Super Bowl ’22

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The Rams’ 23-20 win over the Bengals was basically a defensive showcase, with most plays going nowhere. There were, however, about ten plays that stood out and provided all the conversational fodder that was needed, and the game, as had the preceding six playoff contests, came down to the final two-minute drill.

The biggest single play, for me, was the stop by Aaron Donald when the Bengals had third-and-one on the 50-yard line with 30 seconds to play. He reached around a blocker and pulled the running back backward. The officials, in my view, also gave the Bengals a bad spot, but the runner would still have been short. If the Bengals had made the first down, they would have had three cracks at throwing at least a ten-yard pass to get in field goal range. Fourth-and-one was simply too desperate a situation and Donald’s coup de grace was no surprise.

The unwarranted defensive holding call on Logan Wilson, who had just spectacularly knocked down a pass to Cooper Kupp at the 2-yard line on third-and-goal was the next biggest play. To say that it compensated for the officials missing offensive interference on the Bengals’ second touchdown is fair, but in the moment it seemed more decisive. Had the Bengals not committed a helmet-to-helmet hit on the next play in the end zone, the Rams would have had 15 difficult yards instead of 1 to get their winning score. The simultaneous holding by the Rams affected the play in a way the personal foul did not, so they weren’t quite equal.

It’s too bad that an almost penalty-free game ended up with three consecutive penalties costing the Bengals in the final minute, as it inevitably leaves a sour taste in the mouths of Cincinnati fans and somewhat dilutes the greatness of Matthew Stafford’s final drive. But in a way it makes American football comparable to real football, what we call soccer, where fans almost expect a game to be decided by a referee’s call, often bad. That’s part of the game.

The other big plays were the Bengals’ failure to make a 4th-and-1 at midfield, leading to a Rams field goal; while the Rams, specifically Kupp, made their 4th-and-1 to keep the winning drive alive. Conversely, the Bengals one trick play, a halfback pass by Joe Mixon, succeeded, while the Rams’ version of the Philly Special, with Kupp passing to Stafford, failed laughably.

There was only one memorable offensive play all day: Jamari Chase’s one-handed grab of a 45-yard pass from Joe Burrow with Galen Ramsey draped over him. (Again, the officials inexplicably gave the Bengals a bad spot, about four yards further from the goal line, which may have contributed to their inability to convert a touchdown.) Rather, it was the defensive line play that stood out, for both teams. For me, the game ball should go to the Rams’ defensive line, with Aaron Donald in the lead.

Flores v. Goodell

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Some sports columnists are lauding ex-Dolphin coach Brian Flores for challenging the NFL for its dearth of Black head coaches, and commissioner Roger Goodell has said he finds it “completely unacceptable” that the roster of Black coaches has been reduced to one. Critics point out that 70% of the NFL players are Black, as if that requires that a larger percentage of coaches be Black, although no one is quite saying that percentage need by 70%. “Lack of diversity” in the head-coaching ranks is tossed about as a self-evident offense.
But in my view, “diversity” in this context is meaningless. Yes, if you have a company or a political body or a committee, it is valuable, even important, that diverse voices and backgrounds be included. The days of ten white males making decisions that affect others are, or should be, over. But the 32 NFL head coaches are not one body. They do not get together and make decisions. Each runs a separate organization. There should be diversity in their staffs, and there is; but that is within an organization. Each owner has the right, and the obligation, to choose the individual he thinks will do the best job running his team, without any consideration of what the other 31 owners are doing. The idea that any team should hire a Black coach because the other teams haven’t is absurd.

Contrast this with the “debate” over whether Biden should name a Black woman to the Supreme Court. Republicans, conveniently overlooking Clarence Thomas (and Amy Coney Barrett), are screaming that Biden must pick based on qualifications for the job, not because of someone’s gender or color. The Supreme Court, however, is precisely the venue where diversity, per se, matters. There is no “best person for the job.” There are hundreds, maybe thousands, of lawyers who are qualified and could handle the job (most third-year law students felt this way). What is important for the Supreme Court, once basic qualifications are established, is that its members reflect the society that will be impacted by its decisions. There are constituencies besides Black females that could claim they should be represented, but this is a good place to start. The over-representation of Catholics cuts the other way.

Flores claims that the “Rooney Rule,” the NFL’s rule that two minority candidates must be interviewed for any head coaching job, is a sham. I’m sure some teams treat it that way. But so what? The Rooney Rule has no legal force. The league can’t make any of its owners hire anyone. All it can do is make them take a look. If a Black coach thinks he is being used, he doesn’t have to agree to the interview. Some interview, somewhere along the line, may open some eyes. It’s better than nothing, which is what existed before. There is a discussion to be had as to why there are so many more white coaches, but that’s for another day and another place.

Baseball’s Future

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With the drumbeat for change louder and louder, and with the field of traditionalists shrinking more each year, it seems inevitable that changes, some major, will be made to the sport of baseball in order to increase fan interest and watchability by, among other things, speeding up the game. Indeed, in my youth a two-hour game was seen as the model, with most clocking in around 2:30. Now, anything under three hours is considered unusual, and four-hour marathons are not uncommon. Beyond length, the other common objection is lack of action, as batters try for home runs, pitchers for strikeouts, and fun things like triples, hit-and-runs, bunts and steals have become rarities. Not to be left out of the discussion, therefore, I herewith offer my suggestions, as a long-time traditionalist, of changes I would like to see to save, if not improve, our former national pastime.

1. Electronic Strike Zone. Keep the home plate umpire, but have balls and strikes called by an automatic ball-strike technology. Now that every TV broadcast shows whether and where a pitch actually crosses home plate, it is frustrating for the viewer, let alone the player, when the human umpire calls a bad pitch a strike, and vice versa. It detracts, rather than adds, enjoyment to watching the game.

2. Curtail Shifts. Require a team to keep two infielders on each side of 2nd base. I was hoping that players would end the unfortunate practice of overshifting simply by hitting to the opposite field, or even bunting, but Max Kepler insists on trying to hit a home run every at bat and seeing his average fall toward .200. To the extent that the shift takes away offense, which is its purpose, it takes fun away from the game.

3. Pitch Clock. Experts say this is the surest way to speed up a game, and certainly no one enjoys watching pitchers who dawdle and belabor every delivery. If, say, the pitcher has 20 seconds from receiving the ball to delivering the next pitch, the clock runs until the pitch is thrown, not just the windup or stretch. By eliminating the pitcher’s holding the ball for five seconds to throw off the baserunner’s timing, you will also get rid of the batter’s asking for time, stepping out and starting the whole thing over. A suggestion has been made to have a clock for the batter, as well, but I don’t think that’s necessary. If the pitcher has a 20-second clock, he should be allowed to throw the pitch any time after 15 seconds, regardless of whether the batter is ready.

4. No DH. I’m the last one to come around on this, having grown up a National League follower, but the pitcher’s time at the plate is generally the least interesting part of a game. It also disrupts the action around it, hurting the chances for the number eight hitter to get a good pitch and putting a crimp in one out of every three offensive innings.

5. Eliminate Replay for Oversliding. When a baserunner beats the tag at second or third but his foot separates from the base for a split second, instant replay will show if the fielder maintained the tag and the runner then gets called out. First, this is an injustice: if the runner beats the tag he should be awarded the base. Second, it discourages the safer feet-first slide and rewards the hands-first slide, which results in injuries and is a bad model for kids. Third, it slows the game as it leads to time-consuming instant replay review. Unlike the bang-bang play at first that gets reversed, there is no satisfaction here in “getting the call right.” It’s not a call that, before instant replay, was even a part of the game. My fix: allow replay only when the umpire has called the runner out, which would prevent injustice. If the umpire doesn’t detect any separation in real time, no replay.

Eddie Rosario

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Eddie Rosario’s three-run homer off Walker Buehler in the Braves’ clinching NLCS victory over the Dodgers was one of the greatest at-bats I’ve had the pleasure to witness. It reminded me of a classic home run by David Ortiz, the details of which I can’t recall, except that it was in an even more dramatic, climactic point of an even more important game. Both Rosario and Ortiz had the benefit of being charismatic, personal favorites of mine, and both, of course, were famously former members of the Minnesota Twins. I understood why the Twins let Rosario go after he regressed in 2020 from his peak season in 2019. He was maddeningly erratic in his performance: while he was often the Twins’ best clutch player, steadiness was not one of his virtues, and he would go from throwing out a baserunner to throwing to the wrong base. And he was a streaky hitter with little regard for the strike zone when he swung. Furthermore, the Twins had three young outfielders in the minors, at least one of whom could replace Rosario at a much lower salary. (While the play of Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach, when not injured, probably justified this decision, the subpar year of Max Kepler made one wish he had been jettisoned instead.)
Nevertheless, I enjoyed Rosario’s style of play and I was sorry that he showed little in the first half of 2021 when he played for the Indians, except to the extent I rooted against Cleveland as a Twins division rival. I hadn’t focused much on Rosario’s time with the Atlanta Braves until the playoffs began and he started getting game-winning hits. By the time he faced Buehler in the 4th inning of Game 6 Rosario had established himself as the hitting star of the NLCS. His hits had been timely and plentiful: with two 4-hit games he set a record, and with 13 hits he was one short of the single-series playoff record, which had been reached only in full seven-game series. The setting, albeit in only the 4th inning, was packed with early drama. The game was tied 1-1; runs had been in short supply all series; and both sides could believe that an early lead would be decisive.
The rally started with two outs. Buehler, the Dodger ace pitching on three-days’ rest, had light-hitting catcher Travis D’Arnaud 1-and-2. A strikeout for out three seemed to be in the cards. But D’Arnaud worked a walk, bringing up the pitcher’s spot. To the amazement of the TV announcers, manager Brian Snitker sent up a pinch-hitter for Braves pitcher Ian Anderson, one of their best pitchers who had been effective over three innings. The pinch-hitter was Ehire Adrianza, another former Twin. Not only was Snitker taking out one of his best pitchers, he was using his primary reserve–in only the 4th inning! With a slow runner on first and two outs, it hardly seemed much of a rally or decisive moment in the game. Yet somehow,  Adrianza, who had made outs in all his previous pinch-hitting appearances in the series, fisted a broken-bat double to rightfield. It was suddenly a moment of drama for Rosario, already 1-for-2 against Buehler.
The at-bat itself was full of drama. Rosario swung and missed at the first two pitches, sinking into an 0-and-2 hole. He fouled off the next offering from Buehler. He didn’t bite on an outside pitch. Then he fouled off two more pitches, barely staying alive. But you sensed, the more pitches he saw, the better chance he would have. With each pitch, the tension racheted up a notch. On Buehler’s seventh pitch, an inside fastball, Rosario turned and drove it down the rightfield line, inside the foul pole, a half-dozen rows into the stands.
There was one moment of drama still to come, when Luke Jackson gave up a single, walk and double to the only three Dodgers he faced in the seventh and Tyler Matzek had to strike out three in a row to maintain a two-run lead, but Rosario’s home run effectively decided the game and gave the National League pennant to the Braves.

Playoff Preview

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I’m looking forward to the Astros-Red Sox ALCS with pleasure, the Dodgers-Braves NLCS not so much. What a contrast in personalities and style of play. Both AL teams can flat-out hit, up and down their lineups, aided by the DH, too. Both NL teams had trouble scoring–and there weren’t a lot of dominant pitchers causing the problem. The Red Sox scored 26 runs in their three victories; the Dodgers’ 2-1 nailbiter last night was similarly emblematic. It may also be a gross generalization, but the NL squads seem unusually white, even whitebread. Any team featuring two Turners and a Taylor is pretty bland (or pretty Southern California) in this era. I don’t know a lot about the Braves, but their star is Freddie Freeman! By contrast, Boston, the last team to integrate, is led by Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Kike Hernandez. The Astros themselves could qualify for the Latin World Series, with Altuve, Gurriel, Correa. Alvarez. There’s a lot of attitude, enthusiasm and flair on both teams. And whereas playoffs often come down to a hot pitcher, that role has been diminished by managers who take their starters out at the slightest slump, even in the 2d or 3d inning.
So bring on the bats and let the games begin. And even if there is no play as exciting as Randy Arozarena’s straight steal of home for the Rays, I’m expecting highlights aplenty from the American Leaguers, and a bit of a snooze from the Nationals.

Yankees Lose

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The Yankees’ 2021 season came to a fittingly ignominious close with a convincing 6-2 trouncing by the Red Sox in the Wild Card Play-In game last night. I say “fitting,” because the punchless Yankees deserved no more after scoring only 7 runs in their final four “must-win” games and being outclassed by the Tampa Bay Rays, their potential playoff opponent, both in the last weekend and over the course of the season.
The Bombers’ offense came down to two home runs around Fenway’s Pesky Pole, neither of which would have gone out of any other Major League ballpark. On the other hand, Giancarlo Stanton hit two rockets off the Green Monster, both of which would have been home runs elsewhere. Their only “rally”–two hits in a row–started with another infield single by Aaron Judge. I say “another” sarcastically because Judge won the crucial season finale against the Rays with a ground ball to second that was officially scored a single, even though he would have been out by ten feet had the second baseman thrown to first. With one out and the game-winning run coming in from third, the infielder had no choice but to throw home instead. It was still a classic Fielder’s Choice for scoring purposes, not a hit, and I’m still awaiting an explanation.
Judge’s single was followed by what the commentators agreed was the key play of the game. (For me, however, the key play was Xander Bogaerts’ two-run homer in the 1st inning, which set the tone of the game.) Judge tried to score on Stanton’s double off the wall and was thrown out at home plate by a perfect relay from centerfielder Kike Hernandez to Bogaerts. Alex Rodriguez stated definitively that Judge should have been held at 3rd–indeed, he should have known on his own to stop there–and when the play-by-play announcer tried to suggest that the issue was debatable, A-Rod told him he was wrong. In my view, however, it was the right play. Judge was barely out, maybe by half a step. A less than perfect relay and he would have been safe. How many times is such a relay less than perfect? Way more than half, from my experience. Bogaerts had to field the ball cleanly (it came to him on one hop), turn and fire a strike under pressure. All Judge had to do was run. If Judge had stopped at 3rd, his fate would have been left to Joey Gallo, whom A-Rod had continually called the “safe landing strip” for Red Sox pitchers. In other words, they should steer clear of Judge and Stanton and pitch to Gallo whenever they had the choice. Based on his average, the chance that Gallo would get a hit was maybe one-in-five, and marginally better that he would somehow get the run home. As it was, he popped up to shortstop, and Judge would have been stuck at 3rd, unless the next batter hit safely–a one-in-four proposition, going by averages alone. The 50-50 chance, if not 65-35, that Judge had of scoring on Stanton’s double was greater than the odds of his scoring by stopping at 3rd. But A-Rod and the commentators who followed him all claimed that Yankee 3rd-base coach Phil Nevin had blundered.
The other happy takeaway for me was the failure of Gerrit Cole to last more than two innings in the Yankees’ most important game of the year. They paid him gazillions to be the best pitcher in the league, and he wasn’t. This gave me hope, once again, that you can’t always buy the pennant; that no matter how much the Yankees spend, they can be beaten. Conversely, the Red Sox got a dominant 1-2-3 8th inning from Hansel Robles, whom the Twins had picked up on the cheap and who was useless in Minnesota earlier this year. Go figure.

The Save

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Traditional baseball statistics are being devalued, as their relationship to actual player value is rightly questioned. A pitcher’s won-lost record is now regularly described as unimportant. One current example is the pitcher who pitches four shutout innings in a 7-inning doubleheader game but doesn’t qualify for a win, even though, percentage-wise, he has contributed more innings to his team’s victory that the pitcher who goes five innings in a 9-inning game.
I have previously criticized the rules for a “save” as being capricious and arbitrary, and Wednesday’s Twins win over the Cubs (9/22/21) provided a glaring example. Alex Colome, the Twins’ dubious closer, was brought on in the 9th to protect a 5-2 lead, the minimum margin eligible for a save. Before recording the third out (on a swinging strikeout in the dirt), he had given up a double, two singles, a walk and three stolen bases, but only two runs. For this less-than-stellar performance he was awarded a save. The three relievers before him gave up a total of one hit and no runs, but Colome got a save, not them.

Twins “Progress” Report

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August 21. The Twins’ brief spurt of encouraging wins against Houston, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Cleveland is giving way to the all-too-familiar collapse when facing the Yankees, which leads to a sober reassessment of not only where they are, but where they could be next year. In rereading my preseason predictions on this site, I see I shouldn’t be surprised at the Twins’ lack of success, although I was overoptimistic in hoping for a .500 record. I mentioned that Sano and Buxton’s seasons would be decisive, and my warnings about the former’s strikeouts and the latter’s injuries appear prescient. The other place I was slightly offbase was in my hope that some unexpected rookie would show up and make a difference.
It is this last disappointment that is so discouraging when thoughts turn to 2022. Since Memorial Day the Twins have been holding open auditions, first for their minor leaguers and more recently for players obtained when they traded Jose Berrios, Nelson Cruz and Hansel Robles. Garlick, Kiriloff, Rooker, Larnach, Refsnyder and Gordon have all been offered extended playing time in the outfield. Granted, tryouts for the first two were cut short by injury, but only Kiriloff gave any hint that he could become a force, and “hint” may be putting it strongly. For now, I see a lot of Bobby Kielty/Dustan Mohr, let alone Kepler/Rosario. That leaves the outfield in the hands of Buxton, who apparently will want a long-term contract that only a profligate franchise – i.e., the Yankees or Dodgers – will give him.
Any infield starts with a shortstop, and the Twins’ move to upgrade the position with Andrelton Simmons has failed. Not only is he hitting like a #9 batter, his errors have led to losses and the Twins’ record as the worst defensive team in the league. He will be gone next year but, alas, not Josh Donaldson, who has the most expensive free-agent contract in Minnesota history. He has been playing hurt all year, and his history and muscle-bound body suggests this will not be unusual. The Twins are slow enough as a team without a 3B/DH who has to jog to first and needs a pinch-runner in a close game. The Twins aren’t without options at 3rd–Arraez and minor leaguer Jose Miranda come to mind–but they seem stuck with Donaldson. Arraez is their best and only .300 hitter, but Jorge Polanco, the team’s best clutch hitter, is set at 2B for now. Miguel Sano is a liability at 1B and on the basepaths, but he is a game-changer when his bat is hot. Unfortunately he is a black hole in the middle of the lineup 3/4ths of the time, and his future is behind him.
At catcher, Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers can both put up decent power numbers, but they are overmatched by quality pitching. Neither has shown any growth potential, which brings me to Max Kepler. He looked like a cornerstone of the franchise: a good outfielder, the best base stealer after Buxton, with an uncanny ability to open games with a leadoff home run. On the other hand, he strikes out too much, hits too many balls into the shift and this year is barely hitting above .200. Instead of getting better each year of his multi-year contract, he is shrinking. Regardless of pitching, if the Twins mounted a consistent offense they could be fun to watch. Instead, too many games this year have featured double-digit strikeouts.
As for the pitchers, they can’t overcome a lack of offense, but they do offer a scintilla of hope. Before the All-Star Game I had never heard of Bailey Ober or Griffin Jax, yet both seem to be capable Major League pitchers with room to grow. Charlie Barnes has had a couple good outings, if there’s room in baseball anymore for a crafty lefty. Kenta Maeda, before he got hurt today, looked like a dependable anchor. Silver medalist Joe Ryan, from the Rays, could be the real thing. And there must be a reason Randy Dobnak got a long-term deal. Relief pitchers can come from anywhere and have a good year, and the Twins’ reliance on Alex Colome and Hansel Robles shows, once again, that past performance by a reliever is no guarantee of future success.  The Twins are auditioning a half-dozen new relievers now that winning games doesn’t quite matter. If three stick, Taylor Rogers comes back and they can add one or two more, this area shouldn’t be an issue–and irrelevant if they can’t get a lead.
You like to see new prospects show up each year to give you hope for development and possible future stardom. By this measure, it must be fun to be a White Sox fan these days. For a Twins fan, not so much.

The Sano-Buxton Quandary

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Ever since they appeared on Sports Illustrated’s cover in 2013, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton have been linked as the future of the Minnesota Twins. Buxton had been rated the top high-school prospect in the country, the ultimate five-tool player, and the powerful Sano had been featured in a documentary, Pelotero, about the grooming and scouting of prospects in the Dominican Republic. Their potential seemed unlimited. Eight years later, we are still talking of their potential.
Sano broke on the scene with more early success, finishing third in Rookie-of-the-Year voting despite playing only the second half of the 2015 season and making the All-Star team in 2017. Since that game his arc has gone down, not up. He has shown up for camp overweight, appeared uninterested and uncoachable, been injured and led the Majors in strikeouts in 2020. Although he came up as a shortstop, the Twins have tried him at third, rightfield and first base, while showing evidence that his best position would be DH. Buxton, by contrast, has been glorious in centerfield, even winning the Platinum Glove as the league’s top defensive player in 2017, the only year he has played more than 100 games. And that last fact is the rub. From broken tooth to broken pinkie to injured shoulder to injured hip to concussion to whatever, Buxton has been out as much as he’s been in. Until this year he was also a strikeout machine: his 30% K-rate was well below Sano’s 37% over their careers, but both were frequent black holes in the lineup. (For comparison, Max Kepler, no more a contact hitter, has an 18% strikeout rate; Jorge Polanco is 16%, and Luis Arraez is 9%.) Sano will drive you crazy by missing the same pitch, an outside slider, by a foot, while Buxton had the unappetizing habit of staring back at the pitcher as he returned to the dugout after his whiff. More frustrations: if Buxton would only learn to bunt he could raise his batting average by 20 points. Sano could do the same by hitting to all fields, instead of trying to pull every pitch into the upper deck in left.
For all the reasons above, Twins fans on the Strib blog have been screaming for years to trade either Buxton or Sano, or preferably both. That won’t happen, if only because of the risk, shown in letting go David Ortiz a while back, of either blossoming into a superstar elsewhere. But by keeping Buxton and Sano, the Twins are stuck with 2/9ths of a lineup that stubbornly refuses to reach its potential. By relying on Buxton, the Twins find themselves playing Major League games with Gilbert Celestino, at best a AA player, starting in center. By using Sano at first base, they are slowing the development of Nick Kiriloff, their most promising rookie. At DH he would be sidelining Nelson Cruz, their best hitter, and at third base he would take the place of Josh Donaldson, their highest-paid player. On the other hand, Sano has won more games for the Twins this year with his home runs than anyone else on the team. Of course, even with that contribution, the Twins haven’t won that many games. Unlike Sano, Buxton appears to have turned a corner at the plate this year: his strikeouts are down, his home runs are up, and his confidence level is obviously higher. In years past, Sano and Buxton were both mistake-hitters and bad-ball swingers. This year, Buxton is no longer always in an 0-2 count and has shown variety in his hits, albeit still without bunts.
So, the Twins are faced with a dilemma. If they keep Buxton and Sano, there’s a good chance neither will ever get better, and between Sano’s strikeouts and Buxton’s injuries the Twins will be weighed down with their big contracts and an increasingly tepid fan base. When you play rookies, fans can at least project and dream; when you watch Sano flail at pitches with the bases loaded you get dejected. But if you let them go, and either has the season that was projected for them in 2013, what will that reaction be? I’d say the Twins front office has about a 25% chance of getting this right, and I’m glad it’s not my decision.

PS: In November the Twins signed Buxton to a 7-year, $100 million contract, with incentives for performance. This strikes me as a good deal. As mentioned, they had to keep him and this contract doesn’t break the bank. If he turns into a superstar, it will be a bargain.

Season Preview

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It’s hard to be too hopeful about the Twins’ 2021 season, because it’s hard to see where they have improved over the last two years. In fairness, though, it should be noted that the Twins have won more games in those two years than anyone else in the American League, so the bar is relatively high. That said, there are two big changes in the opening day lineup. Gone is leftfielder Eddie Rosario, their RBI and outfield-assist leader. Replacing him for now is Jake Cave, who could never crack the starting lineup on his own or even stay on the major league roster, despite receiving numerous chances. Infield defense has improved with the addition of shortstop Andrelton Simmons, moving Jorge Polanco to second base. On the flip side, this removes the Twins’ best hitter for average, Luis Arraez, from the everyday lineup.
Once again, the Twins’ hopes are resting largely on the two potential superstars, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. But how long have we been waiting on their potential – five years, maybe? Is there a reason to think that this will be the year that Buxton doesn’t get hurt and learns to hit to all fields and maybe even bunt and that Sano won’t again lead the league in strikeouts? There’s no evidence of this from spring training. Unless there’s a dramatic development, Buxton and Sano will continue to demonstrate bursts of brilliance but long stretches of being black holes in the lineup.
There are other causes of worry. Max Kepler is another case of potential unfulfilled. Every year he has a hot streak or two but has yet to achieve the kind of consistency the Twins expected when giving him a multiyear contract. That he got only three measly hits in all spring training does not augur well. Mitch Garver hit with surprising power in 2019 but was a bust in 2020. Which is the real him? And the Twins MVP, Nelson Cruz,will be 41 years old. At what point does age catch up to him? One always hopes there are young players on the rise who will provide an unexpected boost, but the Twins tried out their top prospects this spring–Alex Kiriloff and Brent Rooker, in particular–and none made the team.
The one area where the Twins are improved is their bench. Arraez and Willians Astudillo excel at putting the ball in play, Ryan Jeffers will give Garver competition at catcher and Kyle Garlick led the team in spring training homers. If he doesn’t deliver, they have Kiriloff, Rooker and Keon Broxton waiting in the wings.

One hopes that spring training statistics for the offense are meaningless; I mean, how could a team average fewer than 4 hits a game for a regular season? On the other hand, one would like to think that the pitchers in spring training gave a credible preview of what to expect beginning tomorrow. Kenta Maeda, coming off an almost-Cy Young season, was dominant, allowing one run all spring. Jose Berrios, as usual, was occasionally dominant. Randy Dobnak was just as good as he was the first half of last year and is ready to be slotted into the rotation should either newcomer, J.A. Happ or Matt Shoemaker, falter. The relievers have yet to sort out. Taylor Rogers was a lock-down closer a year ago but hasn’t had the same success recently. Alex Colome was a successful closer with the White Sox and will try for the same, but at age 32 a reliever is an uncertainty. I loved Tyler Duffey last year, but he had a tough spring. In addition to the uncertainties on the roster, there are several relievers who pitched well in spring training who are starting out in St. Paul and will undoubtedly be given shots as the season goes on.
If I had to make a prediction, I’d give the Twins a .500 record, or slightly above, if only because they will play most of their games against Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland, who are no great shakes. The White Sox, under Tony LaRussa, should win the division.  The question already in my mind is, what will the Twins management do at the end of the year, if not before, if any or all of Kepler, Buxton, Sano, and Polanco underperform their contracts. Do they cut their losses and start a rebuild or wait yet another year for potential?