Twins ’26

July 31: Tom Pohlad says the Twins will be “buyers” at trading deadline, while there is strong sentiment to “keep the guys together.” This raises the question: if you add someone, whom will you subtract without hurting the chemistry? While for most of the year it was obvious that the Twins needed to upgrade their relief corps, for the last month the relievers have been the stong suit of the team. Funderburk and Adams, who were shuttle regulars to St. Paul, have been solid. Newcomers Nance and Anderson have been revelations. Morris and Gomez have settled in as game-closers. Even Taylor Rogers has had recent success, although he makes me nervous. Any reliever the Twins acquire will be a gamble. The clearest need is for a starter: the Twins don’t have a regular fifth starter and each of the top four has been vulnerable to injury and bad days. That’s where I would look.  Oh, and an outfielder who can hit lefthanded pitching would be nice. And could play centerfield when Buxton is hurt. For sufficient consideration I would trade Bell, Roden or Martin but none of the three catchers. We shall see.

July 31: One side interest (as we approach trading deadline) is watching how former Twins are doing with their new teams and speculating whether Minnesota made a mistake in letting them go. Max Kepler, for one, always seemed to underperform, although for a few years the infield shift was part of the problem. Tired of waiting and not wanting to pay a veteran’s salary, the Twins cut ties. After a year of marginal success with the Phillies, Kepler has wound up in Arizona, where his .250 average isn’t sensational but much better than the Twins are getting this year from Matt Wallner (in the minors) and Alan Roden (hitting .189). Ty France hit and fielded well as the Twins’ rent-a-first-baseman last year and has continued to perform for the Padres, currently hitting .282. His place was taken by Josh Bell, whose play at first base has reduced him to DH. The ex-Twin I miss the most is Luis Arraez, who is on track to win a batting title with his fourth different team! Of course, the Twins received value – pitcher Pablo Lopez – so it’s not fair to mourn that loss. The most unequivocal mistake from last August’s purge was trading Louie Varland to Toronto, where he has become the American League’s top relief pitcher, with 23 saves so far. The fact that he is from Minnesota and was under team control for three more years adds to the hurt, as does the failure of Roden to produce in exchange. Maybe Kendry Rojas will develop into a solid starter, but it hasn’t happened yet. I wish nothing but the best for Jhoan Duran, who has become a star for the Phillies. I worried about his future with the Twins, and they seem to have replaced him with Yoendrys Gomez. The player who prompted this reflection, however, is Randy Dobnak. He was discarded like a used Kleenex but hung around the Twins’ system due to a five-year contract they improvidently gave him when he started a season strong several years ago. He was, I thought, simply a throw-in last year when the Twins sent him to Detroit with Chris Paddack for a catching prospect. He didn’t stick with the Tigers, nor with the Mariners but recently found a home in Kansas City. With a chance to pitch against Minnesota, Dobnak threw seven shutout innings for his first Major League win since 2021. Meanwhile, the Twins are scuffling to find a fifth starter.

July 28: The Twins came home after two good wins in Cleveland to face the team with the league’s worst record and a pitcher with the league’s fifth highest ERA. So what would you expect? Not a shutout loss, but that’s what transpired. Which is why “entertaining” is all I’m looking for this year.
After giving up a record six home runs, Joe Ryan was pushed back from his next start and was diagnosed with “arm fatigue.” We’ll see tomorrow if this is only a temporary setback. Almost invariably if a Twins pitcher has a bad outing he winds up on the IL. It happened notably with Bailey Ober earlier this year and today we see that Cole Sands is lost for the year after giving up five runs with only one out in his first appearance of the year. I had hopes for Sands but the wisest commenter on the Strib website (BallMom) had nothing good to say about him. In a way, he was a reminder of the old Twins bullpen, and I’m quite enjoying the bunch of no-names who have taken over.

July 23: So much of the speculation on whether the Twins will be buyers or sellers at the trading deadline misses an essential point. Major League baseball in general, and the Twins in particular, are in the entertainment business. Yes, it would be nice to create long-term value like a corporation would, but more important is the product you put on the field today. Give your fans something to root for, day in and day out, something to take their minds off the day’s problems for the summer. Trading Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach or even Josh Bell (the commonly bruited subjects) would not give the fans anyone they would root for, or enjoying watching, more. Quite the opposite, in fact: it would discourage interest, as most fans have become attached to this bunch that has way overachieved preseason expectations.
And what could the Twins reasonably expect to receive in return? They won’t get a starting pitcher as good as Ryan. It might be hard to even get a Major League-ready starter, and since the Twins already have a hole in their rotation, where would that leave them? The argument for trading Jeffers is he will be a free agent at year’s end, but that is also the reason he might not bring much in return: what will another team give up for only three months of his service? He is more expendable than Ryan because the Twins have two capable catchers in Caratini and Jackson. They already have Caratini signed for 2027 and they have to hold onto Jackson (who has the highest BA on the team) or lose him to waivers. Carrying three catchers is not ideal, but they each have value, and trading Jeffers for not much would send the wrong signal to players and fans alike. The argument for trading Larnach is he may be playing over his head and he is 30 so probably won’t be this good again. But he is their best hitter and best clutch hitter, as he showed in winning the last two games against Cleveland. He’s done everything asked of him without complaint (does he even have emotions?) and is integral to this team. Teams looking for prospects or power won’t be interested. Let’s keep him. Bell leads the team in rbi, but I’m willing to trade. He is strikeout-prone and adds no defense or speed. Trading him would open the DH spot for one of the extra catchers or Buxton on his regular days off. But again, it’s hard to see that you’d receive much more than a Minor Leaguer who might or might not ever make the team.
And what do the Twins need in a trade? Yes, a starting pitcher, but everyone needs that, so it’s unlikely Minnesota would find one. Relievers, as we’ve seen, are a different matter. Teams seem to be releasing them all the time, and the Twins have already fortified their ranks from that trough. In fact, it’s quite impressive how the Twins have patched together a respectable bullpen, as shown in the last two must-win victories against the Guardians in Cleveland. Yesterday Kody Funderburk and Travis Adams combined for three shutout innings, and Adams got credit for the win. Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gomez have come from nowhere to become legitimate 8th- and 9th-inning stoppers, and although they each gave up a meaningless run in yesterday’s 10-6 win, they held the fort when pitching in a 1-1 game today. The Twins then won when Nance, Rogers and Anderson, two of whom weren’t even on the team two weeks ago, shut out Cleveland and its ghost runner in three extra innings. If they’ve got enough to keep Eric Orze in St. Paul, with Cole Sands due to return, they might have enough to keep being entertaining. And that’s enough for me this year.

PS: Two footnotes from the Twins’ very surprising 3-1 win over the Guardians. Cleveland pitcher Gavin Williams was rightly lauded for throwing a rare “immaculate inning,” but some of the credit goes to the Minnesota hitters, as only two of Williams’s nine strikes were actually in the strike zone. Second, in the 12th inning with two outs and a runner stuck on second, Cleveland manager Steven Vogt chose to walk useless-in-the-clutch Royce Lewis to face Trevor Larnach, the Twins’ most dangerous hitter, because it provided a left-on-left matchup. Larnach’s subsequent game-winning single was less shocking than Vogt’s decision.

July 20: A retrospective note to mark what will likely be the high water mark for the 2026 Twins. After winning two of three from the Angels going into the All-Star break, their eighth series win out of nine, and beating the Cubs in that series opener, the Twins reached the .500 mark for the year, 49-49. Moreover, this tied them for the third wild card spot in the American League (with the Red Sox). At that point it seemed that they could be a respectable middle-of-the-road contender all year – not a team that would challenge the Dodgers or a half-dozen other more legitimate squads, but one that by splitting series could be fun to watch. And it clinched the argument that they shouldn’t sell any players come trading deadline.
Alas, in the next three games the Cubs and Guardians demolished, in succession, Bradley, Matthews and Ryan, who gave up 20 runs in the first four innings. These were the starters that were to keep the Twins competitive; if they can’t be relied on to keep a game close for five innings, there’s no cavalry for a rescue. Ober did his job, but that was it. Yes, the offense was bad, but it’s hard to be motivated when you’re down 8-0 before your second at bat. Maybe they can turn it around – and who cares about the third wild card spot? – but it’s looking more and more like the team I predicted coming out of spring training, not the one that has surprised everyone.

July 5: A 2-1 series win over the Yankees in New York is sweet enough as it is, but even better is what it said about the way the Twins are playing. They are scoring runs. Even when they lose it’s rarely due to lack of offense (see Bullpen stats). Gone are the days (from last year) of 10-14 strikeouts a game, which made the games almost unwatchable. (It seems the Twins have somewhere between the 3rd and 5th-lowest strikeout percentage in the Majors.) There are no more almost-automatic outs, meaning Lewis and Buxton are making contact at a much higher rate than they were last year and earlier this season. Clemons and Lee have surpassed their recent highs, Victor Caratini is superior to  recent backup catchers, and Josh Bell has gone from questionable to rbi leader. I have a personal fondness for Larnach’s calm demeanor and smooth swing; it’s rewarding to see him leading the team in hitting. Outside Buxton, the Twins don’t have a position player who was even in the field of All-Star voting, which makes their recent success so surprising. Yes, the Dodgers swept them, but the Twins played them almost even in two of the three losses. And that was the only series of the last nine that the Twins haven’t won.

June 16: Even though I’ve given up on the Twins’ season, I do feel a little better when they win, especially against playoff-eligible teams like the Cardinals and Rangers. It’s also fun to see them sorting out their roles. Most important they seem to have found a closer in Yoendrys Gomez, acquired from Tampa Bay in early May. He has made seven saves, generally without difficulty. In unheralded Mike Paredes they have found an inning-eater, and Shelton’s faith in Andrew Morris looks like it might pay off. It was a rash move to dump Simeon Woods-Richardson, who failed as a starter but had potential as a reliever, but if they can avoid using the last three guys in the pen in close games the relief staff could approach respectability. If Abel and Ober come back and pitch as they did early in the season, the staff could be formidable again.

The infield is also metamorphing with movable parts. Brooks Lee has improved his hitting and defense since moving to third base, where he has displaced Royce Lewis. Lewis has hit much better since returning from the minors, although a clutch two-run full-count single today followed two strikeouts on pitches in the dirt. The jury is still out. Luke Keaschall is getting the playing time at second, although he is often removed in the late innings for defensive purposes, which is not a good sign about his fielding. Ryan Kreidler and Tristan Gray are sharing shortstop, waiting to see who emerges, although Gray leads the league in errors-per-chance. If Kreidler keeps hitting I’ll bet he stays as the Twins wait for Kaelen Culpepper to earn a trip to the Majors. The movable piece is Kody Clemens, whose bat keeps him in the lineup against lefties as well as righties. He’s the Twins’ best first baseman, but he replaces Keaschall at second and can play the corner outfield. Having both Lewis and Clemens hitting means the Twins can keep Josh Bell in the DH slot.

Caratini and Jackson are holding down the catching until Jeffers returns. Both have hit as well or better than Sanchez did last year, and both have done well changing balls to ABS strikes, which has helped the pitchers not insignificantly. Maybe the Twins will creep toward a wild card spot over the next month, but that’s not an end in itself. As long as they are competitive and perhaps tickle .500 I will enjoy the summer.

June 7: The frustration in watching the Twins this year is the weakness of the bullpen. You can admire fine pitching by the starter–Joe Ryan yesterday, Conor Prielipp today–or a clutch hit–such as Orlando Arcia’s go-ahead homer in the 8th yesterday, but without someone to close out the win, it’s all for naught. A commenter yesterday noted that Louie Varland had registered his 10th save for the Blue Jays this year. You can easily imagine that these Twins could have had eight or ten more wins themselves if they hadn’t traded Varland away (in what is still looking like the worst of last year’s close-out deals). You’d hope to see some progress, or signs for the future, during a lost year like this one. So far, the Twins are paddling hard to tread water.

May 30: Well, that bubble burst. It wasn’t just that the White Sox embarrassed the Twins in winning three out of four (and almost the fourth). Chicago has seen ten rookies make their Major League debuts already this year, including the pitcher who one-hit the Twins in his first appearance and the Japanese import who leads the league in home runs. By comparison, the Twins newcomers–Gray, Kreidler, Arcia, Bell, Caratini–are all players who were considered dispensable by their former teams. Their ceiling would seem to be a level of temporary serviceability equal to Kody Clemens–performance that can keep you in some games (given the Twins’ pitching) but is never going to play for championships. Furthermore, the Twins farm system is fairly threadbare: a couple of redundant outfielders who can’t stay healthy, plus hopeful shortstop Kalen Culpepper. Oh, and maybe Royce Lewis can resurrect his career? One also wonders when watching the highlights shows and sees Ty France and Mickey Gasper why no one seems to get better while playing for Minnesota?

May 24: A three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway is making me take the ’26 Twins more seriously. I am still not expecting even winning the weak Central Division, and I can take, I hope, the losses as they come–especially when the opposition gets tougher. But what is intriguing is their new look: it’s not the same old faces (i.e., Wallner and Lewis, who have been sent down to the minors to “retool”). Who could have predicted an infield, like today’s, of Brooks Lee at 3rd, Ryan Kreidler at short, Oswald Arcia at 2d and Kody Clemens at 1st? Every team looks different at this point than it did coming out of spring training. For one extreme example: the Mets, with the second-highest payroll studded with veterans, started an all-rookie outfield this week.

The best of the surprises for Minnesota are in the pitching staff. Joe Ryan has been as good as hoped, which is about all that has played out that way. Bailey Ober has rebounded from a bad 2025 and has a 6-2 record, including the year’s best-pitched game: a two-hit shutout requiring only 89 pitches. Taj Bradley is 5-1 and looks like a potential ace. Conor Prielipp has shown scary potential, as have Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas. There have been injury scares all around, but there’s been enough depth to relegate Simeon Woods-Richardson to the bullpen, where he could actually help. Then the relievers, who were among the league’s worst for the season’s first quarter, have suddenly become effective. Part is due to the release of Justin Topa, who was supposed to be the anchor but just weighed things down. The Twins have continued to mix and match, pick up released merchandise and somehow cobble together three or four shutout innings each day. Key has been the turnaround of Anthony Banda and the milking of what little is left of Taylor Rogers. In any case, instead of blowing hard-won leads in the last two innings, the bullpen has recently managed to hang on by enough fingernails to secure some exciting wins. Meanwhile, manager Shelton keeps grooming rookie Andrew Morris to become a late-inning staple, even closer. It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s conceivable. For now, I’m sure the Twins lead the Majors in number of pitchers with saves.

If anything prevents the Twins from keeping up their recent run of good results it will be the loss for six weeks of Ryan Jeffers, who was not only their best middle-of-the-lineup clutch hitter but was excelling behind the plate, including in his ABS challenges. And Byron Buxton will have to keep contributing, despite his fragile condition. Clemens and Larnach can carry the offense only so far. But with their pitching, the Twins should continue to play interesting baseball for much of the summer.

April 29: The Twins might as well give up on the season if they can’t find a reliever – and I don’t know how you find one mid-year. I would suggest even converting a starter to reliever, if they had a surplus of starters: all their prospects are now in the Majors. Two games in a row against the visiting Mariners, the starters–Ryan and Bradley–have delivered quality starts, and the Twins were tied or ahead late in the game, only to see the M’s pour eight runs across in the 8th and 9th innings. Every reliever failed, although if you’re using Orze as your closer you know you’re in trouble. When he walks the first batter on four pitches it’s hard to even watch what follows. Very sad.

April 27: Good thing I acknowledged the Twins’ moment at the top of the league. Since then they have only won one game, and that was against the Mets, who have the worst record in the Bigs. Their starting rotation, which was their one strength, all got rocked, except for rookie Mick Abel, who went on the IL. Losing eight of nine after winning eight of nine is indicative either of a roller coaster of a season to come or the start of a long fall to the bottom.

April 22: The Star Tribune comment page is home to mostly Negative Nellies, who find fault even in Twins’ wins, and I know the feeling after watching the 9th inning of last night’s 5-3 win over the Mets. It should have been a joyous moment: the Twins came back, unusually, from a 3-0 deficit after having been no-hit for the first five innings; Buxton hit a mammoth two-run homer; Minnesota scored two 9th-inning runs; and the bullpen pitched four remarkably calm scoreless innings, including a 1-2-3 9th by Cole Sands. BUT. The lingering impression is of the Twins’ 9th after they were gifted two runs by three walks, a bunt and a Keaschall single that took a high hop over a drawn-in infield. That gave them the lead but it also gave them a bases-loaded, no-outs situation. I wasn’t looking for a grand slam, bases-clearing double or even a hit. How about a sac fly, or even a run-scoring double play, just to make that lead more comfortable? Instead, Lewis, Lee and Buxton all struck out swinging, without coming close to even hitting a baseball. In a clutch situation, someone’s got to do better.

April 19: The bloom is off the rose: the Twins not only dropped three games they should have won to the Reds, they lost  in a way that exposed weaknesses that will be hard to correct. The number one problem, which we knew existed from day one, was the lack of good relievers. Not just not having a closer, there isn’t a single reliable pitcher in the ‘pen. After three superb starts by Ryan, Bradley and Ober, the Twins were tied or leading in the late innings of each game, at which point the Cincinnati relievers gave up zero runs, while the Twins gave up nine. Charged with holding a 4-2 lead, Topa and Funderburk combined to give up one run, Orze gave up another, and Sands gave up the third. Today Shelton went with his new additions (as I would have), only to see Morris give up three runs and Acton another three. The fact that Acton’s three runs were all unearned goes to the second problem: poor defense, especially in the infield. Keaschall, Bell, Lee and today Gray all mishandled balls that led to Cincinnati runs. Lee will never be an above-average shortstop and will be replaced in a year or two by one of the Minor Leaguers on the way up. Bell is playing first just for variety; the Twins have lacked a long-term answer at first for many years. Third base will soon be reclaimed by Royce Lewis, although how much of an upgrade that will be remains to be seen. Keaschall can, and should, improve, unless his hitting doesn’t. The telling statistic from this weekend is that the Reds have won ALL their close games, while the Twins have mostly lost. Another interesting statistic: Byron Buxton has yet to get a hit with a runner in scoring position. This confirms my eyeball observation that he is murder on mistake pitches, but when a good pitcher is bearing down, he can easily be beat.

April 16: As the Twins are off today, I must acknowledge their remarkable position atop their division and boasting the best record in the American League. Only the Dodgers have more wins in the Majors. Even when they lost yesterday to the Red Sox, they scored four runs in the 9th while trailing 9-1, something that would never have happened last year. The season is young, but more than 10% old; still, how long can they keep this up? The most hopeful recent development is Mick Abel’s pitching: if he and Taj Bradley continue to give up one or no runs per start, the starting rotation will keep the Twins in enough games for the sporadic offense to win their fair share. The relief corps remains shaky, and the Twins’ recent run of wins hasn’t included many close games testing their closer-less model. Two new additions–Garrett Acton by trade and Andrew Morris by callup–provide a spark of hope. Anthony Banda has been the biggest disappointment, while everyone else has been serviceable, nothing more. By the way, remember David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who were both projected to augment the rotation last year? If either still has a future, that could provide some insurance for the inevitable injuries to come.
What has been most suprising is where the hitting has come from. (I won’t go into the below-average defense.) Austin Martin, Victor Caratini, Josh Bell, Tristan Gray–who was counting on them? Jeffers and Larnach are performing competently, as expected. Now if Buxton and Keaschall can get hot and stay hot, the Twins will remain fun to watch.

April 8: Last night’s 4-2 win over Detroit gave me three, maybe four, reasons for hope, and reasons to watch Twins games this year. One was the performance of Taj Bradley, who threw six-plus dominant innings for his third impressive outing this year. He is fun to watch. Two was the emergence of Luke Keaschall from his early slump. He drove in the winning runs in both victories over the Twins and gives every indication of being a reliable number-three hitter and fixture at second base for years to come. Three was the ABS system, which a whole new element of fun to the game. Last night Ryan Jeffers ended two innings by getting a called third strike, changing the game’s momentum and helping his pitcher. Jeffers is 8-for-12 on his challenges, well above league average. It’s also clear that only the catcher should make an ABS challenge. The Twins have hurt themselves several times already when a hitter, often Matt Wallner, has tried to get a called strike reversed, leaving the Twins catchers with no leverage the rest of the game. Four is a general observation, not particular to last night or this year: the best team in baseball will still win only two of three games; any game you watch could be that third one, unless it’s the Twins playing the Yankees.

March 30: Already I’ve settled into a different frame of mind watching the Twins: I hope they do well, but I’m not expecting a win. I analyze strengths and weaknesses, but if they lose, especially to the home team, it doesn’t ruin my day as it has in years past. That said, what has impressed so far is the starting rotation. Ryan was excellent, Bradley showed flashes of brilliance, Ober and Woods-Richardson performed competently. Only Mick Abel, in a planned relief role, wasn’t up to snuff. Maybe when he starts he will be better.
The Twins have opened 1-3 not due to their pitching–the relievers have held their own–but their anemic offense. When you’re fiddling your lineup to make sure Victor Caratini gets starts, you’re in trouble. Lewis and Wallner have homered, which masks their general futility at the plate. Buxton, as usual, has exciting moments, but is still an easy strike out in clutch situations. The Twins are still far from the “put-the-ball-in-play” style of hitting that at least makes teams fun to watch.

March 26: It may seem presumptuous to analyze the 2026 Minnesota Twins after watching Opening Day, but these points jumped out:
1. The Twins have three legitimate players: Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers and Luke Keaschall. The rest are hangers-on or wannabes, players who couldn’t make the rosters of half the Major League teams.
2. Brooks Lee is not the long-term answer at shortstop. He’s an average (maybe) fielder and an insecure hitter. When he came to the plate with a chance to do damage, he was easily disposed of.
3. The Twins were bottom-three last year hitting with runners in scoring position, not a formula for success. Against the Orioles today they “threatened” in inning after inning, but hit into three doubleplays.
4. A corollary is their failure to move a runner on second with no outs over to third. No situational hitting.
5. Joe Ryan is a horse. He absolutely dominated the Orioles lineup and should be an All-Star again this year.
6. To say the Twins bullpen is a work in progress is an understatement. There is no closer, just a bunch of nibblers who’ll be asked to patch together the last three innings of every game. The 2-1 loss today was not their fault: Kody Funderburk and Justin Topa each gave up a seeing-eye single, hit more slowly than a half-dozen groundouts by the Twins. One solid single then scored the second run–the kind of clutch hit that eluded Minnesota (but see 6, below).
7. Austin Martin was notable last year for boneheaded plays, especially on the bases. Today he threw to the wrong base after catching a sacrifice fly, which allowed the eventual winning runner to advance to second. The run was charged to Topa, but Martin owned it.
8. Royce Lewis, I fear, will be a struggle again. The Twins won’t give up on him, given the potential he exhibited two years ago, but his home-run fixation will lead to more warning-track outs when he does make contact.
9. There will be plenty of room for a rookie or two to come over from St. Paul in a couple months and at least make the season more interesting. 10. I do like the pitch-call challenge with ABS. Twins batters had two valuable overturns. Maybe an area to excel.
Maybe tomorrow, or next week, someone will break out and make these observations look premature and foolish. But so far, I’m pinning all my hopes on the starting pitchers–Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Simeon Woods-Richardson–to keep the boys competitive.