Twins Resurgent

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[fusion_text]Of all the times this year I have given up on the Twins, counted them out for the year, been resigned to their mediocrity, perhaps none was as premature as last night. After erupting for four runs against White Sox ace Chris Sale in the second inning, the Twins were coasting at home. Rookie starter Tyler Duffey had faced 14 batters and gotten 14 outs. He didn’t get another. His three straight walks were demoralizing; then a bloop double and home run off two different relievers in the sixth inning left the Twins suddenly trailing, 5-4, in a game they should have, and had to, win. Barely hanging onto the final wild-card berth, a loss here to start September would surely spell doom.

Then, like a bolt from Thor, the game turned back on one swing from Miguel Sano, the biggest reason these Twins may no longer be the fluke they have seemed for much of the summer. After tying the game in the seventh, the Twins broke it open with three runs in the eighth with a good bunt by Suzuki, baserunning by Buxton and even a “clutch” hit by Mauer. This presented Glen Perkins with another gift “save,” in which he allowed three hits and one run and didn’t miss a bat all night. The Twins are alive for one more day, playing “meaningful” games in September. Who would have thought?

The quotation marks above point me to three final thoughts. The resurgent Twins have been powered by their new players, Sano, Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar, with admirable fill-in play from Eduardo Nunez. The veterans Dozier, Plouffe and Suzuki have been steady, although hitting a combined .240-something. The one player who hasn’t been leading is Joe Mauer, who is taking down more salary than the rest of the starting lineup combined. He chips in with singles and rbi’s and a .275 average that would be respectable for a catcher or a power hitter, but he is neither. Furthermore, he is under that contract for three more years, posing the question of what the Twins will do with him as their young stars mature. He is merely adequate as a first baseman, a position either Sano or Plouffe could fill with power.

Perkins’s save was too similar to almost all his outings since (and including) the All-Star Game. His first two blown saves crushed the team’s spirit – based on their play in the games that followed – and were both among the times I wrote them off for the year. Maybe his sore neck was responsible, but if he was healthy last night he didn’t look much better. By contrast, Yankees closer Andrew Miller struck out the side in his ninth inning, which is the kind of confidence-inspiring performance you want from a closer. Complicating, but perhaps helping, the situation is the emergence of both Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen as shut-down relievers. Jepsen fared well in Perkins’s absence, but what will allow Paul Molitor to use him in place of Perkins now that Perkins is back?

Finally, I should add some perspective to the meaningfulness of the Twins’ September. Yes, they could sneak into the wild-card game, although Texas, with Cole Hamels, should have an edge over Minnesota’s unpredictable starting staff. But is this any better than making the NBA Playoffs as the eighth seed from the Eastern Conference? The Twins don’t have an ace to play in the one-game wild-card playoff. And if they survive that – seemingly against the Yankees, who have dominated them – they would run into the Blue Jays, Astros or Royals, all of whom are playing on a different level. Still, it could be a good learning experience for the rookies to build on in 2016; so I will continue to watch and hope.

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Backyard Birding

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[fusion_text]Inspired by a chance encounter with a Pacific Coast Flycatcher in the olive grove next to our guest house I decided to head outside before breakfast – not that early, but, at 7:30, before the neighborhood chain saws and power drills whirr into action. From the back terrace I was rewarded with the sight of two black-capped Wilson’s Warblers hopping around some echium bushes. I wandered down to see the flowering agave in the cactus garden and the four or five Anna’s hummingbirds flitting in and out. To my pleasant surprise a male and female Hooded Oriole landed on the agave spike. They quickly departed, but I was thrilled with their visit. I had seen them in the two tall palms that came with our house, but since the palms’ removal I hadn’t seen any orioles here. The sighting of these unusual species, after watching a blue-grey gnatcatcher in my bottlebrush tree the week before, convinced me to start my Yard List, which I will do once I determine where to keep it.

A short p.s. on the Wilson’s Warblers: seeing a pair together, I assumed they would be male and female, but seeing bold black caps on both I wavered, thinking the cap was exclusive to the female. Turning to Sibley for elucidation, my uncertainty continued. He pictures a first-year female without black cap but says or shows nothing about a mature female. My other guides are similarly vague, leaving me to conclude that the female may or may not have as bold a black cap as the male, and thinking it probably was both hanging together in my echium.[/fusion_text]

Surprising Twins at the Break

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Since I have written off the Twins twice already, I owe them a positive notice at the traditional midsummer break, which finds them with the third best record in the entire American League. Regardless of what transpires the rest of the year, I applaud them from turning a projected wasted year into a season of captivating baseball. For many reasons, the Twins have been fun to watch.

1. The starting rotation is amazingly better than last year’s. I’ll bet the Twins pitchers have recorded more “quality starts” by mid-July than they logged all last season. That means that, win or lose, the Twins are in almost every game. There is no Chris Sale or David Price ace, but Tommy Milone and Kyle Gibson have been solid, limiting the opposition to a run here, a run there, nothing more. Phil Hughes hasn’t been the number one starter he was last year, but both he and Mike Pelfrey are good for six innings more often than not. Trevor May has shown the potential to pair with Gibson for years to come, while his replacement, Ervin Santana, has the look of a competent pitcher in his two starts, one good, one bad.

2. Rookies have been a surprise. Principally, this means Eddie Rosario, who was called up as an injury replacement and has shown no sign of ever leaving. He hits lefties and righties and uses all fields and is a wonderful defensive upgrade from Oswaldo Arcia, who started the year in left. It’s too soon to declare Miguel Sano as established, but he sure looks comfortable and has shown the power the Twins sorely lacked. Both he and Byron Buxton were projected as late-season callups once the race was over, but both vaulted up much sooner from Double-A. In Buxton’s case, it may be premature: he looked lost against breaking pitches before he was injured and he was thrown out both times he tried to steal; but his athleticism is obvious and there is hope he can still develop as a hitter (see the following).

3. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have gone from mediocre hole-pluggers to legitimate Major League regulars, the kind we saw on teams in the ’50s. Both have solidified the Twins’ infield defense and, pending Sano’s emergence, represent what passes for power on the Twins. Dozier’s walk-off homer against Detroit, when the Twins came back from 6-1 down in the ninth, just may have given his team the confidence it needs to contend this year. It certainly sparked them to wins against the Tigers the next two days, turning around the psychology of that important matchup.

4. Everyone is chipping in. The Twins are just as likely to get runs from the bottom of the lineup as the middle. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Rosario and even the formerly forlorn Aaron Hicks have all contributed to the offense. Other days it is Torii Hunter, Dozier and Plouffe. Joe Mauer is having another terrible year and leads the league in warning-track outs, but somehow is the team’s statistical leader in hitting with runners in scoring position.

5. Torii Hunter has given the team a personality. We don’t get to see them dancing in the locker room after wins, but we do see the three outfielders’ synchronized leap at game’s end and you get the feeling that everybody gets along and is having fun playing the game.

A lot could go wrong in the second half. Dozier and Plouffe, who are irreplaceable, could go into prolonged slumps. Opposing pitchers could discover a flaw in Sano’s swing. Hunter will turn 40. Once any of the pitchers starts to get pummeled, they could all lose confidence. Perkins has been perfect in save opportunities, but he is hardly unhittable. And just as the Royals have lost Alex Gordon and the Tigers Miguel Cabrera, someone could get hurt, exposing the Twins’ lack of depth. But I’ll take my chances; there are enough good story lines to follow and whatever the Twins do, I’ll be watching.

All-Star Idiocy

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[fusion_text]I voted 32 times for Brian Dozier to be added to the All-Star roster. Needless to say, he was outpolled by the Kansas City Royal he was up against (forget the other three). Why Major League Baseball would nominate a Royal as one of five nominees for the final fan-selected spot boggles the mind, when six Royals have already been chosen by the fans and made a mockery of the fan-selection process. But more fundamentally, I am left to wonder who decided that every fan – or more accurately, every computer account – should be able to vote 35 times! What happened to one man, one vote? Do we think this encourages fan involvement with the game when someone has to sit at his computer and press the vote button 35 times? Or does MLB think we will be impressed when the number of votes is in the hundreds of thousands?

Clearly, this whole process is ripe for reconsideration. I would let the fans vote – once each – but have their selection count as one-third the total. Let the players vote and have their vote count a third. As for the tie-breaker, an SI writer suggested giving a vote to the GMs, as the most knowledgeable authorities. I would rather give the vote to baseball beat writers – that would, at least, add some journalistic interest. If no one receives a majority – i.e., if each constituency votes for a different player – then let the fans reign supreme.[/fusion_text]

Twins Fall Fast

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[fusion_text]One week after the Twins had the best record in the American League they are falling toward mediocrity, and maybe more. When they were in first I had no idea, as I suggested in a previous post, what they were doing there. As for why they have lost four straight, with more to come, the answer is obvious: they are just not that good. More particularly, their offense was a mirage that has now evaporated. When your only hitter with double-digit home runs is your leadoff batter (after 60 games) you know there’s a power shortage. Then throw in .260 averages for your best regulars, including number-three hitter Joe Mauer, and the lack of run production is totally predictable.

The Twins’ starting pitching has been remarkably good. Without an established ace, the starters are churning out quality start after quality start. All that accomplishes, though, is putting the spotlight on the sputtering attack. Earlier in the season, things were going so well that we didn’t mind that hopes-of-the-future Buxton and Sano were still down in Double-A. Now, however, I am dying to see Buxton, at least, called up, if only so I don’t have to watch Aaron Hicks suffer. The relief pitching has been fine, but that only helps when the team is ahead (which is the only time Molitor will use his best: Boyer, Fien and Perkins). Now that Stauffer is gone, there is only Duensing to be cleared out. Oh, and they have to figure out what to do with Nolasco. It would be nice if another team wanted him.[/fusion_text]

Twins in First

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[fusion_text]I must acknowledge the Twins’ appearance, however fleeting, at the top of the AL East standings (5/28/15). This represents an extraordinary turnaround from their disastrous first week when I, and many others more informed than I, wrote them off for the season. It is also a surprise to the national prognosticators who uniformly picked the Twins to finish in the cellar for a third (or is it a fourth?) consecutive season.

How have they done it?, is the question, and despite watching many recent games on MLB.TV, I have no answer. They lack a power hitter, and no regular is batting over, or even close to, .300. Their defense is solid, if pedestrian. Their one historic All-Star, Joe Mauer, plays a power position, first base, but has one home run. Their relievers, with the exception of closer Glen Perkins, are pitchers I’d never heard of. Perkins, it is true, is 18 for 18 in save situations, but he’s been doing more like Eddie Guardado than Mariano Rivera.

The most obvious group that should be credited with the Twins’ resurgence is the starting rotation. Again, though, there is no dominant pitcher and no breakout star. In fact, the one pitcher who was supposed to anchor the rotation, Ervin Santana, will not join the team for another month because of his drug suspension. Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May and Pelfrey have all looked terrible at times, but seemingly on cue they have all begun to build comfortably winning records. Perhaps they realize that the first to falter will be replaced by Santana, if not an original member of the rotation, Tommy Milone, who is tearing up Triple-A.

The best explanation I can offer comes down to the intangible that may be the most important difference between winning and losing in sports, and that is confidence. Once the Twins started winning with their anonymous lineup, they began to believe they should be winning and the cycle kept repeating itself. Maybe this came from the positive spirit brought in by Torii Hunter. Maybe it’s due to new manager Paul Molitor. Maybe the critical mass of Latin players who relaxed each other. Who knows? The next question is, what will happen when the inevitable losing streak arrives? Will the confidence crumble and the wheels fall off, exposing the obvious talent deficiencies?

All I know for sure (and the same thing has been stated by the reporters and broadcasters covering the team) is that the Twins have become a fun team to watch and made me cautiously optimistic, but no more, about the summer of baseball to come.

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Defensive Indifference

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[fusion_text]When the Twins have a lead larger than one in the ninth and a baserunner reaches first, they routinely decline to hold him on, giving him a free run to second base but allowing the first baseman to play behind the runner in presumably a better defensive position. Rather than registeringing this a stolen base, baseball scores this a nullity,  calling it “defensive indifference.” There is one additional marginal benefit: it allows Twins closer Glen Perkins to focus all his attention on the batter.

I am waiting for the statheads to pronounce on the wisdom of this maneuver, but until I see the empirical evidence let me give my view: I hate it, and I shall now count the ways.

One: allowing the baserunner to move from first to second eliminates the force play at second. I have frequently seen the play – the ground ball up the middle, the ground ball in the shortstop hole – where an out was possible at second base but not at first. Rarer, in my experience, is the play where the first baseman could not get an out because he was holding the runner instead of playing behind him. Thus, defensively, the DI makes no sense.

Two: the pitcher’s ability to hold a runner on first atrophies. Perkins is the prime example. He so routinely allows the runner to take second that he has become terrible at holding on the runner when it is needed. You can look it up, but my sense is that he has one of the highest stolen-base percentages of any lefthanded pitcher. In his mind, all that is important is getting the batter out. Unfortunately, sometimes the batter gets a hit, and if a runner has stolen second that can mean a run and the lead.

Three: I don’t like to see “meaningless” runs. Sure, a 6-5 victory counts the same as 6-4, but it doesn’t feel the same. Someone has gotten an rbi and someone has scored a run they don’t deserve. The team gets credit for a “one-run win,” which some analysts down the line will use as a yardstick for clutch performance. And to the unwary distant observer, the game will look to have been closer than it actually was – just as an empty-net goal makes a hockey game appear more lopsided than it really was.

Four: Every athlete in professional sports should give full effort at all times. This is, admittedly, a moral view of sports that is subjective and personal. In club tennis we talk of giving a “courtesy game,” rather than winning 6-love, but no professional would expect, or probably want, such a courtesy. The extreme example was Brett Favre’s allowing Michael Strahan to tackle him at the end of a game so Strahan would set the sack record. Strahan’s record, as a result, is forever tainted. A run scored after DI is not as bad, but it’s in the same ballpark. Every run should be earned, is how I look at it.

My clincher on the inappropriateness of defensive indifference is this: baseball is a game of statistics, ad nauseum, ad infinitum. I have yet, however, to see a statistic relating in any way to DI (e.g., which team has given up the most). No one thinks of it as part of baseball, and it shouldn’t be.[/fusion_text][fusion_text]Click edit button to change this text.[/fusion_text]

Twins Report

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[fusion_text]It’s still early in the season, so perhaps it is not surprising that this year’s Twins are still searching for an identity. No pitcher has emerged as a stopper; no hitter has stepped up as clutch. They have won many more games than I feared they would after their disastrous opening series against the Tigers, but without any pattern. Each win has had a different hero.

The biggest hole so far seems to be the lack of a power hitter. Kennys Vargas showed strength and potential as a late call-up last year but has been too cold to even play everyday. Oswaldo Arcia has been similarly erratic, and neither of them is an asset defensively. Worse, the big hope for the future, Miguel Sano, missed last year with injury and is doing nothing in the minors this year. Every team needs a cleanup hitter, which the Twins just don’t have.

The offense, therefore, depends on Suzuki here, Santana there and the occasional pop from Plouffe. Mauer will hit .300, but many of those will be harmless singles and when he goes for power he just reaches the warning track. A lot of the other averages are closer to .200 than .300, which should correct itself; but I suspect that .250 will be enough to keep you in the Twins lineup this year. All this is enough to win some games but, depending on pitching, won’t get you above .500.

Aah, the pitching. Phil Hughes, the putative stopper, has yet to win, but has pitched okay. Kyle Gibson continues to be tough at home, worthless on the road. Then there are Ricky Nolasco and Mike Pelfrey, previous busts who may or may not regain form from a couple years ago. Since I started writing this report, the fifth starter, Tommy Milone, has been sent to the minors and replaced by Trevor May. In other words, the starting rotation is still in flux, and the relief corps even more so. Their only All-Star in the past is closer Glen Perkins, and while he is racking up saves, he isn’t blowing hitters away like he has. The rest of the bunch is pretty anonymous.

So, we will see. We can’t count on anything yet – not the pitching, nor the hitting, nor the defense and certainly not the baserunning. Yet after sweeping a home series against the White Sox, the Twins are looking better, surprisingly, than two of their four division foes. They are competitive. Whether they will be anything more is an open question. The Byron Buxton watch continues.[/fusion_text]

Instant Replay Redux

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[fusion_text]On consecutive nights, Jordan Schafer of the Twins 1) hit a soft liner to center that the outfielder dove for and appeared to catch, but when the play was challenged it was obvious that the ball had squirted out of the glove and rolled on the ground before being picked up again; and 2) made a diving catch to save a run that was ruled a trap until the replay showed that the ball never touched the ground. The same week, two runners that were called safe at first were shown, when challenged, to have reached the bag just after the ball. There was no manager running out of the dugout, kicking dirt, no complaints by either side, no discussions among umpires. How did baseball get along, one wondered, without replay challenges?

One reservation: when a White Sox base stealer was called out at second he hopped up, immediately asking his manager to challenge the call. It appeared to the Twins announcers (and me) that the call was incorrect, but after a review of the replay, the umpires confirmed their call. There simply wasn’t a camera angle that clearly showed when the tag was made. And thus, the Sox lost their challenge for the game.

Of all the sports that have adopted an instant replay challenge system, tennis is the cleanest. The camera technology always shows whether the ball is in or out, down to a millimeter. Plus, the replay is visible to spectators, so it becomes part of the entertainment.

Football probably has the longest history with replays – and the most problems. The principal one is that there are 22 big bodies around the ball, and sometimes there is no clear view of the play. Second, there is no clear line dividing when a player has control of the ball; thus, the question, did his knee touch the ground before the ball came loose is often debatable. The lack of clarity is evident when the TV announcers predict the review result and are wrong, which occurs regularly. The other problem in football is that the replay challenge, even when there is a clear result, can’t always undo the damage of a bad call. If the referee thinks the runner is down before he fumbles and, consequently, blows his whistle, and the fumble is recovered by the opposing team and run in for an apparent touchdown, the ball will be brought back to the spot of the fumble and the touchdown nullified, even if the replay shows the whistle should not have been blown.

In all, it is rather impressive how far and how fast instant replay challenges have infiltrated sports that have been around for years. The big question: how long until baseball allows the radar to call balls and strikes?[/fusion_text]

Super Bowl 2015

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However appropriate the hoorah over the Darrell Bevell/Pete Carroll call to throw a pass from the 1-yard line with 30 seconds to play, my lasting impression from the Patriots’ Super Bowl win will be that Malcolm Butler’s interception of Russell Wilson’s pass is the single greatest defensive play I have ever seen. First is the level of anticipation required to jump the route. I have seen hundreds of slant passes thrown and can’t remember a defensive back’s ever beating the receiver to the ball. The timing involved was exquisite, to get in the receiver’s path without interfering. Holding onto the ball, thrown directly at you from close range, with the receiver banging into you, raises the level of difficulty further. But what put this play in a category of its own was its impact on and the importance of the game. By itself, it turned a certain defeat into a certain victory, with no other factors playing a role. And the game was as big as they come: not only the Super Bowl, but a showdown between an aging dynasty and one in the making. The Immaculate Reception probably holds an equivalent spot in pro football offensive history (as does Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary pass for college football), but there was a lot of luck involved in the Steelers’ play (and, you could argue, in the B.C. play). Malcolm Butler’s interception, on the other hand, involved no luck, just great defense.

My other takeaway from the Patriot victory was their success with players who were undrafted, drafted in late rounds or released by other teams. I moan about the Vikings’ lack of talented players, especially at positions like running back, wide receiver and cornerback. Then I see the Patriots succeed with players like LaGarrette Blount, who was unused and allowed to walk away from his previous team, and the above-mentioned Malcolm Butler, who was out of football when the season started. They were perfectly available if the Vikings had wanted them. Do the Patriots have better scouts, better coaches, a better system? Whatever it is,  you can’t accuse them, like the old Yankees, of buying a championship. They set the standard, but it should be something any other team could do, too.