Tigers Sweep Yanks

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Every Yankee-hater’s heart is swelling glad tonight after the Detroit Tigers’ four-game sweep in the ALCS. It wasn’t just the Tigers’ domination – they were never behind in any game – it was how bad the Yankees looked. They got two (two!) runs off Detroit starting pitching in four games, and both were scored by someone named Eduardo Nunez, who wasn’t even on the Yankees’ playoff roster when the series started.
Not only were the Yankee hitters impotent, they gave us hope of bad years to come. Look down the lineup: Ichiro is fading – Seattle was much improved by his departure. Curtis Granderson was exposed as a strikeout artist, and he’s on the wrong side of 30, too. Robinson Cano, supposedly the best player in New York and the only youth in the Yankee lineup, set a record by going 0-for-29 and responded with lackluster effort and poor defense. Derek Jeter, my personal bete noire for his smug manner, epitomizing ‘Yankee cool,’ broke his ankle and, at 37, will have a hard time ever reaching this year’s level. Nick Swisher is probably at the end of his time with the Yankees; and Mark Texeira, who mishandled two ground balls today, has, it’s safe to say, peaked. A-Rod? He’s been in steady decline and was thoroughly humiliated by his own manager as well as the Tiger pitchers, lefthanded and right. Who are the backups? Eric Chavez, Brett Gardner, a catcher no one has heard of – where will the Yankees turn next year, while they are still paying huge salaries to all of the above? Their pitching is forgettable, as well. Andy Pettite and Mariano Rivera are in the twilights of their careers. C.C. Sabathia is the only solid starter, and the Tigers rocked him tonight. It’s no stretch to believe that his best years are behind him. Somehow the Yankees compiled the AL’s best regular-season record this year. Including the playoffs, though, they were barely ahead of the Orioles. You have to think – with great pleasure – that this particular dynasty has ended.
As a Twins fan, my delight at the Tigers’ success is slightly alloyed with the recognition that they are now the dynasty to contend with. Theoretically, all their players still could have their best years ahead of them. Austin Jackson gets better every season, and they pulled a player out of Double-A, Avilais Gomez, who looked right at home facing the Yankees in the playoffs. Miguel Cabrera has obviously matured since his meltdown before the one-game playoff with the Twins a few years ago, and it is a pleasure to watch him hit, he is so completely comfortable at the plate. The most fun, though, is Prince Fielder, who seems to enjoy himself 100% of the time and brings that joy to his teammates, too. What a contrast to their Twins counterparts, Mauer and Morneau. Watching Fielder catch the final out today, motioning everyone away from a routine popup, brought tears to my eyes that I hadn’t felt since Argo. Then there is Justin Verlander, who is not only the most fun pitcher to watch because of his control and his stuff, it turns out he’s a fun personality, too. He was miked up for a half-inning of today’s game and held his own with the TBS announcers.
Speaking of announcers, the Tigers-Yankees series was a pleasure to watch. Ernie Johnson calls a clean game and his commentators – Ron Darling and John Smoltz – were smart and never intrusive – i.e., the exact opposite of Tim McCarver, who is doing the NLCS on Fox with Joe Buck. The TBS postgame show was also excellent, largely because of Dennis Eckersley, although Cal Ripken was also a creditable contributor (David Wells not so much). I also highly applaud a TBS innovation – keeping the pitch-track box on the screen for the entire at-bat, showing not only where the last pitch went, but where every pitch in the sequence crossed the plate. How long until this is standard on every baseball broadcast?
Will the World Series be an anticlimax? Probably, if only because I won’t be able to concentrate on the games, with McCarver babbling pointlessly. Also, I’m not as familiar with either St. Louis or San Francisco as I was with the American Leaguers, and from what I’ve seen of the Cardinals I don’t like their facial hair. I will hope that the Tigers continue to roll. Maybe a World Series win will make them less hungry next year. But for the moment, I can’t begrudge their potential supremacy over my Twins. I am first and foremost a Yankee-Hater at heart.

Instant Replay, Baseball Edition

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The horrible call in last night’s Yankees-Tigers game that resulted in two very unearned runs for the Tigers could easily be avoided by a system that Major League Baseball does not appear to be considering, perhaps because it is the exact same system that the NFL currently uses: give each manager two challenges a game. Balls and strikes would be excluded, of course – just as many species of decision cannot be challenged in football – but everything else is fair game. With only two challenges at his disposal, a manager would have to be wary about using them – thus, saving them for game-changing moments and plays where the evidence should be clear.
Rather than slowing the game, a challenge system would speed it up. No longer would we have to wait for the manager to come trotting out of the dugout, engage in a lengthy conversation often requiring the presence of other umpires, then slowly tromp back to his seat, if he hasn’t been ejected, which then consumes a further minute or two. Under my proposal, he could toss a red flag from his back pocket without even moving; a replay official in the booth upstairs would review as many replay angles as are needed or available; he would then communicate electronically with the home plate, or other designated, umpire; and the call would either stand or be reversed. Further appeal would be futile. Note the one change from the NFL: there would be no need for the umpire or umpires to leave the field and look at the replays themselves, as baseball currently does for its limited home run/not home run review. If the missed call isn’t obvious to independent eyes in the skybox, the call stands.
Last night, Infante was out by two feet on Cano’s tag, and every replay angle showed the same thing. In sixty seconds, the call could have been corrected and the game could have proceeded without controversy. As for second-guessing the umpire, what umpire wants to be remembered for a bad call? And if MLB wants to proceed even more cautiously in this direction, start with one challenge per game. I’ll bet most will never be used, and pointless arguing will be curtailed even further. If a manager doesn’t have the courage to throw his flag, how seriously will the umpire take the manager who comes out to complain?

First Impression – ugh!

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It’s hard to look worse in your first four games than have the Twins, and although the first week of a baseball season is an unreliable indicator I fear the prospects for Minnesota this year are pretty clear, and pretty grim. I have only witnessed one game myself – yesterday’s home opener against the Angels – but I suspect my initial conclusions will hold up. I would love to be wrong.
The Angels are one of the more loaded teams in the American League, but there are at least five others at their level, on paper, so it is not farfetched to compare their lineup to the Twins. Other than possibly Denard Span in center, there isn’t a single position where the Angels don’t have superior talent. Joe Mauer is the Twins’ best player, but he played first base yesterday, where the Angels have Albert Pujols. (Not that Mauer looked particularly good yesterday, making one error and striking out twice.) Danny Valencia at third and Alexi Casilla at second are both on “cross-your-fingers” status, players the Twins brass are hoping, without much justification, will have break-out years. It’s more likely that this will be the year their “promise” is snuffed out. At shortstop, 38-year-old Jamey Carroll is a stopgap, someone to hold the fort while minor leaguers develop. He got fist-bumps and pats on the back yesterday for hitting a short fly to left.
The only two players who impressed at all yesterday were Josh Willingham, a defensive liability in left but a professional hitter, and in all an upgrade over Delmon Young of last year, and Glen Perkins, who is the real deal as a lefty reliever. Saddest of all is the duo of Mauer and Morneau, both shells of their former MVP selves. They will make contact along the way, but may not hit 25 homers between them. They form one of the least fearsome lineup middles in the league (cf. Cabrera and Fielder in Detroit). Then there is Trevor Plouffe, a good AAA hitter but not ready for prime time.
After knocking the Twins position players, it is worth noting that they are not considered the weakness of this team: that would be the pitching staff. Francisco Liriano is a head case. Carl Pavano and Nick Blackburn are competent and can usually hold the opposition to four runs, which is three more than the Twins have so far been able to score. I like Scott Baker, but it appears he will not be healthy at all this year. If the Twins were to ever be in the lead in the ninth, Matt Capps is unlikely to make it hold up. He throws straight fastballs that opposing hitters invariably square up on.
Finally, there is the intangible of team chemistry. Much has been made, as it should be, of the fact that Mauer and Morneau, the team leaders, are quiet individuals who don’t do much leading. With 14 new players on the roster, many others are unsure of their own status and unlikely to rally others. Valencia is unliked, Casilla’s head is in the clouds, Parmelee, Plouffe and Revere are basically rookies, Doumit, Willingham and Carroll are newcomers with modest credentials. That leaves Denard Span, who is mostly in the Mauer-Morneau mold and fighting his own concussion history. When the Twins come to bat, you sense nine individuals simply doing their job, not a united, aggressive bunch eager to attack the pitcher.
Which raises the question, what do you do with Ron Gardenhire? Traditionally, a manager who presides over back-to-back 99-loss seasons would be history. The Twins, almost unique in pro sports, have shown great loyalty to managers, and it’s hard to blame Gardy for the mediocre players he’s been given. Still, if this season goes as I expect it to, I would applaud shaking things up by bringing in a new manager, sooner than later. The Twins need an edge, which is something Gardenhire can’t provide. And a new manager would spare us Gardy’s postgame bromides – the opposing pitcher who was throwing the heck out of the ball, the way our boys kept battling back, etc. – or at least provide some new ones.

March Be Gone

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What a dismal month for sports was March!
The number one story on Sports Center was, where will Peyton Manning play next year? If you aren’t already sick of Peyton Manning from the way he calls the game at the line of scrimmage, let alone his commercials, the O.J.-like coverage of his every plane trip would surely have sealed the deal. It only got worse when he signed with Denver, for then we had to endure more weeks of analysis concerning the Jets’ new second-string quarterback, Tim Tebow. Oh, and don’t forget the hyperventilating over the Saints’ bounty program. As someone else pointed out, the bounties weren’t the problem, it was the refs who failed to call a penalty when the Saints hit Brett Favre too low and too late.
As for the NBA, the air went out of the ball when both Ricky Rubio and Jeremy Lin were injured, ruining the only two new and interesting stories of the regular season, which, as always, is largely a yawn. I’d just as soon skip to the playoff finals between the Heat and the Thunder, but that won’t take place until June.
We gave tennis a shot by attending the opening round at Indian Wells, but anything less than the majors is skippable. I did watch one set of the Federer-Isner finals, but found it the most uninspired, uninspiring tennis final I’ve seen. As for the women, the top U.S. player is ranked 35, which raises the question, if one Russian beats another Russian, does anyone notice? The golf season, of course, begins in April with the Masters.
With no football or baseball, no NHL or NBA playoffs, and no majors in tennis or golf, the sports world is made to due with March Madness, the college basketball tournament that receives more hoopla each year. While admitting that I watched almost none of the games, I must say that this year’s was the least interesting in a long time. After two opening round upsets, there was nothing in the Cinderella department to root for, and that is always my main rooting interest. No VCU, Belmont, George Mason, or even Gonzaga. Nor, to judge from the daily highlights, was there any individual star to follow: no Jimmer Fredette, Bryce Drew, Dwayne Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Larry Bird. Everyone gushed over Anthony Davis, and he may be a wonderful team player; but so is Tim Duncan, and no one pays to see him play. The fact that the best team won, and won handily, took some life from the event.
In short, I am more than ready for the newness, the unpredictability and the daily interest of the major league baseball season. The Twins have 14 new players and a new radio announcer. Bring on baseball! But protect us, please, from the Tigers.

Timid Baserunning

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While Gardy’s conservative managing style seems to pay off, year after year, I admit I get frustrated at his unwillingness to let his faster players try to steal second more often. Lots of good things can happen on stolen base attempts: the pitcher can be slow to the plate, the pitch can be hard to handle, the catcher can drop the ball and, most often, the throw to second can be offline. Even the best catchers throw out only 33% of potential base stealers, and that statistic includes the easier play at third base.
In the Twins’ first loss to the Yankees this year, they were down, 4-3, in the 8th inning when Nishi got an infield single with one out. To score him from first with the tying run, the Twins would have needed two more singles against All-Star closer Rafael Soriano. The TV announcers expected him to run, but he didn’t, until the count was 3-2, at which point Mauer flied to left, and he stayed put during Morneau’s at bat.
Then in the next inning, against uber-closer Mariano Rivera, Jason Kubel hit a two-out single and Jason Repko was brought in to pinch-run. Now tell me, what were the odds, historically, of the next two batters, #s 8 and 9 in the order, getting hits off Rivera? Undoubtedly less than the odds that Repko would be safe at second on a steal, and perhaps even get to third on a bad throw, from which it would take only one hit to tie the game.
In a way, this is similar to the 4th-and-1 situation from your own 40-yard line in football. Analysis has shown clearly that the odds favor going for a first down instead of punting, but the conservative call is traditional and safe. No one will fault the coach for making that call. Similarly, no one will fault Gardy for not sending the runner with two outs in the ninth; whereas if Repko goes and is thrown out, the manager will be questioned. But it is still the smarter play.

The Twins – Postseason and Beyond

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After a surprisingly successful 94-win season in 2010, the Minnesota Twins will be facing their nemesis and mine, the New York Yankees, in the AL Division Series in two days. Just as sportswriters have to vote on player awards before the postseason begins, I should memorialize my thoughts on the state of the Twins as they conclude this campaign and transition into the future.

First, an admission of error. I pronounced in June that the Twins would go “as far as Justin Morneau takes them.” As it happened, Morneau, enjoying the best year of his career, suffered a concussion before the All-Star Game and never played again, yet the Twins played their best ball without him. On the other hand, I also identified Jon Rauch as, at best, a stopgap closer. The Twins apparently agreed, for they picked up Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps and relegated Rauch to 7th-inning duty.

Strengths and Weaknesses. The Twins’ strengths are 1) relief pitching, 2) depth of starting pitching, 3) team defense, and 4) a balanced offense. What they lack: 1) a #1 starter, 2) home run power, 3) speed, and 4) depth at catcher and in the outfield. Losing Joe Nathan for the year was a blow, but it spurred the Twins to add personnel that resulted in a stronger bullpen than if Nathan were still around. Randy Flores was a complete bust, and we need never hear his name again. But Matt Capps, acquired from Washington, seems the equal of Nathan, and he is several years younger. The real coup, however, was then adding Brian Fuentes (why did the Angels let him go? Why did the White Sox miss him on waivers?). Not only is he an experienced closer who is lefthanded and can shut teams down in the 8th inning, his presence freed up Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain for the 7th or earlier, where they seem to be more effective. Throw in Jose Mijares, who can be unhittable for lefthanded batters when he isn’t wild and Gardy has all the pieces for the relief ballet he likes to dance.

There is a certain sameness to Blackburn, Baker and Slowey, all young righthanded middle-of-the-rotation type guys, who can be alternately lights-out or bombed. I love watching them when they’re on, but whether we’ll ever see more than a 15-win year from any of them is an open question. Carl Pavano was the Twins’ ace this year, and despite some subpar outings in September, he is the best bet to hold the Yankees to two runs when he pitches. Whether that will produce a win is the issue. Liriano has a devastating slider, and when he can spot his fastball he is a strikeout machine. He is, however, erratic and more prone to emotion than the righthanders, and I don’t like his chances against C.C.Sabathia, even at home. Brian Duensing has done remarkably well, given his lack of pedigree and experience, and if he continues to improve can be a cornerstone for years to come. You will note that these names add up to six, and since a team generally needs only five starters, that means one will sit out – for the ALDS it seems to be Baker, an erstwhile Opening Day starter. Also in the wings is Glen Perkins, who has been an effective starter in the past and is still young. Does that mean the Twins needn’t resign free agent Pavano, or should trade a starter for a more pressing need, like an outfielder, or backup catcher? Given the fact that someone is always hurt, it may be more necessity than luxury to have someone in reserve. But if Pavano demands a long-term deal, or someone offers something good for Perkins, I would let them go.

Defense has been a hallmark of the Twins in recent years, and for most of this year the Twins had a ridiculously low number of errors. All the same, there are no obvious Gold Glovers on the team (if Mauer wins one, it will be for his hitting), Cuddyer was merely an adequate replacement for Morneau at first, Young is well below average in leftfield and Kubel is competent but not fast in right. If Morneau comes back next year, Cuddyer can return to right, which leaves left as the problem spot. If the Twins can add one player for next year, it should be a speedy leftfielder, who can occasionally spell Span in center. That would allow Young and Kubel to form a powerful left-right DH tandem and allow them to give Span, Cuddyer and even Morneau the occasional rest they could have used this season.

The infield epitomizes the Twins’ offensive balance, now that rookie Danny Valencia is a fixture at third (what an arm!). Hudson, Valencia and, to a lesser degree, Hardy, Punto and Casilla all contributed big games without overpowering anyone. What will become of the middle infield next year? I was frankly surprised that both Hudson and Hardy worked out as well as they did, but I’m not sure Hardy did enough to lay any longterm claim to the shortstop position. If Casilla were slightly less flashy, I would take him over Hardy. I would certainly rather have him at bat in the 9th inning with the game on the line. Trevor Plouffe seems to be rising through the minors. If he is the answer at short, then Casilla can play second, with Punto in his usual super-reserve role and the Twins would have an exciting, affordable infield for several years to come.

I’ve addressed outfield depth above – Jason Repko has been a fine fill-in, but is offensively challenged – which leaves the gap at backup catcher. Joe Mauer, for one reason or another, is unlikely to catch more than 110 games a year, so this is a serious need. Drew Butera is good behind the plate, but a black hole at it. I was counting on Jose Morales to be an upgrade on Mike Redmond, but for some reason Gardy finds him defensively deficient. It may be easier to improve Morales’s skills than to find anyone better via trade.

Home run power raises some interesting points about Delmon Young. He doubled his output from last year, and his 21 homers placed him behind only Jim Thome’s 25 on the Twins’ meager list. (The Blue Jays, by contrast, had seven players with 21 or more homers, led by Jose Bautista’s 54!) The Twins thought they were getting a power hitter when they traded Matt Garza to the Rays for Young, but it has taken three years for even his potential to show up. There is no chance the Twins will find another home-run hitter for next year. Valencia showed some power and could help. Morneau’s return to health would provide the biggest boost, and if Mauer could add just a tad more oomph, his warning-track drives would bring back his numbers of a year ago. If Bautista can go from 18 to 54 in one year, maybe the Twins’ best hope is for a similarly miraculous burst from, say, Cuddyer. What I wanted to say about Delmon Young, though, is this: for two years, we thought the Rays had gotten the better of that trade: Jason Bartlett has lasted much longer at shortstop in Tampa than Brendan Harris has in Minnesota, but they were the sideshow. Garza’s success on the mound, including in postseason, underlined Young’s underachievements before this year. But as we’ve just seen, the Twins have much greater need for power hitting than for pitching. Garza, this year, is not markedly better than any of the six Twins starters; they simply don’t need him. Young, on the other hand, led the Twins in rbi’s and is an immensely better hitter than anyone the Twins could replace him with in the outfield – see, e.g., Repko, above. So this trade should probably eventually go down as a win-win for both sides.

Finally, the above analysis omits this year’s principal DH, Jim Thome. Will he return? At one point he said, or implied, that if the Twins win the World Series, he could go out on top. Let’s hope that happens.

Instant Replay

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Very shortly after the Armando Gallarage/Jim Joyce unperfect-game situation occurred, I settled on the instant-replay solution that is being more and more talked about, and it is simply this:
Give each manager one challenge flag, but one flag only, that he can use at any point in the game for anything other than a ball-and-strike call.
First, challenges will be rare. Unlike football, with its fumbles, trapped passes and out-of-bounds steps, baseball has very few close calls that require a second look.
Second, if the manager is limited to one challenge, he will not use it unless it is at a significant juncture, and he will want to save it for the end of the game, when a call may be decisive.
Third, it will not delay the game. The rules should require that a challenge flag may only be thrown from the dugout before the manager has left it. Thus, it will replace what would otherwise often be a lengthy argument that is a real game-delayer. Similarly, the rules should state that it is an automatic ejection if a manager leaves the dugout after throwing the flag.
Fourth, there need be no confusion, as there is in the NFL, over what calls can be challenged. Any call that a replay shows to be clearly erroneous may be reversed. Through experience, a smart manager will learn which those calls are.
Fifth, human error will remain in the game. Old-timers who say, we’ve always lived with bad calls, they’re a part of the game, need not feel deprived. If the umpires make 100 calls in a game, only two can be challenged, leaving 98 possible errors to live with, not even counting balls and strikes.
So much for the objections. What is the upside? Quite simply, there is less chance that a game will be decided on an obviously wrong call, thus serving the demands of competitive justice. For the umpire, there is less chance that his name will live in infamy, a la Don Denkinger or Jim Joyce. For the fan, there is one more chance to second-guess the manager: should he have used his challenge there or not?
Baseball changes, not always for the better – look at the DH, interleague play, etc. Adding one instant reply would be relatively modest. I am ready, in fact, for something more drastic: a laser-defined strike zone. Why put up with umpires’ wildly inconsistent strike zones? Why stand for your favorite hitter’s being called out on a pitch six inches off the plate? Why should Joe Mauer’s strike zone be accorded more weight than a rookie’s? Look at how tennis has adapted, and survived, with “hawkeye” replacing linespersons on the service line. The game of baseball would be just as good, with a lot less whining, if we heard a beep, or saw a light go on, whenever the pitch passed through the strike zone. I don’t think the umpires union is quite ready, however.

The Save – Part 2

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After the Twins blew a four-run lead in the ninth inning Saturday night against the lowly Brewers, Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse astutely criticised Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire for managing for statistics. By that Reusse meant that if the lead had been three runs, Gardy would have brought in his closer, Jon Rauch, to pitch the 9th; but because the lead was four – and it was therefore not a “save” situation – he used the less dependable Ron Mahay, until Mahay had loaded the bases and the Twins turned to Rauch, unfortunately too late.
In any other situation, Gardenhire would bring in whichever reliever was best positioned to get the job done. Since the job here was closing the game, and Rauch is his closer and hadn’t pitched recently, Rauch was the logical choice. Except for the mindset that Gardenhire, like many other managers, won’t use his closer unless there is a save to be gained. But designating a three-run margin as a save situation is an arbitrary stat-driven determination – one that, like the closer role, didn’t exist for much of baseball history. In every other aspect I can think of, the game is played to win, and the statistics are compiled after the fact, and fall where they may. This is the only instance I can think of where an arbitrary statistic itself determines how the game is played.

O-Dog Paws the Ground

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A favorite moment from my first visit to the new Target Field came on Orlando Hudson’s first at-bat. I had heard he was loquacious, ebullient, effervescent and all the rest, but I had never witnessed him in person. He gave a love-pat to umpire Tim Tschida, then rubbed his hand over the head of Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez. Next, he methodically rubbed out every trace of the chalk line delineating the back of the batter’s box, which to that point hadn’t been touched. Finally, he brazenly planted his back foot well behind the line that was now missing its chalk. I don’t think Tschida said a word.
My other impression was a reaction against the common refrain that there isn’t a bad seat in the house. I can name one: Section 123, Row 27, Seat 11, the ticket I purchased, albeit for only $20, on the street. The problem is the overhang from the upper deck, which might be nice on a rainy day, but otherwise means you’re not sitting in the sun, you can’t follow the flight of fly balls, you can’t see the main scoreboard or the downtown skyline. There is a TV monitor, but at a day game it is backlit and hard to see. I also found I had to twist my body to watch home plate, a problem at the Metrodome that I thought would be ameliorated in the baseball-only park. The lines at concession stands were horrendous, largely due to inexperienced servers, and the hot dogs weren’t very good; but I’m hoping those problems can be rectified. As for the seats, I will try something different next time.

Twins Preview

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Before the first pitch of the 2010 season, I should make my predictions. First, however, is a resolution: to be patient. Last year was not the first time that I gave up on the Twins in midseason, only to have them ultimately win their division. I die a little with each loss, not accepting that 72 losses would still constitute a successful season. By the same token, I may despair of a player who is hitting .200 in April, only to find that he is among the league leaders by October. So, a hasty judge this year I will not be.

The Twins, remarkably, open the season with no rookies; so we should have a decent idea of what to expect. Except there are two areas of Unknown: 1., the middle infield, and 2. the closer. At short and second the Twins have brought in J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson. Both are Gold Glove winners and former All-Stars, which augurs well. But both fell out of favor with their teams last year, which is why they are Twins now. It would be nice, but wholly unlikely, for both to regain their All-Star form. More likely, one will have been replaced in the lineup before the season is over. The good news is that the players who would otherwise have started at these positions – Punto, Casilla, Tolbert – will still available. Third base is a perpetual issue, but I am content to have Punto and Harris to contend there, with Danny Valencia in the minors awaiting his turn. Both players will make the most of their opportunities, and neither is a sulker. Justin Morneau makes me nervous, only because his spring slump mirrors the late-season slumps he has produced the last two years. He can carry the team when he is hot, but I fear that more and more pitchers are learning his weak spot.

Young, Span and Cuddyer are set in the outfield, the only question being how much DH Kubel will sub in, and Mauer will catch. He isn’t the greatest clutch hitter I’ve seen, but it’s hard to argue with a .350 average and three batting titles in four years.

Which brings us to the closer. I haven’t been a Joe Nathan fan, although it’s also hard to argue with his record. For me, a dominant closer is Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera, guys who give you no chance. Nathan let runners get on base, and his demeanor on the mound, the heavy breathing, made me nervous. But everyone knew his place, which let Gardy manage by the book, the way he likes. For now, Jon Rauch has been designated the closer. Few expected this, and fewer expect it to last all season. That’s okay, as many teams change, or find, closers in midstream. Two years ago, Jose Mijares looked like he had the stuff to be the closer of the future, but last year he couldn’t throw strikes to the first batter, which is a problem for a closer. Three years ago, Pat Neshek looked like a future closer. How well he comes back from arm surgery is still a question, but he has the temperament to close, which Mijares probably doesn’t, yet. Last year the best option looked like Francisco Liriano, who was devastating for two or three innings of each start, and then faltered. But he doesn’t want it, and to be a closer you’ve got to want it. Matt Guerrier has been mentioned, but to me he’s just steady, not dominant enough, and he tends to give up the long ball. My guess is that, unless Liriano flops as a starter and sees the light or Neshek comes back strong, the Twins will be in the market in July for one more reliever.

Will they win? If Baker, Slowey and Blackburn continue to improve and Pavano holds up, I’d say they should. Will I throw in the towel if they are not in first place in August? No. I promise.