Timid Baserunning

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While Gardy’s conservative managing style seems to pay off, year after year, I admit I get frustrated at his unwillingness to let his faster players try to steal second more often. Lots of good things can happen on stolen base attempts: the pitcher can be slow to the plate, the pitch can be hard to handle, the catcher can drop the ball and, most often, the throw to second can be offline. Even the best catchers throw out only 33% of potential base stealers, and that statistic includes the easier play at third base.
In the Twins’ first loss to the Yankees this year, they were down, 4-3, in the 8th inning when Nishi got an infield single with one out. To score him from first with the tying run, the Twins would have needed two more singles against All-Star closer Rafael Soriano. The TV announcers expected him to run, but he didn’t, until the count was 3-2, at which point Mauer flied to left, and he stayed put during Morneau’s at bat.
Then in the next inning, against uber-closer Mariano Rivera, Jason Kubel hit a two-out single and Jason Repko was brought in to pinch-run. Now tell me, what were the odds, historically, of the next two batters, #s 8 and 9 in the order, getting hits off Rivera? Undoubtedly less than the odds that Repko would be safe at second on a steal, and perhaps even get to third on a bad throw, from which it would take only one hit to tie the game.
In a way, this is similar to the 4th-and-1 situation from your own 40-yard line in football. Analysis has shown clearly that the odds favor going for a first down instead of punting, but the conservative call is traditional and safe. No one will fault the coach for making that call. Similarly, no one will fault Gardy for not sending the runner with two outs in the ninth; whereas if Repko goes and is thrown out, the manager will be questioned. But it is still the smarter play.

Twins Preview

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I approach the 2011 season, opening tonight, with some trepidations, primarily because so many pundits (but not all) are picking the Twins to win their division and even beat the Yankees in the playoffs’ first round. This generous appraisal is based mainly on the fact that the Twins won the division last year (relatively easy – i.e., no playoff game required) and none of their players had particularly stellar seasons. There’s no one on the 25-man roster of whom it would be unrealistic to expect better things in 2011.
The problem is that in the past, when the Twins have been successful, it has generally been a surprise. They are good at sneaking past more star-laden teams, like the White Sox and Tigers, being overlooked and lagging behind until a late-season spurt gives them the division. When they are supposed to be good, they disappoint.
My other qualm is that, spending spring training in California, I have not seen a minute of actual player action. This, however, shouldn’t matter much, as countless years of experience have taught me that results in spring training don’t matter much. Further, as Jim Souhan points out in today’s Strib, the Twins’ recents victories have depended as much on mid-season additions or adjustments – viz., the Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty trade in 2005 – as on the opening-day starting lineup.
With those caveats in place, let me say why I expect nothing less than a banner year for the Minnesota Twins.
1. Starting pitching. The Twins have six solid starters, none dominant but each capable of the occasional gem and all able to keep their team “in the game.” I’ll bet the Twins rank very low on the list of teams involved in 10-8 games, and that’s because their pitchers rarely blow up. In fact, the one pitcher who can be unhittable, Francisco Liriano, is also in that regard the most problematic. We pretty much know what we will get from Baker, Blackburn, Pavano and Slowey. Duensing has looked promising in a limited role; if he blooms, the rotation could be very good. Best of all is the depth: if someone goes off track or gets hurt, as always happens, Slowey can slip right in, and Perkins and minor-leaguer Kyle Waldrop are right behind.
2. The Nishi effect. Keeping the same cast can make a team stale. Adding a high-energy newcomer can make everyone a little better, as the adjustment necessary creates a little edge. Tsuyoshi Nishioka sounds like a perfect Twin: excellent defense, good speed, handles the bat well – in short, everything Ron Gardenhire has been looking for in a #2 hitter the last several years. In some odd way, I also think his being Japanese will help cement the social fabric of the multi-ethnic Twins, divided fairly evenly among whites, blacks, Hispanics and Canadians.
3. Target Park. You have to think that the Twins will thrive even more in their home park, having gotten last year’s period of adjustment out of the way.
4. Delmon Young. Of all the Twins who could have a breakout year – Cuddyer, Kubel and Valencia foremost among them – Young is the one who seems most poised to deliver on the promise the Twins saw when they traded Matt Garza. I would still much rather see Young at DH than in left field, but that won’t happen so long as Jim Thome is around.
5. Last year’s underachievers. I’ve alluded to this before, but every Twin has had a better season in the majors than he did last year, and they are all still 30 or under. Morneau was hurt, Mauer’s power and average dropped, Span struggled, Punto was Punto and none of the bench players shone. It’s unreasonable to think everyone’s numbers will improve, but if only half do, and then if the Twins get production from a currently unidentified source, as well, the offense should be potent.
There are, to be fair, clouds on the horizon, too. To keep the net positive, I will list but four.
1. Alexi Casilla. Shortstop is the key to the defensive arch, the captain who has to take charge of the infield. With a rookie and an almost-rookie on each side of him, Casilla’s role has to be huge. In each of the last two seasons, he has been given every opportunity to win a starting job, and he has failed each time, mostly from inconsistency. With no one behind him who can both field and hit over .200, a faltering Casilla would seriously weaken the Twins.
2. Morneau and Mauer. They say he is back from his concussion, but Morneau was handled gingerly in spring training and his hitting was dismal. Morneau is a streak hitter, with a fine line between power and strikeout. If he doesn’t regain confidence quickly, he could become a black hole in the middle of the lineup. (Personally, I would relieve some pressue by batting Young cleanup and dropping Morneau to fifth, which would also set up a left-right-left lineup through the order.) Mauer is hardly fragile, but he plays with a bad knee at a physically demanding position and the Twins no longer have Mike Redmond, or even Jose Morales, behind him
3. Joe Nathan. For the same reason, loyalty, that Gardy will bat Morneau in the fourth spot, he has anointed Nathan his closer, even though he missed all of last year and the Twins acquired Matt Capps to replace him. Nathan made me nervous when he was healthy, and I expect less this year. Nor was Capps a sure thing. On the loyalty point (or, said another way, Gardenhire is loath to mix things up), I worry that Gardy will stick with Jim Thome when age finally catches up to him.
4. Middle relief. This is low on my list, even though others regularly bemoan the loss of Guerrier, Crain, Rauch, Fuentes, Neshek, et al. Seriously, how comfortable did anyone feel with Crain on the mound? How many disappointing home runs did the over-relied-on Guerrier surrender? How long were we holding our breath with Rauch as the closer? I’m not saying the new guys can’t be worse; it’s just that there’s no reason to believe that a middle bullpen of Slowey, Perkins, Mijares and Capps can’t be as good.
Finally, one neutral factor to consider:
The surprise star. Every baseball season produces a game-changing talent that no one thought much about this time of year, along the lines of Josh Hamilton, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, or Buster Posey. Should such a star emerge for the Tigers or White Sox, the Twins’ chances would correspondingly diminish. But then again, should such a one come to pass in Minneapolis – say, from among Danny Valencia, Dusty Hughes, Kyle Waldrop, or Luke Hughes – the Twins could be unstoppable.

The Twins – Postseason and Beyond

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After a surprisingly successful 94-win season in 2010, the Minnesota Twins will be facing their nemesis and mine, the New York Yankees, in the AL Division Series in two days. Just as sportswriters have to vote on player awards before the postseason begins, I should memorialize my thoughts on the state of the Twins as they conclude this campaign and transition into the future.

First, an admission of error. I pronounced in June that the Twins would go “as far as Justin Morneau takes them.” As it happened, Morneau, enjoying the best year of his career, suffered a concussion before the All-Star Game and never played again, yet the Twins played their best ball without him. On the other hand, I also identified Jon Rauch as, at best, a stopgap closer. The Twins apparently agreed, for they picked up Brian Fuentes and Matt Capps and relegated Rauch to 7th-inning duty.

Strengths and Weaknesses. The Twins’ strengths are 1) relief pitching, 2) depth of starting pitching, 3) team defense, and 4) a balanced offense. What they lack: 1) a #1 starter, 2) home run power, 3) speed, and 4) depth at catcher and in the outfield. Losing Joe Nathan for the year was a blow, but it spurred the Twins to add personnel that resulted in a stronger bullpen than if Nathan were still around. Randy Flores was a complete bust, and we need never hear his name again. But Matt Capps, acquired from Washington, seems the equal of Nathan, and he is several years younger. The real coup, however, was then adding Brian Fuentes (why did the Angels let him go? Why did the White Sox miss him on waivers?). Not only is he an experienced closer who is lefthanded and can shut teams down in the 8th inning, his presence freed up Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain for the 7th or earlier, where they seem to be more effective. Throw in Jose Mijares, who can be unhittable for lefthanded batters when he isn’t wild and Gardy has all the pieces for the relief ballet he likes to dance.

There is a certain sameness to Blackburn, Baker and Slowey, all young righthanded middle-of-the-rotation type guys, who can be alternately lights-out or bombed. I love watching them when they’re on, but whether we’ll ever see more than a 15-win year from any of them is an open question. Carl Pavano was the Twins’ ace this year, and despite some subpar outings in September, he is the best bet to hold the Yankees to two runs when he pitches. Whether that will produce a win is the issue. Liriano has a devastating slider, and when he can spot his fastball he is a strikeout machine. He is, however, erratic and more prone to emotion than the righthanders, and I don’t like his chances against C.C.Sabathia, even at home. Brian Duensing has done remarkably well, given his lack of pedigree and experience, and if he continues to improve can be a cornerstone for years to come. You will note that these names add up to six, and since a team generally needs only five starters, that means one will sit out – for the ALDS it seems to be Baker, an erstwhile Opening Day starter. Also in the wings is Glen Perkins, who has been an effective starter in the past and is still young. Does that mean the Twins needn’t resign free agent Pavano, or should trade a starter for a more pressing need, like an outfielder, or backup catcher? Given the fact that someone is always hurt, it may be more necessity than luxury to have someone in reserve. But if Pavano demands a long-term deal, or someone offers something good for Perkins, I would let them go.

Defense has been a hallmark of the Twins in recent years, and for most of this year the Twins had a ridiculously low number of errors. All the same, there are no obvious Gold Glovers on the team (if Mauer wins one, it will be for his hitting), Cuddyer was merely an adequate replacement for Morneau at first, Young is well below average in leftfield and Kubel is competent but not fast in right. If Morneau comes back next year, Cuddyer can return to right, which leaves left as the problem spot. If the Twins can add one player for next year, it should be a speedy leftfielder, who can occasionally spell Span in center. That would allow Young and Kubel to form a powerful left-right DH tandem and allow them to give Span, Cuddyer and even Morneau the occasional rest they could have used this season.

The infield epitomizes the Twins’ offensive balance, now that rookie Danny Valencia is a fixture at third (what an arm!). Hudson, Valencia and, to a lesser degree, Hardy, Punto and Casilla all contributed big games without overpowering anyone. What will become of the middle infield next year? I was frankly surprised that both Hudson and Hardy worked out as well as they did, but I’m not sure Hardy did enough to lay any longterm claim to the shortstop position. If Casilla were slightly less flashy, I would take him over Hardy. I would certainly rather have him at bat in the 9th inning with the game on the line. Trevor Plouffe seems to be rising through the minors. If he is the answer at short, then Casilla can play second, with Punto in his usual super-reserve role and the Twins would have an exciting, affordable infield for several years to come.

I’ve addressed outfield depth above – Jason Repko has been a fine fill-in, but is offensively challenged – which leaves the gap at backup catcher. Joe Mauer, for one reason or another, is unlikely to catch more than 110 games a year, so this is a serious need. Drew Butera is good behind the plate, but a black hole at it. I was counting on Jose Morales to be an upgrade on Mike Redmond, but for some reason Gardy finds him defensively deficient. It may be easier to improve Morales’s skills than to find anyone better via trade.

Home run power raises some interesting points about Delmon Young. He doubled his output from last year, and his 21 homers placed him behind only Jim Thome’s 25 on the Twins’ meager list. (The Blue Jays, by contrast, had seven players with 21 or more homers, led by Jose Bautista’s 54!) The Twins thought they were getting a power hitter when they traded Matt Garza to the Rays for Young, but it has taken three years for even his potential to show up. There is no chance the Twins will find another home-run hitter for next year. Valencia showed some power and could help. Morneau’s return to health would provide the biggest boost, and if Mauer could add just a tad more oomph, his warning-track drives would bring back his numbers of a year ago. If Bautista can go from 18 to 54 in one year, maybe the Twins’ best hope is for a similarly miraculous burst from, say, Cuddyer. What I wanted to say about Delmon Young, though, is this: for two years, we thought the Rays had gotten the better of that trade: Jason Bartlett has lasted much longer at shortstop in Tampa than Brendan Harris has in Minnesota, but they were the sideshow. Garza’s success on the mound, including in postseason, underlined Young’s underachievements before this year. But as we’ve just seen, the Twins have much greater need for power hitting than for pitching. Garza, this year, is not markedly better than any of the six Twins starters; they simply don’t need him. Young, on the other hand, led the Twins in rbi’s and is an immensely better hitter than anyone the Twins could replace him with in the outfield – see, e.g., Repko, above. So this trade should probably eventually go down as a win-win for both sides.

Finally, the above analysis omits this year’s principal DH, Jim Thome. Will he return? At one point he said, or implied, that if the Twins win the World Series, he could go out on top. Let’s hope that happens.

Twins-Yankees

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The air went out of the Twins tonight – and I hope it was just for one game, not the whole season – when that least-admirable of Yankees, Alex Rodriguez, turned a painfully wrought 4-3 Twins edge into a 7-4 Yankee pounding with one swing of his bat. One must question why Ron Gardenhire brought in Matt Guerrier to face A-Rod with the bases loaded, even though Rodriguez was batting .750 against Guerrier, including three homers in only eight times at bat. But then we all know that Gardy is strictly a by-the-(obsolete)book manager, who plays the right-against-right “percentages,” just as Yankee manager Joe Girardi brought in lefthander Damaso Marte the same inning to face Joe Mauer, even though Mauer’s average against lefties is about 150 points higher than against righties. Mauer proceeded to drive in the tying run, then left Justin Morneau drove in Mauer to give the Twins their shortlived lead.
I feel sorry for Scott Baker, who left the game with the lead but will have the loss on his record, but even worse for Brian Duensing, my current favorite Twin pitcher. Brought in to relieve Baker with men on second and third and no outs, Duensing retired the dangerous Brett Gardner on a popup, then was told to intentionally walk Mark Texeira before giving way to Guerrier. Of the four runs Guerrier surrendered on the Rodriguez slam, two go against Baker’s ledger and Duensing is charged with one run in one-third inning pitched, seriously damaging his ERA even though he did absolutely everything asked of him.
The Twins’ TV announcers were noticeably deflated, and the players seemed to merely go through the motions in their final two at-bats. The damn Yankees, whom the Twins haven’t defeated in years, had done it again, and what is more depressing is that Baker pitched a good game, Kubel broke out of his slump, and the two big men, Mauer and Morneau, came through with big at bats. And still, it wasn’t enough.

Twins Get Swept

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When one team is 0-10 for the year against another, it is pretty safe to say that that second team, in this case the Yankees, is better than the first, in this case the Twins; so it is not really worth harping on a) the Twins’ fatigue in Game One; b) the ump’s bad call on Mauer’s ‘double’ (the worst call I’ve ever seen in the Majors) in Game Two; or c) Punto’s baserunning gaffe in Game Three. As Mike Lupica opined on Sunday morning, the Yankees would still have found a way to win these games. They not only have a decided edge in talent, they have a not unrelated psychological edge that will only dissipate once the Twins win a series against them.
Nevertheless, the ALDS just concluded was instructive in pinpointing the gaps between these Twins and a championship-caliber squad. The most obvious is the closer. The Twins would have won Game Two if Joe Nathan hadn’t surrendered a two-run homer to A-Rod on a fastball right down the middle, and they would have had a slight chance in Game Three if he hadn’t given up hits to the first two batters he faced in that ninth inning. Nathan has great save stats, but I’ll bet that less than half are what I would call ‘quality’ saves (see The Save). His huffing and nervous mannerisms make me nervous and make me admire, all the more, Mariano Rivera, who comes in and calmly throws strikes. Fuentes of the Angels, the Majors’ saves-leader, inspires similar confidence. But we all know that the Twins are lucky to even have Nathan, and an upgrade in this area is not foreseeable.
Partly that is due to the shortcomings of the relief staff leading up to him. I had high hopes for Pat Neshek two years ago, but his effectiveness after Tommy John surgery will be a question. Jose Mijares looked like a stopper mid-year, but he got, literally, no one out the last two weeks and looked lost on the mound. Matt Guerrier is serviceable, no more, and I hope we can keep Jon Rauch; but the end of the game is no longer the lock is used to be when the Twins had a lead after seven.
Cuddyer and Span blossomed into front-line players – I could even see them cracking the Yankees lineup. I have no doubt that we will see another season of Punto, Tolbert and Cabrera in the middle infield. Morneau will be back at first, hopefully with more consistency; and despite his being overmatched this last week, I think Jose Morales will be an upgrade on Mike Redmond as backup catcher.
If Delmon Young continues to improve, which is possible, he can contribute. A platoon with Jason Kubel would limit the defensive liabilities of both. If we keep Pavano, the pitching is set: Slowey, Baker, Pavano, Duensing, Blackburn is a solid five, without even considering Perkins, Liriano or Bonser. That leaves holes, big holes, at third base and DH, both places where power is needed. As the playoffs with the Yankees showed, three singles is not as good as one home run.
Unfortunately, the Twins will have to spend all their money on retaining Mauer, not to mention Pavano and Cabrera, and it is not likely they can get a third baseman in trade for, say, Carlos Gomez and Bonser (throw in Liriano, too). Still, this team showed over the last month what it can do when it is inspired. If it remembers and plays at that level for the whole summer in the new ballpark, 2010 could be fun, indeed. We might even beat the Yankees.

Twins Win

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By coincidence or not, the Twins began their improbable 17-4 stretch run the same day Justin Morneau went out for the season and I posted my negative assessment of their play to-date (see Twins at the Far Turn). Since no one read my posting, it’s likely that Morneau’s absence had the greater impact, in an addition-by-subtraction way. First, Morneau’s injured presence in the middle of the lineup was a kind of black hole, sucking life from Twins’ rallies. Second, removing the anointed rbi-man prompted others, notably Cuddyer and Kubel, to expand their roles. Finally, it provided a day-to-day consistency to the Twins lineup that paid off with the new, improved Delmon Young a fixture in left.
But as Gardy says, it all comes down to pitching, and this is where the Twins of the second half far exceeded the team of the first. Here, the biggest change was addition-by-addition. Jon Rauch suddenly gave Gardy a middle-to-late-inning righthander he could insert with confidence to back up starters who were consistently good for five or six innings, then faltered. Rauch was a clear notch above the erratic Crain and Keppel – and their performance improved under less pressure, as well.
One more change: when injury-prone Joe Crede finally went down for good, Gardy threw his lot in with Matt Tolbert, the sparkplug-type player he prefers, after bouncing the position around among Crede, Harris and Buscher for so long. And I shouldn’t forget the midseason pickup of Orlando Cabrera, who solved the first-half quandary of whom to bat second. The result: down the stretch, the Twins, for the first time in 2009, had a set lineup, and the pitchers had an established pecking order.
But still, they had a lot of ground to make up, and they couldn’t have done it without the help of the other teams in the division: the Royals and the White Sox knocked down the Tigers, and the Tigers and White Sox generally stumbled. But even when the opposition didn’t falter, the Twins excelled. Most notable was Joe Mauer’s hit against Zack Greinke on Saturday, breaking up a scoreless tie in one of the tauter, better-played games I saw all year. Even more crowd-pleasing was Cuddyer’s game-winning home run two innings later. Some of the other wins in the final week were messier; but all was rescued by the one-game playoff against the Tigers, one of the best games outside a World Series that anyone has seen.
First, the evenness of the matchup set the stage for the titanic struggle. Both teams, of course, had identical records. While the Twins held an 11-7 season edge and resulting home-field advantage, the Tigers had been in first place since May. The Twins hadn’t played particularly well most of the year and few of their fans even felt the team deserved a spot in the playoffs. Conversely, Detroit is going through such tough times as a city, how could you not root for some psychic satisfaction for their citizens? But once the game began, all that mattered was my feeling for the Twins.
The game itself is amply documented elsewhere. All I will mention are the pivotal moments that particularly resonated for me. First, almost more than the team, I wanted Mauer to win his batting title on up note. Neither of his hits were crucial (typical for the year, the Greinke at-bat aside), but by going 2-for-4 he registered the highest batting average for a catcher, ever – no small achievement. Punto and Tolbert, remnant “piranhas,” performed well: Tolbert scored a run with his baserunning and drove in the tying run in the 10th; Punto had a hit, a walk, almost drove in the winning run with his line-out to left and made a game-saving defensive play. In fact, his effort on Inge’s bounder up the middle contrasted nicely with Polanco’s inability to reach Tolbert’s harder shot to the same spot. Guerrier gave up a homer to the first batter he faced – how often have we seen that? – and Nathan turned in yet another gutsy, but dicey, save-type appearance: after allowing two hits, he escapes when a hard-hit line drive becomes a double play. After using up its best pitchers in the first 9, the Twins have to survive extra innings on the arms of Crain, Mahay and Keppel. Keppel gets his first major-league win, but not without major luck: with the bases loaded, the umpire mistakenly rules that Brandon Inge has not been hit by a pitch, then Laird strikes out swinging on a low pitch that would have been ball four. But best of all, for the 2009 Twins, are the heroes of the 12th-inning run: Carlos Gomez, in as a defensive replacement for Kubel, hooks a single to left, and is driven home by a bouncer to right by Alexi Casilla, who came in as a pinch-runner for Brendan Harris, who was hit-by-a-pitch while batting for Jose Morales. Flukey? maybe. Great baseball? definitely!

Twins Report Card

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 As we reach the quarter-pole of a Twins season that I expect to be either frustrating or forgettable, here is a list of my Five Favorite Things about the team, so far:

1. Joe Mauer lining an outside strike over the shortstop’s head. His swing is so pure I don’t want to miss an at-bat. In his first month back, he has developed into a power hitter, which is great; but I don’t want him to lose that sweet stroke to left.

2. Jose Mijares pumping his fist after getting out of the eighth. It looks like the Twins have their go-to guy to get to Nathan (that’s another story), in place of the still sorely missed Pat Neshek. Mijares can throw his first two pitches in the dirt and still strike out the batter. He keeps his emotions in check until the inning ends, when he shows how pumped up he really is.

3. Denard Span coaxing a walk. What a professional hitter, and what a great lead-off example. He can take two pitches for strikes, then start fouling off good pitches and taking close ones, until suddenly it’s ball four and the Twins’ best base-stealing threat is on board.

4. Kevin Slowey painting the corners. Without overpowering stuff or any obvious strikeout pitch, he can still fan ten batters a game by consistently hitting his spots and subtly changing speeds. Unlike practically the rest of the staff, he never changes his demeanor – a cool customer and the Radke of the coming decade.

5. The Twins TV analysts breaking down the game. Perhaps emboldened by his success as pitching coach for the Netherlands, Bert Blyleven is quick to point out flaws in a Twins pitcher’s delivery; and Ron Coomer and Roy Smalley aren’t far behind in saying what’s being done right or wrong. They may be “homers,” but it almost seems their bigger allegiance is to the game, and how it should be played.

 

To round things out, how about some lowlights:

1. A middle defense that hits at or below .200. Punto and Tolbert are major disappointments, Gomez is a work-in-progress that may never get finished, and Casilla is in the minors for a reason. In place of the piranhas, this year we have the minnows.

2. An overrated Joe Nathan. Just when SI.com proclaimed him the best closer of recent years, Nathan started the Twins on their six-game skid by pitching terribly in the series-opening loss to the Yankees. Instead of inspiring confidence that the game is over when he comes in, Nathan makes me nervous with his fidgeting, sweating and sliders in the dirt. Relievers have notoriously short life spans. I fear Joe is near the end of his, but I wonder how long it will take Gardy to admit it.

3. Solo home runs. Sure, Morneau, Mauer, Kubel and Cuddyer are showing some pop, but how many of their blasts come with no one on or the game out of reach? Other than Mauer, these are all “mistake” hitters, who can usually be handled when the game is close and the pitcher is bearing down.

4. Crain and Ayala. These guys automatically give up a run per appearance. If it’s a close game, Gardy dare not use them, which means Guerrier gets worn out by August.

5. Delmon Young. Not a bad player, just not the power hitter the Twins were expecting when they gave up Matt Garza. He’s also their worst defensive player (I’d rather have Kubel in left) and doesn’t have the scrappy personality that makes the Twins fun to root for.