Twins at Quarter Pole

Twenty-nine percent into the 2022 season it’s still impossible to gauge this year’s Twins team. It seems just as possible that they will implode as that they will maintain their five-game hold on first place, although the relative weakness of the other Central Division teams makes the latter the slightly stronger bet. The major takeaways at this point are 1. the starting rotation is much, much better than anyone predicted; 2. the relievers are at least average, often impressive but still inconsistent; 3. the hitters, thanks to Miguel Sano’s absence, can be dangerous up and down the lineup, but 4. their clutch hitting is maddeningly woeful; 5. their defense is solid but baserunning merely average; and 6. the roster’s depth is good, but limited. Finally, I can’t judge team “chemistry,” either its existence or importance, but reports in this regard are favorable.

While the Twins entered spring training with only one surefire starting pitcher, Sonny Gray, at one point last month they had eight (8!) competent choices to give them five or six shutout innings. Chris Paddack is now out for the year (and longer), making the trade that sent Major League save leader Taylor Rogers (and cash) to San Diego one of the most lopsided in team history. Josh Winder showed brilliant flashes in his first starts, and we don’t know how much his subsequent loss of effectiveness was related to the injury that has him sidelined. That leaves six, and since Rocco Baldelli is committed to a five-man rotation, one will be sacrificed once Joe Ryan comes off the Covid list. At the rate that injuries are occurring, I’m sure Rocco is thinking that this decision will be made for him. But if it is not, it is clear to me that the Twins should keep Devin Smeltzer in the rotation and see if Chris Archer can move to long-relief, pending Winder’s return. Archer hasn’t pitched past the 4th inning, he has been hurt or inactive the last two years, and, as the Kansas City announcers commented yesterday, his deliberate pace causes his fielders to fall asleep behind him, hurting their defense. It’s possible that Bailey Ober or Dylan Bundy could prove less reliable than needed, and that is probably what will determine the ultimate success or disappointment of the Twins’ year.

Among relievers, the big story is the emergence of Jhoan Duran as the Twins’ first-ever blow-em’-away reliever, meaning there’s no longer reason to follow the career of Brusdar Graterol. He’s being gradually groomed to become a shut-down closer, and there’s cause for hope that he will get even better. Except for side-arming Joe Smith, who has generally owned the 7th inning, everyone else in the bullpen has had solid stretches only to occasionally falter. I particularly like Caleb Thielbar, who can make lefty batters look foolish, but his role is perforce limited. Tyler Duffey shares late-inning regular duty with Smith, and when Duffey is on, the bridge from the starter to the closer is usually uneventful. The designated closer, more often than not, has been Emilio Pagan, obtained from San Diego for the much better Rogers. Pagan seems incapable of inducing a 1-2-3 inning, which is hard on the nerves. Like all Twins fans, I long for the moment when Duran will be ready to take over the 9th inning and, like Goose Gossage or Mariano Rivera, give us the comfortable feeling that the game is over.

In Gio Urshela and Carlos Correa, both acquired in the offseason, the Twins have a left side of the infield as good as, or better than, any in baseball. Second and first base pose more interesting questions. Jorge Polanco is fine defensively but is hitting about 80 points below his early standard (when on steroids?). Luis Arraez, a natural second-baseman, is hitting 100 points above Polanco and simply has to be a regular in the Twins lineup. So far, he’s been filling in, quite adequately, for Sano at first base; but first basemen are normally power hitters, which Arraez is not, and tall, which the 5’10” Arraez also is not. There is no way the Twins fan base will accept a return by Sano, unless perhaps he earns it by hitting a home run per game with the Saints for a protracted period. But the Twins already have two players on the Saints team who deserve to be in the Majors, Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis, who could outperform Sano and should be with the Twins soon in any case. Polanco does have a history of clutch hits, so it won’t happen; but I could see an infield of Urshela-Correa-Arraez-Kiriloff that would make me happy.

Of course, the original plan was for an outfield of Kiriloff-Buxton-Kepler, but Kiriloff’s injury and early scuffling opened the door for Trevor Larnach, who is now the Twins’ best lefthanded power hitter and a great eye. Kyle Garlick has carried over the promise he showed last year as a power threat against lefthanders and thus creates a natural platoon with Larnach, when one is not needed at DH. Fortunately, the Twins’ fortunes don’t rise and fall as much as expected with Buxton, for he has been maddeningly inconsistent, from being player-of-the-month in April to going 0-for-May. How much of this decline was caused by his knee tendinitis, how much by being “rested” every third game to protect his health? Whatever the cause, his confidence has suffered, and he has played centerfield and run the bases more hesitantly than in years past. If this is just a slump and he emerges from it, the Twins will be much stronger, but they are, in the meantime, learning to compete without his contributions. Barring injury–and he underwent an MRI yesterday–Max Kepler will remain a fixture in right field, despite the streaky nature of his hitting. There’s always the chance that he will get hot, in which case he’s a force.

As for their catchers, Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez are both adequate, nothing more. Although both will struggle to hit above .200, they are both capable of the occasional big hit. Based on the success of the pitching staff, they must be doing a competent job behind the plate, although one doesn’t expect to see either throw out a base stealer–fortunately, for the Twins, a lost art.

The Twins reserves are an interesting bunch. Because of injuries and Covid absences, they have played almost as much as some regulars and all have had moments in the sun. Gilberto Celestino has played all outfield positions, and while he doesn’t appear much of an offensive weapon he has maintained his average over .300. Nick Gordon is the most versatile and could probably acquit himself well at all nine positions. Plus, he is apparently the only Twin who knows how to put down a sacrifice bunt. One wonders if there is room for growth and improvement to the extent he replaces Eduardo Escobar as best recent Twins utility player. The third reserve currently is Jose Miranda, who showed great promise as a hitter with the Saints but who is, so far, out of his league at this level. I was among the multitude miffed by the decision to send Royce Lewis back to the minors in favor of Miranda, as Lewis clearly belonged. Long term, I have no doubt this will be corrected. Maybe sooner than long term.

PS: As the Twins approach the three-quarter pole (August 22), the above evaluation hardly needs an edit. Injuries have altered the personnel–Kiriloff, Larnach, Lewis, Ober, Winder, Jeffers and Garlick are missing–but items 1-6 are all on point. Especially “4. their clutch hitting is maddeningly woeful.” The lone improvement has come from Jose Miranda, who has shown he definitely belongs.