Next Year’s Twins

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[fusion_text]Everyone’s a general manager these days, and I’m no exception. Rather than linger on the Twins’ surprisingly successful 2015 season – which, thankfully, finished above .500 but short of the playoffs – I am already in roster-planning mode for 2016. And what a happy prospect it is!

Start with starting pitching, the heart of a successful team. This appears to be a strength, thanks to the totally unforeseen emergence of Tyler Duffey as the team’s ace. Next, Ervin Santana came on strong and will be available for a full season. Kyle Gibson gets a little better each year, especially at home, and should be a dependable third man in the rotation, capable of a 15-win season. Then there is Jose Berrios: I’ve never seen him pitch, but if he is as good as he’s been in the minors, he will earn a spot. That leaves one opening for Phil Hughes, Tommy Milone, Ricky Nolasco or Trevor May – and thankfully closes the door on Mike Pelfrey. That’s an enviable competition to have, and while Hughes and Nolasco will be paid a lot of Minnesota money, whether they pitch or not, I’ll be happy if Milone emerges on top. Of course, with injuries inevitable, it would be nice to be able to stockpile one of these starters.

The relief pitching is almost as important and much more uncertain. Kevin Jepsen earned the closer role, which raises the question of Glen Perkins, who is also on the line for a large salary, awarded when he was deemed the closer for years to come. First, can he be happy as the 8th-inning setup man? More to the point, can he regain the form that totally deserted him from the All-Star Game on? Was his problem physical? Or did he lose confidence? Trevor May was the next most effective reliever, but some thought he had the greatest upside as a starter. The surplus of starters and paucity of relievers argues for keeping him in the latter role, at least for now. The rest are journeymen, and you never know who among them will have a good year. Every season the Twins pick up someone who surprises – a Casey Fien, a Blaine Boyer – so it’s foolish at this distance to predict who that will be in 2016. I do think, however, the string has run out on Brian Duensing; and I expect to see J.R. Graham getting more minor league experience now that his Rule 5 year has passed.

The biggest issue on the offensive side is, what to do with Joe Mauer? He is vastly overpaid, and will be for three years, and has lost almost all his fan support. His lack of power for a first baseman is embarrassing, his unchangingly mild demeanor is frustrating, his play in the field is average, at best, and when he hits .260 instead of .320 you wonder what he is doing smack in the middle of the lineup day after day. If you could get him to catch again, even part-time, it would provide an upgrade over what’s there now. Trevor Plouffe at first would offer better defense, more power, and the chance to play Miguel Sano at third. Kennys Vargas is another possibility at first, but he would have to hit more consistently than he did this year.

Brian Dozier will be the second baseman, although one hopes he can be taught to hit to right and not wear down as the season progresses. It is hard not to think that his early success make him homer-happy, which led to a plethora of strikeouts and groundballs to short. Eduardo Escobar solidified the shortstop position, and Plouffe or Sano will man third. Kurt Suzuki slipped some at catcher and clearly needs better relief than Hermann or Fryer could provide.

The outfield, too, is interesting. Pencil in Eddie Rosario for the next ten years. Beyond that, if Aaron Hicks can take another step forward, as he did this season, he’s the centerfielder. Byron Buxton was brought up prematurely when Hicks was hurt and the team was floundering; he needs, and deserves, a year at AAA (which he’s never had) learning how to hit breaking balls. Should the Twin bring back Torii Hunter? It depends on who else is available. As of now, I’d say yes. I don’t know if Max Kepler, the Twins’ minor league player of the year, is ready to start in the majors. I’d certainly take Hunter over this year’s fourth outfielder, Shane Robinson.

That’s what I’d do with the present roster. Maybe the Twins can trade Plouffe or Hughes for a catcher, reliever or outfielder, and I have no idea what free agents will be on the market. That’s what will make the winter interesting, that – more than the Timberwolves or Wild – will keep me turning to the Strib’s sports pages. And in only four months spring training will begin…

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A Stupid Rule

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When I think of stupid rules in sports, I usually land on the golf course, where plenty of rules designed to add strokes to my score – usually involving the ball hitting a foreign object – are a mystery, both as to scope and necessity. This week, however, the NFL introduced us to a rule in football that seems to exist for no good reason, which seemingly no one knew about, yet which, if enforced, would have changed the outcome of a game. Briefly put: when a Lions receiver fumbled on the one-foot line, the loose ball was punched out of the end zone by a Seahawk player, resulting, per the officials, in a touchback with the ball going over to Seattle on the 20. Game over, Seahawk victory. What the game officials, coaches, players and TV announcers did not know was a rule prescribing a 10-yard penalty against a team that intentionally knocks a live ball out of bounds. If understood and applied, this rule would have resulted in the Lions’ retaining possession on the six-inch line, with a high probability of scoring a touchdown on the next play, for Detroit’s first win of the year.

After the game, ESPN’s officiating analyst pointed out the rule and said it had been on the books for the 26 years he had been an official. This resulted in much gnashing-of-teeth by Detroit fans and much incredulity by the players involved, who had never heard of this rule, but complaints by coaches and players and national outrage was rather muted because, I submit, everyone realizes what a stupid rule this is. In fact, the hubbub would have been significantly greater, I have to believe, if an official had, in fact, called the penalty and the Lions gone on to a victory that most would feel was not deserved.

What is the reason for such a rule? It’s not player safety – the reason behind so many recent rule changes. Punching the ball out of bounds avoids unnecessary physical contact. Does it give the offending team an unfair advantage? It does eliminate the need to control a loose ball, so maybe it eliminates an act of skill that should be required? And maybe it interferes with the other team’s chances of recovering the fumble.

(At this point, I should admit that I do not know the various permutations of the rule in question. Does it matter which team bats the ball out of bounds? How does batting it out of bounds on the sidelines compare to batting it out in the end zone? Is change-of-possession affected only when it is the defense doing the batting – and if so, is that fair? Or is possession affected only when the bat occurs in the end zone?)

In the incident in question, there was no Detroit player in the vicinity when the ball was batted, and the Seahawk defender could just as easily have caught the ball or fallen on it. Why reward Detroit? Perhaps there is room for a rule that says, if in the referee’s judgment a player’s batting the ball out of bounds prevented the other team from recovering it, that player’s team shall be penalized ten yards. There is already room for the referee’s judgment in the current rule, as the official has to determine that the batting was intentional, not inadvertent; so adding judicial discretion is not new.

The important thing for the rule – for any rule – is that it not change the game 180 degrees from what would have happened if the act precipitating the penalty had not occurred. Rules should facilitate the normal flow of the contest, not reverse it.

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Rule Change at Second Base

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[fusion_text]The playoff-bound Pittsburgh Pirates lost their star rookie shortstop for the season when his leg was hit by the base runner’s slide. Even though the shortstop was several feet away from the base, the slide was legal because the runner reached the bag with his outstretched hand while his feet were colliding with the shortstop. This is traditionally known as “breaking up the double play” and is equally traditionally applauded in the dugout as a hustle play. There is already some talk that this kind of slide should be prohibited. To me, the decision to implement a rule change accomplishing this is a no-brainer.

Unlike football, going after an opponent’s body is not part of the game of baseball. Making a runner slide directly at the base, unless he is trying to avoid a tag, takes nothing away from the offense. A well-turned double play is one of the prettiest defensive plays in baseball and deserves facilitation, not obstruction. And the most important argument for a change is to reduce the chance of serious injury. This was deemed reason enough to institute a rule eliminating most collisions at home plate, and this rule would be much easier to enforce than that one.

A secondary benefit of such a rule could be the elimination of the so-called “neighborhood” rule, in which the pivot man does not need to be in contact with second base when he catches the ball on a double play. This is a terrible rule, because it leaves so much to the umpire’s discretion: how far off second can the fielder be, no one knows or is saying. The main reason for this rule is to allow the pivot man to avoid injury from the onrushing runner. If the runner is prohibited from going after the fielder, there is less reason for this questionable protection. Before instant replay, it was often difficult to know for sure that the fielder’s foot had left the bag before the ball reached his glove; but with replay now available, that can be determined beyond argument.

In sum, I see no reason – other than the hoary one of “tradition” – to continue allowing baserunners to slide into fielders who are away from the bag, and I expect that the owners and union will quickly come to the same conclusion.[/fusion_text]

Golf and Twins

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[fusion_text]I have discovered a thread common to two of my hobbies: playing golf and watching the Twins. It is this: something always goes wrong, and what that is constantly changes. If I’m putting well, my driving is off; if my irons are good, my chipping lets me down. Etc. For the Twins, two weeks ago their starting pitching was horrible – an ERA around 6.00 – but their relievers, who had to pitch the majority of innings, held the opposition scoreless, giving the Twins chances to come back, which they sometimes did and sometimes didn’t. Last week, the starters found their groove again, but the relievers fell apart. One day Casey Fien, who had pitched 12 scoreless innings, turned a win into a loss by giving up a 3-run homer. The next day, formerly surprisingly good closer Kevin Jepsen gave up a home run and then loaded the bases before escaping with a 3-2 win. And for the series finale, Trevor May entered in the 7th with two outs and a 2-0 lead and left with the same two outs and a 5-2 deficit. Completing the picture, Neal Cotts gave up a three-run homer, making the Twins’ next three runs academic. It seems that when Escobar-Rosario-Suzuki hit, the top of the order flails, and vice versa. We know that this uncertainty is what makes baseball fun, and why the “better” team still loses one out of three, if they’re lucky. And I heard today the famous saying that “golf is not a game of perfect.” The above is fairly obvious, but it is just now that I have made this connection.[/fusion_text]

Twins Resurgent

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[fusion_text]Of all the times this year I have given up on the Twins, counted them out for the year, been resigned to their mediocrity, perhaps none was as premature as last night. After erupting for four runs against White Sox ace Chris Sale in the second inning, the Twins were coasting at home. Rookie starter Tyler Duffey had faced 14 batters and gotten 14 outs. He didn’t get another. His three straight walks were demoralizing; then a bloop double and home run off two different relievers in the sixth inning left the Twins suddenly trailing, 5-4, in a game they should have, and had to, win. Barely hanging onto the final wild-card berth, a loss here to start September would surely spell doom.

Then, like a bolt from Thor, the game turned back on one swing from Miguel Sano, the biggest reason these Twins may no longer be the fluke they have seemed for much of the summer. After tying the game in the seventh, the Twins broke it open with three runs in the eighth with a good bunt by Suzuki, baserunning by Buxton and even a “clutch” hit by Mauer. This presented Glen Perkins with another gift “save,” in which he allowed three hits and one run and didn’t miss a bat all night. The Twins are alive for one more day, playing “meaningful” games in September. Who would have thought?

The quotation marks above point me to three final thoughts. The resurgent Twins have been powered by their new players, Sano, Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar, with admirable fill-in play from Eduardo Nunez. The veterans Dozier, Plouffe and Suzuki have been steady, although hitting a combined .240-something. The one player who hasn’t been leading is Joe Mauer, who is taking down more salary than the rest of the starting lineup combined. He chips in with singles and rbi’s and a .275 average that would be respectable for a catcher or a power hitter, but he is neither. Furthermore, he is under that contract for three more years, posing the question of what the Twins will do with him as their young stars mature. He is merely adequate as a first baseman, a position either Sano or Plouffe could fill with power.

Perkins’s save was too similar to almost all his outings since (and including) the All-Star Game. His first two blown saves crushed the team’s spirit – based on their play in the games that followed – and were both among the times I wrote them off for the year. Maybe his sore neck was responsible, but if he was healthy last night he didn’t look much better. By contrast, Yankees closer Andrew Miller struck out the side in his ninth inning, which is the kind of confidence-inspiring performance you want from a closer. Complicating, but perhaps helping, the situation is the emergence of both Trevor May and Kevin Jepsen as shut-down relievers. Jepsen fared well in Perkins’s absence, but what will allow Paul Molitor to use him in place of Perkins now that Perkins is back?

Finally, I should add some perspective to the meaningfulness of the Twins’ September. Yes, they could sneak into the wild-card game, although Texas, with Cole Hamels, should have an edge over Minnesota’s unpredictable starting staff. But is this any better than making the NBA Playoffs as the eighth seed from the Eastern Conference? The Twins don’t have an ace to play in the one-game wild-card playoff. And if they survive that – seemingly against the Yankees, who have dominated them – they would run into the Blue Jays, Astros or Royals, all of whom are playing on a different level. Still, it could be a good learning experience for the rookies to build on in 2016; so I will continue to watch and hope.

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Backyard Birding

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[fusion_text]Inspired by a chance encounter with a Pacific Coast Flycatcher in the olive grove next to our guest house I decided to head outside before breakfast – not that early, but, at 7:30, before the neighborhood chain saws and power drills whirr into action. From the back terrace I was rewarded with the sight of two black-capped Wilson’s Warblers hopping around some echium bushes. I wandered down to see the flowering agave in the cactus garden and the four or five Anna’s hummingbirds flitting in and out. To my pleasant surprise a male and female Hooded Oriole landed on the agave spike. They quickly departed, but I was thrilled with their visit. I had seen them in the two tall palms that came with our house, but since the palms’ removal I hadn’t seen any orioles here. The sighting of these unusual species, after watching a blue-grey gnatcatcher in my bottlebrush tree the week before, convinced me to start my Yard List, which I will do once I determine where to keep it.

A short p.s. on the Wilson’s Warblers: seeing a pair together, I assumed they would be male and female, but seeing bold black caps on both I wavered, thinking the cap was exclusive to the female. Turning to Sibley for elucidation, my uncertainty continued. He pictures a first-year female without black cap but says or shows nothing about a mature female. My other guides are similarly vague, leaving me to conclude that the female may or may not have as bold a black cap as the male, and thinking it probably was both hanging together in my echium.[/fusion_text]

Surprising Twins at the Break

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Since I have written off the Twins twice already, I owe them a positive notice at the traditional midsummer break, which finds them with the third best record in the entire American League. Regardless of what transpires the rest of the year, I applaud them from turning a projected wasted year into a season of captivating baseball. For many reasons, the Twins have been fun to watch.

1. The starting rotation is amazingly better than last year’s. I’ll bet the Twins pitchers have recorded more “quality starts” by mid-July than they logged all last season. That means that, win or lose, the Twins are in almost every game. There is no Chris Sale or David Price ace, but Tommy Milone and Kyle Gibson have been solid, limiting the opposition to a run here, a run there, nothing more. Phil Hughes hasn’t been the number one starter he was last year, but both he and Mike Pelfrey are good for six innings more often than not. Trevor May has shown the potential to pair with Gibson for years to come, while his replacement, Ervin Santana, has the look of a competent pitcher in his two starts, one good, one bad.

2. Rookies have been a surprise. Principally, this means Eddie Rosario, who was called up as an injury replacement and has shown no sign of ever leaving. He hits lefties and righties and uses all fields and is a wonderful defensive upgrade from Oswaldo Arcia, who started the year in left. It’s too soon to declare Miguel Sano as established, but he sure looks comfortable and has shown the power the Twins sorely lacked. Both he and Byron Buxton were projected as late-season callups once the race was over, but both vaulted up much sooner from Double-A. In Buxton’s case, it may be premature: he looked lost against breaking pitches before he was injured and he was thrown out both times he tried to steal; but his athleticism is obvious and there is hope he can still develop as a hitter (see the following).

3. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe have gone from mediocre hole-pluggers to legitimate Major League regulars, the kind we saw on teams in the ’50s. Both have solidified the Twins’ infield defense and, pending Sano’s emergence, represent what passes for power on the Twins. Dozier’s walk-off homer against Detroit, when the Twins came back from 6-1 down in the ninth, just may have given his team the confidence it needs to contend this year. It certainly sparked them to wins against the Tigers the next two days, turning around the psychology of that important matchup.

4. Everyone is chipping in. The Twins are just as likely to get runs from the bottom of the lineup as the middle. Eduardo Escobar, Eduardo Nunez, Rosario and even the formerly forlorn Aaron Hicks have all contributed to the offense. Other days it is Torii Hunter, Dozier and Plouffe. Joe Mauer is having another terrible year and leads the league in warning-track outs, but somehow is the team’s statistical leader in hitting with runners in scoring position.

5. Torii Hunter has given the team a personality. We don’t get to see them dancing in the locker room after wins, but we do see the three outfielders’ synchronized leap at game’s end and you get the feeling that everybody gets along and is having fun playing the game.

A lot could go wrong in the second half. Dozier and Plouffe, who are irreplaceable, could go into prolonged slumps. Opposing pitchers could discover a flaw in Sano’s swing. Hunter will turn 40. Once any of the pitchers starts to get pummeled, they could all lose confidence. Perkins has been perfect in save opportunities, but he is hardly unhittable. And just as the Royals have lost Alex Gordon and the Tigers Miguel Cabrera, someone could get hurt, exposing the Twins’ lack of depth. But I’ll take my chances; there are enough good story lines to follow and whatever the Twins do, I’ll be watching.

All-Star Idiocy

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[fusion_text]I voted 32 times for Brian Dozier to be added to the All-Star roster. Needless to say, he was outpolled by the Kansas City Royal he was up against (forget the other three). Why Major League Baseball would nominate a Royal as one of five nominees for the final fan-selected spot boggles the mind, when six Royals have already been chosen by the fans and made a mockery of the fan-selection process. But more fundamentally, I am left to wonder who decided that every fan – or more accurately, every computer account – should be able to vote 35 times! What happened to one man, one vote? Do we think this encourages fan involvement with the game when someone has to sit at his computer and press the vote button 35 times? Or does MLB think we will be impressed when the number of votes is in the hundreds of thousands?

Clearly, this whole process is ripe for reconsideration. I would let the fans vote – once each – but have their selection count as one-third the total. Let the players vote and have their vote count a third. As for the tie-breaker, an SI writer suggested giving a vote to the GMs, as the most knowledgeable authorities. I would rather give the vote to baseball beat writers – that would, at least, add some journalistic interest. If no one receives a majority – i.e., if each constituency votes for a different player – then let the fans reign supreme.[/fusion_text]

Twins Fall Fast

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[fusion_text]One week after the Twins had the best record in the American League they are falling toward mediocrity, and maybe more. When they were in first I had no idea, as I suggested in a previous post, what they were doing there. As for why they have lost four straight, with more to come, the answer is obvious: they are just not that good. More particularly, their offense was a mirage that has now evaporated. When your only hitter with double-digit home runs is your leadoff batter (after 60 games) you know there’s a power shortage. Then throw in .260 averages for your best regulars, including number-three hitter Joe Mauer, and the lack of run production is totally predictable.

The Twins’ starting pitching has been remarkably good. Without an established ace, the starters are churning out quality start after quality start. All that accomplishes, though, is putting the spotlight on the sputtering attack. Earlier in the season, things were going so well that we didn’t mind that hopes-of-the-future Buxton and Sano were still down in Double-A. Now, however, I am dying to see Buxton, at least, called up, if only so I don’t have to watch Aaron Hicks suffer. The relief pitching has been fine, but that only helps when the team is ahead (which is the only time Molitor will use his best: Boyer, Fien and Perkins). Now that Stauffer is gone, there is only Duensing to be cleared out. Oh, and they have to figure out what to do with Nolasco. It would be nice if another team wanted him.[/fusion_text]

Twins in First

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[fusion_text]I must acknowledge the Twins’ appearance, however fleeting, at the top of the AL East standings (5/28/15). This represents an extraordinary turnaround from their disastrous first week when I, and many others more informed than I, wrote them off for the season. It is also a surprise to the national prognosticators who uniformly picked the Twins to finish in the cellar for a third (or is it a fourth?) consecutive season.

How have they done it?, is the question, and despite watching many recent games on MLB.TV, I have no answer. They lack a power hitter, and no regular is batting over, or even close to, .300. Their defense is solid, if pedestrian. Their one historic All-Star, Joe Mauer, plays a power position, first base, but has one home run. Their relievers, with the exception of closer Glen Perkins, are pitchers I’d never heard of. Perkins, it is true, is 18 for 18 in save situations, but he’s been doing more like Eddie Guardado than Mariano Rivera.

The most obvious group that should be credited with the Twins’ resurgence is the starting rotation. Again, though, there is no dominant pitcher and no breakout star. In fact, the one pitcher who was supposed to anchor the rotation, Ervin Santana, will not join the team for another month because of his drug suspension. Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, May and Pelfrey have all looked terrible at times, but seemingly on cue they have all begun to build comfortably winning records. Perhaps they realize that the first to falter will be replaced by Santana, if not an original member of the rotation, Tommy Milone, who is tearing up Triple-A.

The best explanation I can offer comes down to the intangible that may be the most important difference between winning and losing in sports, and that is confidence. Once the Twins started winning with their anonymous lineup, they began to believe they should be winning and the cycle kept repeating itself. Maybe this came from the positive spirit brought in by Torii Hunter. Maybe it’s due to new manager Paul Molitor. Maybe the critical mass of Latin players who relaxed each other. Who knows? The next question is, what will happen when the inevitable losing streak arrives? Will the confidence crumble and the wheels fall off, exposing the obvious talent deficiencies?

All I know for sure (and the same thing has been stated by the reporters and broadcasters covering the team) is that the Twins have become a fun team to watch and made me cautiously optimistic, but no more, about the summer of baseball to come.

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