Twins Update

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The Twins’ relatively hot start in 2023 makes my end-of-year preview already look unduly gloomy. Their off-season additions have pleasantly surprised: while Byron Buxton has yet to play an inning in centerfield, newcomer Michael Taylor has been more than adequate defensively and an asset in the number nine hole. For one thing, he’s the only Twin who knows how to bunt. Joey Gallo has made everyone forget Miguel Sano. His home runs are just as long, but they are more frequent and don’t come with multiple strikeouts. So far, he’s hitting 100 points above his average with the Yankees last spring. Carlos Correa, surprisingly, resigned with the Twins for more money than he’s worth and so far has been a disappointment. He does, however, solidify the infield, allowing Jorge Polanco to play his natural position, second base. Former Red Sock Christian Vasquez is an equal to Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. The most valuable addition, however, until he got creamed in the face with a fastball, was Michael Farmer, who was a smart hitter and provided depth everywhere in the infield.

Among the holdovers, Jose Miranda and Max Kepler are starting to hit after slow starts, and Polanco has been the hitting machine I originally considered him, after a late return from last year’s injury. Alex Kiriloff is still conditioning in the minors but provides hope that more firepower is on the way. Nick Gordon and Willi Castro can easily give way to Farmer and Kiriloff when they’re ready. Nothing phases Trevor Larnach, and there’s reason to hope he hasn’t reached his ceiling. In fact, my two biggest concerns on offense are Correa and Buxton. Buxton is easy to strike out when a good pitcher bears down,  and he kills rallies. On the other hand, his one good at-bat will more often lead to a run than anyone else’s. Correa is receiving a pass despite hitting below .200, based on his track record and salary and the fact he is still young. We assume he will heat up and get his average back to his norm, but in the meantime he is leading the league by my count) in runners left on base.

The Twins’ amazing opening week featured all five starters pitching well into their games and giving up one or no runs. Until the not-quite-right Kenta Maeda gave up 11 runs the other day, the Twins starters’ ERA was top two in the league. Among Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, it’s hard to name the Twins’ “ace.” By giving him a $73 million contract after less than a month with the team, the organization seemed to be anointing Lopez, but since that event he’s had two bad starts. Ryan, on the other hand, has been locked and loaded every time out, and Gray has by far the best stuff and most experience. I expected Tyler Mahle to be the annual retread who didn’t measure up, but he has held his own, his current sore elbow notwithstanding. It was only a matter of time before Bailey Ober, who was good last year before getting hurt and had the best spring in camp, got called up and plugged into the rotation. He’s there now and should remain. Maeda was great in 2020, not so good in ’21 and out in ’22. He’s also 35, having pitched eight years in Japan before four years with the Dodgers; so when he has struggled to pitch more than five innings this year even before his arm got sore, you have to think his future as a starter is not bright.

The Twins lost 3-2 today because their bullpen stars faltered, but that happens. It was too good to be true to think that Manager Rocco Baldelli could throw out Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez and Jhoan Duran anytime he needed three shut-down innings at the end of a game, with Emilio Pagan, Jovani Moran and whoever else was up from St. Paul that week for games that weren’t so close. Time will tell if the relievers hold up over the year. I’m most worried that Jax is not the dependable 7th-inning man Baldelli thinks he is; and the jury is still out on whether Duran can fulfill his closer potential.

Their first encounters next week with division rivals White Sox and Guardians may give a better indication of whether the Twins’ good start is a harbinger or an aberration. Minnesota fans who have just lived through disappointments with the Timberwolves, Wild and Vikings will undoubtedly expect the worst. But if the starting pitching does, indeed, keep them in almost every game, the season will be fun to watch.

 

Twins Preview ’23

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After last season I thought: at least the Twins won’t try to rely on Max Kepler or Emilio Pagan again. Whomever they get will have to be better. Starting the 2023 season, however, Kepler is still in right field and Pagan is back in the bullpen. How, therefore, can the Twins be improved? Short answers: with the infield shift banned, some of Kepler’s inevitable balls toward right field may now be base hits; and Pagan, rather than the closer, is at best the fourth option for that role. These are weak threads upon which to hang optimism for the season, however.

The Twins’ big excuse for last year’s poor performance was injuries. Of course, other teams had injured players too, but we mostly noticed ours. With a long playoff-less offseason to recover, one would hope that the Twins would at least enter the year healthy. It is, therefore, discouraging that three of this year’s projected starters–Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kiriloff–have yet to recover from the injuries that sidelined them last season. Before anyone can even get hurt, the Twins are at a deficit. The fact that three of their offseason acquisitions are backups for these players makes me think the Twins brass knew this was coming.

Then there is the case of Joey Gallo. The one unalloyed relief for this year is the absence of Miguel Sano, an immensely talented hitter who totally squandered his abilities. In his place the Twins picked up Gallo, another quondam power hitter who rivals Sano in his strikeouts. If Kiriloff weren’t hurt and played to his potential, the Twins wouldn’t need Gallo. As it is, the writers keep raving about Gallo’s Gold Gloves, as if that mattered.

Carlos Correa is back – yeah! – but I never saw him as an offensive force last year. He raised his average to .290 late in the season, but wasn’t the clutch middle-of-the-lineup hitter the Twins needed. Jose Miranda came closest to filling that role, but sophomore years can go either way and he’s a downgrade from Gio Urshela at third. My hopes for a breakout sophomore year rest on Trevor Larnach. For half of 2022 he looked ready to take away Kepler’s spot, but then he got hurt and wasn’t the same when he returned. Byron Buxton, the team’s supposed superstar, had one great month last year, but he didn’t play a game in the preseason and is being babied at DH for the foreseeable future. At catcher, the Twins replaced Gary Sanchez with Christian Vasquez, a former Red Sox for a Yankee, an upgrade on defense but a loss on offense.

Where will the runs come from? is the question that worries most observers, including yours truly. It’s hard to believe that three years ago this franchise set a Major League for home runs: I don’t see anyone here hitting 30. Nor is this a team that will manufacture runs with speed. Correa refuses to steal out of concern for injury; Buxton has been hurt trying to steal and will not want to aggravate his sensitive knee; everyone else is slow. The Twins were last in stolen bases last year and are even money to repeat, even while the enlarged bases and limited pickoff rule should make base stealing a much bigger deal in ’23.

The only realistic hope for improvement comes courtesy of the pitching staff. Gone are Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, two short starters who put stress on the bullpen. Although there is no Number One, there are five potentially competent starters, any one of whom could have a big year. Tyler Mahle and Pablo Lopez are new to the team, and Kenta Maeda is back from injury. Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan both performed well last year and there is no reason to think they won’t be as good or better. Relief success is never predictable, but Jhoan Duran could be a great closer; Jorge Lopez was an All-Star for Baltimore; Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran beat out the other lefties; and manager Rocco Baldelli loves Griffin Jax. Jorge Alcala throws heat, and we haven’t even had to mention, let alone rely on, Emilio Pagan. And bonus: given the rate that pitchers get injured, it’s nice to have several experienced arms across the river in St. Paul, starting with Bailey Ober, who was one of the Twins’ better pitchers last year when not hurt.

The big question that will be asked all year: is Pablo Lopez worth giving up the AL batting champion, Luis Arraez? If the Twins batters all hit below .250, you’ll have to wonder. If Lopez cements a lights-out rotation, you won’t worry about cheering Luis on in Miami.

The last factor worth mentioning: the opposition. The American League Central is the weakest division by far in the AL, if not all of baseball. Without playing too far above their heads, the Twins should finish above Detroit, Kansas City and probably Chicago. The Cleveland Indians, though, are another story. In their second-half series with the Twins, they played a different brand of baseball: scrappy, fast, with power and the best player on the field, Jose Ramirez. They are young, hungry and on the rise. I don’t see how the Twins can compete with them. My hope–the best I can do–is that the Twins win as many as they lose; that their games are close and exciting; and that, as so often happens in baseball, someone shows up that I haven’t mentioned or even thought about, to give us Twins fans hope for the future.

Twins Wrap-up

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After one of the more disappointing seasons for the Minnesota Twins, everyone has thoughts on what needs to be done for 2022; I will offer mine.
First, what were the good signs for the future, developments to build on:
Two rookies emerged as mainstays of the roster, and there is every reason to expect them to continue to develop. Joe Ryan was the Opening Day starter, and unlike every other pitcher he didn’t break down and was going strong at year-end. Jose Miranda came up after the season started and appeared overmatched for about a month. Thereafter he was the Twins’ best clutch hitter, leading the team in RBI. He wasn’t great as a new first baseman, but if the Twins let Gio Urshela go there’s plenty of future for Miranda at third. Reliever Jhoan Duran was the third rookie to provide optimism for the future. In mid-season he seemed dominant, with an unhittable pitch, his “splinker,” to go along with 100 mph fastballs. He slowed down, in effectiveness if not velocity, as the year came to a close; and the jury is out on whether he will be the Twins’ answer as closer.
The next cause for optimism is the potential return of so many players who showed promise but were injured. Alex Kiriloff has long been touted as the Twins’ next pure hitter. Fellow rookie outfielder Trevor Larnach was, for awhile, a doubles machine and looked deserving of taking over Max Kepler’s place before cooling off then being lost for the season. Royce Lewis was briefly exciting as the future at shortstop but won’t see action until next midsummer, at the earliest. Bailey Ober, Tyler Mahle, Chris Paddack, Josh Winder and a returning Kenta Maeda provide potential depth at starting pitcher, behind Ryan and Sonny Gray, but who’s to say the injury bug that struck them all down in 2022 will be any kinder in 2023.
The other clear cause for cheer is the Twins’ cutting ties with strike-out heavy disappointment Miguel Sano and the frustrating one-and-done duo of Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, who were incapable of pitching more than five innings an outing.
This leads us to causes of concern. Number One, as usual, is Byron Buxton. He was AL Player of the Month in May then a .200 hitter the rest of the year when he wasn’t hurt. Each year the Twins build the team around him; each year he is injured and misses much of the season, leaving the Twins with a patchwork of centerfielders. How many more years of his multi-year contract will he be this black hole in the lineup?
The other “core” members of the squad–Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers–play well enough most of the time to provide hope, but the hope never materializes into the required impact. Maybe one of last year’s rookies can move Kepler out of the lineup, but with Lewis injured and Carlos Correa gone to free agency, Polanco will have to hold down an infield spot while reminding us of his potential. The Twins don’t even have a backup to Jeffers, so there’s little chance they will get much from the catcher position.
Scanning the infield I realize I have omitted the Twins’ best, most exciting player, Luis Arraez. It may be too much to expect him to lead the league in batting average again, but why not? I quite liked the way he played first base in his first year there, although the Twins may be tempted to sign a more typical power-hitting lug, which will likely only add to their phenomenal strikeout totals.
There’s no point evaluating or predicting the relief corps. A reliever is seldom as good next year as the last, and new arms are constantly being found in the minors or in trades. I do like Caleb Thielbar, though.
My final two thoughts are perhaps the most important. One, there will be rookies I’m not counting on who make the team and surprise everyone. This happens every year. Two, the Cleveland Guardians in the last month raised the level of play in the Twins’ division, and they are young and fast. Even if all goes right for the players discussed above, it may not be enough.

Twins at Quarter Pole

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Twenty-nine percent into the 2022 season it’s still impossible to gauge this year’s Twins team. It seems just as possible that they will implode as that they will maintain their five-game hold on first place, although the relative weakness of the other Central Division teams makes the latter the slightly stronger bet. The major takeaways at this point are 1. the starting rotation is much, much better than anyone predicted; 2. the relievers are at least average, often impressive but still inconsistent; 3. the hitters, thanks to Miguel Sano’s absence, can be dangerous up and down the lineup, but 4. their clutch hitting is maddeningly woeful; 5. their defense is solid but baserunning merely average; and 6. the roster’s depth is good, but limited. Finally, I can’t judge team “chemistry,” either its existence or importance, but reports in this regard are favorable.

While the Twins entered spring training with only one surefire starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, at one point last month they had eight (8!) competent choices to give them five or six shutout innings. Chris Paddack is now out for the year (and longer), making the trade that sent Major League save leader Taylor Rogers (and cash) to San Diego one of the most lopsided in team history. Josh Winder showed brilliant flashes in his first starts, and we don’t know how much his subsequent loss of effectiveness was related to the injury that has him sidelined. That leaves six, and since Rocco Baldelli is committed to a five-man rotation, one will be sacrificed once Joe Ryan comes off the Covid list. At the rate that injuries are occurring, I’m sure Rocco is thinking that this decision will be made for him. But if it is not, it is clear to me that the Twins should keep Devin Smeltzer in the rotation and see if Chris Archer can move to long-relief, pending Winder’s return. Archer hasn’t pitched past the 4th inning, he has been hurt or inactive the last two years, and, as the Kansas City announcers commented yesterday, his deliberate pace causes his fielders to fall asleep behind him, hurting their defense. It’s possible that Bailey Ober or Dylan Bundy could prove less reliable than needed, and that is probably what will determine the ultimate success or disappointment of the Twins’ year.

Among relievers, the big story is the emergence of Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ first-ever blow-em’-away reliever, meaning there’s no longer reason to follow the career of Brusdar Graterol. He’s being gradually groomed to become a shut-down closer, and there’s cause for hope that he will get even better. Except for side-arming Joe Smith, who has generally owned the 7th inning, everyone else in the bullpen has had solid stretches only to occasionally falter. I particularly like Caleb Thielbar, who can make lefty batters look foolish, but his role is perforce limited. Tyler Duffey shares late-inning regular duty with Smith, and when Duffey is on, the bridge from the starter to the closer is usually uneventful. The designated closer, more often than not, has been Emilio Pagan, obtained from San Diego for the much better Rogers. Pagan seems incapable of inducing a 1-2-3 inning, which is hard on the nerves. Like all Twins fans, I long for the moment when Duran will be ready to take over the 9th inning and, like Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera, give us the comfortable feeling that the game is over.

In Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa, both acquired in the offseason, the Twins have a left side of the infield as good as, or better than, any in baseball. Second and first base pose more interesting questions. Jorge Polanco is fine defensively but is hitting about 80 points below his early standard (when on steroids?). Luis Arraez, a natural second-baseman, is hitting 100 points above Polanco and simply has to be a regular in the Twins lineup. So far, he’s been filling in, quite adequately, for Sano at first base; but first basemen are normally power hitters, which Arraez is not, and tall, which the 5’10” Arraez also is not. There is no way the Twins fan base will accept a return by Sano, unless perhaps he earns it by hitting a home run per game with the Saints for a protracted period. But the Twins already have two players on the Saints team who deserve to be in the Majors, Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis, who could outperform Sano and should be with the Twins soon in any case. Polanco does have a history of clutch hits, so it won’t happen; but I could see an infield of Urshela-Correa-Arraez-Kiriloff that would make me happy.

Of course, the original plan was for an outfield of Kiriloff-Buxton-Kepler, but Kiriloff’s injury and early scuffling opened the door for Trevor Larnach, who is now the Twins’ best lefthanded power hitter and a great eye. Kyle Garlick has carried over the promise he showed last year as a power threat against lefthanders and thus creates a natural platoon with Larnach, when one is not needed at DH. Fortunately, the Twins’ fortunes don’t rise and fall as much as expected with Buxton, for he has been maddeningly inconsistent, from being player-of-the-month in April to going 0-for-May. How much of this decline was caused by his knee tendinitis, how much by being “rested” every third game to protect his health? Whatever the cause, his confidence has suffered, and he has played centerfield and run the bases more hesitantly than in years past. If this is just a slump and he emerges from it, the Twins will be much stronger, but they are, in the meantime, learning to compete without his contributions. Barring injury–and he underwent an MRI yesterday–Max Kepler will remain a fixture in right field, despite the streaky nature of his hitting. There’s always the chance that he will get hot, in which case he’s a force.

As for their catchers, Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez are both adequate, nothing more. Although both will struggle to hit above .200, they are both capable of the occasional big hit. Based on the success of the pitching staff, they must be doing a competent job behind the plate, although one doesn’t expect to see either throw out a base stealer–fortunately, for the Twins, a lost art.

The Twins reserves are an interesting bunch. Because of injuries and Covid absences, they have played almost as much as some regulars and all have had moments in the sun. Gilberto Celestino has played all outfield positions, and while he doesn’t appear much of an offensive weapon he has maintained his average over .300. Nick Gordon is the most versatile and could probably acquit himself well at all nine positions. Plus, he is apparently the only Twin who knows how to put down a sacrifice bunt. One wonders if there is room for growth and improvement to the extent he replaces Eduardo Escobar as best recent Twins utility player. The third reserve currently is Jose Miranda, who showed great promise as a hitter with the Saints but who is, so far, out of his league at this level. I was among the multitude miffed by the decision to send Royce Lewis back to the minors in favor of Miranda, as Lewis clearly belonged. Long term, I have no doubt this will be corrected. Maybe sooner than long term.

PS: As the Twins approach the three-quarter pole (August 22), the above evaluation hardly needs an edit. Injuries have altered the personnel–Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Ober, Winder, Jeffers and Garlick are missing–but items 1-6 are all on point. Especially “4. their clutch hitting is maddeningly woeful.” The lone improvement has come from Jose Miranda, who has shown he definitely belongs.

 

Twins Preview ’22

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Hope springs eternal, which is the main reason I’m looking forward to the Twins season. They definitely upgraded themselves in several places, notably adding Carlos Correa from the Astros at shortstop. Gio Urshela from the Yankees will be an improvement over Josh Donaldson at 3rd, if only because expectations won’t be so high. And then, of course, if Byron Buxton doesn’t get hurt, that could be the biggest plus of all.

Pitching is the biggest unknown, because the makeover is almost total. Of 16 pitchers, 13 have been added since last year’s opening day. I happen to like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, two almost-rookies who throw hard and fearlessly, but they have no track record. Sonny Gray, the new ace, had better be good. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy have been good, but not recently. The Twins have a record of hopeful signings that don’t work out–Matt Shoemaker last year being the most recent and worst–and management must be aware of this history, for they traded for another starter, Chris Paddack from San Diego, yesterday. The Twins will go with a six-man rotation until they see which one isn’t working. (And they sent Devin Smeltzer to St. Paul, despite a flawless spring, to keep stretched out and ready.)

Jim Souhan’s Opening Day column stressed the importance of having an effective closer, citing the failures of Alex Colome last year as souring the entire 2021 season. In response, later that day the Twins traded their projected closer, Taylor Rogers, their most effective reliever the last three years. The theory must be that you don’t overpay for a “closer,” because you never know who can do the job (until you try them), and Rogers was in his free-agent year. Maybe Tyler Duffey will do the job; maybe one of the young guys will emerge; or maybe the lack of closer will torpedo the year. (Then again, if the Twins don’t get the lead, the lack of a closer is immaterial.)

As for the rest of the squad, I’m excited to see if Alex Kiriloff is the real deal. Max Kepler consistently plays below potential and I expect more of the same. Luis Arraez is a sure .300 hitter; I hope he gets to play. One option is first base, still manned by the perpetually frustrating Miguel Sano, His home runs are great, but are they worth strikeout after strikeout? I worry that putting Sano and Gary Sanchez in the lineup together will produce a black hole.

In sum, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Twins this year: Correa, Gray and Urshela represent bold moves. But when you look around the division, all the other teams seem to have improved themselves, as well, and they finished ahead of Minnesota last year. And the Twins’ Central Division is, far and away, the weak sister of the American League. So much for baseball as a zero-sum game.

The Save

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Traditional baseball statistics are being devalued, as their relationship to actual player value is rightly questioned. A pitcher’s won-lost record is now regularly described as unimportant. One current example is the pitcher who pitches four shutout innings in a 7-inning doubleheader game but doesn’t qualify for a win, even though, percentage-wise, he has contributed more innings to his team’s victory that the pitcher who goes five innings in a 9-inning game.
I have previously criticized the rules for a “save” as being capricious and arbitrary, and Wednesday’s Twins win over the Cubs (9/22/21) provided a glaring example. Alex Colome, the Twins’ dubious closer, was brought on in the 9th to protect a 5-2 lead, the minimum margin eligible for a save. Before recording the third out (on a swinging strikeout in the dirt), he had given up a double, two singles, a walk and three stolen bases, but only two runs. For this less-than-stellar performance he was awarded a save. The three relievers before him gave up a total of one hit and no runs, but Colome got a save, not them.

Twins “Progress” Report

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August 21. The Twins’ brief spurt of encouraging wins against Houston, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Cleveland is giving way to the all-too-familiar collapse when facing the Yankees, which leads to a sober reassessment of not only where they are, but where they could be next year. In rereading my preseason predictions on this site, I see I shouldn’t be surprised at the Twins’ lack of success, although I was overoptimistic in hoping for a .500 record. I mentioned that Sano and Buxton’s seasons would be decisive, and my warnings about the former’s strikeouts and the latter’s injuries appear prescient. The other place I was slightly offbase was in my hope that some unexpected rookie would show up and make a difference.
It is this last disappointment that is so discouraging when thoughts turn to 2022. Since Memorial Day the Twins have been holding open auditions, first for their minor leaguers and more recently for players obtained when they traded Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz and Hansel Robles. Garlick, Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach, Refsnyder and Gordon have all been offered extended playing time in the outfield. Granted, tryouts for the first two were cut short by injury, but only Kiriloff gave any hint that he could become a force, and “hint” may be putting it strongly. For now, I see a lot of Bobby Kielty/Dustan Mohr, let alone Kepler/Rosario. That leaves the outfield in the hands of Buxton, who apparently will want a long-term contract that only a profligate franchise – i.e., the Yankees or Dodgers – will give him.
Any infield starts with a shortstop, and the Twins’ move to upgrade the position with Andrelton Simmons has failed. Not only is he hitting like a #9 batter, his errors have led to losses and the Twins’ record as the worst defensive team in the league. He will be gone next year but, alas, not Josh Donaldson, who has the most expensive free-agent contract in Minnesota history. He has been playing hurt all year, and his history and muscle-bound body suggests this will not be unusual. The Twins are slow enough as a team without a 3B/DH who has to jog to first and needs a pinch-runner in a close game. The Twins aren’t without options at 3rd–Arraez and minor leaguer Jose Miranda come to mind–but they seem stuck with Donaldson. Arraez is their best and only .300 hitter, but Jorge Polanco, the team’s best clutch hitter, is set at 2B for now. Miguel Sano is a liability at 1B and on the basepaths, but he is a game-changer when his bat is hot. Unfortunately he is a black hole in the middle of the lineup 3/4ths of the time, and his future is behind him.
At catcher, Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers can both put up decent power numbers, but they are overmatched by quality pitching. Neither has shown any growth potential, which brings me to Max Kepler. He looked like a cornerstone of the franchise: a good outfielder, the best base stealer after Buxton, with an uncanny ability to open games with a leadoff home run. On the other hand, he strikes out too much, hits too many balls into the shift and this year is barely hitting above .200. Instead of getting better each year of his multi-year contract, he is shrinking. Regardless of pitching, if the Twins mounted a consistent offense they could be fun to watch. Instead, too many games this year have featured double-digit strikeouts.
As for the pitchers, they can’t overcome a lack of offense, but they do offer a scintilla of hope. Before the All-Star Game I had never heard of Bailey Ober or Griffin Jax, yet both seem to be capable Major League pitchers with room to grow. Charlie Barnes has had a couple good outings, if there’s room in baseball anymore for a crafty lefty. Kenta Maeda, before he got hurt today, looked like a dependable anchor. Silver medalist Joe Ryan, from the Rays, could be the real thing. And there must be a reason Randy Dobnak got a long-term deal. Relief pitchers can come from anywhere and have a good year, and the Twins’ reliance on Alex Colome and Hansel Robles shows, once again, that past performance by a reliever is no guarantee of future success.  The Twins are auditioning a half-dozen new relievers now that winning games doesn’t quite matter. If three stick, Taylor Rogers comes back and they can add one or two more, this area shouldn’t be an issue–and irrelevant if they can’t get a lead.
You like to see new prospects show up each year to give you hope for development and possible future stardom. By this measure, it must be fun to be a White Sox fan these days. For a Twins fan, not so much.

The Sano-Buxton Quandary

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Ever since they appeared on Sports Illustrated’s cover in 2013, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have been linked as the future of the Minnesota Twins. Buxton had been rated the top high-school prospect in the country, the ultimate five-tool player, and the powerful Sano had been featured in a documentary, Pelotero, about the grooming and scouting of prospects in the Dominican Republic. Their potential seemed unlimited. Eight years later, we are still talking of their potential.
Sano broke on the scene with more early success, finishing third in Rookie-of-the-Year voting despite playing only the second half of the 2015 season and making the All-Star team in 2017. Since that game his arc has gone down, not up. He has shown up for camp overweight, appeared uninterested and uncoachable, been injured and led the Majors in strikeouts in 2020. Although he came up as a shortstop, the Twins have tried him at third, rightfield and first base, while showing evidence that his best position would be DH. Buxton, by contrast, has been glorious in centerfield, even winning the Platinum Glove as the league’s top defensive player in 2017, the only year he has played more than 100 games. And that last fact is the rub. From broken tooth to broken pinkie to injured shoulder to injured hip to concussion to whatever, Buxton has been out as much as he’s been in. Until this year he was also a strikeout machine: his 30% K-rate was well below Sano’s 37% over their careers, but both were frequent black holes in the lineup. (For comparison, Max Kepler, no more a contact hitter, has an 18% strikeout rate; Jorge Polanco is 16%, and Luis Arraez is 9%.) Sano will drive you crazy by missing the same pitch, an outside slider, by a foot, while Buxton had the unappetizing habit of staring back at the pitcher as he returned to the dugout after his whiff. More frustrations: if Buxton would only learn to bunt he could raise his batting average by 20 points. Sano could do the same by hitting to all fields, instead of trying to pull every pitch into the upper deck in left.
For all the reasons above, Twins fans on the Strib blog have been screaming for years to trade either Buxton or Sano, or preferably both. That won’t happen, if only because of the risk, shown in letting go David Ortiz a while back, of either blossoming into a superstar elsewhere. But by keeping Buxton and Sano, the Twins are stuck with 2/9ths of a lineup that stubbornly refuses to reach its potential. By relying on Buxton, the Twins find themselves playing Major League games with Gilbert Celestino, at best a AA player, starting in center. By using Sano at first base, they are slowing the development of Nick Kiriloff, their most promising rookie. At DH he would be sidelining Nelson Cruz, their best hitter, and at third base he would take the place of Josh Donaldson, their highest-paid player. On the other hand, Sano has won more games for the Twins this year with his home runs than anyone else on the team. Of course, even with that contribution, the Twins haven’t won that many games. Unlike Sano, Buxton appears to have turned a corner at the plate this year: his strikeouts are down, his home runs are up, and his confidence level is obviously higher. In years past, Sano and Buxton were both mistake-hitters and bad-ball swingers. This year, Buxton is no longer always in an 0-2 count and has shown variety in his hits, albeit still without bunts.
So, the Twins are faced with a dilemma. If they keep Buxton and Sano, there’s a good chance neither will ever get better, and between Sano’s strikeouts and Buxton’s injuries the Twins will be weighed down with their big contracts and an increasingly tepid fan base. When you play rookies, fans can at least project and dream; when you watch Sano flail at pitches with the bases loaded you get dejected. But if you let them go, and either has the season that was projected for them in 2013, what will that reaction be? I’d say the Twins front office has about a 25% chance of getting this right, and I’m glad it’s not my decision.

PS: In November the Twins signed Buxton to a 7-year, $100 million contract, with incentives for performance. This strikes me as a good deal. As mentioned, they had to keep him and this contract doesn’t break the bank. If he turns into a superstar, it will be a bargain.

Season Preview

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It’s hard to be too hopeful about the Twins’ 2021 season, because it’s hard to see where they have improved over the last two years. In fairness, though, it should be noted that the Twins have won more games in those two years than anyone else in the American League, so the bar is relatively high. That said, there are two big changes in the opening day lineup. Gone is leftfielder Eddie Rosario, their RBI and outfield-assist leader. Replacing him for now is Jake Cave, who could never crack the starting lineup on his own or even stay on the major league roster, despite receiving numerous chances. Infield defense has improved with the addition of shortstop Andrelton Simmons, moving Jorge Polanco to second base. On the flip side, this removes the Twins’ best hitter for average, Luis Arraez, from the everyday lineup.
Once again, the Twins’ hopes are resting largely on the two potential superstars, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. But how long have we been waiting on their potential – five years, maybe? Is there a reason to think that this will be the year that Buxton doesn’t get hurt and learns to hit to all fields and maybe even bunt and that Sano won’t again lead the league in strikeouts? There’s no evidence of this from spring training. Unless there’s a dramatic development, Buxton and Sano will continue to demonstrate bursts of brilliance but long stretches of being black holes in the lineup.
There are other causes of worry. Max Kepler is another case of potential unfulfilled. Every year he has a hot streak or two but has yet to achieve the kind of consistency the Twins expected when giving him a multiyear contract. That he got only three measly hits in all spring training does not augur well. Mitch Garver hit with surprising power in 2019 but was a bust in 2020. Which is the real him? And the Twins MVP, Nelson Cruz,will be 41 years old. At what point does age catch up to him? One always hopes there are young players on the rise who will provide an unexpected boost, but the Twins tried out their top prospects this spring–Alex Kiriloff and Brent Rooker, in particular–and none made the team.
The one area where the Twins are improved is their bench. Arraez and Willians Astudillo excel at putting the ball in play, Ryan Jeffers will give Garver competition at catcher and Kyle Garlick led the team in spring training homers. If he doesn’t deliver, they have Kiriloff, Rooker and Keon Broxton waiting in the wings.

One hopes that spring training statistics for the offense are meaningless; I mean, how could a team average fewer than 4 hits a game for a regular season? On the other hand, one would like to think that the pitchers in spring training gave a credible preview of what to expect beginning tomorrow. Kenta Maeda, coming off an almost-Cy Young season, was dominant, allowing one run all spring. Jose Berrios, as usual, was occasionally dominant. Randy Dobnak was just as good as he was the first half of last year and is ready to be slotted into the rotation should either newcomer, J.A. Happ or Matt Shoemaker, falter. The relievers have yet to sort out. Taylor Rogers was a lock-down closer a year ago but hasn’t had the same success recently. Alex Colome was a successful closer with the White Sox and will try for the same, but at age 32 a reliever is an uncertainty. I loved Tyler Duffey last year, but he had a tough spring. In addition to the uncertainties on the roster, there are several relievers who pitched well in spring training who are starting out in St. Paul and will undoubtedly be given shots as the season goes on.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d give the Twins a .500 record, or slightly above, if only because they will play most of their games against Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland, who are no great shakes. The White Sox, under Tony LaRussa, should win the division.  The question already in my mind is, what will the Twins management do at the end of the year, if not before, if any or all of Kepler, Buxton, Sano, and Polanco underperform their contracts. Do they cut their losses and start a rebuild or wait yet another year for potential?

Twins Mid-Season Report

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It’s hard to be discouraged about the Twins at mid-season, given their 20-10 record, second-best in the Majors, a winning percentage that would result in 107 victories in a normal full season. But cracks are appearing, and not just in the two losses to weak-hitting Cleveland following the mid-year mark. The first I’ve alluded to in recent posts–the lack of comeback spirit. When the Twins fall behind early, the game is invariably lost. You get the feeling they are waiting for someone to hit a home run; the idea of building a rally is foreign. Maybe that’s the result of having hit so many home runs last year; such elements of the game as hit-and-run, sacrifice bunt, stolen base are missing. They may seem trivial in today’s game, but they can build momentum, and confidence, which can’t be underrated. Every day I read in the paper of some team overcoming a 3-run deficit in the 9th inning, but never the Twins. For one thing, it makes watching their games less interesting.

Another crack may soon be filled: their starting rotation. It has been more a whirlwind than “rotation,” with the Twins throwing out a reliever to start every fourth game, relying upon up to six pitchers from the bullpen to last nine innings. This has been reasonably successful but has two drawbacks: it wears out relievers who will be needed the next day, and it limits the number of bench players available for offense. So far, the Twins have only two reliable starters: Randy Dobnak and Kenta Maeda. Jose Berrios, the supposed ace, has disappointed and doesn’t exhibit the mental toughness to go with his natural talent. Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi could, and should, both come back from injuries to help. My biggest hope, though, is for Michael Pineda, a real bulldog, to pick up where he left off last year when his suspension expires next week. With potentially six capable starters–necessary due to the compressed schedule, including doubleheaders–the Twins could be well positioned for a stretch run. And it would allow manager Rocco Baldelli to use his large relief corps more effectively.

Tyler Duffey has been impeccable in 7th-inning service, and Taylor Rogers is more than adequate as a closer, although his effectiveness in back-to-back outings is suspect. Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo and Trevor May have all had hiccups but are reasonably reliable. Then there’s a slew of newbies who have occasionally shined; Baldelli can figure out whom to rely on once his starters start giving him six-plus innings. Jorge Alcala, Matt Wisler, Caleb Thielbar, Sean Poppen, Cody Stashak, Danny Coulombe, Devin Smeltzer – normally the roster would only carry half of this list. All have potential; you hope at least three can be dominant.

One crack that has only grown is behind the plate. Where we thought Mitch Garver was a long-term solution, he has regressed defensively and at the plate, with little evidence, now that he is injured, that he will contribute much this year. Backups Alex Avila and Ryan Jeffers are just that: backups. Josh Donaldson is the even bigger disappointment. The biggest free-agent signing in club history, touted for home runs and defense, he did nothing before coming down with a leg injury that threatens to derail his season entirely. Byron Buxton is also hurt, as usual. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler continue to show tremendous promise, but neither has made any progress toward day-to-day reliability.

The one positive development that has surprised me is Miguel Sano’s hitting. He has gone from being an automatic strikeout to someone who punishes mistakes and lays off more close pitches than he has before. He is a liability in the field, but he generally accounts for more runs scored than allowed. He will be a useful DH once Nelson Cruz retires. Speaking of which, Cruz is the player most responsible for the Twins’ success to date–far and away their best hitter and a leader who hustles on the bases despite his age. I hope his inability to hit a curve ball thrown by Cleveland pitchers is an aberration: you trust that by age 40 he’s faced all the adjustments pitchers can make.

In sum, and this may be the result of the unusual season we’ve had, the Twins have yet to establish a personality, and they seem to be winning despite themselves. If they win two out of three, which is what happens most often, they will win one with excellent pitching and another with an offensive barrage. In the third game, no one shows up after the third inning. Their strikeout rate is also discouraging; if they put the ball in play more often, more good things could happen and the game would be more fun to watch. Still, it is fun to have the games to watch…but who knows how long even this will last.