Oscar Preview

Having already given my pronouncements on the Best Picture race – for me, it should be Winter’s Bone over Black Swan, by a neck – it is time to look at the individual awards. The pundits are almost unanimous in predicting the actual winners, so I will instead give an analysis of whom I would vote for, and why, if I had a ballot.
Best Actor Jesse Eisenberg is Oscar-worthy for his compelling and quite tricky portrayal of a real live contemporary as a socially destructive inventor, someone who operates outside the social norms we require yet remains sympathetic. The performance also impresses as a stretch from the goofy, lovestruck nerd Eisenberg played so well last year in Adventureland. This is not a normal year, however, and he will be blown away by Colin Firth, who is even more dominant in his movie and carries off the acting magic of convincingly stammering the entire film. Furthermore, Firth’s performance last year, in A Single Man, far outshone Eisenberg’s, and you feel that, as the more mature actor, this is his turn to win. Finally, Colin Firth is so good-looking and articulate that you just want to see him on stage giving the acceptance speech.
[Caveat: I have not seen Javier Bardem’s movie.]
Best Actress Natalie Portman gets points for playing a tragic role, points for her physical sacrifice (losing 20 pounds to get in character), and points for performing her own “stunts,” the dance scenes. Moreover, she’s a wonderful actress, with a long string of varying roles at her early age. Black Swan is her vehicle, and she rides it to perfection. Her only challenger, according to press accounts, is Annette Bening, but her performance left me indifferent, if not cold. Jennifer Lawrence did a wonderful job, but with no body of prior work and in a film that no one saw she is not in the competition. If she had been nominated, I would be tempted to cast my vote for Anne Hathaway in Love & Other Drugs, a baring performance in every sense; but I will be content to watch her MC the broadcast.
[Caveat: I have not seen Rabbit Hole, but Nicole Kidman, however talented, is not a favorite of mine.]
Supporting Actor This is a two-man race, and it is not the two that people are talking about. First off, Geoffrey Rush has no business appearing in the “supporting” category. King’s Speech is a two-person drama, and it is, in fact, Lionel Logue’s equality with King George VI that is the crux of the movie. Rush and Firth both belong in the Best Actor category, just as Bening and Julianne Moore shared best actress nominations at the Golden Globes. Christian Bale, the odds-on favorite, gives a remarkable performance, in the style of Brando or DeNiro. But for me, his performance was distracting, not supporting. “Look at me act!,” he seemed to shout every time he was onscreen. The truly supporting performances that mesmerized me were turned in by Jeremy Renner and John Hawkes. Each added a hard, sinister edge to his movie and, rather than acting, came across as totally authentic. Neither took the spotlight away from the star – Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lawrence, respectively – but both added heft, and a touch of terror, to the screen worlds they inhabited. If I had to choose? I couldn’t.
Supporting Actress Here again I will go with the consensus: Melissa Leo performed a similar service to The Fighter that Renner and Hawkes did to their films. As touching as Leo was in Frozen River, she was that tough here. Amy Adams, one of my favorites, held her own in arguably a more nuanced role, but it was Leo who set the appropriate tone; if Mark Wahlberg was too bland and Bale too showy, Leo was the anchor, the perfect bridge between the Hollywood actors and the common folk of Lowell. As for Hailee Steinfeld, she has apparently been nominated in the Supporting category because of her age and inexperience. By any measure – dialogue, screentime, narrative pivot – she is the lead performer in True Grit, far more essential than Jeff Bridges, who was somehow nominated in the Leading Actor group.
[Caveat: I have not seen Jacki Weaver. I should also add props to Leslie Manville, although again if she is a “supporting” actor, one wonders who the lead is. That is the dilemma of a true ensemble piece like Another Year.]
I know nothing about the non-acting awards, but it seems neither do other voters, who tend to cast ballots for whichever film they liked the most. So, among my choices would be:
Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech
Documentary Feature – Exit Through the Gift Shop
Film Editing – The Fighter
Sound Editing – Inception