in football – but everything else is fair game. With only two challenges at his disposal, a manager would have to be wary about using them – thus, saving them for game-changing moments and plays where the evidence should be clear.
Rather than slowing the game, a challenge system would speed it up. No longer would we have to wait for the manager to come trotting out of the dugout, engage in a lengthy conversation often requiring the presence of other umpires, then slowly tromp back to his seat, if he hasn’t been ejected, which then consumes a further minute or two. Under my proposal, he could toss a red flag from his back pocket without even moving; a replay official in the booth upstairs would review as many replay angles as are needed or available; he would then communicate electronically with the home plate, or other designated, umpire; and the call would either stand or be reversed. Further appeal would be futile. Note the one change from the NFL: there would be no need for the umpire or umpires to leave the field and look at the replays themselves, as baseball currently does for its limited home run/not home run review. If the missed call isn’t obvious to independent eyes in the skybox, the call stands.
Last night, Infante was out by two feet on Cano’s tag, and every replay angle showed the same thing. In sixty seconds, the call could have been corrected and the game could have proceeded without controversy. As for second-guessing the umpire, what umpire wants to be remembered for a bad call? And if MLB wants to proceed even more cautiously in this direction, start with one challenge per game. I’ll bet most will never be used, and pointless arguing will be curtailed even further. If a manager doesn’t have the courage to throw his flag, how seriously will the umpire take the manager who comes out to complain?

First Impression – ugh!

It’s hard to look worse in your first four games than have the Twins, and although the first week of a baseball season is an unreliable indicator I fear the prospects for Minnesota this year are pretty clear, and pretty grim. I have only witnessed one game myself – yesterday’s home opener against the Angels – but I suspect my initial conclusions will hold up. I would love to be wrong.
The Angels are one of the more loaded teams in the American League, but there are at least five others at their level, on paper, so it is not farfetched to compare their lineup to the Twins. Other than possibly Denard Span in center, there isn’t a single position where the Angels don’t have superior talent. Joe Mauer is the Twins’ best player, but he played first base yesterday, where the Angels have Albert Pujols. (Not that Mauer looked particularly good yesterday, making one error and striking out twice.) Danny Valencia at third and Alexi Casilla at second are both on “cross-your-fingers” status, players the Twins brass are hoping, without much justification, will have break-out years. It’s more likely that this will be the year their “promise” is snuffed out. At shortstop, 38-year-old Jamey Carroll is a stopgap, someone to hold the fort while minor leaguers develop. He got fist-bumps and pats on the back yesterday for hitting a short fly to left.
The only two players who impressed at all yesterday were Josh Willingham, a defensive liability in left but a professional hitter, and in all an upgrade over Delmon Young of last year, and Glen Perkins, who is the real deal as a lefty reliever. Saddest of all is the duo of Mauer and Morneau, both shells of their former MVP selves. They will make contact along the way, but may not hit 25 homers between them. They form one of the least fearsome lineup middles in the league (cf. Cabrera and Fielder in Detroit). Then there is Trevor Plouffe, a good AAA hitter but not ready for prime time.
After knocking the Twins position players, it is worth noting that they are not considered the weakness of this team: that would be the pitching staff. Francisco Liriano is a head case. Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn are competent and can usually hold the opposition to four runs, which is three more than the Twins have so far been able to score. I like Scott Baker, but it appears he will not be healthy at all this year. If the Twins were to ever be in the lead in the ninth, Matt Capps is unlikely to make it hold up. He throws straight fastballs that opposing hitters invariably square up on.
Finally, there is the intangible of team chemistry. Much has been made, as it should be, of the fact that Mauer and Morneau, the team leaders, are quiet individuals who don’t do much leading. With 14 new players on the roster, many others are unsure of their own status and unlikely to rally others. Valencia is unliked, Casilla’s head is in the clouds, Parmelee, Plouffe and Revere are basically rookies, Doumit, Willingham and Carroll are newcomers with modest credentials. That leaves Denard Span, who is mostly in the Mauer-Morneau mold and fighting his own concussion history. When the Twins come to bat, you sense nine individuals simply doing their job, not a united, aggressive bunch eager to attack the pitcher.
Which raises the question, what do you do with Ron Gardenhire? Traditionally, a manager who presides over back-to-back 99-loss seasons would be history. The Twins, almost unique in pro sports, have shown great loyalty to managers, and it’s hard to blame Gardy for the mediocre players he’s been given. Still, if this season goes as I expect it to, I would applaud shaking things up by bringing in a new manager, sooner than later. The Twins need an edge, which is something Gardenhire can’t provide. And a new manager would spare us Gardy’s postgame bromides – the opposing pitcher who was throwing the heck out of the ball, the way our boys kept battling back, etc. – or at least provide some new ones.

March Be Gone

What a dismal month for sports was March!
The number one story on Sports Center was, where will Peyton Manning play next year? If you aren’t already sick of Peyton Manning from the way he calls the game at the line of scrimmage, let alone his commercials, the O.J.-like coverage of his every plane trip would surely have sealed the deal. It only got worse when he signed with Denver, for then we had to endure more weeks of analysis concerning the Jets’ new second-string quarterback, Tim Tebow. Oh, and don’t forget the hyperventilating over the Saints’ bounty program. As someone else pointed out, the bounties weren’t the problem, it was the refs who failed to call a penalty when the Saints hit Brett Favre too low and too late.
As for the NBA, the air went out of the ball when both Ricky Rubio and Jeremy Lin were injured, ruining the only two new and interesting stories of the regular season, which, as always, is largely a yawn. I’d just as soon skip to the playoff finals between the Heat and the Thunder, but that won’t take place until June.
We gave tennis a shot by attending the opening round at Indian Wells, but anything less than the majors is skippable. I did watch one set of the Federer-Isner finals, but found it the most uninspired, uninspiring tennis final I’ve seen. As for the women, the top U.S. player is ranked 35, which raises the question, if one Russian beats another Russian, does anyone notice? The golf season, of course, begins in April with the Masters.
With no football or baseball, no NHL or NBA playoffs, and no majors in tennis or golf, the sports world is made to due with March Madness, the college basketball tournament that receives more hoopla each year. While admitting that I watched almost none of the games, I must say that this year’s was the least interesting in a long time. After two opening round upsets, there was nothing in the Cinderella department to root for, and that is always my main rooting interest. No VCU, Belmont, George Mason, or even Gonzaga. Nor, to judge from the daily highlights, was there any individual star to follow: no Jimmer Fredette, Bryce Drew, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Larry Bird. Everyone gushed over Anthony Davis, and he may be a wonderful team player; but so is Tim Duncan, and no one pays to see him play. The fact that the best team won, and won handily, took some life from the event.
In short, I am more than ready for the newness, the unpredictability and the daily interest of the major league baseball season. The Twins have 14 new players and a new radio announcer. Bring on baseball! But protect us, please, from the Tigers.

Timid Baserunning

While Gardy’s conservative managing style seems to pay off, year after year, I admit I get frustrated at his unwillingness to let his faster players try to steal second more often. Lots of good things can happen on stolen base attempts: the pitcher can be slow to the plate, the pitch can be hard to handle, the catcher can drop the ball and, most often, the throw to second can be offline. Even the best catchers throw out only 33% of potential base stealers, and that statistic includes the easier play at third base.
In the Twins’ first loss to the Yankees this year, they were down, 4-3, in the 8th inning when Nishi got an infield single with one out. To score him from first with the tying run, the Twins would have needed two more singles against All-Star closer Rafael Soriano. The TV announcers expected him to run, but he didn’t, until the count was 3-2, at which point Mauer flied to left, and he stayed put during Morneau’s at bat.
Then in the next inning, against uber-closer Mariano Rivera, Jason Kubel hit a two-out single and Jason Repko was brought in to pinch-run. Now tell me, what were the odds, historically, of the next two batters, #s 8 and 9 in the order, getting hits off Rivera? Undoubtedly less than the odds that Repko would be safe at second on a steal, and perhaps even get to third on a bad throw, from which it would take only one hit to tie the game.
In a way, this is similar to the 4th-and-1 situation from your own 40-yard line in football. Analysis has shown clearly that the odds favor going for a first down instead of punting, but the conservative call is traditional and safe. No one will fault the coach for making that call. Similarly, no one will fault Gardy for not sending the runner with two outs in the ninth; whereas if Repko goes and is thrown out, the manager will be questioned. But it is still the smarter play.