Twins ’26

April 29: The Twins might as well give up on the season if they can’t find a reliever – and I don’t know how you find one mid-year. I would suggest even converting a starter to reliever, if they had a surplus of starters: all their prospects are now in the Majors. Two games in a row against the visiting Mariners, the starters–Ryan and Bradley–have delivered quality starts, and the Twins were tied or ahead late in the game, only to see the M’s pour eight runs across in the 8th and 9th innings. Every reliever failed, although if you’re using Orze as your closer you know you’re in trouble. When he walks the first batter on four pitches it’s hard to even watch what follows. Very sad.

April 27: Good thing I acknowledged the Twins’ moment at the top of the league. Since then they have only won one game, and that was against the Mets, who have the worst record in the Bigs. Their starting rotation, which was their one strength, all got rocked, except for rookie Mick Abel, who went on the IL. Losing eight of nine after winning eight of nine is indicative either of a roller coaster of a season to come or the start of a long fall to the bottom.

April 22: The Star Tribune comment page is home to mostly Negative Nellies, who find fault even in Twins’ wins, and I know the feeling after watching the 9th inning of last night’s 5-3 win over the Mets. It should have been a joyous moment: the Twins came back, unusually, from a 3-0 deficit after having been no-hit for the first five innings; Buxton hit a mammoth two-run homer; Minnesota scored two 9th-inning runs; and the bullpen pitched four remarkably calm scoreless innings, including a 1-2-3 9th by Cole Sands. BUT. The lingering impression is of the Twins’ 9th after they were gifted two runs by three walks, a bunt and a Keaschall single that took a high hop over a drawn-in infield. That gave them the lead but it also gave them a bases-loaded, no-outs situation. I wasn’t looking for a grand slam, bases-clearing double or even a hit. How about a sac fly, or even a run-scoring double play, just to make that lead more comfortable? Instead, Lewis, Lee and Buxton all struck out swinging, without coming close to even hitting a baseball. In a clutch situation, someone’s got to do better.

April 19: The bloom is off the rose: the Twins not only dropped three games they should have won to the Reds, they lost  in a way that exposed weaknesses that will be hard to correct. The number one problem, which we knew existed from day one, was the lack of good relievers. Not just not having a closer, there isn’t a single reliable pitcher in the ‘pen. After three superb starts by Ryan, Bradley and Ober, the Twins were tied or leading in the late innings of each game, at which point the Cincinnati relievers gave up zero runs, while the Twins gave up nine. Charged with holding a 4-2 lead, Topa and Funderburk combined to give up one run, Orze gave up another, and Sands gave up the third. Today Shelton went with his new additions (as I would have), only to see Morris give up three runs and Acton another three. The fact that Acton’s three runs were all unearned goes to the second problem: poor defense, especially in the infield. Keaschall, Bell, Lee and today Gray all mishandled balls that led to Cincinnati runs. Lee will never be an above-average shortstop and will be replaced in a year or two by one of the Minor Leaguers on the way up. Bell is playing first just for variety; the Twins have lacked a long-term answer at first for many years. Third base will soon be reclaimed by Royce Lewis, although how much of an upgrade that will be remains to be seen. Keaschall can, and should, improve, unless his hitting doesn’t. The telling statistic from this weekend is that the Reds have won ALL their close games, while the Twins have mostly lost. Another interesting statistic: Byron Buxton has yet to get a hit with a runner in scoring position. This confirms my eyeball observation that he is murder on mistake pitches, but when a good pitcher is bearing down, he can easily be beat.

April 16: As the Twins are off today, I must acknowledge their remarkable position atop their division and boasting the best record in the American League. Only the Dodgers have more wins in the Majors. Even when they lost yesterday to the Red Sox, they scored four runs in the 9th while trailing 9-1, something that would never have happened last year. The season is young, but more than 10% old; still, how long can they keep this up? The most hopeful recent development is Mick Abel’s pitching: if he and Taj Bradley continue to give up one or no runs per start, the starting rotation will keep the Twins in enough games for the sporadic offense to win their fair share. The relief corps remains shaky, and the Twins’ recent run of wins hasn’t included many close games testing their closer-less model. Two new additions–Garrett Acton by trade and Andrew Morris by callup–provide a spark of hope. Anthony Banda has been the biggest disappointment, while everyone else has been serviceable, nothing more. By the way, remember David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who were both projected to augment the rotation last year? If either still has a future, that could provide some insurance for the inevitable injuries to come.
What has been most suprising is where the hitting has come from. (I won’t go into the below-average defense.) Austin Martin, Victor Caratini, Josh Bell, Tristan Gray–who was counting on them? Jeffers and Larnach are performing competently, as expected. Now if Buxton and Keaschall can get hot and stay hot, the Twins will remain fun to watch.

April 8: Last night’s 4-2 win over Detroit gave me three, maybe four, reasons for hope, and reasons to watch Twins games this year. One was the performance of Taj Bradley, who threw six-plus dominant innings for his third impressive outing this year. He is fun to watch. Two was the emergence of Luke Keaschall from his early slump. He drove in the winning runs in both victories over the Twins and gives every indication of being a reliable number-three hitter and fixture at second base for years to come. Three was the ABS system, which a whole new element of fun to the game. Last night Ryan Jeffers ended two innings by getting a called third strike, changing the game’s momentum and helping his pitcher. Jeffers is 8-for-12 on his challenges, well above league average. It’s also clear that only the catcher should make an ABS challenge. The Twins have hurt themselves several times already when a hitter, often Matt Wallner, has tried to get a called strike reversed, leaving the Twins catchers with no leverage the rest of the game. Four is a general observation, not particular to last night or this year: the best team in baseball will still win only two of three games; any game you watch could be that third one, unless it’s the Twins playing the Yankees.

March 30: Already I’ve settled into a different frame of mind watching the Twins: I hope they do well, but I’m not expecting a win. I analyze strengths and weaknesses, but if they lose, especially to the home team, it doesn’t ruin my day as it has in years past. That said, what has impressed so far is the starting rotation. Ryan was excellent, Bradley showed flashes of brilliance, Ober and Woods-Richardson performed competently. Only Mick Abel, in a planned relief role, wasn’t up to snuff. Maybe when he starts he will be better.
The Twins have opened 1-3 not due to their pitching–the relievers have held their own–but their anemic offense. When you’re fiddling your lineup to make sure Victor Caratini gets starts, you’re in trouble. Lewis and Wallner have homered, which masks their general futility at the plate. Buxton, as usual, has exciting moments, but is still an easy strike out in clutch situations. The Twins are still far from the “put-the-ball-in-play” style of hitting that at least makes teams fun to watch.

March 26: It may seem presumptuous to analyze the 2026 Minnesota Twins after watching Opening Day, but these points jumped out:
1. The Twins have three legitimate players: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers and Luke Keaschall. The rest are hangers-on or wannabes, players who couldn’t make the rosters of half the Major League teams.
2. Brooks Lee is not the long-term answer at shortstop. He’s an average (maybe) fielder and an insecure hitter. When he came to the plate with a chance to do damage, he was easily disposed of.
3. The Twins were bottom-three last year hitting with runners in scoring position, not a formula for success. Against the Orioles today they “threatened” in inning after inning, but hit into three doubleplays.
4. A corollary is their failure to move a runner on second with no outs over to third. No situational hitting.
5. Joe Ryan is a horse. He absolutely dominated the Orioles lineup and should be an All-Star again this year.
6. To say the Twins bullpen is a work in progress is an understatement. There is no closer, just a bunch of nibblers who’ll be asked to patch together the last three innings of every game. The 2-1 loss today was not their fault: Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa each gave up a seeing-eye single, hit more slowly than a half-dozen groundouts by the Twins. One solid single then scored the second run–the kind of clutch hit that eluded Minnesota (but see 6, below).
7. Austin Martin was notable last year for boneheaded plays, especially on the bases. Today he threw to the wrong base after catching a sacrifice fly, which allowed the eventual winning runner to advance to second. The run was charged to Topa, but Martin owned it.
8. Royce Lewis, I fear, will be a struggle again. The Twins won’t give up on him, given the potential he exhibited two years ago, but his home-run fixation will lead to more warning-track outs when he does make contact.
9. There will be plenty of room for a rookie or two to come over from St. Paul in a couple months and at least make the season more interesting. 10. I do like the pitch-call challenge with ABS. Twins batters had two valuable overturns. Maybe an area to excel.
Maybe tomorrow, or next week, someone will break out and make these observations look premature and foolish. But so far, I’m pinning all my hopes on the starting pitchers–Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Simeon Woods-Richardson–to keep the boys competitive.