Infield Playing In

With Phillies runners on second and third, one out, down 4-5 in the 8th inning, the Twins, as is their practice, brought the infield in for a potential play at the plate. Instead, the next batter hit a soft popup over first base, which a second baseman playing at normal depth probably would have caught.  Because he was “in,” however, the ball landed safely and the Phillies proceeded to score three runs en route to a 7-5 victory. I have no data to support my thesis, but my eyeball experience in watching Twins games in recent years has convinced me that “playing in” hurts more often than it helps.

Let’s break this down by first looking at the benefit of bringing the infielders closer to home. For this to succeed, the ball must be hit fairly hard directly at a fielder who then has to make an accurate throw home. If the runner on third is fast, the infielder will often hurry his throw, which not infrequently results in an off-target throw. Without being able to block the plate, the catcher has to pirouette to catch the throw then find the sliding runner. If the runner on third is slow, the infielder could probably throw him out on a hard-hit grounder without playing in. In the past, it was more common for teams to play only their corner infielders in, which offered the benefit of cutting off the run without the detriments I’m about to enumerate.

Even more common than the popup that falls is the soft line drive that clears the infield but would have been caught by a fielder in normal position. But the bigger issue is the ground ball that leaks through the infield because the infielder’s effective range has been reduced by some 20% (my rough estimate). If I had the numbers–and I’m sure they exist on some computer–we could compare the number of balls that become hits because the infield is in versus the number of runs saved, either by outs at the plate or runners staying on third, but I would add one more variable that tips the equation my way, I’m sure.

When there are runners on both third and second, playing in doesn’t just risk giving up a run, it can result in two runs scoring. If I play the infield back, there is not only the opportunity to catch the popup and line drive, there is a better chance of giving up only one run in the inning. The ground ball through a drawn-in infield that scores two runs is particularly demoralizing to me as a fan; I can only imagine what it does to the players, especially the pitcher who has induced what would normally be a ground-ball out. Of course, there are situations that override my statistical analysis: if the game is tied in the late innings and one run is likely to be decisive, it won’t matter if two score instead; so forget the odds and gamble that you’ll get a ground ball that goes right to one of your drawn-in infielders. But the Twins, so far as I can tell, aren’t differentiating by situation: they automatically bring the infield in and more often than not get burnt.