Twins Preview ’22

Hope springs eternal, which is the main reason I’m looking forward to the Twins season. They definitely upgraded themselves in several places, notably adding Carlos Correa from the Astros at shortstop. Gio Urshela from the Yankees will be an improvement over Josh Donaldson at 3rd, if only because expectations won’t be so high. And then, of course, if Byron Buxton doesn’t get hurt, that could be the biggest plus of all.

Pitching is the biggest unknown, because the makeover is almost total. Of 16 pitchers, 13 have been added since last year’s opening day. I happen to like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, two almost-rookies who throw hard and fearlessly, but they have no track record. Sonny Gray, the new ace, had better be good. Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy have been good, but not recently. The Twins have a record of hopeful signings that don’t work out–Matt Shoemaker last year being the most recent and worst–and management must be aware of this history, for they traded for another starter, Chris Paddack from San Diego, yesterday. The Twins will go with a six-man rotation until they see which one isn’t working. (And they sent Devin Smeltzer to St. Paul, despite a flawless spring, to keep stretched out and ready.)

Jim Souhan’s Opening Day column stressed the importance of having an effective closer, citing the failures of Alex Colome last year as souring the entire 2021 season. In response, later that day the Twins traded their projected closer, Taylor Rogers, their most effective reliever the last three years. The theory must be that you don’t overpay for a “closer,” because you never know who can do the job (until you try them), and Rogers was in his free-agent year. Maybe Tyler Duffey will do the job; maybe one of the young guys will emerge; or maybe the lack of closer will torpedo the year. (Then again, if the Twins don’t get the lead, the lack of a closer is immaterial.)

As for the rest of the squad, I’m excited to see if Alex Kiriloff is the real deal. Max Kepler consistently plays below potential and I expect more of the same. Luis Arraez is a sure .300 hitter; I hope he gets to play. One option is first base, still manned by the perpetually frustrating Miguel Sano, His home runs are great, but are they worth strikeout after strikeout? I worry that putting Sano and Gary Sanchez in the lineup together will produce a black hole.

In sum, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Twins this year: Correa, Gray and Urshela represent bold moves. But when you look around the division, all the other teams seem to have improved themselves, as well, and they finished ahead of Minnesota last year. And the Twins’ Central Division is, far and away, the weak sister of the American League. So much for baseball as a zero-sum game.