Next Year’s Twins

[fusion_text]Everyone’s a general manager these days, and I’m no exception. Rather than linger on the Twins’ surprisingly successful 2015 season – which, thankfully, finished above .500 but short of the playoffs – I am already in roster-planning mode for 2016. And what a happy prospect it is!

Start with starting pitching, the heart of a successful team. This appears to be a strength, thanks to the totally unforeseen emergence of Tyler Duffey as the team’s ace. Next, Ervin Santana came on strong and will be available for a full season. Kyle Gibson gets a little better each year, especially at home, and should be a dependable third man in the rotation, capable of a 15-win season. Then there is Jose Berrios: I’ve never seen him pitch, but if he is as good as he’s been in the minors, he will earn a spot. That leaves one opening for Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco or Trevor May – and thankfully closes the door on Mike Pelfrey. That’s an enviable competition to have, and while Hughes and Nolasco will be paid a lot of Minnesota money, whether they pitch or not, I’ll be happy if Milone emerges on top. Of course, with injuries inevitable, it would be nice to be able to stockpile one of these starters.

The relief pitching is almost as important and much more uncertain. Kevin Jepsen earned the closer role, which raises the question of Glen Perkins, who is also on the line for a large salary, awarded when he was deemed the closer for years to come. First, can he be happy as the 8th-inning setup man? More to the point, can he regain the form that totally deserted him from the All-Star Game on? Was his problem physical? Or did he lose confidence? Trevor May was the next most effective reliever, but some thought he had the greatest upside as a starter. The surplus of starters and paucity of relievers argues for keeping him in the latter role, at least for now. The rest are journeymen, and you never know who among them will have a good year. Every season the Twins pick up someone who surprises – a Casey Fien, a Blaine Boyer – so it’s foolish at this distance to predict who that will be in 2016. I do think, however, the string has run out on Brian Duensing; and I expect to see J.R. Graham getting more minor league experience now that his Rule 5 year has passed.

The biggest issue on the offensive side is, what to do with Joe Mauer? He is vastly overpaid, and will be for three years, and has lost almost all his fan support. His lack of power for a first baseman is embarrassing, his unchangingly mild demeanor is frustrating, his play in the field is average, at best, and when he hits .260 instead of .320 you wonder what he is doing smack in the middle of the lineup day after day. If you could get him to catch again, even part-time, it would provide an upgrade over what’s there now. Trevor Plouffe at first would offer better defense, more power, and the chance to play Miguel Sano at third. Kennys Vargas is another possibility at first, but he would have to hit more consistently than he did this year.

Brian Dozier will be the second baseman, although one hopes he can be taught to hit to right and not wear down as the season progresses. It is hard not to think that his early success make him homer-happy, which led to a plethora of strikeouts and groundballs to short. Eduardo Escobar solidified the shortstop position, and Plouffe or Sano will man third. Kurt Suzuki slipped some at catcher and clearly needs better relief than Hermann or Fryer could provide.

The outfield, too, is interesting. Pencil in Eddie Rosario for the next ten years. Beyond that, if Aaron Hicks can take another step forward, as he did this season, he’s the centerfielder. Byron Buxton was brought up prematurely when Hicks was hurt and the team was floundering; he needs, and deserves, a year at AAA (which he’s never had) learning how to hit breaking balls. Should the Twin bring back Torii Hunter? It depends on who else is available. As of now, I’d say yes. I don’t know if Max Kepler, the Twins’ minor league player of the year, is ready to start in the majors. I’d certainly take Hunter over this year’s fourth outfielder, Shane Robinson.

That’s what I’d do with the present roster. Maybe the Twins can trade Plouffe or Hughes for a catcher, reliever or outfielder, and I have no idea what free agents will be on the market. That’s what will make the winter interesting, that – more than the Timberwolves or Wild – will keep me turning to the Strib’s sports pages. And in only four months spring training will begin…

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