People frequently ask for my Oscar predictions or preferences, so I will hazard the latter. The New York Times, among others, takes the fun and guesswork out of the former by polling voters and announcing results that tend to be more accurate than they are for the political elections.
To my mind, Trial of the Chicago 7 and Nomadland were the only two films from 2021 that I could unequivocally recommend, and I would award them the major prizes. Aaron Sorkin did his usual masterful job of screenwriting, weaving together distinct personalities, informal debate and courtroom testimony into the most traditional, but satisfying, story arc. I give him the Original Screenplay Award as well as the Big Kahuna, Best Picture. Chloe Zhao is a shoo-in for Best Director, not only for coaxing drama out of an undramatic story but for getting memorable turns out of real-life, non-actor nomads. She also deserves some of the credit when Frances McDormand is named Best Actress and Joshua James Richards wins for Best Cinematography.
Best Actor has been conceded to Chadwick Boseman, with sympathy for his untimely passing muting any possible contest with Riz Ahmed. My two caveats are that Delroy Lindo of Da 5 Bloods would be my choice if he were nominated, and Boseman’s portrayal of James Brown in Get On Up was less recognized but even more deserving. McDormand should win Best Actress in a unanimous decision.
Supporting Actor is easy for me, but harder for the voters. Sacha Baron Cohen was brilliant in Chicago 7–so unlike his Borat role that I didn’t recognize him at first. He commanded the screen but never overpowered the ensemble. Daniel Kaluuya is the favorite but not with me. For 1., I couldn’t understand what he said half the time, unlike the rest of the Judas and the Black Messiah cast, who articulated just fine. 2. I consider his a lead role, not supporting. He is the featured face in every ad for the movie; and if a movie about the murder of Fred Hampton isn’t about Fred Hampton, who is it? The producers tried to make Lakeith Stanfield the “lead,” but the Oscar nominators put him in the Supporting category as well. As one observer noted, “if Kaluuya and Stanfield are both supporting actors, who is the lead?” In fact, both were co-leads, and Jesse Plemons should not only be deemed a supporting actor but should have gotten an Oscar nod for his performance.
For Supporting Actress, I give the nod by default to Olivia Colman based on past performance, since The Father, alone in the Oscar field, has not been released on streaming yet.
For Adapted Screenplay, I’m happy to go with Nomadland, although White Tiger, from left field, could be more deserving. I have no idea what the Borat screenplay could be “adapted” from. It was a hilarious movie, but it’s hard to believe it even had a screenplay.
International Feature Films were a marvelous collection of cross-cultural experiences. Quo Vadis, Aida?  was simply a great film, with a serious subject and sensational acting. It wins my award, but Better Days is not far behind. I haven’t seen the Tunisian film yet.
The only other category I qualify for is Best Documentary. I didn’t like Collective, Time or Crip Camp, so that leaves two cute, lightweight foreign films, My Octopus Teacher and The Mole Agent. The former got a lot more play, while the latter was more original–a fun choice that I doubt the Academy members will be making. I like nature docs, but when you come down to it, despite the somewhat tortured psychological overlay, that’s what Octopus was, so I’ll go with the Mole.
These are the films and artists I hope win, but just as important to me are the ones I hope will lose, which is mainly Mank. Somehow it garnered the most nominations, although no one I know has claimed to like it. In fact, many, like me, actively disliked it. If it were to be shut out of awards entirely, I would consider the night a success. The other most overrated nominee is the Romanian Collective, which remarkably was nominated in two categories: Documentary and International Feature. Perhaps it is the pleasure of seeing a Communist country exposed as corrupt that has drawn such attention, but I found the story disjointed and the technique amateurish. I also disagreed with the critics about One Night in Miami. I was relieved to see that it wasn’t nominated for Best Picture or Director. I was still amazed that it was nominated for Adapted Screenplay, as it played so much like the stage play it originally was. In most years, Promising Young Woman would be considered an average film, although Carey Mulligan is a deserving Best Actress nominee, as are all the women so nominated. That, to me, is the strongest category of the night.
PS: Today (3/21) the L.A. Times ran a piece about the Oscar nominees from 20 years ago. Their point was to assess what the voters had gotten right or wrong, in hindsight, and what deserving films and actors were overlooked. For me, however, the point was how weak this year’s nominees are in comparison. Gladiator (Russell Crowe) took home the Oscar; the other nominees were Erin Brockovich (Julia Roberts), Chocolat (Juliette Binoche), Traffic (Benicio del Toro), and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Zhang Ziyi). It’s hard for me to see any of the 2020 nominated films breaking into that lineup.