Twins in ’17

/0 Comments/in , /by

It is far better to enter the baseball season with no, or low, expectations than to have high expectations that are quickly dashed. SI was not alone in predicting that this year’s Twins would have the third-worst record in the AL and even the Minnesota writers were guarded, expressing doubts, especially, about the Twins’ pitching. So how much should we raise our hopes now that the Twins have swept the Royals in convincing fashion in the opening three-game series? Their starting pitching was good, their relief pitching excellent, defense flawless and late-inning clutch hitting impressive.
Granted, three games is a small sample and the season will be long, but there is room for optimism. For starters, much of athletic success depends upon confidence and the belief that you can and will win. When you start the season 0-9, as the Twins did last year, it is hard to get that losing mentality out of your minds. When losing is expected, it happens more often. By winning their first three games, the Twins have to be thinking, We can win, which in itself will breed success.
Now, as to the pitching. While there is no Clayton Kershaw on the staff, there are six pitchers who, to my mind, give the Twins a chance every day. Ervin Santana is a consummate professional who knows exactly what he’s doing. Hector Santiago gives us hits but limits damage and seems to win more than he should. Kyle Gibson can be very good or not, but when he’s good he’s a winner. It may take awhile to shake out the rest of the rotation, but Phil Hughes, Adelberto Mejia, Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios is a sufficient field to work with.
No one can ever predict how relievers will fare in a given season: there are always surprise stars and proven closers who falter. Confidence and the ability to throw strikes are important, and in the first three games all the relievers except the retread Craig Breslow showed potential.
On offense, the best news is the re-emergence of Miguel Sano as a hitter to be feared. He was wondrous in 2015 then disappointed horribly in 2016 and Strib writers questioned his offseason preparation. This winter, apparently, he buckled down and he has the look of a mainstay cleanup hitter. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler just have to show some progress from their first seasons to be more than acceptable as corner outfielders. The big surprises so far are new catcher Jason Castro and new shortstop Jorge Polanco. Castro, especially, was signed as a defensive upgrade but to date has been the star of the attack, walking six times and driving in go-ahead runs. Polanco is supposed to be a natural hitter, and if he slumps Eduardo Escobar can pick up any slack.
The two big question marks have, curiously, been batting 3rd and 4th in Paul Molitor’s lineup: Byron Buxton and Joe Mauer. Buxton is clearly not ready for Major League pitching, and one has to wonder (like Clark Griffith did) if he ever will be. He is extraordinary in centerfield, and putting him lower in the order may allow him to relax and find his stride. It’s exciting to see him run and I hope he will get over whatever hump is stopping him; but for now it is excruciating to see him always hitting with an 0-2 count and knowing that a swing and miss will follow. As for Mauer, how long will his reputation and huge salary protect him? He is no longer the hitter who can wait for the pitcher to throw two strikes before he starts to swing. Without power, without speed, and with defenses shifted to cover his inside-out stroke, there is so little margin for error. Will he comfortably slide down to the 6th hole, or 8th?
Anyway, these are the little dramas we will watch as they play out over the summer. It is the soap opera of personalities, not just the game itself, that makes baseball so intriguing. Who knows how the Vikings’ left guard is doing? And some games a receiver may hardly be thrown at. But we know, and can watch, every single baseball player and can judge him in isolation, live and die with every at bat.

Molitor’s Choice

/0 Comments/in /by

The Twins blogosphere is critical of owner Jim Pohlad’s announced intention to retain Paul Molitor as next year’s manager, regardless of the wishes of the next general manager, for whom Pohlad is currently searching. Any potential general manager worth his salt, the thinking goes, will want to install his own field manager, as that is the decision that will bear most directly on his own success or failure. The obvious answer, to my mind, is that owners change their “votes of confidence” with regularity and impunity, and there’s little reason to believe Jim Pohlad will provide an exception to this practice. There’s more reason to believe that Pohlad feels he must make this statement in order for Molitor to retain credibility with his players for the rest of this season, until a new GM is hired. Coaches and managers are notorious for resigning when they are not given contract extensions beyond one year for just this reason. Why would a player with today’s pampered ego and a guaranteed five-year contract pay attention to a manager in his lame-duck season?
The bigger question, which so far as I know has gone unanswered, is, why would Molitor want to come back and manage these Twins another year? For three weeks or so, they had one of the better records in the Majors and fielded a starting lineup (when Miguel Sano wasn’t playing) with no one hitting under .255. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco looked like legitimate Major Leaguers in their first half-seasons, Brian Dozier had regained his All-Star form and Ervin Santana pitched like the number one starter he was signed to be. There appeared to be hope for 2017. Then another collapse came. Kansas City and Detroit swept the Twins, easily, and the Blue Jays won tonight, 15-8. The Twins have matched their low point below .500 for the season.
What does Molitor see when he looks ahead? For too many years, the Twins have projected a rebound year in 2017 based on the potential of Sano and Byron Buxton. Sano, however, is half the player this year that he was as a rookie. Buxton has failed to hit Major League pitching despite being handed the centerfield job three times already and is scuffling in the minors. Both, too, are injury-prone. Very few, anymore, are dreaming that Sano and Buxton will take the Twins anywhere. Mauer can only get worse, Plouffe will never be consistent, Grossman will likely remain a journeyman, catching is a future weak spot and there’s no long-term substitute for Buxton in center. But this shaky defensive unit looks good compared to the Twins pitching, and that’s the ultimate key. The two brightest spots for the future – Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey – were just exiled to AAA out of management’s frustration that they don’t seem to learn anything. Kyle Gibson, the only proven homegrown talent, has a horrific game for every good one. Twins fans were delighted to get rid of Ricky Nolasco, but Hector Santiago, whom they got in exchange, has so far been worse.
It’s one thing to coach a losing team if they respond to instruction, you see them improving, and the future looks promising. None of these, however, apply to the current roster of Twins. If I were Paul Molitor, I would announce I’m resigning at season’s end, before anyone can fire me.

Typical Twins

/0 Comments/in , /by

The Twins offense had an unusually good night against the Tampa Bay Rays last night: Nunez had two hits, two stolen bases and two runs, although his ground-ball double play with the bases loaded in the fifth was the decisive losing moment. Joe Mauer had two singles with men in scoring position, although only one scored and the game was out of reach by then. Brian Dozier had two hits – best of all a rare double to rightfield, albeit on a weak swing. And even Byron Buxton had a two-hit game and showed off his speed on the bases. Max Kepler made two plays in right that Sano would not have. The Twins and Rays both had 11 hits. Four of the Rays’ hits, though, were home runs.

On the negative side, Trevor Plouffe batted cleanup and was a black hole, where all rallies went to die. He swung Dozier-like, pulling everything and looking frustrated. Worse, he’s hitting .245, 100 points below Danny Valencia, a Twin discard who is alive in Oakland. I hope it has become as clear to the Minnesota front office as it is to me that Sano has to be the Twins third baseman of the future – with a possible shift to first when Mauer is gone. This was to be the year that Plouffe and Dozier reached their primes and carried the team. Both have flopped, and a new direction is required.

Next Year’s Twins

/0 Comments/in /by

[fusion_text]Everyone’s a general manager these days, and I’m no exception. Rather than linger on the Twins’ surprisingly successful 2015 season – which, thankfully, finished above .500 but short of the playoffs – I am already in roster-planning mode for 2016. And what a happy prospect it is!

Start with starting pitching, the heart of a successful team. This appears to be a strength, thanks to the totally unforeseen emergence of Tyler Duffey as the team’s ace. Next, Ervin Santana came on strong and will be available for a full season. Kyle Gibson gets a little better each year, especially at home, and should be a dependable third man in the rotation, capable of a 15-win season. Then there is Jose Berrios: I’ve never seen him pitch, but if he is as good as he’s been in the minors, he will earn a spot. That leaves one opening for Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco or Trevor May – and thankfully closes the door on Mike Pelfrey. That’s an enviable competition to have, and while Hughes and Nolasco will be paid a lot of Minnesota money, whether they pitch or not, I’ll be happy if Milone emerges on top. Of course, with injuries inevitable, it would be nice to be able to stockpile one of these starters.

The relief pitching is almost as important and much more uncertain. Kevin Jepsen earned the closer role, which raises the question of Glen Perkins, who is also on the line for a large salary, awarded when he was deemed the closer for years to come. First, can he be happy as the 8th-inning setup man? More to the point, can he regain the form that totally deserted him from the All-Star Game on? Was his problem physical? Or did he lose confidence? Trevor May was the next most effective reliever, but some thought he had the greatest upside as a starter. The surplus of starters and paucity of relievers argues for keeping him in the latter role, at least for now. The rest are journeymen, and you never know who among them will have a good year. Every season the Twins pick up someone who surprises – a Casey Fien, a Blaine Boyer – so it’s foolish at this distance to predict who that will be in 2016. I do think, however, the string has run out on Brian Duensing; and I expect to see J.R. Graham getting more minor league experience now that his Rule 5 year has passed.

The biggest issue on the offensive side is, what to do with Joe Mauer? He is vastly overpaid, and will be for three years, and has lost almost all his fan support. His lack of power for a first baseman is embarrassing, his unchangingly mild demeanor is frustrating, his play in the field is average, at best, and when he hits .260 instead of .320 you wonder what he is doing smack in the middle of the lineup day after day. If you could get him to catch again, even part-time, it would provide an upgrade over what’s there now. Trevor Plouffe at first would offer better defense, more power, and the chance to play Miguel Sano at third. Kennys Vargas is another possibility at first, but he would have to hit more consistently than he did this year.

Brian Dozier will be the second baseman, although one hopes he can be taught to hit to right and not wear down as the season progresses. It is hard not to think that his early success make him homer-happy, which led to a plethora of strikeouts and groundballs to short. Eduardo Escobar solidified the shortstop position, and Plouffe or Sano will man third. Kurt Suzuki slipped some at catcher and clearly needs better relief than Hermann or Fryer could provide.

The outfield, too, is interesting. Pencil in Eddie Rosario for the next ten years. Beyond that, if Aaron Hicks can take another step forward, as he did this season, he’s the centerfielder. Byron Buxton was brought up prematurely when Hicks was hurt and the team was floundering; he needs, and deserves, a year at AAA (which he’s never had) learning how to hit breaking balls. Should the Twin bring back Torii Hunter? It depends on who else is available. As of now, I’d say yes. I don’t know if Max Kepler, the Twins’ minor league player of the year, is ready to start in the majors. I’d certainly take Hunter over this year’s fourth outfielder, Shane Robinson.

That’s what I’d do with the present roster. Maybe the Twins can trade Plouffe or Hughes for a catcher, reliever or outfielder, and I have no idea what free agents will be on the market. That’s what will make the winter interesting, that – more than the Timberwolves or Wild – will keep me turning to the Strib’s sports pages. And in only four months spring training will begin…

[/fusion_text]

Golf and Twins

/0 Comments/in /by

[fusion_text]I have discovered a thread common to two of my hobbies: playing golf and watching the Twins. It is this: something always goes wrong, and what that is constantly changes. If I’m putting well, my driving is off; if my irons are good, my chipping lets me down. Etc. For the Twins, two weeks ago their starting pitching was horrible – an ERA around 6.00 – but their relievers, who had to pitch the majority of innings, held the opposition scoreless, giving the Twins chances to come back, which they sometimes did and sometimes didn’t. Last week, the starters found their groove again, but the relievers fell apart. One day Casey Fien, who had pitched 12 scoreless innings, turned a win into a loss by giving up a 3-run homer. The next day, formerly surprisingly good closer Kevin Jepsen gave up a home run and then loaded the bases before escaping with a 3-2 win. And for the series finale, Trevor May entered in the 7th with two outs and a 2-0 lead and left with the same two outs and a 5-2 deficit. Completing the picture, Neal Cotts gave up a three-run homer, making the Twins’ next three runs academic. It seems that when Escobar-Rosario-Suzuki hit, the top of the order flails, and vice versa. We know that this uncertainty is what makes baseball fun, and why the “better” team still loses one out of three, if they’re lucky. And I heard today the famous saying that “golf is not a game of perfect.” The above is fairly obvious, but it is just now that I have made this connection.[/fusion_text]

Twins Resurgent

/0 Comments/in /by

[fusion_text]Of all the times this year I have given up on the Twins, counted them out for the year, been resigned to their mediocrity, perhaps none was as premature as last night. After erupting for four runs against White Sox ace Chris Sale in the second inning, the Twins were coasting at home. Rookie starter Tyler Duffey had faced 14 batters and gotten 14 outs. He didn’t get another. His three straight walks were demoralizing; then a bloop double and home run off two different relievers in the sixth inning left the Twins suddenly trailing, 5-4, in a game they should have, and had to, win. Barely hanging onto the final wild-card berth, a loss here to start September would surely spell doom.

Then, like a bolt from Thor, the game turned back on one swing from Miguel Sano, the biggest reason these Twins may no longer be the fluke they have seemed for much of the summer. After tying the game in the seventh, the Twins broke it open with three runs in the eighth with a good bunt by Suzuki, baserunning by Buxton and even a “clutch” hit by Mauer. This presented Glen Perkins with another gift “save,” in which he allowed three hits and one run and didn’t miss a bat all night. The Twins are alive for one more day, playing “meaningful” games in September. Who would have thought?

The quotation marks above point me to three final thoughts. The resurgent Twins have been powered by their new players, Sano, Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar, with admirable fill-in play from Eduardo Nunez. The veterans Dozier, Plouffe and Suzuki have been steady, although hitting a combined .240-something. The one player who hasn’t been leading is Joe Mauer, who is taking down more salary than the rest of the starting lineup combined. He chips in with singles and rbi’s and a .275 average that would be respectable for a catcher or a power hitter, but he is neither. Furthermore, he is under that contract for three more years, posing the question of what the Twins will do with him as their young stars mature. He is merely adequate as a first baseman, a position either Sano or Plouffe could fill with power.

Perkins’s save was too similar to almost all his outings since (and including) the All-Star Game. His first two blown saves crushed the team’s spirit – based on their play in the games that followed – and were both among the times I wrote them off for the year. Maybe his sore neck was responsible, but if he was healthy last night he didn’t look much better. By contrast, Yankees closer Andrew Miller struck out the side in his ninth inning, which is the kind of confidence-inspiring performance you want from a closer. Complicating, but perhaps helping, the situation is the emergence of both Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen as shut-down relievers. Jepsen fared well in Perkins’s absence, but what will allow Paul Molitor to use him in place of Perkins now that Perkins is back?

Finally, I should add some perspective to the meaningfulness of the Twins’ September. Yes, they could sneak into the wild-card game, although Texas, with Cole Hamels, should have an edge over Minnesota’s unpredictable starting staff. But is this any better than making the NBA Playoffs as the eighth seed from the Eastern Conference? The Twins don’t have an ace to play in the one-game wild-card playoff. And if they survive that – seemingly against the Yankees, who have dominated them – they would run into the Blue Jays, Astros or Royals, all of whom are playing on a different level. Still, it could be a good learning experience for the rookies to build on in 2016; so I will continue to watch and hope.

[/fusion_text]

Surprising Twins at the Break

/0 Comments/in , /by

Since I have written off the Twins twice already, I owe them a positive notice at the traditional midsummer break, which finds them with the third best record in the entire American League. Regardless of what transpires the rest of the year, I applaud them from turning a projected wasted year into a season of captivating baseball. For many reasons, the Twins have been fun to watch.

1. The starting rotation is amazingly better than last year’s. I’ll bet the Twins pitchers have recorded more “quality starts” by mid-July than they logged all last season. That means that, win or lose, the Twins are in almost every game. There is no Chris Sale or David Price ace, but Tommy Milone and Kyle Gibson have been solid, limiting the opposition to a run here, a run there, nothing more. Phil Hughes hasn’t been the number one starter he was last year, but both he and Mike Pelfrey are good for six innings more often than not. Trevor May has shown the potential to pair with Gibson for years to come, while his replacement, Ervin Santana, has the look of a competent pitcher in his two starts, one good, one bad.

2. Rookies have been a surprise. Principally, this means Eddie Rosario, who was called up as an injury replacement and has shown no sign of ever leaving. He hits lefties and righties and uses all fields and is a wonderful defensive upgrade from Oswaldo Arcia, who started the year in left. It’s too soon to declare Miguel Sano as established, but he sure looks comfortable and has shown the power the Twins sorely lacked. Both he and Byron Buxton were projected as late-season callups once the race was over, but both vaulted up much sooner from Double-A. In Buxton’s case, it may be premature: he looked lost against breaking pitches before he was injured and he was thrown out both times he tried to steal; but his athleticism is obvious and there is hope he can still develop as a hitter (see the following).

3. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have gone from mediocre hole-pluggers to legitimate Major League regulars, the kind we saw on teams in the ’50s. Both have solidified the Twins’ infield defense and, pending Sano’s emergence, represent what passes for power on the Twins. Dozier’s walk-off homer against Detroit, when the Twins came back from 6-1 down in the ninth, just may have given his team the confidence it needs to contend this year. It certainly sparked them to wins against the Tigers the next two days, turning around the psychology of that important matchup.

4. Everyone is chipping in. The Twins are just as likely to get runs from the bottom of the lineup as the middle. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Rosario and even the formerly forlorn Aaron Hicks have all contributed to the offense. Other days it is Torii Hunter, Dozier and Plouffe. Joe Mauer is having another terrible year and leads the league in warning-track outs, but somehow is the team’s statistical leader in hitting with runners in scoring position.

5. Torii Hunter has given the team a personality. We don’t get to see them dancing in the locker room after wins, but we do see the three outfielders’ synchronized leap at game’s end and you get the feeling that everybody gets along and is having fun playing the game.

A lot could go wrong in the second half. Dozier and Plouffe, who are irreplaceable, could go into prolonged slumps. Opposing pitchers could discover a flaw in Sano’s swing. Hunter will turn 40. Once any of the pitchers starts to get pummeled, they could all lose confidence. Perkins has been perfect in save opportunities, but he is hardly unhittable. And just as the Royals have lost Alex Gordon and the Tigers Miguel Cabrera, someone could get hurt, exposing the Twins’ lack of depth. But I’ll take my chances; there are enough good story lines to follow and whatever the Twins do, I’ll be watching.

Twins Fall Fast

/0 Comments/in /by

[fusion_text]One week after the Twins had the best record in the American League they are falling toward mediocrity, and maybe more. When they were in first I had no idea, as I suggested in a previous post, what they were doing there. As for why they have lost four straight, with more to come, the answer is obvious: they are just not that good. More particularly, their offense was a mirage that has now evaporated. When your only hitter with double-digit home runs is your leadoff batter (after 60 games) you know there’s a power shortage. Then throw in .260 averages for your best regulars, including number-three hitter Joe Mauer, and the lack of run production is totally predictable.

The Twins’ starting pitching has been remarkably good. Without an established ace, the starters are churning out quality start after quality start. All that accomplishes, though, is putting the spotlight on the sputtering attack. Earlier in the season, things were going so well that we didn’t mind that hopes-of-the-future Buxton and Sano were still down in Double-A. Now, however, I am dying to see Buxton, at least, called up, if only so I don’t have to watch Aaron Hicks suffer. The relief pitching has been fine, but that only helps when the team is ahead (which is the only time Molitor will use his best: Boyer, Fien and Perkins). Now that Stauffer is gone, there is only Duensing to be cleared out. Oh, and they have to figure out what to do with Nolasco. It would be nice if another team wanted him.[/fusion_text]

Twins in First

/0 Comments/in /by

[fusion_text]I must acknowledge the Twins’ appearance, however fleeting, at the top of the AL East standings (5/28/15). This represents an extraordinary turnaround from their disastrous first week when I, and many others more informed than I, wrote them off for the season. It is also a surprise to the national prognosticators who uniformly picked the Twins to finish in the cellar for a third (or is it a fourth?) consecutive season.

How have they done it?, is the question, and despite watching many recent games on MLB.TV, I have no answer. They lack a power hitter, and no regular is batting over, or even close to, .300. Their defense is solid, if pedestrian. Their one historic All-Star, Joe Mauer, plays a power position, first base, but has one home run. Their relievers, with the exception of closer Glen Perkins, are pitchers I’d never heard of. Perkins, it is true, is 18 for 18 in save situations, but he’s been doing more like Eddie Guardado than Mariano Rivera.

The most obvious group that should be credited with the Twins’ resurgence is the starting rotation. Again, though, there is no dominant pitcher and no breakout star. In fact, the one pitcher who was supposed to anchor the rotation, Ervin Santana, will not join the team for another month because of his drug suspension. Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May and Pelfrey have all looked terrible at times, but seemingly on cue they have all begun to build comfortably winning records. Perhaps they realize that the first to falter will be replaced by Santana, if not an original member of the rotation, Tommy Milone, who is tearing up Triple-A.

The best explanation I can offer comes down to the intangible that may be the most important difference between winning and losing in sports, and that is confidence. Once the Twins started winning with their anonymous lineup, they began to believe they should be winning and the cycle kept repeating itself. Maybe this came from the positive spirit brought in by Torii Hunter. Maybe it’s due to new manager Paul Molitor. Maybe the critical mass of Latin players who relaxed each other. Who knows? The next question is, what will happen when the inevitable losing streak arrives? Will the confidence crumble and the wheels fall off, exposing the obvious talent deficiencies?

All I know for sure (and the same thing has been stated by the reporters and broadcasters covering the team) is that the Twins have become a fun team to watch and made me cautiously optimistic, but no more, about the summer of baseball to come.

[/fusion_text]

Defensive Indifference

/0 Comments/in , /by

[fusion_text]When the Twins have a lead larger than one in the ninth and a baserunner reaches first, they routinely decline to hold him on, giving him a free run to second base but allowing the first baseman to play behind the runner in presumably a better defensive position. Rather than registeringing this a stolen base, baseball scores this a nullity,  calling it “defensive indifference.” There is one additional marginal benefit: it allows Twins closer Glen Perkins to focus all his attention on the batter.

I am waiting for the statheads to pronounce on the wisdom of this maneuver, but until I see the empirical evidence let me give my view: I hate it, and I shall now count the ways.

One: allowing the baserunner to move from first to second eliminates the force play at second. I have frequently seen the play – the ground ball up the middle, the ground ball in the shortstop hole – where an out was possible at second base but not at first. Rarer, in my experience, is the play where the first baseman could not get an out because he was holding the runner instead of playing behind him. Thus, defensively, the DI makes no sense.

Two: the pitcher’s ability to hold a runner on first atrophies. Perkins is the prime example. He so routinely allows the runner to take second that he has become terrible at holding on the runner when it is needed. You can look it up, but my sense is that he has one of the highest stolen-base percentages of any lefthanded pitcher. In his mind, all that is important is getting the batter out. Unfortunately, sometimes the batter gets a hit, and if a runner has stolen second that can mean a run and the lead.

Three: I don’t like to see “meaningless” runs. Sure, a 6-5 victory counts the same as 6-4, but it doesn’t feel the same. Someone has gotten an rbi and someone has scored a run they don’t deserve. The team gets credit for a “one-run win,” which some analysts down the line will use as a yardstick for clutch performance. And to the unwary distant observer, the game will look to have been closer than it actually was – just as an empty-net goal makes a hockey game appear more lopsided than it really was.

Four: Every athlete in professional sports should give full effort at all times. This is, admittedly, a moral view of sports that is subjective and personal. In club tennis we talk of giving a “courtesy game,” rather than winning 6-love, but no professional would expect, or probably want, such a courtesy. The extreme example was Brett Favre’s allowing Michael Strahan to tackle him at the end of a game so Strahan would set the sack record. Strahan’s record, as a result, is forever tainted. A run scored after DI is not as bad, but it’s in the same ballpark. Every run should be earned, is how I look at it.

My clincher on the inappropriateness of defensive indifference is this: baseball is a game of statistics, ad nauseum, ad infinitum. I have yet, however, to see a statistic relating in any way to DI (e.g., which team has given up the most). No one thinks of it as part of baseball, and it shouldn’t be.[/fusion_text][fusion_text]Click edit button to change this text.[/fusion_text]