Twins Mid-Season Report

It’s hard to be discouraged about the Twins at mid-season, given their 20-10 record, second-best in the Majors, a winning percentage that would result in 107 victories in a normal full season. But cracks are appearing, and not just in the two losses to weak-hitting Cleveland following the mid-year mark. The first I’ve alluded to in recent posts–the lack of comeback spirit. When the Twins fall behind early, the game is invariably lost. You get the feeling they are waiting for someone to hit a home run; the idea of building a rally is foreign. Maybe that’s the result of having hit so many home runs last year; such elements of the game as hit-and-run, sacrifice bunt, stolen base are missing. They may seem trivial in today’s game, but they can build momentum, and confidence, which can’t be underrated. Every day I read in the paper of some team overcoming a 3-run deficit in the 9th inning, but never the Twins. For one thing, it makes watching their games less interesting.

Another crack may soon be filled: their starting rotation. It has been more a whirlwind than “rotation,” with the Twins throwing out a reliever to start every fourth game, relying upon up to six pitchers from the bullpen to last nine innings. This has been reasonably successful but has two drawbacks: it wears out relievers who will be needed the next day, and it limits the number of bench players available for offense. So far, the Twins have only two reliable starters: Randy Dobnak and Kenta Maeda. Jose Berrios, the supposed ace, has disappointed and doesn’t exhibit the mental toughness to go with his natural talent. Rich Hill and Jake Odorizzi could, and should, both come back from injuries to help. My biggest hope, though, is for Michael Pineda, a real bulldog, to pick up where he left off last year when his suspension expires next week. With potentially six capable starters–necessary due to the compressed schedule, including doubleheaders–the Twins could be well positioned for a stretch run. And it would allow manager Rocco Baldelli to use his large relief corps more effectively.

Tyler Duffey has been impeccable in 7th-inning service, and Taylor Rogers is more than adequate as a closer, although his effectiveness in back-to-back outings is suspect. Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo and Trevor May have all had hiccups but are reasonably reliable. Then there’s a slew of newbies who have occasionally shined; Baldelli can figure out whom to rely on once his starters start giving him six-plus innings. Jorge Alcala, Matt Wisler, Caleb Thielbar, Sean Poppen, Cody Stashak, Danny Coulombe, Devin Smeltzer – normally the roster would only carry half of this list. All have potential; you hope at least three can be dominant.

One crack that has only grown is behind the plate. Where we thought Mitch Garver was a long-term solution, he has regressed defensively and at the plate, with little evidence, now that he is injured, that he will contribute much this year. Backups Alex Avila and Ryan Jeffers are just that: backups. Josh Donaldson is the even bigger disappointment. The biggest free-agent signing in club history, touted for home runs and defense, he did nothing before coming down with a leg injury that threatens to derail his season entirely. Byron Buxton is also hurt, as usual. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler continue to show tremendous promise, but neither has made any progress toward day-to-day reliability.

The one positive development that has surprised me is Miguel Sano’s hitting. He has gone from being an automatic strikeout to someone who punishes mistakes and lays off more close pitches than he has before. He is a liability in the field, but he generally accounts for more runs scored than allowed. He will be a useful DH once Nelson Cruz retires. Speaking of which, Cruz is the player most responsible for the Twins’ success to date–far and away their best hitter and a leader who hustles on the bases despite his age. I hope his inability to hit a curve ball thrown by Cleveland pitchers is an aberration: you trust that by age 40 he’s faced all the adjustments pitchers can make.

In sum, and this may be the result of the unusual season we’ve had, the Twins have yet to establish a personality, and they seem to be winning despite themselves. If they win two out of three, which is what happens most often, they will win one with excellent pitching and another with an offensive barrage. In the third game, no one shows up after the third inning. Their strikeout rate is also discouraging; if they put the ball in play more often, more good things could happen and the game would be more fun to watch. Still, it is fun to have the games to watch…but who knows how long even this will last.