Twins Diary ’25

September 13: Even a meaningless game in the homestretch of a wasted season can provide thrills, with last night’s Twins-Diamondbacks game a great example. I turned it on in the bottom of the 9th inning, with the Twins behind, 8-6. Worse, I quickly realized, was that they had been ahead, 6-4, going into the 9th, but their woeful, post-trade-deadline bullpen had surrendered four runs. Actually, they had come off Cole Sands, the closest thing the Twins have to a competent reliever who will make the team next year. Usually, the Twins fold up and die in such a situation, but leadoff batter Kody Clemens ended a 10-pitch at bat with an opposite field home run, to cut the deficit to one. More exciting was the news that this was Clemens’s third homer of the game, the first Twin in five years to accomplish this feat. Clemens, who was hitting a pathetic .202 entering the game, also had a double and raised his average 11 points. Just as surprising, Eddie Julien then sliced a single to left, Buxton was HBP, Austin Martin walked on four pitches and Trevor Larnach, facing a leftie, walked on a 3-2 pitch to force in the tying run. Luke Keaschall, the Twins’ deserving rookie, clubbed a deep fly to left. It resulted in the first out of the inning, but also a walk-off win, with three obligatory Gatorade dumps to follow.

September 7: A footnote from the Friday box scores in today’s L.A. Times: The Colorado Rockies, on their way to a 120-loss season, have no one in their lineup hitting below .238. The Twins have six.

September 3: The last-place Chicago White Sox had not won a game when trailing in the 9th inning for more than a year–205 games, to be exact. Nor had they won a series in Minnesota since 2023. But tonight the Twins took a 3-1 lead into the 9th and lost 4-3 when Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa combined to give up three White Sox runs, the last two on a two-strike, two-out pitch to former Twin Michael A. Taylor, who had struck out his previous three at bats. It just goes to show what you can expect when you trade away your five top relief pitchers at the same time. The Twins are now officially the least interesting team in the American League and, with only the Colorado Rockies as a contender, perhaps the entire Major Leagues.

August 28: I’ve rarely seen a player who looked less like a professional athlete, let alone a Major League catcher, than the Twins’ Mickey Gasper. His build is slight for a position where the Cal Raleigh/Salvador Perez/Ryan Jeffers build is more the norm. His demeanor is timid, such that it is hard to imagine him calling the game for his pitcher. His face is boyish, despite a mustache that seems designed to mask his youth, although he’s 29 approaching 30. His catcher’s gear and batting helmet sit on him like something he’s borrowed from their rightful owner. The fact that he entered Tuesday’s game with Toronto on an 0-for-27 streak wasn’t all that surprising: he’s playing on the remnant Twins only because Christian Vazquez, the regular backup, is out, probably for the year, and the Twins have no prospects in the Minors. What was surprising, and indeed heartwarming, was watching Gasper hit his first Major League home run leading off the 9th inning to tie the game, 4-4, after he had hit two singles and scored a run earlier. That the Twins held on to win, 7-5, after Matt Wallner’s similarly rare three-run homer later in the inning, only made the occasion sweeter still.

One day after stunning the Blue Jays with only their second 9th-inning comeback of the year, the Twins returned the favor by blowing an 8-6 lead in the 8th. There were two principal culprits, both indicative of the Twins’ situation. The less obvious one was Byron Buxton, because he had given Minnesota much of its early lead with two solo home runs. What more could you expect from someone? The problem came in the top of the 8th inning. Twins led, 8-6, but you knew that lead was not safe, given the uncertainty of their relief corps. With two outs, the Twins had runners on second and third and Buxton at bat. A hit would have provided some comfort and certainly discouraged any Toronto comeback. But hitting with runners on base in a pressure situation is where Buck is weakest. Or maybe it is just that the pitcher is bearing down, as opposed to the game’s first pitch, where Buxton excels. Buxton swung at the first pitch, even though it was low and more than a foot outside. Clearly, he had decided to swing at the first pitch, regardless. He showed better control as the at-bat progressed, and worked the count to 3-2. I knew, you knew, and presumably Buxton must have known, the next pitch was going to be a breaking ball down and away, likely out of the strike zone (first base was open, remember). Nevertheless, Buxton swung and missed at a pitch he couldn’t reach. Buxton has good stats, great power, but can’t be counted on to even make contact when contact is all that is needed.
The second culprit was manager Rocco Baldelli, and the usual complaint is from his managing his relief corps. Once he got only four innings from starter Simeon Woods-Richardson, he had to cobble the rest of the game from his relievers. Baldelli’s obsession with never using a reliever for more than one inning meant here that he would need good outings from five pitchers–highly unlikely given the makeup of his current roster. One who has performed admirably is Thomas Hatch, who is also a long reliever, but Baldelli pulled Hatch after he pitched a 1-2-3 5th inning once he walked the leadoff batter in the 6th. This didn’t work particularly well as lefthander Kody Funderburk, brought in to face lefthanded hitters, gave up hits to the first two lefties he faced before retiring the third. Cole Sands then struck out the side in the 7th, but rather than seeing how he could handle a second inning, Baldelli brought in Genesis Cabrera, and the lead was soon gone.

August 20: One half inning tonight convinced me that the Twins should find a new manager for next season. In the 3rd inning, down 1-0 to the A’s, James Outman, in his first week, led off with a double. Ryan Fitzgerald, the Twins’ 31-year-old rookie, followed with a routine single to right. When he saw the rightfielder’s lob throw coming in to the cutoff man not to second base, he just kept running and made second easily. No other Twin would have tried that, which just goes to show the joy Fitzgerald has playing baseball. With runners on second and third, the Twins, as they always do, put on the “contact” play, otherwise known as the suicide play. When Buxton hit a one-hopper to third, Outman was out at home by ten feet. With runners then on first and third, the broadcasters kept expecting Buxton, who has yet to be caught this year, to steal second to obviate any double play possibility. The A’s pitcher, they observed, was a ground ball specialist. For five pitches Buxton never moved, and when Larnach hit a grounder to second on the sixth pitch, the A’s turned a double play and the Twins, after having runners on second and third with no outs, exited the frame scoreless.
To my mind, there were two obvious tactical – i.e., managerial – errors: the contact play with no outs and two runners in scoring position and failing to move Buxton off first. I’ll explain my reasoning on the first in a minute. But beyond the tactical errors, I saw the effects of Baldelli’s conservatism on his club. As I suggested, no player who had been playing for Baldelli for more than a month would have gone to second as Fitzgerald did. Then Buxton, who has learned nothing playing for Baldelli for years, used his usual all-or-nothing swing, pulling a grounder to third base. Contact to any other part of the field would have produced a run. And how great it would have been for Buxton to lay down a bunt, putting huge pressure on the defense. I’ve been waiting for Buxton to bunt for ten years now. Getting Outman in would not only have given the Twins a run and perhaps the victory (they lost, 4-2, in extra innings), it would have given Outman a psychological boost as he tries to make his new team.  Baldelli, in short, may be good managing established role players, but he won’t inspire new players, and let them, or make them, play aggressive baseball, which is what the new-look Twins will need next year.
Now, as to the strategic point:

August 16: With competitive baseball out of reach, you might think that the rest of the Twins season will consist of auditions for next year, except that few on the current roster figure to be in the Majors next year if the Twins are to be competitive. Among the pitchers, there’s Joe Ryan and, if he recovers from his injury, Pablo Lopez. Ohl, Adams, Urena should be distant memories. Probably Ramirez and Funderburk too. Sands, Topa and Tonkin could fill some low-pressure relief innings, but it’s not like they’re starting careers and have room for improvement. The only “find” among the newcomers is Thomas Hatch, who is willing to throw strikes where all the others prefer to nibble. Bailey Ober, once the most reliable of the starters, has lost whatever his magic was. Matthews, Festa and Woods-Richardson, the next generation, can’t seem to stay healthy enough or consistent enough to be counted on, although that’s what the Twins will do. Nabbing a successful pitcher in the free agent market is the hardest thing to do, and the Twins have the track record to prove it.
Things are not much rosier on the offensive side. Let’s say Luke Keaschall improves his defense and continues to be the Twins best hitter. We can hope, but we’re discouraged by so many recent examples of Twins who have never lived up to their rookie promise: Sano, Miranda, Julien and Lewis come to mind. It’s pretty clear that Wallner and Larnach will never rise above being streaky, below-average corner outfielders. Roden and Outman, acquired in Black Thursday trades, rank a notch below. Brooks Lee at short makes you realize how good Correa’s arm was and makes you hope the Twins #1 draft pick this year gets to the Bigs sooner than later. The Twins don’t even have a backup catcher to critique. The only bright spots I see are Jeffers, who is putting up good numbers for a catcher, and Kody Clemens, who has more big hits than any other Twin and is performing well above anyone’s expectations. I can see him holding down the utility spot on the roster next year. Buxton is playing more and putting up bigger numbers than in recent past years, but like every other Twin, except perhaps Keaschall, he can’t be counted on to even put the ball in play in a clutch situation. The other teams that are regularly beating the Twins have that in common: they more consistently put the ball in play, and lots of times that leads to good things happening.
I’ll revisit this picture in a month, when the sample size will be bigger. I don’t, however, expect it to be any better.

August 10: Every spring training I watch the box scores, looking for little-known players who surprise. This year I was enamored with the statistics of two Minor Leaguers: Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsay. Could either add a surprise spark to a roster of mostly well known average players? Gasper made the Opening Day roster but didn’t last long. Keirsay has spent a fair amount of time in Minneapolis, as injuries sidelined Buxton and Wallner for stretches. Based on what I’ve seen since, neither belongs in the Majors. Gasper looks clueless with the bat, although he has taken some valuable walks. He caught his first game today and didn’t embarrass himself, except when the Royals stole second base. With Christian Vaszquez’s days as a Twin numbered, it appears that acquiring a veteran backup catcher should be the Twins’ offseason priority. As for Keirsay, his value was as a pinch-runner, but the new look Twins appear both to be faster and overstocked with outfielders. I suspect his window has closed. And once again I’ve learned the lesson that spring training statistics don’t matter.

August 10: There are a number of sensational rookies shaking up rosters around the Majors, but the Twins’ Luke Keaschall looks second to none. He’s on a 12-game hitting streak to start his career, with 12 rbi to boot. Today, with the Twins looking bumbling and outclassed, he hit a two-out, two-run opposite-field home run in the 11th inning to beat the Royals, 5-3. How bad were the Twins? First, their parade of relief pitchers put batters on base every inning, and when they got outs they were line drives and long flies. Only the Royals’ 1-for-15 with RISP kept Minnesota in the game. The Twins’ first three runs came on a walk by the hapless Mickey Gasper and 31-year-old rookie Ryan Fitzgerald’s first Major League hit, a home run. Then behind 3-2, Austin Martin opened the 8th with a triple when the Royals rightfielder rashly dove for a line drive in front of him and let it run to the wall. The next two batters failed to produce, but Ryan Jeffers, the closest thing the Twins have to a clutch hitter, lined a single. In the 9th Kansas City loaded the bases but didn’t score; the Twins went out 1-2-3.  Michael Tonkin pitched two courageous extra innings to give the Twins two chances for a walkoff win, but both times they failed to advance the ghost runner. In the 10th, Baldelli curiously used Royce Lewis to pinch-run for Brooks Lee at second while letting the hapless Mickey Gasper try to advance the runner to third. Gasper made the worst attempts at bunting I’ve seen in the Majors (just as he had in a game last week), striking out. Ryan Fitzgerald then hit a long fly that would have won the game had Lewis been on third. Lewis failed to tag and move over to third, not that it eventually mattered, just looked bad. In the 11th, with Martin on second, Jeffers hit a long drive to rightfield, far enough to move the ghost runner to third with one out. Martin, however, hesitated on the basepaths before returning to second to tag up; starting late for third he was thrown out, seemingly a rally-killing doubleplay. Until with two outs, Keaschall ended it with his third hit of the game.

August 4: With a little distance, the Twins’ trades look a bit worse. The only player received in return who has played significant time, Alan Roden, has looked harmless at the plate, leading the team in strikeouts, and took a bad route in the outfield, turning an out into a double. As for the dump leading to a youth movement, yesterday’s win came via a 34-year-old starter and 35-year-old reliever. Meanwhile, we have to watch Eddie Julien try to play second and UCSB alum Noah Davis throw batting practice. Duran is looking like a monster in Philly; but bless him, he’ll have many more save opportunities there than he would have had in Minnesota. Whatever the Twins got for trading Willi Castro won’t replace what they should have had by signing him to a multi-year contract. And Kendry Rojas better be good eventually if Minnesota fans are to forgive the Twins for trading Louie Varland. As noted, Alan Roden isn’t likely to do it; and moreover, he’s a lefthanded-hitting corner outfielder, of which the Twins already have one too many.

August 1: Knowing nothing of what they got in return, I can confidently state that the Twins’ fire sale this week–trading away 10 players from the 26-man roster–was a disaster for their fan base in general and me in particular. They were hard to watch as is, but now it will be pure masochism. Even should the hitters get lucky and score some runs, who will protect a lead, with the five top relievers all gone. The ones who remain were used only in blow-out games, and when they weren’t the games quickly became blowouts. But let’s take a fond look back at the faces who are now gone:
Jhoan Duran, the Twins closer, is the biggest name and received the most promising return, partly because, like Griffin Jax, he is under team control for a few more years. As readers know, I was never confident in his closing ability, statistics aside. As someone pointed out, it will be interesting to see how he will hold up in Philadelphia, where stakes are higher and fans less forgiving. His sporadic control, inability to hold baserunners and nervous looks will come under scrutiny, without the dispensation he had in Minnesota of being the first to consistently throw over 100 mph and being “ours.”
A year ago Griffin Jax was the Twins’ best reliever, but he has slipped this year. Perhaps management saw this as a trend and thought they were selling high by getting a needed starting pitcher (Taj Bradley) in return.
The biggest surprise, and trade most questioned, was sending Louie Varland to the Blue Jays. He was the most used reliever on the Twins, he’s a native Minnesotan, he has only begun his career in relief, he would not be arbitration-eligible for five more years and is seemingly a player who could grow with the Twins long-term. Maybe he was necessary to secure another potential starter, but it’s unknown whether the trade target will be better than Varland, who is also a potential starter, as far as that goes.
Carlos Correa is the headline in the purge, but his situation is unique. He was given the Twins’ largest contract ever with the hope that he could produce championship-level baseball in Minnesota. Once that appeared out of reach–i.e., by June of this year–his Twins paycheck made no sense. If there is a positive byproduct of the Twins fire sale, this is it: it enabled them to get out from under Correa’s contract that would have impacted their payroll for the next three years. As it is, they are paying the Astros $30 million to take him off their hands. Between frequent injuries, diminished power, advancing age and his veteran’s lackadaisical lack of hustle, Correa was no longer someone to build the team around.
The logic behind trading free-agents-to-be once the playoffs are out of reach is clear; hence the remaining moves are easier to justify. Also, once the team signals its intention to punt on the season, it’s only decent to let your rentals ply their trade with teams playing for a championship. There’s always the chance to reacquire them at the end of the year if so inclined. Harrison Bader, Ty France and Danny Coulombe were this-year free agents intended to plug holes and they all performed beyond expectation. I could have made the argument for re-signing any or all of them at year end, unless and until younger alternatives appeared. If any of them netted a useful prospect in return, the Twins will come out ahead. Once the Twins lost series to the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals coming out of the All-Star break, their fates were sealed.
Willi Castro and Brock Stewart both had a year-longer history with the Twins than the above trio and were among the ten most valuable Twins. Stewart’s age and injury record are excuses for letting him go. The only excuse for trading Castro is the belief that he has played so well that the Twins would not have been able to re-sign him. Last year he was the Twins’ MVP and lone All-Star, and this year he continued playing all over the field.
The trade–more like a give-away–of Chris Paddack earlier in the week was the signal that the Twins would be sellers in the market. Other than that they had no one to replace him–calling up unheralded minor leaguer Pierson Ohl to take his next start, a predictable loss–Paddack’s departure was a largely neutral event: he pitched some strong games but just as many bad ones. He filled a spot in the rotation but was not in the plans for next year, when the Twins would count on a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Woods-Richardson, Matthews and Festa.
All that remains is to judge the value the Twins received, beyond substantially reducing their payroll. Of the 13 players the Twins received, maybe eight are considered Major League “prospects.” Of course, the Twins’ minor league system is littered with “prospects” who have never made the Big Leagues and never will. Then again, some of these prospects who previously failed have now been called up to fill the roster spots vacated in the purge, including Eddie Julien and Austin Martin. Clearly, the future is not now.

July 28: Waiting for what I expect to be a 4-3 loss to the BoSox I have two observations, one old, one new. The old is my frustration at Jhoan Duran’s complete inability to hold a baserunner on. In most save situations, the Twins seem willing to let any baserunner steal second, counting on Duran to strike out the batter or induce a harmless ground ball. Tonight, however, he entered the 9th in a tie game. He displayed his second weakness by walking the leadoff batter. To me, that’s a reliever’s cardinal sin. Boston’s pinch runner promptly stole both second and third base; the next batter singled him home to, essentially, decide the game. Oh, two other batters reached base and both immediately tried to steal. Luckily, Vasquez caught one. Every other pitcher works on holding the runner; why give Duran a pass?
My second thought is prompted by the Twins’ trade of starting pitcher Chris Paddack and, as an inexplicable throw-in, former starter now minor leaguer Randy Dobnak to division rival Detroit for a 19-year-old catcher/first baseman. This continues a trading deadline pattern of teams trading starters for minor league prospects–e.g. the Rockies giving the Yankees Ryan McMahon to the their new starting third baseman.  I get it that teams would rather get something for players approaching free agency when they would get nothing after the season (although I don’t understand the compensation pick rules). But surely there would be trading partners competing for someone like Paddack, who can hold down a rotation spot, and at least give a contending team pitching depth. Couldn’t the Twins get more than a single minor leaguer who might never make the team–or if he does it won’t be for three or four more years? Given the paucity of arms in the Twins’ farm system, I was hoping they could get at least two pitching prospects, not a part-time catcher.

July 21: Any thoughts that the Twins would turn around their season with the weak schedule following the All-Star break were quickly dashed by consecutive blowout losses to the Colorado Rockies, on pace to the worst record in modern history. As expected, the Twins won the third game behind their ace Joe Ryan, but they can only count on him every five days–and even then he could be facing Tarik Skubal. Chris Paddack, who has shown signs of competence, effectively ended the Twins’ season by giving up four runs to the first four Rockies hitters he faced coming out of the break. Normally reliable Brock Stewart lost the second game by giving up a two-out three run homer, which turned an initial 3-0 Minnesota lead into a 6-3 deficit. If the Twins hitters had more pluck or luck that might not have mattered, but they have been streaky, at best, all year, and it appears they will remain that way.
Now, the interest is in what moves the Twins will make before the end-of-month trading deadline. It would be foolhardy to give up value for a short-term asset in the hope of reaching this year’s playoffs. The question is, what could they get for a valuable piece, like Griffin Jax or, my preferred trade target, Jhoan Duran. Louie Varland seems ready to assume the closer role and Duran, despite good statistics, makes me nervous. Harrison Bader and Ty France, free-agents-to-be, are mentioned as trade bait, but it’s hard to envision much value coming in return. And I do like both of them, as well as Kody Clemens, among the marginal Twins who’ve made this year somewhat enjoyable.

July 17: Hooray for the two Twins All-Stars! Joe Ryan pitched a 1-2-3 4th inning with two strikeouts, looking as dominant as any AL hurler. Byron Buxton lined out to left then doubled to right, igniting the AL’s 9th-inning rally that tied the game, scoring the fifth run with a smile on his face. But someone please tell me: what was Aaron Boone doing, hitting Jonathan Aranda, with 11 home runs for the season, cleanup in the homer-off instead of Home Run Derby champion Cal Raleigh, with 38 dingers. That would have made a fun All Star finish a classic.

July 13: Against all my expectations, Byron Buxton has turned himself into a good hitter. He has always been an elite defender, although with the recent arrival of several sensational new centerfielders he is no longer nonpareil there. But in past years he has seemed vastly overpaid because 1) he has missed more games than he has played, due to a series of unrelated injuries, and 2) he inevitably strikes out when facing a good pitcher in any important situation. My least favorite moment from Twins games of the last decade has been watching Buxton trudge back to the dugout after striking out, looking over his shoulder–at what, home plate, the opposing pitcher? Never the kind of disappointment or anger at himself you sometimes see from others; more a look of bewilderment, as in ‘how could that happen?’ I’ll tell you how: you continually wave at breaking balls off the outside corner, except when you’re watching a fastball down the middle. Clark Griffith long ago told me that Buxton would never be a good Major League hitter because of some flaw in his swing, but I never knew exactly what that was.
This year, however, Buxton has 1) largely remained healthy, even eschewing the DH role he was accorded last year, and 2) developed a feel for the strike zone, taking walks and laying off the low, outside breaking balls. In the past, he punished mistakes, and he’s doing that again, regularly striking balls at over 100 mph. But he’s also hitting some good pitches by some good pitchers. In short, he has become a force at the top of the Twins lineup, and once he gets on base his speed is another weapon: so far he has stolen 18 bases without being thrown out.
All this is a lead-in to one of the most remarkable moments I’ve witnessed in a baseball game, which occurred in yesterday’s win over the Pirates. In his first at-bat Buxton beat out a routine grounder to shortstop! Next at-bat drove the ball over the centerfielder’s head and raced to a triple. His third time up he hit a ball to the left-center gap that might have been his second triple, except that the ball bounced into the stands for a ground-rule double. The announcers quickly noted that Buxton was 3/4 of the way to a “cycle,” with the hardest part, the triple, already in the books. With the Twins winning big, Buxton’s fourth at-bat came early, in the fifth inning. He lined a single to left–no cycle, but a not-bad 4-for-4 day at the plate. There would be one more chance, which came around in the seventh, with everyone hoping for the impossible: a home run on demand. Strike one. Strike two. Then a fastball or sinker at the bottom of the strike zone: Buxton swung, the ball flew out to centerfield, going, going, gone into the batter’s eye greenery, 15 feet over the farthest fence in the park. The first cycle in Target Field history.

July 6: Now that my hopes for a championship season, never high, are gone (although the AL title appears wide open for the taking by someone this year), I can enjoy Twins games for their own merits, not concerned with what a win or loss does to their standing. On that score, their series this weekend with Tampa Bay was quite fun. The opener was won by a walk-off homer by Harrison Bader after coming back from 3-1 down. The next game was even better: down 5-1, at which point I wrote the Twins off, they came back to a tie on a Royce Lewis line drive and a totally unexpected three-run homer by Kody Clemens. In the 9th, Buxton walked, went to third on Castro’s ground ball single to right and scored the winning run when Brooks Lee laid a bunt down the first base line on the first pitch he saw. The kind of small ball Twins fans have been asking for, in vain, for years. The Twins lost the final game, but only after a two-run pinch-hit home run by Bader, again, tied the score at 4. (The Rays had taken the 4-2 lead cheaply, on a pair of swinging bunts.) Reduced to using Justin Topa in the 10th, who hurt his cause with a throwing error on a bunt, the Twins fell 7-5. But it was a fun game.

July 1: The Twins reached the season’s halfway point with encouraging wins over division leaders Seattle and Detroit. Throw in the next game and the Twins could point to stellar starts by Ryan, Woods-Richardson and Festa, which gave hope that the pitching implosion earlier in the month was an aberration. Then, unfortunately, Bailey Ober continued his mysterious inability to do anything but throw gopher balls and a decent Chris Paddack start meant nothing when opposed by Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The hitting malaise prompted by Skubal  traveled with the team to Miami, where Ryan’s one-run outing was wasted. So, my faint glimmer of hope has faded, and I am reconciled to, at best, a .500 year for Minnesota.
That wouldn’t be the end of the world–everybody can be average; what bothers me is the lack of hope I see for the future. Watching Recap on mlb.tv each morning I am impressed with the young players almost every team has: Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourios, just to name players named “Jackson.” Who do the Twins have? St. Paul is full of “future Twins” who didn’t make it: Austin Martin, Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda. The bright lights of spring training that were given a shot–DeShawn Keirsay, Mickey Gasper–came and went without an impact. There is literally no one at Triple-A that I can’t wait to see. What about young Twins on the roster that could develop? Brooks Lee’s hitting has improved this year. If he can be made the regular second baseman he could turn into a solid cog. That depends largely on Royce Lewis’s ability to 1) stay healthy and 2) emerge from his almost year-long slump. In short, while other teams are getting better, or at least more interesting, what we see now for Minnesota is all we’re likely to get for some time to come. Larnach and Wallner are what they are, .250 streak hitters who will never rise above average. The Athletic had a great article with data showing that Correa left his reputation for clutch hitting in Houston; he has been one of the worst since coming to the Twins. My eyeball said that; statistics confirm it. Willi Castro, Ty France, Ryan Jeffers, Harrison Bader, even Byron Buxton are well into their careers and aren’t going to suddenly get better. The Twins do have good pitchers, and if Ober can figure something out the pitchers will keep them in most games. I only wish they had a better, or at least more interesting, offense.

June 24: An interesting counterpoint: yesterday Emilio Pagan closed out a Reds win over the Yankees; today Jhoan Duran singlehandedly lost a game to the Mariners. Like everyone else, I was happy to see Pagan leave the Twins, where he had lost several key winnable games in midseason, sabotaging their season, a year after he had excelled for the Orioles. Now Cincinnati has reclaimed him as their closer; although his statistics aren’t remarkable, he does have 18 saves (against 3 blown saves) and an excellent o.85 WHIP. Duran, who somehow was given the Reliever of the Month award in May, has been horrendous this month. At the moment, he is clearly the fourth best reliever for Minnesota, and you wonder how long Baldelli will continue him in the closer role. Earlier in the season Baldelli spread around the closing opportunities. That seems the best strategy again, although I’m not sure I’d trust Duran even in an earlier inning.
Tonight Varland, Jax and Stewart threw relatively stress-free innings, holding Seattle to a 5-5 stalemate. That left the 9th for Duran, and I was nervous from the first pitch. (It also begged the question: if Duran held and the game went into extra innings, who would pitch for Minnesota?) He got the first batter out on a scorching line drive that Brooks Lee caught with a dive.  With an 0-2 count on the next batter he spiked a breaking ball onto Polanco’s foot. A ground-ball single–a Duran specialty this year–put runners on the corners. Then he hit another batter. A long sacrifice fly basically decided the outcome. Duran got out of the inning with the bases still loaded, avoiding disaster. But with the Twins’ usual 9th-inning flailing the loss was assured. I have as little confidence in Duran as my closer as I had with Pagan back in the day.

June 22: When you get 18 hits and still lose, for a series sweep, you know you’re in trouble. Three quick observations: the Twins pitching staff, formerly the team’s strength, has fallen apart. Every starter has lost his most recent outing, and both David Festa and Simeon Woods-Richardson appear not ready, if they ever will be, for a Major League rotation. There hasn’t been a “quality start” in two weeks. The offense still lacks a clutch hitter. Even when the Twins are scoring runs, they are leaving many more on base, often loaded. Byron Buxton is on a home-run tear, but they come with no one on base and rarely in a clutch situation. Today, with the tying run on second in the 9th, Wallner popped up and Larnach struck out looking. Third, the defense is sloppy. Partly this may be due to Baldelli’s practice of giving players a different position to play each game. Who’s at second? Lee? Clemens? Castro? Another part may be the inevitable lack of confidence instilled by losing eight of nine games in a row. One last point: the Twins continue to play boring baseball. Other teams bunt runners over, pull off double steals and cause balks, put the ball in play, build rallies. There’s no sparkplug on the Twins: no Nick Punto or what’s-his-name “Tortuga.” Harrison Bader is about the only one offering excitement. Oh, well.

June 18: The only comforting thing about the Twins’ six-game losing streak is that the Yankees have also lost six straight. Plus, they were shut out three times in a row, ending a 30-inning scoreless streak tonight.

June 15: I’ve never been convinced that Jhoan Duran was the closer the Twins needed, despite the supposedly nasty “splinker” and 100+ fastball in his arsenal. It never looks like he knows where the ball is going, and his face conveys none of the confidence you want in your closer. Watching Josh Hader, Emmanuel Clase and a half-dozen of the other established closers you can see the difference. Yesterday and today he blew two great starts, by Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods-Richardson, just when the Twins needed a pick-me-up. Instead, they are now officially in free fall and will be a .500 team very soon. The first rule for a closer is, Don’t walk the leadoff batter in the 9th, but Duran just did that twice. It’s especially stressful when, problem two, you have no pickoff move or ability to hold the runner at first. I’ll bet the steal rate when Duran is pitching is between 95 and 100%. When the lead is two or three, you can wave that base off as unimportant, but it has become a habit that Duran can’t break when it’s important, as it was today. When Duran came up, his ability to throw 100+ was unusual and helped him get strikeouts. It’s no longer unusual, and his velocity has dropped to, more often, 99. In any case, hitters seem better able to handle his fastball, and in fact he now relies more on his breaking ball, which unfortunately he has trouble controlling. In fairness, he is often getting beat on ground balls that turn into hits. But still, they are turning into hits. Last year I would’ve preferred Griffin Jax as my closer. This year I’d use Louie Varland. But where, then, would you use Duran?

June 13: It turns out the Twins pitching staff was a finely tuned vehicle and once a wheel came off the whole thing collapses. The wheel in this case was Pablo Lopez; he was not always great, or as great as his reputation as the putative ace, but he took the ball every five days and delivered six or seven solid innings. Shortly after, Zebby Mathews, who hasn’t been great but has shown potential, went on the IL too. What this did was put more–too much–pressure on the remaining starters. When Simeon Woods-Richardson was called up and quickly imploded, the pressure built. Then formerly reliable Bailey Ober, who has arguably been the most consistent pitcher over the last year, mentioned a hip injury that may or may not have contributed to a loss of already low velocity. He was rocked by the formerly offense-challenged Rangers. Now tonight Chris Paddack, who has been excellent for more than a month, has just been socked for five runs in the first two innings by the Astros. When the Twins starters falter, Rocco brings in his second-line relievers: the result was a 16-4 and 16-3 loss to Texas, which has to do something to the team’s former confidence. Joe Ryan, the Twins’ best All-Star prospect, is the only starter left with an intact reputation. But even if he pitches well, there’s no guarantee his teammates will score enough runs behind him. The summer is suddenly looking awfully long.

June 6: The Twins come home after a 5-5 road trip, their longest for 2025, without significant change in the standings–they bounce back and forth with the Guardians for second in the AL East–but with some positive clarity in their roster and one big question mark. I didn’t mind the losses: they were well played games against tough opponents–Tampa Bay and Seattle in their parks–and the Twins showed an unusual comeback ability in tying all three games against the Mariners in the 9th inning. Kody Clemens and the returning Matt Wallner suddenly give manager Baldelli solid options all over the field, even at catcher where Christian Vasquez is showing some life. The Minor League fill-ins–DaShawn Keirsey, Ryan Fitzgerald, Mickey Gasper–are gone, and the promising Luke Keaschall is still on the horizon to enliven the dog days of August. Royce Lewis ended his horrendous 0-for-32 slump and is still far from the force he once was. I will say that he has hit more hard balls that were outs than was probable; but if his hard hits are all ground balls to short and line drives to left that won’t change fast enough.
On the pitching side, Joe Ryan has been an All-Star, Bailey Ober has pulled his weight and Chris Paddack has been a revelation. When Pablo Lopez was eating innings the Twins, regardless of the fifth starter, had a dominant pitching staff. The relievers, minus Jorge Alcala, put up strong numbers, often filling in four innings in close games. Duran, Jax, Stewart, Sands, Topa have been more or less reliable. Without Coulombe they are short a lefty, and they could use a long reliever if they could jettison Alcala. The big question is whether the Twins will survive losing Lopez for two months. Zebby Mathews is starting to grow into the fifth starter spot. David Festa was pitching even better than Mathews in Triple-A, but he was rocked when he took Lopez’s spot yesterday. One hopes it was an aberration, just as Mathews suffered in his debut. The bottom line: the Twins look competitive. We’ll see how they do when they play the Tigers and Yankees.

May 31: If last night’s game in Seattle was for real, then these are not your 2024 Twins. Earlier this year and for the last several years, a 9th-inning comeback was not in the Twins DNA. Going meekly was almost their trademark. But last night, down 6-3 with two outs against the league’s best closer, who had yet to be scored upon all year, they scored three times to tie the game. Willi Castro hitting his second home run of the night was surprise enough, but then Byron Buxton, usually a sure strikeout in the clutch, singled and stole second. Trevor Larnach singled him home with his third hit of the game. What made the comeback even more remarkable was that the Twins had come back from a 4-0 1st inning deficit to 4-3 only to see Cole Raleigh hit a two-run homer off Cole Sands in the 8th, the kind of deflating knockout punch that generally puts the Twins to sleep. Jhoan Duran threw a clean 9th and the Twins exploded for six runs in the 10th, with Correa, Buxton and Larnach each driving in two. Everyone had a good game except, another surprise, Kody Clemens, who had been carrying the Twins the last two weeks. As we know, momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher, but this result has to boost everyone’s confidence, which can only make the Twins play better. Now if Wallner returns and hits as well as he has on his rehab assignment, if Zebby Mathews builds on the six shutout innings he threw after the disastrous 1st, if Royce Lewis tries to hit up the middle or to right instead of rolling over and hitting ground balls to short (and if no one gets hurt)…

May 27: The Twins have reverted to their early-season formula of limited offense and shaky relief work, losing 7-2 in Tampa Bay thanks to Brock Stewart, Kody Funderburk and, more surprisingly, Trevor Larnach. The very inning he was shifted to leftfield from right, the Rays hit three long flies that resulted in four runs. Harrison Bader would have caught two, possibly all three. It felt like watching instant replay!
If that was the kind of thing I’d never seen before, there was an even odder moment when Baldelli challenged a Tampa Bay runner who went back to first on a pickoff attempt then scampered to second when the throw was bounced past the first baseman. It seems Baldelli contended that the runner had past first base, into foul territory, then reversed toward second without retouching the bag. Who knew such was required? Neither of the announcers had heard of such a rule. We all know that when a runner passes second base and has to return to first – e.g., when an outfielder makes a surprising catch – the runner has to retouch second. But why would such a rule apply to a runner that goes backward to first base? Perhaps I’ll learn more in the future.

May 22: The Twins’ 13-game win streak was undoubtedly as much an aberration as their 7-15 season start; so I will put both in the rear-view mirror and look at the 2025 season as starting now. With all the ups and downs, the Twins, Guardians and Royals have arrived at this point with roughly identical records, mostly accumulated by playing outside the division (also true for the Tigers, who have stunned the baseball savants by jumping out to the best record in the AL, a couple notches above their division rivals). As they start to have more games within the division we will see who is playoff-worthy and who will fade.
I went to Minneapolis to watch the series opener with the Guardians and unfortunately was rained out after three innings. The teams wound up splitting a doubleheader yesterday, with the rubber game postponed to later in the year. The bad news is that when the Guardians were behind 5-2 in the 9th they scored three times to tie before losing in the bottom of the inning; when the Twins were behind 5-1 in the nightcap they went meekly. So, although the teams ended up as they began, with the Twins a half-game up in the standings, the optics favored the visitors. Also troubling was the sudden reversion to bullpen weakness: after the phenomenal string of 19 scoreless relief innings, we’ve just seen Varland, Duran, Sands and Funderburk give up runs. The Twins top four starters remain the team’s main strength. Zebby Mathews was a disappointment as a replacement for Simeon Woods-Richardson, but we can still hope he will look as good as he did in spring training and at St. Paul earlier this year.
The most interesting development at this point in the Twins’ season is the role being played by players who were not on the roster, or even heard of, when the season began. Jonah Bride, Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, DeShawn Keirsay, Carson McCusker and Tk Richardson all came from nowhere to start games and currently fill roster spots that should belong to Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Eddie Julien and (until he recently returned) Willi Castro. (N.B. No pitchers in the bunch.) How this will shake out over the course of the year will be fun to see, and depend partially on injuries, but it’s safe to say that the Twins in September will be different from the Twins this week. Of the newcomers, Kody Clemens has already proven worthwhile and Keaschall appears to have the highest ceiling. If Baldelli can figure out how to integrate four second basemen into his regular rotation it could be an impressive roster. Again, as always, depending on Correa and Buxton.

May 11: A seven-game winning streak brought the Twins back to .500 for the year, something that seemed remote just a week ago. Credit the pitching: the starters have uniformly kept the game close and the relievers have held every lead and, more significantly, not imploded as so often happened earlier in the season. The return of Willi Castro and Royce Lewis has brought stability to the lineup, freeing us from Eddie Julien and Mickey Gasper. The only negative is that the Tigers, Guardians and Royals have won just as often over this period. Regardless, the Twins games have become fun to watch again.

May 5: Another data point in my admittedly random study of the Twins’ practice of routinely “bringing the infield in” when there is a runner on third with less than two outs:
The Red Sox got the first two men on in the second inning(!), behind 1-0. They successfully bunted(!) the runners over (a play the Twins scorn). The next batter hit a high chopper that bounced over the drawn-in shortstop’s head and two runs scored. Had the infield been in regular position, only one run (at most) would’ve scored and an out would have been recorded. My two takeaways: when there is a runner on second as well as third, the risk/reward ratio goes against bringing the infield in. Two, the second inning of a 1-0 game is too early to worry about a single run–i.e., the runner on third.
The previous few games highlighted another regular strategic mistake by the Twins, their automatic use of the “run-on-contact” play when they have a runner on third with less than two outs. When Buxton was the runner he scored, barely. When France and Jeffers were the runners, they were out by a mile, killing Twins’ rallies. The clear corollary: when a slow-to-average runner is on third, the old adage–wait to see if the ball gets through–should apply.  As for the Twins’ 2-1 series win at Fenway Park, it’s nice to see some life from the Twins offense–e.g, yesterday was the first game they have won after being behind in the 6th inning!–and the imminent return of Lewis and Castro will at least make them more interesting. The route to the playoffs, however, seems fairly well blocked by Detroit’s strong start and solid roster, not to mention that Cleveland is also in the way. Still, the games can be fun.

May 2: When the Twins won six of seven, admittedly against the weak opposition of White Sox and Angels, the season appeared to have some promise. Four straight losses, against the Guardians and now the Red Sox, have brought us back to what seems to be the reality of 2025: these Twins just aren’t very good. Yes, the starting pitching is solid–Ryan, Ober, Lopez, even Paddack are keeping the Twins in every game–but relief pitching and defense continue to show cracks almost every day. And finally, worst of all, the hitting is atrocious, led by the utter lack of a reliable clutch hitter. Buxton and Correa have the best recent averages, but both are prone to strike out amid rallies. Due to injuries, the Twins are playing journeyman Minor Leaguers–Mickey Gasper, Jonah Bride and Kody Clemens, to name names. Eddie Julien shouldn’t be starting either (and was the obvious goat tonight). One hopes that Royce Lewis and Willi Castro will soon return, at which point some or all of the players just named can be sent to St. Paul.

April 21: The Twins’ collapse alluded to in the previous post was deeper and more profound than anticipated. Being swept by an Atlanta team that was in last place in its division offers little hope for all-important upcoming series with the even more lowly  White Sox, but that’s all we’ve got. An interesting subplot is the instant success of Luke Keaschell, who was supposed to be a year or two away from the majors. Not only is he the Twins’ leading hitter after three games, his at bats are professional, he’s got good speed and a great body and hair. How they use him, or even whether they keep him, once Wallner returns will be telling. Both Wallner and Larnach are decent players, but neither shows signs of stardom, whereas Keaschell’s  ceiling is already much higher. And then there’s Harrison Bader, who has quickly become a fan favorite with his hustle and who, until Buxton hit a meaningless homer in yesterday’s 6-2 defeat, was leading the team with three home runs! Already, Bader had been spoken of as midseason trade potential, which Keaschell’s showing, if it continues, in the bigs or St. Paul, would make even more likely.

April 18: The Twins finally showed some life by taking a series, 2-1, from the NL-leading Mets. The starting pitching was excellent, but that hasn’t been the problem. I don’t think any starter gave up more than a run the last time through the rotation. Relievers have been mostly good, but with the starter generally leaving after five and Baldelli insistent on not using a reliever more than an inning at a time, it has meant that the Twins have to have clean outings from at least four separate relievers. If a reliever is on three out of four times, that means that there will be one slip-up per game. In the finale against the Mets, normally reliable Griffin Jax came in to protect a 3-0 lead in the 8th and gave up four hits and three runs. Duran and Sands pitched a scoreless 9th and 10th and the Twins walked it off, but it was harder than it should have been. As I watch the Twins playing the Braves tonight, they once again are turning over a three-run lead to the bullpen for four fraught innings. If the Twins hitters could add on late-inning runs I’d breathe more easily, but for some reason their offense is generally limited to early in the game.

PS: Hate to say “I told you so,” but the problems I just identified caused an excruciating loss. Baldelli pulled Paddack after five dominant innings. He didn’t let Varland or Coulombe go more than one inning. His third reliever, Jax again, gave up the 4-1 lead and his replacement, Sands, gave up two more, transposing a comfortable 4-1 win into a 6-4 loss when the Twins did nothing in their 9th. Once again, they scored four runs in the first four innings then went 1-for-16 the rest of the way. I want to check box scores tomorrow to see 1) how many managers let their relievers pitch more than one inning, and 2) if the Twins are last in the Majors in home runs.

April 14: One day after playing what manager and broadcasters called their best game of the year, a 5-1 win over Detroit, the 2025 Twins were back today, looking terrible in a 5-1 loss to the Mets, with three hits, 13 strikeouts and two errors. When a Twins pitcher airmailed an easy throw to first, allowing a run to score, the Mets broadcaster commented, “You come to a town where the team is 5-12 and you see why.” Indeed.

April 9: Keeping track, as promised, the Twins lost yesterday when Bobby Witt Jr. scored from third on a ground ball to a drawn-in infield. The strategy didn’t hurt, but neither did it help. As for the Twins’ play  over the last four games, their lack of hitting seems to be a permanent feature, not just the result of a slow start. They won one game with a six-run inning, but the bats were quiet for the other eight frames. Most disturbing was the rubber game with the Astros when the Twins got off to a 7-1 lead in four innings, which should have decided the day (and would have if the Twins had been the team on the short end). The Astros, still very professional, outscored the Twins 8-0 from there. Most disheartening to this fan is the Twins’ general inability to rally in the 8th and 9th innings, as well as any extras. In the Astros’ 10th, they started with a successful sacrifice bunt, then threw in a couple stolen bases–all plays foreign to the Twins–to score twice. When it came the Twins’ turn, their ghost runner never left second base. Some teams just consistently put the ball in play, which is at least fun to watch and often produces results. The Twins still bat Byron Buxton third or leadoff, where he struck out four times yesterday.

April 4: The dispiriting thing about the Twins’ Home Opener loss to Houston is not the 5-2 score or the failure of Joe Ryan, but how boring the game was. The Twins put together a fun first at bat: Wallner triple, Buxton infield single and stolen base, Larnach rbi single. The next eight innings – nada. Nothing to see here.
On defense, though, one topic for further discussion: with the scored tied, the Astros put runners on second and third, courtesy of a Ryan hit batter and balk. Although ony the fourth inning, the Twins played the infield in, as they do invariably. A ground ball just beyond Correa’s reach resulted in two runs and, essentially, the Houston victory. Had the infield not been in, the grounder most likely would have resulted in an inning-ending double play. For some time I have felt that the Twins are burnt by playing the infield in, but they must have analytics that show otherwise. I will try to note this year when the strategy is effective and when, as yesterday, it is counterproductive. I certainly think that when there is a runner on second as well as first, the damage to be done must outweigh the chance of preventing a run.

April 3: My low expectations dropped even further when the Twins went to Chicago and instead of having the horrendous White Sox cure their ills, they played terribly, two hits and 13 strikeouts and an ineffective Chris Paddack, and fell to last place, 0-4. On Tuesday, however, their luck turned, and an opposite field doink by Jose Miranda scored the runs for their first win. Then Wednesday everything clicked: Pablo Lopez looked the ace he’s supposed to be,Byron Buxton hit his first home and Carlos Correa collected his first two hits. The defense was sharp, Jhoan Duran threw a clean inning, and Harrison Bader emerged as an offensive force, hitting his third multi-run, albeit meaningless, home run. Miraculously, the Twins find themselves, despite a 2-4 record, in a five-way tie for first in the Central Division.

March 29: So much for the notion that the Twins might have the best bullpen in the league. Jorge Alcala looked like a Minor League call-up, as he did all last year, and Jhoan Duran, who had an ERA over 5.00 in non-save situations last year, started down that path again this year, unable to finish the inning he was assigned to keep him sharp. Louie Varland looked good for two hitters, then gave up the game-deciding hit. Griffin Jax, the only sure thing, gave up a home run in his inning yesterday. Maybe they will all try harder if they are given a lead to protect, but when will that happen? Maybe in the upcoming series with the White Sox. For now, the offense is as feeble as predicted. And the contrast with the Cardinals, who have exciting players who can run, play defense and make contact, is stark.

March 28: Two takeaways from Opening Day: Pablo Lopez secured his spot as a non-ace for the Twins. How this will be recognized once Opening Day is over and the rotation rotates I don’t know, but next year I will expect to see Bailey Ober or Joe Ryan open the season. The second disappointment is the 11 strikeouts for the Twins. I was hoping that their “make-contact” philosophy would cut down on double-digit strikeout games, but so far no results. (By contrast, the Cardinals had only 5 K’s against Lopez and several strikeout-dominant Twins relievers.)