Archive for category: Twins

The sad thing about the Twins’ losing three games in a row to the Yankees was their non-competitive nature. Playoff baseball can be exciting and instructive, something to think about and hash over, and a five-game series – as we’re seeing in all three other division match-ups – can be an emotional rollercoaster. I fully expected the Twins to fall to the Bronx Bombers, but I hoped the games would be fun to watch. Not so much.
Nothing about their playoff pusillanimity – 16 straight losses over the last decade – can diminish the pleasure the Twins gave me during the season. Never before have I so enjoyed home runs (usually I’m a triples, hit-and-run, bunt and steal kind of guy) or been so continually surprised by a team’s resilience. Every time I thought the collapse had arrived, the Twins got up off the mattress, seemingly unconcerned by their fans’ lack of faith, and rattled off a couple of solid wins to right the ship. Their winning style was fairly consistent: bang some home runs in the early or middle innings, then mix-and-match relief pitchers for the final four innings to hold on for the win. Usually the opposition was sufficiently demoralized and the Twins’ lead held up. There were almost no walk-off wins – none at all until the last third of the season, I believe – and not a lot of scrappy rallies. The variety came from who would hit the home runs that day.
The starting pitching was surprisingly good in the season’s first half (Martin Perez!) and perhaps unsurprisingly bad in the second half (Martin Perez!), while the relievers were just the opposite. After a wholesale roster purge – gone were Magill, Hildenberger, Parker, M—— the Twins settled on a relatively reliable procession of Duffey, May, Romo and Rogers to navigate the latter innings of close games, while giving a fleet of rookies a chance to handle the innings in blow-outs. As a result, the Twins look fairly set for relievers as they enter the 2020 season. The starting rotation is a different matter.
I have never been sold on Jose Berrios as the staff ace he’s been anointed. I wonder if he might have fared better against the Yankees starting Game Two. Jake Odorizzi was clearly the more mature, consistently competent starter this year, and I hope the Twins will sign him for next year. Beyond that the field is open. No one is talking about Michael Pineda, who looked formidable before his drug suspension. Will the Twins want him back? Kyle Gibson has been frustrating for too many seasons to be counted on again, and Perez inspires no confidence. Will one of the rookies step up: Graterol? Smeltzer? Someone I haven’t heard of?
Which brings me to Luis Arraez, whom I had never heard of when this year started but who firmly established himself as the Twins’ best hitter – in the playoffs as well as the regular season. Writing him in ink as the full-time second baseman and leadoff hitter is a great way to start looking forward to next year. The other two who performed well against New York should also be fixtures, with caveats. Jorge Polanco, the Twins’ All-Star shortstop, is a professional hitter. His lack of arm strength makes one wish he could play second base, but Arraez is there. Eddie Rosario is the most fun Twin to watch, by far. Some confuse his flamboyance with lacadaise, but when he gets hot he can carry the team. Jim Souhan in the Strib recently suggested trading Rosario for a starting pitcher, but if the Twins are to trade a hitter, I’d rather it be Miguel Sano.
Sano continues to infuriate me, almost as much for his attitude and immaturity as for his strikeouts. I heard that he had the highest “exit-velocity” of any hitter, which may just indicate that he swings for the fences every at bat. His nonchalance when striking out seems to suggest a belief that striking out is okay, so long as he hits a mammoth home run every three games. I will concede that he won a few games for the Twins; but I will never enjoy watching someone appear so helpless at the plate, missing pitches by six inches, even fanning on fastballs down the middle. If there weren’t hanging curves, he wouldn’t be in the Majors.
As for the rest, I hope Max Kessler will continue to improve when he won’t have to hit lead-off, and C.J. Cron will anchor first base, injury-free. The biggest question mark, as it has been for five years, will be Byron Buxton. Can he avoid injury? Can he learn, and be willing, to bunt? By themselves, those two things would improve the Twins’ chances immeasurably.
But all these questions can wait…until pitchers and catchers report next February.

On an off-day in the Twins’ pennant race, it is useful to look at the longer-term future of the club – specifically, who will be on the roster next year. Most of the starters will be back (except to the extent Jonathan Schoop is considered a starter), which means the competition will again be for the three or four backup spots. This is where it gets interesting, for the Twins have three almost identical players who will be fighting for one or more of those spots, and their names all start with ‘A’! Willians Astudillo established himself early in the year as a fan favorite – La Tortuga – for his hustle and the fact that he swings at every strike and rarely misses. Like his competitors, he was used in both the infield and outfield, but unlike them he also catches, which makes him an especially valuable property. Luis Arraez wasn’t even on the radar screen when the season started, but injuries to Astudillo and the Twins’ middle infielders gave him a chance, which he took advantage of by hitting .500 for a month. He now plays almost regularly and has the lowest strikeout rate on the team, if not the league. Before Astudillo and Arraez flashed, Ehire Adrianza was considered the essential utility piece on the roster. After a so-so first half, he has become a dangerous hitter when given the chance to play; and to my eyes he is a better defensive player than the other A’s. In fact, he is probably a better shortstop than the incumbent, Jorge Polanco, who should be a second baseman – except that is Arraez’s natural position for now, further complicating the picture.
Partly because they are so similar, there really isn’t room for all three, although any or all of the three fully deserve to be on a big-league roster. The other pieces currently in the puzzle are Jason Castro – maybe expendable if Astudillo is an adequate backup catcher; Jake Cave – the only legitimate outfield substitute, with both speed and power potential the others lack; and Marwin Gonzalez, who is perfectly adequate everywhere and has the most experience. Assuming Schoop is released (a safe assumption), second base will open up for Arraez. Assuming Castro is not re-signed, Astudillo becomes the second catcher. That leaves at least one roster spot for either Gonzalez, at a much higher salary, or Cave, who still has room to improve. Or someone else – a minor leaguer or free agent – who’s not in the picture this year. Interestingly, the Twins could have avoided this whole situation had they not recklessly traded away (for nothing) Eduardo Escobar in the middle of last year’s lost season. Escobar was sent to Arizona and so far this year has 102 rbi’s, 15 more than anybody on the Twins. We could see the same thing happen with Adrianza.

Fifty games is less than a third of a baseball season, yet it seems a milestone that the record-keepers are noting; so it presents a good opportunity to assess, nay gloat, in the Twins’ remarkable start to 2019. They have the best record in the majors, albeit only a half-game ahead of the Yankees, and lead their division by an astounding 9 games, which speaks equally to the ineptitude of the AL Central. Their 101 home runs sets a record pace, by a lot, but the most amazing number, mathematically at least, is their 300 runs scored. That computes, exactly, to an even 6 runs a game!
The instinctive tendency is to say, they can’t keep this up. Yes, every team and every player goes through slumps over the course of a season, and the Twins have been unusually injury-free. But countering both these inevitabilities is the way the Twins’ success has been achieved, with contributions coming almost equally across-the-board. There has been no Aaron Judge or Miguel Cabrera powering the attack. Everyone in the lineup has hit his share of home runs, even Jason Castro. It is a safe bet that eight players will end up with more than 20 homers and none will reach 40.
Similarly, there is no one position player whose loss would be devastating. This is largely because the three bench players – Marwin Gonzalez, Willians Astudillo and Ehire Adrianza – can play multiple positions and have already done so with great effectiveness, including catcher.
What’s fun is seeing who powers the offense in each game. Sometimes it will be the franchise cornerstones, Polanco and Rosario. Next game it will be the free-agent newbies, Cron and Schoop. Then Max Kepler will get hot or Adrianza will surprise. Finally, there are the former saviors-to-be, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, who finally appear on track to contributing more hits than strikeouts. There is no let-up in this lineup, especially once Mitch Garver returns to replace Castro behind the plate.
The excitement about the home runs has partially obscured another, perhaps more important, strength of the team: its pitching, especially its starters. Odorizzi, Berrios, Perez and Gibson give the Twins a chance to win every game they start, and Pineda may yet reach the same level. The bullpen is considered the one Twins weak spot, but with one blowout game after another and the starters going 6 or 7 innings every time, they haven’t been fully tested. So far, Blake Parker has been a serviceable closer and Taylor Rogers an unhittable setup man. Magill, Morin and May have all shown power arms, while Ryne Harper has been devilishly effective. How much more do you need? If Tyler Duffey can finally capitalize on his array of quality pitches, manager Baldelli should recognize that he doesn’t need to carry 13 pitchers, as he’s done much of the year, giving him room to keep his valuable bench once DH Nelson Cruz comes off the IL.
I see only two clouds on the horizon. When a surprise team is labeled a “team of destiny,” it is usually because they come from behind and keep finding ways to win close games. So far, when the Twins fall behind after the 5th inning, they usually lose. I don’t think they’ve had a walk-off win all year. It would be nice to see some of those, to give them confidence even when they don’t open up a six-run lead. Second, they still can’t seem to beat the Yankees, and if they get to the postseason, you know that’s who they will have to play. The Astros are tough, but Odorizzi’s 1-0 win over Verlander gives me hope in that matchup. Against the Yankees, that hasn’t happened. Yet.

An update after the Twins disappointingly split a four-game series with the lowly Detroit Tigers:
Both losses, by identical 5-3 scores, were the result of Trevor Hildenberger‘s giving up two runs in the inning he pitched. Instead of the lock-down reliever he was in the season’s first month – the dependable bridge to Taylor Rogers and Blake Parker – he has become the bullpen’s biggest liability, with an ERA over 6.00. It hurts me personally to see a player I’m so invested in fail so consistently, but I don’t know how manager Baldelli will be able to trust him again. Conversely, relievers Magill, Morin and Duffey were solid. Poor Tyler Duffey, who has been up and down to the minors like a yo-yo, struck out all three batters he faced in the 9th and was promptly returned to Rochester. He’s had success before but never been able to sustain it. The announcers, however, were surprised to see his fastball timed at 96, so maybe there is still a future for him. Especially if Hildenberger can’t recover.
Byron Buxton continues to surprise me by continuing to hit occasionally. He is still easy to strike out with low, outside sliders, but he is getting enough pitches over the plate and when he does he hits them hard, leading the league in doubles. If he goes 1 for 4, he will be a major upgrade over his past performance.
No one, however, hits the ball as consistently hard as C.J. Cron. He can’t hit a high fastball and will never hit for average, but is a genuine threat every at bat. Jonathan Schoop also has power for a number eight hitter, giving the Twins power up and down the lineup. He and Cron will both have plenty of 0-for-4 days in between breakout games when they power a win.
Marwin Gonzalez has emerged from the black hole I placed him in for the first month. I still consider him the Twin I least want to see at bat with the bases loaded and two outs, but he has risen above the Mendoza line and shown his value as a potential utility player.
Whether he will be relegated to that role depends upon the return of Miguel Sano to third base. So far, the results of his rehabilitation games in the minor leagues are discouraging: he has struck out three times for every hit, and nothing kills an attack like having a cleanup hitter striking out half the time. I trust that the Twins management sees this and is wise enough to leave him off the roster until he proves that his presence would be an upgrade over Gonzalez at third.
The Twins are clicking, but far from on all cylinders. Rosario and Kepler have experienced sustained slumps, while Adrianza and Cave have yet to show that they merit permanent roster spots.
This is the beauty of baseball, though. Every player can be analyzed every day; the season is long and everyone slumps. Nelson Cruz seemed to be the most consistent hitter on the Twins, until all of a sudden he became the weak link. You figure that the best team in the league will lose 62 games or more; so you can’t expect perfection every day.